Opinion: Museveni will not respect the South Sudanese Arms Embargo!

It is a noble idea to have an Arms Embargo in South Sudan, as the civil war and the never-ending negotiations of peace is continuing, even as the Khartoum Declaration and Outstanding Issues are working in tandem, even as the IGAD High Level Revitalization Forum have sort of failed and only given the republic empty promises. As the partners haven’t agreed totally or even respected the cease-fire starting on the 1^st July 2018. There still been skirmishes and attacks, which wasn’t supposed to appear.

With this in mind the negotiation and peace dialogue in Entebbe haven’t been fruitful or delivered. In this spirit it isn’t weird, as he has been a starch supporter of President Salva Kiir Mayardit and the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU). That has been proven in the past, latest in February, when he promised to serve weapons to Kiir, even if there was imposed an embargo. Therefore, his words yesterday are important. Also show the provisions of the Arms Embargo in the end.

In February 2018:

“I want to you tell this, and whether you believe it or not, the government will never fail to acquire weapons by any means. What the foreign countries, including the United States of America, are doing is a pursuit of regime change which nobody will entertain even in America,” said a presidential aide asked what actually was the message Ugandan envoy had delivered. “Nobody will accept that a democratically elected government be changed through the force or by an imposed agreement,” he further told Sudan Tribune on condition of anonymity” (…) “President Museveni is indeed a friend of the people of South Sudan. He sent the special message for two purposes. One, he assured his excellency, General Salva Kiir Mayardit of the support of the people and the government of the Republic of Uganda to the people and the Republic of South Sudan. His Excellency President Museveni gave the assurance of highest support in this situation. Two, in case of sanctions, the government of Uganda would do its best to ensure all weapons and associated services destined to South Sudan are facilitated,” he said” (Sudan Tribune, 2018).

In July 2018:

“Museveni told the United Kingdom minister for armed forces Col. Mark Lancaster that an arms embargo will not help in the peace process. “Mr Museveni told his guests that imposing sanctions on South Sudan will not help in finding a solution to that country’s challenges adding that observation of ceasefire by the warring groups, security reform and working to have elections, among others, will help the country move towards peace,” Museveni told Col. Lancaster, according to a statement released by Uganda State House.

United Nations Arms Embargo:

“Arms Embargo “4. Decides that, until 31 May 2019, all Member States shall immediately take the necessary measures to prevent the direct or indirect supply, sale or transfer to the territory of South Sudan from or through their territories or by their nationals, or using their flag vessels or aircraft, of arms and related materiel of all types, including weapons and ammunition, military vehicles and equipment, paramilitary equipment, and spare parts for the aforementioned; and technical assistance, training, financial or other assistance, related to military activities or the provision, maintenance or use of any arms and related materiel, including the provision of armed mercenary personnel whether or not originating in their territories;” (…) “8. Calls upon all Member States, in particular States neighbouring South Sudan, to inspect, in accordance with their national authorities and legislation and consistent with international law, in particular the law of the sea and relevant international civil aviation agreements, all cargo to South Sudan, in their territory, including seaports and airports, if the State concerned has information that provides reasonable grounds to believe the cargo contains items the supply, sale, or transfer of which is prohibited by paragraph 4 of this resolution for the purpose of ensuring strict implementation of these provisions” (…) “9. Decides to authorize all Member States to, and that all Member States shall, upon discovery of items the supply, sale, or transfer of which is prohibited by paragraph 4 of this resolution, seize and dispose (such as through destruction, rendering inoperable, storage or transferring to a State other than the originating or destination States for disposal) of such items, and decides further that all Member States shall cooperate in such efforts” (UNSC, 2018).

As you have seen, President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni has promised arms, even if there is an embargo and he will secure weapons for the conflict. That is how he is, he doesn’t care about the conflict or the innocent lives taken by it. He is the war-lord earning fortunes on the trade of arms and being a beacon in the midst of the conflict. It is a win-win, he get to sell weapons and be part of the peace-process. Which I find amazing.

That the African Union and East African Community is using Museveni is boggling me, when he has no trouble offering weapons and arms to the TGoNU and Kiir government. So, when he is such a partner to the Juba Administration, while it is negotiations and having dialogue with the rebels and other outfits. It doesn’t make sense.

He will not follow the Arms Embargo, as he has promised to help Kiir. Therefore, the UN shouldn’t just call upon, they should also sanction them for trading arms with South Sudan. That is why the Embargo has little value, as long as the Ugandan government are friendly and will do business with the TGoNU. They will serve the needs and sell to earn big-business in Juba on the arms-trade.

Museveni doesn’t fear the UN or the Member States, they are in his favor with refugees and peacekeepers elsewhere. So, if he breaks Arms Embargo and sanctions, he know he won’t get scrutinized or even pay for violations. That is why he will do it too. Peace.

Reference:

South Sudan News Agency – ‘Ugandan President asks UN to drop South Sudan arms embargo’ 14.07.2018 link: http://southsudannewsagency.org/index.php/2018/07/14/ugandan-president-asks-un-to-drop-south-sudan-arms-embargo/

Sudan Tribune – ‘Museveni tells South Sudan not to worry from U.S. sanctions’ (11.02.2018) link: http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article64703

United Nations Security Council (UNSC) – ‘Adopting Resolution 2428 (2018), Security Council Extends Sanctions on South Sudan’ 13.07.2018 link: https://reliefweb.int/report/south-sudan/adopting-resolution-2428-2018-security-council-extends-sanctions-south-sudan

South Sudan: Gen. Paul Malong Awan letter to Dr. Ismail Wais – “Subject: Request to join IGAD-led High Level Revitalization Forum of ARCISS” (10.02.2018)

South Sudan: SPLM-IO – “On the Death Penalty Handed to James Gadet Dak” (12.02.2018)

South Sudan: The Opposition Group Condemns the Continous Violations of the CoHA by the Government of the Republic of South Sudan (12.02.2018)

Opinion: South Sudan Arms Embargo will not work as long as President Museveni provides cover!

If you ever wondered why people like me had doubts in the new sanctions from the United States and United Nations, it is because it is flawed from the get-go. It lacks one certainty and one key component. It is only hurting the leadership around President Salva Kiir Mayardiit, but not the structures or the profitable arms-trade between friends in the region. That is obvious and the Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF) and Sudanese People Liberation Army (SPLA) has collaborated and worked in the past. They have even had practice of equipment together with fatal outcomes. Therefore, the newly minted sanctions lose value, when the Ugandan counterparts plan to defy and resist the sanctions.

“I want to you tell this, and whether you believe it or not, the government will never fail to acquire weapons by any means. What the foreign countries, including the United States of America, are doing is a pursuit of regime change which nobody will entertain even in America,” said a presidential aide asked what actually was the message Ugandan envoy had delivered. “Nobody will accept that a democratically elected government be changed through the force or by an imposed agreement,” he further told Sudan Tribune on condition of anonymity” (…) “President Museveni is indeed a friend of the people of South Sudan. He sent the special message for two purposes. One, he assured his excellency, General Salva Kiir Mayardit of the support of the people and the government of the Republic of Uganda to the people and the Republic of South Sudan. His Excellency President Museveni gave the assurance of highest support in this situation. Two, in case of sanctions, the government of Uganda would do its best to ensure all weapons and associated services destined to South Sudan are facilitated,” he said” (Sudan Tribune, 2018).

President Museveni doesn’t care about the people of Sudan, he just needs the blood money fuelling his economy, as well as the foreign exchange from both the refugees and the arms. National Resistance Movement and Museveni only need loyalist in Juba so he can extort and get funds for his agenda in Kampala. This here is done, while he is still involved in the Peace process, which he should be kicked out from. Since he will support and supply with arms.

If the United States are serious, they will cut off supplies to Museveni. Even if he get Chinese and Russian gear, he still isn’t using the deadly manufactured in USA to continue the prolonged civil war in South Sudan. That should be a wished outcome. That will hurt the bottom-line right now, but would not it morally stupid to talk of sanctions and then supply the intermediary who trades them to final destination.

Because Museveni will talk with IGAD and have his meeting with different parts of SPLM/A, but he will still make sure arms and ammunition get delivered to SPLA. That meaning, their efforts for final peace and reconciliation is bound by the defeat of the opposition militias. All of this is warlords and rebels, who all wants their fair share of power. Seemingly, Museveni is a close ally of Kiir and its benefits Museveni. He get to trade weapons and has ally in the region. While he still is friendly with US, because they need his soldiers in Somalia. So he is winning both places and nothing ever changes. Except for the families, society and lack of institutions in South Sudan. Where the conflict just becomes more and more volatile.

Therefore, if the UN and USA is serious, they would do something about Uganda. I said it before and I say it again. He will continue to provide arms to Kiir, because it benefits Museveni. Not because he cares about South Sudan. Peace.

Reference:

Sudan Tribune – ‘Museveni tells South Sudan not to worry from U.S. sanctions’ (11.02.2018) link: http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article64703

South Sudan: The Continued Negative Propaganda and Military Offensive by the Regime in Juba (11.02.2018)

South Sudan: TGoNU delegation position on the “Declaration of Principles” in the HLRF negotiations (10.02.2018)

South Sudan: SPLM-FPD – “Request your Assistance in the release of SPLM-IO leader Dr. Riek Machar Teny” (08.02.2018)

South Sudan: SPLM Press Release on signing the “DoP of the HLRF” (09.02.2018)

SPLM/A-IO: “Continued Confinement of Dr. Riek Machar Teny-Dhurgon: A Dark Cloud over the HLRF/ARCSS – A plea from SPLA/M-(IO) Representatives to Troika Countries” (06.02.2018)