Bank of Uganda: Measures to mitigate the economic impact of COVID-19 (20.03.2020)
I write what I like.
The Republic of Uganda’s economy is really reeling, it cannot be sustainable as the Government of Uganda is growing their debt like there is no tomorrow. While the fiscal growth is substantially lower than their rate of debt-service. As the growth of debt combined with lacking growth to substantiate the shortfall.
In addition, with the knowledge of added expenses, growing shortfall of funds in the upcoming Financial Year of 2019/20 and the election year of FY 2020/21. There will be more add-ons on the need for debt service, as the state already had loans outstanding, which the grace period ends and the debt-service begins on. Therefore, the amount of loans will transpire even more, than what is in this report. The endless cycle of debt and growth of it, is worrying, as well, as the state thinks that the magical wand of oil-money will clear this debt. Even as the first operational oil field and such has been postponed yet again.
“The total Government of Uganda external debt service by end of FY 2017/18 amounted to US$275.75 million, which was an increment of l29% compared to US$120.62 million in FY 2016/17” (…) “Debt service of Uganda’s external debt is on the rise and outstripping growth of the country’s income, currently at 6%. This poses risks for future debt repayments, especially as the country continues to acquire external debt at less concessional terms, especially to finance the oil development programme” (P: 6-7, 2019)
“It follows that as interest rates increase, the debt service obligations of Government also increases. The rise in external debt interest costs attests to the fact the government is increasingly contracting non-concessional debt, which will increase the repayment burden” (P: 24, 2019)
“However, this may not be the most likely scenario, as most projects have been discounted and some excluded in the macroeconomic framework. With the development of the NDP III, additional project and other pipeline project related to the oil developments and other infrastructure, will increase the financing requirement of government in the medium term. The inclusion of the above projects will re-classify Uganda from low risk of debt distress to moderate risk of debt distress or high risk if the export shocks materialize. A downgrade would have significant implications for the program with the IMF, where Uganda’s credit risk rating will worsen; implying that accessibility of nonconcessional financing will be limited. This will limit credit to Uganda to only concessional and grants financing.” (P: 28, 2019)
You don’t need to smart about it, as the state has bigger budgets with higher shortfall in the economy, combined with debt service and higher interest payments on the growing amount of loans. You know sooner or later, the economy will tank, as the fiscal responsibility is taken for granted and that fresh funds are lacking, because these are taken out of the economy to finance the payments of the old debts. Instead of generating growth and actually naturally grow the economy, by spending and investing as a state. The money is taken away to service debt, instead of building the state. That is what they are doing and at a alarming rate. Peace.
NEC1-19 – ‘REPORT OF THE COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL ECONOMY ON THE STATE OF INDEBTEDNESS, GRANTS AND GUARANTEES’ June 2019, Parliament of Uganda
I don’t know where start or where to finish. As I am not a tool of propaganda and here to make the President look like super-star with a brilliant mind. Warning the media, banning Police Bond for Killers and all other spats of nonsense, which has nothing to do with the budget. It is just like he has defend himself. As President, he even attacked MPs and their attitude. They were ATMs to their voters, something he is and been called himself. He even recently tried to bribe his MP into position in Rukungiri. So that the President has short-term memory is evident.
You know he is in self-hostile territory, when one of the biggest donors and on of the biggest media owners Aga Khan gets a warning. Surely, the President cannot handle journalism and only care about praise. He cannot manage that people are looking into the growing debt. As this budget alone is 10 trillion back-pay of loans of the 32 trillions spent. While there is shortfall and growing deficit and the donor funds are still dwindling. Therefore, the need for loans to cover the shortfall is needed. So what the President is creating is a debt-trap. He can say he managed that since he used 27 guns, but different to blow former-leadership into oblivion and actually being able to repay your debt.
I am just awaiting the salute and the simple minded changes he is progressing into middle-income country, as the President is showing less intent of doing anything. He just talking about nothing and everything. Quoting the bible and acting holier than the pope, while warning everyone else. Not that it is securing anything. He will secure it all, as he is the man who has the answers. If this is getting boring, is that he has done this for 32 years and counting. And has not changed, other than his face and tenure of hair on his head.
It is like he doesn’t care and just say whatever that is on his mind. No one will fact-check or really check the relevance, because why mind. Its a deluded old man, who has been so long in power, that the ones going against are either in jail or possibly monitored by the sleeping police officers his been talking about. He is again blaming the mindset of Ugandans. Because there is never his fault. He has just been running the enclave and people gotten lazy, awaiting handouts. Not like he has delivered any of his pledges, built institutions or prosperous organizations for the citizens. That is just his lack of mindset and work ethic.
Therefore, there is no need to really dig deep into the speech. It is mere facade, a mere forged mirage of utter nonsense. A speech rampant of lies and warnings. If your a journalist or MP, you should feel offended. Because he expect to be praised, while your supposed to carry the nonsense from him.
The saddest part is that he takes no responsibility, that he has no accountability or no common sense. That this man just continuing to utter these words, like a word-salad of mockery of intelligence. While expecting that the spinning-machine of his party, his spokespersons and friendly media will make him look a giant. They will eat the crap out of it and make it look like gold, but its only fools gold. Not worth the bling its made off, better to buy a Rollex in Wandegeya, it will at least fill your tummy for a moment. Because the fools gold will be worthless and just ready for the bin.
President Museveni has no cards to play or nothing to say that changes the narrative. Only 1986ing the world and hoping he can get away with it. However, the debt trap should worry him. Nevertheless, it is the next generation that will pay-back it and he will be dead by then. Peace.
“Yet, as our Baganda people say, “Omugo oguli ku murirano, tegugoba engo” ─ (the stick in your neighbour’s house cannot help you to fight off a leopard)” – Yoweri Kaguta Museveni at the State of the Nation, 2018 (06.06.2018).
I have stopped after a years to look and breakdown the whole speech of President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni. Because no one should waste that amount of time, unless your Don Wanyama, Tamale Mirundi or Andrew Mwenda. The rest of the random average Joe’s just shouldn’t waste our time with that. After 32 years, what new thing can he re-up and said, what sort of pledge haven’t he pulled out off his ass. Everything has been said, its just rewind of the previous years. There might something amazing, but you should doubt it.
That is why I will focus the passages on the growth to become a Middle-Income Country:
“I hear so many people talk about the attainment of the middle-income status by Uganda. The main problem here is, actually, the problem of Uganda importing too much and exporting little. The GDP per capita today is US$776. To become a middle income country, you need, at least, US$1,006 per capita. This money is calculated in Dollars. Too much importing and too little exporting undermines the progress to a middle-income status. Therefore, Ugandans, please, buy Ugandan; travel Ugandan; health-wise, be treated in Uganda. The government will facilitate its part as outlines in this speech. All I have said above is about the economy that is being developed to create wealth and jobs for the Ugandans as well as widening the tax base for the State of Uganda. At the same time, this bigger economy provides more goods and services for Uganda’s domestic consumption and for exports. Your NRM, always looking ahead, has already negotiated and arranged with our brother and sister Africans to ensure the market integration of Africa (EAC, COMESA, CFTA), so as to provide capacity for the absorption of the greater supply of goods and services produced by the Ugandans awakened to realize their potential as we also buy from our brothers and sisters in Africa, as we all take advantage of the huge collective market of Africa. Besides the huge continental market we are creating with our African brothers, the NRM always never missing in action when it comes to African issues, we have also negotiated for third party market access to the USA, EU, Chinese, Japanese and Indian markets, in varying degrees. Hence, ladies and gentlemen, the NRM has addressed or is addressing all the factors that are necessary to open the gates to the Ugandans engaged in wealth and jobs creation. Let everybody, then, play his or her own part” (Yoweri Museveni – State of the Nation, 2018, 06.06.3028).
The ironies are staggering as the economic policies, the industrial policies and agricultural outputs of the Republic is all in the hands of Museveni. If the NRM wanted to have trade surplus, they would have put in work and made sure the industries, the agricultural output and the end-product that they wanted to put into the world market. That is if the NRM had actually cared, because most policies seems to be short-term and for the short-con, not even the long-con. The projects and projections are for short term gains, not building things.
The specialized boards for the promotion of Ugandan produce and products has been lacking. Also maybe that they haven’t configured to the standards of the world-wide markets. That is why the coffee is sold as beans and not locally branded robusta. It is blended into random blends of foreign corporations instead of being locally grinded and packed ready for the big multi-national supermarket chains. Instead they are sold with least profits as the produce and not as the product. That is what is wrong with the ideas of Ugandan business. They have not thought of how to get value for the produce. This is all because the business is fixated on quick profits, but not going the extra mile.
That is because the NRM have no incentive to this or to try to do it. If they had incentive and any ideas of this. They would have figured it out and industrialized the agricultural output. Neither is put in the cash and the investment to build juice-factories as promised in Amuru, That has been promised for so long, as people are giving up in Katakwi District. This is the reality.
Therefore, listening to the President bitch about the lack of modernization and industrialization of the Republic. Is his fault, as he has put in the work and the ability to change the business models. That is because the way the state does with investors and designate cronyism. Where the businessmen have to political connected and make sure to grease the wheels to get it running.
It is a nice idea to get Ugandans to buy Ugandan products. But then you have to deliver good Ugandan products to fair price, also make sure it is competitive. There are lacking issues and basic need to make sure the possible produce could create added-value. Instead the quick profit and direct exports is the reason for lack of more currency. That would help the republic and make more money without to heavy investments, while using what they already produce plenty off.
While the state has to figure out if they want this, because this could help them to gain another monetary gain. But they doubt they will, because right now, it is the short-con and the quick-fix instead of actually building something for the future. Peace.