Opinion: Ruto’s run for 2022 seems like a sideshow!

I hate to say it, but I got too. Because someone has to show some common sense. As the headlines, as the media houses and seemingly social media is speaking up about the possible 2022 Run for the Deputy President William Ruto of the Jubilee Party as the succession of President Uhuru Kenyatta.

Why I hate to say this, is because his is all a side-show. This is so people forget the grand-corruption, the defaulting loans and the growing rate of repaying interests on old loans. That is what the state has created, while ensuring the public is eating up everything happening with side-chicks of celebrities and Githeri Man.

That is why the DP run for 2022 is so important in the end of 2018 before the start of 2019. That is three years ahead of the coming elections. As the election of 2017 is still fresh. The Election rigging, will not change if the DP would be the top of the ticket. He would order the same deal as his boss did. I wrote myself, that he was the “winner” after the Handshake. As he got a free-way to 2022 in March 2018. But, that this is taking over the headlines now, shows that the media is all about preparing him as the NEXT, already now.

We are now long ahead, we all know this. That isn’t an understatement. That DP Ruto is a hustler and savvy is all but viable. That he has enriched himself and his associates. This is well-known. Ruto know this and he wouldn’t have gained wealth without his position or his political position. We all have seen that, as he went from being a poor wandering pastor into the hyper-wealthy, owning businesses, hotels and media houses. While being a politician. We have all seen that over time. Therefore, don’t be shocked if he want to step up to another level.

However, the 2022 is a sideshow at this point. 2022 run of DP Ruto is just a play to forget the challenges of today. It is way to create “in-fighting” and “in-security” so that people forget the scandals, the mismanagement and the lacking development delivered by the government. As the President can do now and then, some PR stunts, but not really delivering the Big Four Agenda or anything substantial, as they are busy eating. While people are fooling themselves with an imaginary run of Ruto.

That is how it looks today for me, I might be terribly wrong. But if there was ever a need of pawn, of a something stealing the headlines, as a preparation of the future. This would be it, as they are playing people for fools, awaiting something that is possible, but no one really knows. We cannot know who will follow the leadership now. If it is another family dynasty or if it is someone who is made to be.

DP Ruto would be weird if he didn’t have the ambition to takeover for Kenyatta. However, it is not all him. It is also up to the negotiations within the Jubilee. They all have to decide and made a decisions together. Ruto has to pay-up and secure loyalty. We just have to see.

But at this moment, that is a long-con. A real long-con, an uncertain future and not even close to Primaries before a General Election of 2022. It should be a discussion closer to that point. Right now, its too early.

Ruto is either playing around, either as a pawn himself, checking the waters and if he can build bridges. If not, the Jubilee is using this to takeover the media houses and talks, so they are not focused on the grand corruption, scandals or graft. Peace.

Communiqué of the Consultative Meeting of IGAD Member States on the Current Drought Situation in the Region (31.03.2017)

IGAD: Nairobi Declaration on Durable Solutions for Somali Refugees and Reintegration of Returnees in Somalia (25.03.2017)

 

Statement of IGAD Council of Ministers’ Consultation on the Current Situation in the Region (17.03.2017)

World Bank Group President Calls for Urgent Action on Hunger Crisis (08.03.2017)

WASHINGTON, March 8, 2017—World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim today issued the following statement on the devastating levels of food insecurity in sub-Saharan Africa and Yemen:

“Famine is a stain on our collective conscience. Millions of lives are at risk and more will die if we do not act quickly and decisively.

We at the World Bank Group stand in solidarity with the people now threatened by famine. We are mobilizing an immediate response for Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan, and Yemen. Our first priority is to work with partners to make sure that families have access to food and water. We are working toward a financial package of more than $1.6 billion to build social protection systems, strengthen community resilience, and maintain service delivery to the most vulnerable. This includes existing operations of over $870 million that will help communities threatened by famine. I am also working with our Board of Directors to secure the approval of new operations amounting to $770 million, funded substantially through IDA’s Crisis Response Window.

The World Bank Group will help respond to the immediate needs of the current famine, but we must recognize that famine will have lasting impacts on people’s health, ability to learn, and earn a living. So we will also continue to work with communities to reclaim their livelihoods and build resilience to future shocks.

We are coordinating closely with the UN and other partners in all areas of our response. We know that resolution to this acute crisis will not be possible without all humanitarian and development actors working together. We call on the international community to respond robustly and quickly to the UN global appeal for resources for the famine.

To prevent crises in the future, we must invest in addressing the root causes and drivers of fragility today and help countries build institutional and societal resilience.”

Background

A famine means that a significant part of the population has no access to basic food, suffers from severe malnutrition, and death from hunger reaches unprecedented levels. Children under five are disproportionately affected. A famine can affect the well-being of a whole generation. Famine was officially declared on February 20 in South Sudan, impacting approximately 100,000 people, and there is a credible risk of other famines in Yemen, Northeast Nigeria, and other countries. Ongoing conflicts and civil insecurity are further intensifying the food insecurity of millions of people across the region, and there is already widespread displacement and other cross-border spillovers. For instance, food insecurity in Somalia and famine in South Sudan are accelerating the flow of refugees into Ethiopia and Uganda. The UN estimates that about 20 million people in Nigeria, South Sudan, Somalia and Yemen are on the “tipping point” of famine. Drought conditions also extend to Uganda and parts of Tanzania. The last famine was declared in 2011 in Somalia during which 260,000 people died.

Statement by the IGAD Executive Secretary on the current drought in the Greater Horn of Africa (08.02.2017)

The Drought Situation

The Horn of Africa is in the midst of a major drought resulting from La Niña and reduced moisture influx due to the cooling of the ocean water in the east African coast. Whilst Member States of the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) are adept at managing droughts, what makes the current drought alarming in the Equatorial Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region is that it follows two consecutive poor rainfall seasons in 2016 and the likelihood of depressed rainfall persisting into the March – May 2017 rainfall season remains high. The most affected areas include, most of Somalia, South-eastern Ethiopia, Northern Eastern and coastal Kenya, and Northern Uganda.

The climate predictions and early warnings produced by IGAD through advanced scientific modeling and prediction tools, which were provided to Member States and the general public, have elicited early actions (preparedness and mitigation measures). Highly comparable to the 2010 GHA drought, the current depressed rainfall and resultant poor vegetation conditions since March 2016 eroded the coping and adaptive capacities of the affected people. It also depleted water points, reduced crops, forages and livestock production, increased food insecurity, and adversely affected the livelihoods of vulnerable communities in the region.

The number of food insecure human population in the region is currently estimated at 17 million. Certain areas in South Sudan and Djibouti are already under an emergency food insecurity phase, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) classification scale. In Somalia, the number of food insecure people doubled in the last year alone.

In the drought affected cropping lands (over Deyr area in Somalia and coastal Kenya), 70 to 100 percent crop failure has been registered. Livestock mortality has been particularly devastating amongst small ruminants with mortality rate ranging from 25 to 75 percent in the cross border areas of Somalia-Kenya-Ethiopia. In addition, livestock prices have dropped by as much as 700 percent.

Terms of trade have declined in the region, with Ethiopia registering a figure of almost 10 percent. This is exacerbated by a substantial negative impact on external balances, as well as a small impact on financial sector-soundness in the other countries. The overall impact on fiscal positions is a likely increase in current budget spending and deterioration in the fiscal balance and weak adaptation capacity.

Despite the downtrend in global agriculture commodity prices, the drought has resulted in an increase in domestic food prices in the region. Cereal prices (e.g. maize) have gone up by about 130 percent, while those of critical food items such as oils, beans and wheat flour increased by at least 50 percent in some pastoralist areas. The limited financial and institutional capacity for effective adaptation to reduce exposure and vulnerability will result in limited safety net to the most vulnerable households.

Drought Response in the Horn of Africa

With the early warning and technical assistance provided by IGAD, Member States have initiated early action to mitigate the adverse impact of the current drought.

Somalia and South Sudan have declared drought emergencies. Kenya announced a doubling of expenditure on food relief to ease the pressure in the drought-affected counties, while Uganda shifted some of its development resources to finance emergency response in order to address food insecurity and livelihood protection. In Somalia, the President of the Federal Republic, as well as state and regional administrations led the issuance of appeals for support and coordinated actors and efforts that scaled-up food security activities to respond to the humanitarian needs of the country.

The USD 730 million allocated by the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia boosted the response effort which, coupled by an above-average meher harvest, resulted to an almost 50 percent reduction in the number of food insecure people, for example, from 10.2 million to 5.6 million.

IGAD continues to reinforce the actions of its Member States using them as guide for complementary action on drought responses. Below are some of the major actions being undertaken by the IGAD Secretariat and its specialized institutions to manage the drought in the region:

• Through its specialized institutions, IGAD continues to monitor and provide analysis of the evolving situation and advise Member States and the general public on measures to mitigate its impact. The 45th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 45), which ends today in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, will present the consensus climate outlook for the next season (March – May 2017) and its likely impact on disaster risk management, livestock production, water, energy and health etc.
• A multi- humanitarian coordination mechanism led by IGAD that includes UN agencies, Civil Society Organizations (CSOs), and other Non-State Actors (NSAs) is effectively working to coordinate the response effort, as well as guide the recovery process once the situation stabilizes.
• IGAD is also working with relevant national authorities, UN agencies and CSOs in each member state on the development of an Integrated Regional Appeal that will articulate the priority initiatives within the response plan for each Member State.
• Furthermore, IGAD will support institutional arrangements and capacity building that needs to be in place to allow humanitarian response plans to be implemented in timely, effective manner.
• A regional Ministerial Meeting will be convened by IGAD at the end of this month to launch the Integrated Regional Appeal and secure financial resources, which further complements the response undertaken by national authorities and humanitarian and development partners, while at the same time building resilience to climate-induced disasters.

Through the IGAD Drought Disaster Resilience and Sustainability Initiative (IDDRSI) Platform, the ultimate purpose and objective of IGAD and its Member States is to mitigate the adverse effects of disasters through building resilience of relevant national institutions, communities and people, to end drought emergencies and contribute to the achievement of sustainable development in the region.

In this regard, IGAD will remain vigilant in monitoring and advising the people of the region on the drought situation through its’ specialized institution, the IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC) domiciled in Nairobi, and shall continue to support and complement regional and national actions on drought response and recovery.

With continued drought, Horn of Africa braces for another hunger season (20.12.2016)

Agricultural support critical now to protect livestock, equip families to plant in rainy season.

ROME, Italy, December 20, 2016 – Countries in the Horn of Africa are likely to see a rise in hunger and further decline of local livelihoods in the coming months, as farming families struggle with the knock-on effects of multiple droughts that hit the region this year, FAO warned today. Growing numbers of refugees in East Africa, meanwhile, are expected to place even more burden on already strained food and nutrition security.

Currently, close to 12 million people across Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia are in need of food assistance, as families in the region face limited access to food and income, together with rising debt, low cereal and seed stocks, and low milk and meat production. Terms of trade are particularly bad for livestock farmers, as food prices are increasing at the same time that market prices for livestock are low.

Farmers in the region need urgent support to recover from consecutive lost harvests and to keep their breeding livestock healthy and productive at a time that pastures are the driest in years. Production outputs in the three countries are grim.

Rapid intervention

“We’re dealing with a cyclical phenomenon in the Horn of Africa,” said Dominique Burgeon, Director of FAO’s Emergency and Rehabilitation Division. “But we also know from experience that timely support to farming families can significantly boost their ability to withstand the impacts of these droughts and soften the blow to their livelihoods,” he stressed.

For this reason, FAO has already begun disbursing emergency funds for rapid interventions in Kenya and Somalia.

The funds will support emergency feed and vaccinations for breeding and weak animals, repairs of water points, and seeds and tools to plant in the spring season. FAO is also working with local officials to bolster countries’ emergency preparedness across the region.

“Especially in those areas where we know natural hazards are recurring, working with the Government to further build-up their ability to mitigate future shocks is a smart intervention that can significantly reduce the need for humanitarian and food aid further down the line,” Burgeon said.

Kenya is highly likely to see another drought in early 2017, and with it a rise in food insecurity. Current estimates show some 1.3 million people are food insecure.

Based on the latest predictions, the impacts of the current drought in the southern part of the country will lessen by mid-2017, but counties in the North – in particular Turkana, Marsabit, Wajir and Mandera – will steadily get worse.

Families in these areas are heavily dependent on livestock. Now, with their livelihoods already stressed – the last reliable rain they received was in December 2015- they will get little relief from the October-December short rains, which typically mark a recovery period but once again fell short this season.

In the affected counties, the terms of trade have become increasingly unfavourable for livestock keepers, as prices of staple foods are rising, while a flood of weakened sheep, goats and cows onto local markets has brought down livestock prices.

To ensure livestock markets remain functional throughout the dry season in 2017, FAO, is training local officials in better managing livestock markets — in addition to providing feed, water and veterinary support.

After two poor rainy seasons this year, Somalia is in a countrywide state of drought emergency, ranging from moderate to extreme. As a result, the Gu cereal harvest – from April to June – was 50 percent below average, and prospects for the October-December Deyr season are very grim.

To make matters worse, the country’s driest season – the Jilaal that begins in January- is expected to be even harsher than usual, which means Somali famers are unlikely to get a break anytime soon.

All indications are that crop farmers are already facing a second consecutive season with poor harvest. Pastoralists, meanwhile, are struggling to provide food for both their families and livestock, as pasture and water for grazing their animals are becoming poorer and scarcer by the day – in the south, pasture availability is the lowest it has been in the past five years.

Some five million Somalis are food insecure through December 2016. This includes 1.1 million people in Crisis and Emergency conditions of food insecurity (Phases 3 and 4 on the five-tier IPC scale used by humanitarian agencies). This is a 20 percent increase in just six months.

The latest analysis forecasts that the number of people in Crisis and Emergency conditions of food insecurity may further rise by more than a quarter of a million people between February and May 2017. Similar conditions in 2011 have resulted in famine and loss of lives, and therefore early action is urgently needed to avoid a repeat.

FAO calls on resource partners to urgently scale up assistance in rural areas, in the form of cash relief, emergency livestock support and agricultural inputs to plant in the April Gu season.

If farmers cannot plant during Gu – which traditionally produces 60 percent of the country’s annual cereal output — they will be left without another major harvest until 2018.

Farming families in Ethiopia, meanwhile, are extremely vulnerable as they have not been able to recover from the 2015 El Nino-induced drought. Some 5.6 million people remain food insecure, while millions more depend on livestock herds that need to be protected and treated to improve milk and meat production. Here, too, better access to feed and water is critical.

The crop situation is relatively stable after the country completed the most widespread emergency seed distribution in Ethiopia’s history. FAO and more than 25 NGOs and agencies reached 1.5 million households with drought-resistant seeds.

As a result of enabling farming families to grow their own food, the government and humanitarian community saved close to $1 billion in emergency aid, underlining that investing in farmers is not only the right thing to do but also the most cost-efficient.

FAO’s Early Warning early action work

Somalia and Kenya are among the first countries benefiting from FAO’s new Early Warning Early Action Fund (EWEA). The fund ensures quick activation of emergency plans when there is a high likelihood of a disaster that would affect agriculture and people’s food and nutrition security.

The fund will be part of a larger Early Warning Early Action System that tracks climate data and earth imaging to determine what areas are at risk of an imminent shock and will benefit from early intervention.

Kenya – Worsening drought in Mandera and Samburu (23.11.2016)

• Drought conditions are deteriorating particularly in northern Kenya. Around 1.3 million people are reportedly food insecure.
• Food security is expected to shift from stressed (phase 2 of the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification/IPC) to crisis level (IPC phase 3) for pastoral areas in early 2017. Global acute malnutrition is expected to remain critical, with rates above emergency thresholds.
• The government of Kenya announced an allocation of 5.4 billion Kenyan shillings (nearly EUR 50 million) to mitigate the effects of the drought.
• DG ECHO partner organisation Acted launched an emergency appeal for USD 2.6 million for immediate life-saving support to drought-affected communities in the districts of Mandera and Samburu.

Kenya: Joint Press Briefing – Drought and Food Security situation in ASAL Counties (16.10.2016)

Kenya: Press Statement addressing Budgetary Allocation in Counties (14.10.2016)

Members of the Press,
Citizens of Kenya,
We address you today after recent coverage in the dailies portraying counties to be misusing funds allocated to them. County Governments have achieved much since the inception of the devolved system of governance and each county can readily demonstrate what they have achieved in each sector.
In line with this, the Council of Governors would like to clarify some things and the set the record straight.
ACCESS TO OVERDRAFT FACILITIES
• Counties are now able to access overdrafts from the Central bank for operations at 5% of the latest audited revenue and to be repaid within a year.
• The Central Bank of Kenya is in the process of preparing guideline since they have clearance from the Attorney General on the interpretation of the law in line with Article 212(b) of the Constitution of Kenya 2010 and Sec 140(1) of the PFM Act 2012.
• The borrowing will cushion Counties financial constraints necessitated by delay in disbursement of the equitable share from the National Treasury.

UTILIZATION OF FUNDS BY COUNTY GOVERNMENTS
• According to the Controller of Budgets report for the past nine months, County Governments spent Kshs.7.15 billion on domestic and foreign travel of which Kshs.2.9Billion by the County Assembly and Kshs.4.115 Billion by the County Executive.
• The National Government Ministries and departments spent Kshs.8.023Billion in the same period of which Kshs.2.6Billion was spent by the National Assembly.
• The report further indicates that the National Government spent Kshs.107.862Billion being 26.9% of the total recurrent expenditure (Kshs.400.33Billion) on other unclassified expenditure.

WHAT DEVOLUTION HAS DONE FOR THE PEOPLE OF KENYA
• Since the advent of devolution, there is evidence to show that the people of Kenya have experienced a lot of positive change especially in service delivery. Health services are more accessible in the rural areas and more affordable. In 2012, there were 8,466 health centers and dispensaries, currently the numbers stand at 10,032 health facilities.
• Counties have employed more health care personnel. In 2013 there were 874 doctors and 6,620 nurses, the statics today stand at 1,302 doctors and 8,903 nurses in the county health facilities.
• Infant mortality rate has dropped to 39% per every 1000 live births as opposed 62% per every 1000 live births before devolution.
• In Agriculture there has been an increase in crop and livestock production. 132 Value addition projects have been instituted in 34 Counties; 1,021 greenhouses installed in 36 Counties; and 911 cattle dips have been constructed and rehabilitated in 28 Counties.
• 541,627 farmers have access to extension services with the aim of improving productivity.
• Counties have witnessed a 20% increase in enrollment of students in the ECD centers. In 2013, the ECD enrollment stood at 1,691,286, today it stands at 2,074,060. Additionally, 30,049 teachers and assistants have been recruited to cater for the increased enrollment.
• County Governments have refurbished over 598 centers, built over 5,951 ECD centers and equipped them with desks in a bid to ensuring that pre-school children learn in a conducive environment.
• Counties have embraced innovative and advanced technologies like the Pro-base road construction technology which is cost effective, durable and easy to maintain. Between 2013 and 2016, County Governments have tarmacked 379 kilometers of road and constructed 35,934 kilometers of all-weather road. Furthermore, 19,148 kilometers of new roads have been opened up and 9,572 kilometers of road rehabilitated.
• In trade, new markets for locals have been constructed to facilitate trade in the counties. The numbers of markets have grown from 362 markets to 651 markets.
• In 2013, there were 1,396 cooperatives which have since grown to 1,806 cooperatives with a turnover of KES 56 billion. The Cooperative societies in Kenya are now employing more than 300,000 people besides providing opportunities for self-employment to many more.