Opinion: Sankara’s warning on the odious debt lent to the continent… is relevant today

Sometimes we need an reminder, that some powers and some states doesn’t come with the best intentions or with a real helping hand. If it is the famous white elephants or the other giant aid initiatives that doesn’t amount to anything. However, what is now at stake is for instance a lot African states and their loans to China. The Chinese has collateral in either ports, state owned enterprises or ability to directly extract the needed resources the current state with huge loans has. This is their trap and Sankara warned about this, just like the French, British and Americans has done in the past too. Nothing new under the sun, just new methods to get ahead.

What I am quoting is a speech done to the OAU in 1987, just a few months before his assassination. Therefore, the words and warnings seems more important. As in our time, the leaders of today is recycling the ills of the past. They are doing it out of greed and in the end, the people and the citizens will suffer. Not the multi-national corporations, not the state itself, but the public whose disregarded and have to reinvent money.

The wise words of Sankara:

“We believe analysis of the debt should begin with its roots. The roots of the debt go back to the beginning of colonialism. Those who lent us the money were those who colonized us. They were the same people who ran our states and our economies. It was the colonizers who put Africa into debt to the financiers—their brothers and cousins. This debt has nothing to do with us. That’s why we cannot pay for it. The debt is another form of neocolonialism, one in which the colonialists have transformed themselves into technical assistants. Actually, it would be more accurate to say technical assassins. They’re the ones who advised us on sources of financing, on underwriters of loans. As if there were men whose loans are enough to create development in other people’s countries. These underwriters were recommended to us, suggested to us. They gave us enticing financial documents and presentations. We took on loans of fifty years, sixty years, and even longer. That is, we were led to commit our peoples for fifty years and more. The debt in its present form is a cleverly organized reconquest of Africa under which our growth and development are regulated by stages an norms totally alien to us. It is a reconquest that turns each of us into a financial slave—or just plain slave—of those who had the opportunity, the craftiness, the deceitfulness to invest funds in our countries that we are obliged to repay. Some tell us to pay the debt. This is not a moral question. Paying or not paying is not a question of so-called honor at all” (Thomas Sankara – Speech given at the African Unity Organisation Conference, Addis Ababa, July 29, 1987).

Let us not forgot the lessons of the past, as we in the present is continuing a cycle of recycling debt, growing debt and cycles of repayment schemes, which will only make the next generation suffer. If not, when the grace period hits and the state doesn’t have a big enough tax-base or revenue. It defaults and has to give away extraction licenses, state owned enterprises and other vital transport infrastructure like ports and airports. Because, that what is happening.

This is happening in our time. The world is looking, but nothing is getting done. Peace.

Opinion: Is Collymore the only person who can run Safaricom?

That Bob Collymore has no returned to Safaricom is a sign of the state of affairs, the man whose through 2016 got the dirty laundry in the streets for everyone to see. That Safaricom and Vodaphone takes him back. Shows that the company is so big, it doesn’t care about public perception or their ordeal of the last two years. As they can get scratch free from the dirt and thinks people forget. Collymore is a shady character and runs a dirty business. However, it is profitable, that is why the leadership above him keeps him. They want the easy money and wants to run the market of telecom’s in Kenya. That is what Safaricom does so well.

That Collymore was directly involved in the General Elections, that his misuse of the company within the Results Transmissions, that doesn’t matter now. That the Safaricom used their backbone to support the Jubilee, by canceling and stopping the M-Pesa Paybill to the National Super Alliance (NASA). Shows the lack of tolerance and their political stance. They did that with passion, while fixing and making sure the fraud of an election went through with their back-channels with the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission, also with Cambridge Analytica and whatever else that was needed to secure the results into the famous undisclosed server. Collymore did this and fixed that with IEBC, while stopping the cash-flow to NASA. A clear indication of his works. That was the year after the damaging internal report from KPMG.

The KPMG agreement showed how the Safaricom misused their place, their tenders and the procurement of installations of 4G, M-Pesa software and direct dealing with third-parties. This was done in a fashion where the leadership was eating of the top and putting the bills on the consumers. At a rate that was insane. That the 18^th February 2016 KPMG Report should mean the end of a career for a leader and CEO like Collymore. But Vodaphone doesn’t give a rats ass. They don’t care as long as their profits are souring in Kenya. They are oblivious and nurturing their pockets, nothing else matters. Even if they are within the pockets of cartels, election-rigging and midst of public outrage. As long as the pockets are filled with shillings, they don’t mind. They can still be proud-cock and be chiefs.

That Safaricom paid of the local-media houses with ad-revenue, that they used their place to keep themselves on top. That doesn’t matter, because the results are blindly positive, even if everyone know knows that the company is run like the mafia. Controlling everything it can, not only selling Mobil-Data, Mobile-Money and Communications, but they are also a FinTech company that has the information on the public that other doesn’t. Who knows how they are using that and misusing that to gain even more profits. When Facebook does it? Why shouldn’t Safaricom too?

That Collymore should be gone, that is the reality, there should be someone who could muster trust and show that its a decent company, not a pillar of power in Kenyan Politics. Which it has become and where it muster all capabilities with the funds to slash stories in the media and also to be directly involved in Results Transmission during the General Elections. Therefore, the importance of the company is beyond communications between the citizens and their data. But also the perception of the trust between them.

Collymore is now the epitome of what is wrong with businesses in Kenya. He is the significant prospect of someone who misuses his position for monetary gain. Instead of being there for just simple services and leave the office in the night. He has directed the company in the midst of public space, making sure his stories are portrayed and cleaning the dirt of his hands. Even if it doesn’t go off, it won’t, not this way.

So Vodaphone, I have one important question:

Where the no-one else on planet earth that have the capabilities to run Safaricom?

Seemingly there should be, but your still behind the man that are really involved in shady deals for you. Taking the dirt and eating it, so that the stakeholders can eat the profits without any questionable

FinTech Companies in Kenya: Are now evading the personal space of costumers to provide them services!

Today, I will write about how international businesses are using their power and their markets strategy, while people are giving up their private communications and other vital information for simple transactions between family and friends, also when borrowing micro-credit or buying solar-cells through credit. This is all based on the Privacy International recently released report and the quotes are taken from there. It shows vital information taken from citizens who uses apps and financial services in their daily lives. Clearly, they have accessed certain freedoms for the trade with these Kenyans. The business transactions and the trade is not only making direct profits for the corporations allowing direct transactions, but also delivering services like payday loans and buying equipment. Still, it has a special price and they have to sign-up to give away certain aspects of their lives to gain this. That is what is interesting because it says something of how much of the personal space these corporations are getting from the persons they are profiting from!

“The term ‘fintech’ has been defined by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) as: “a dynamic segment at the intersection of the financial services and technology sectors where technology-focused start-ups and new market entrants innovate the products and services currently provided by the traditional financial services industry.” (Privacy International, P: 10, 2017).

“Yet a change that has not been much explored is that M-Pesa also produces a vast amount of data for the telco Safaricom. Each of the millions of transactions that take place a year tell a story. They tell the story of how the small business is operating: the money they’re sending to their suppliers, the transactions that are taking place. But it tells other stories as well: the money that comes in and then is sent to the hospital. The school fees paid by the biological father, unknown to anyone except the mother, father and Safaricom. But there is also a way in which this data is known by third parties. The transmission of the content of the money transfers over M-Pesa is encrypted. However, the details of any transactions are sent, unencrypted, by plain SMS. Even if M-Pesa transactions themselves are sent via secure and encrypted means, the account information is not. The messages that someone sends for receiving or sending money include the name of the recipient (from the registration of the SIM), the amount sent, and their current balance. This facilitates the gathering of personal data by apps. The fact that the transactions can be tracked becomes a large part of the power of the lenders, as in the Kenyan example, leaves a trail via the M-Pesa SMS messages for both customer and retailer. As shall be illustrated, this is an aspect of M-Pesa of which fintechs are able to take advantage” (Privacy International, P: 29, 2017).

Tala App:

“From the data provided by the app, decisions are made about whether and how people repay their loans. One of the key pieces of data is to analyse the content of SMS messages for the records of M-Pesa payments. These are very valuable records to analyse; for example, if the person seeking a loan has a small business, it is a good measure of the health of the business and the money entering and leaving the business. But, according to Tala, it can also be used to analyse how people are actually using their loans, as frequently the money they receive from Tala will leave someone’s M-Pesa account immediately (for example, to pay school fees or a hospital loan, or an individual). But the analysis of the data by Tala extends beyond this, to make analyses based on data and information that are, at best, unexpected to be used for credit scoring. For example, Tala analyses call logs: their analysis has found that people who make regular calls to family are 4% more likely to repay their loan. To do this analysis, they need to know who your family is: from the content of text messages that call someone “mama”, and the pattern of calls” (Privacy International, P: 30, 2017).

Branch:

“One difference from Tala is that Branch also makes use of Facebook for authentication; as discussed below, this is allowed under Facebook’s terms and conditions. Another factor that Branch uses for its decision-making is the behaviour of your friends, and their repayment patterns for Branch loans. How does Branch know who your friends are? They have a refer-a-friend feature (as does Tala), which is one source of this data. But they can also see your Facebook friends, and your call log to know who is contacted regularly” (Privacy International, P: 31, 2017).

M-Kopa:

“The data that M-Kopa gathers from the device via the SIM is information like location (using cell data, not GPS), the charge level in the battery, and what devices are plugged in. They will also soon be gathering data on the television programmes watched. This specific data on programming is not data that it is planning on selling, but rather to use to develop its own services in the future. M-Kopa’s website states that, “After completing payments, customers own the product outright.” However, the customer does not own their data. The terms and conditions of a M-Kopa loan make the company’s position on data clear: “M-KOPA shall have absolute and sole ownership of … the data which is obtained by the Customer’s use of the Device.” Customers have no right to even see their own

data, apart from the provisions under Credit Reference Bureau rules. For M-Kopa, it ultimately comes down to a business decision: “If data privacy was important for the Kenyan consumer, we would do it,” states Chad Larson, the Chief Credit Officer at M-Kopa. At the same time, both M-Kopa and its investors have a viewpoint that their use of data is ethical” (Privacy International, P: 32, 2017).

Control over the data:

“A significant issue with the fintech companies in Kenya, is that they keep access to the data. They keep the data—and, in some cases analyse it, even if the user has stopped being a customer of theirs, and has deleted their app. Branch is explicit that it keeps the data even after a user uninstalls the app, and admits it is possibly doing further analysis on it, “we have that right.” Tala encourages people, even if they have been rejected for a loan, to keep the app; if they do delete it, Tala retains their data. This is so that, if the customer returns later, they can reinstall the app, go through some simple KYC checks, and be able to borrow again. M-Kopa, on the other hand, continues to collect data from the device even after the loan has been repaid” (Privacy International, P: 33, 2017).

Just as this reveals that Safaricom, the partly owned Vodacom Telecom Business have no trouble through the M-Pesa, the Cellphone Mobile-Money Transactions, that they can hold onto all information between all parts of the transactions. Like how a person send the messages of giving money to friend/family and at what point they picking up the mobile-money. This personal data is all incorporated into their apps, as they provide the services and keeps this fintech data on each of their clients.

As we see with the Tala App, which is also used to get loans. Tala analyses the personal SMS’s from the client to either give or not accept proposals for loans from their services. Tala are looking into the M-Pesa messages given to the client and are scanned by the app. To see if the client can actually be able to repay the debt possible sign-off from Tala. This proves that the Tala App is checking the credit history done with the services of M-Pesa, which is Safaricom/Vodacom. Branch another Fintech app is taking it further, they are also analyzing your behavior and who is your refer-friend on Facebook. They are clearly entitled to the private information of your networks before you get a loan. So they know exactly, who and when you contact friends and family on social media before giving you a loan. It shows how personal and how much information on app can get before you get the services needed from them.

M-Kopa are another one, who is directly saying that all information collected from their costumers are their to own and to use for later costumers. It can also be used after the usage. More of these Apps seems to do so. They are keeping this personal data even after the transactions, the loans and the purchase. This can be used to further get clients and knowledge of when the costumers need it more. So they can get them “addicted” to the services. We have no idea how they store this personal data or who they trade it with after gathering it all.

This should all be scrutinized and questioned, as it breaches with personal space collected with marketing and simple ploy to generate enough information to be able to gain the services from the companies. These companies are vultures of the costumers private space and uses it as leverage for their trade.

It is worrying how far they are taking it and how much personal information they are gathering to give them these services. Peace.

Reference:

Privacy International – ‘Fintech: Privacy and Identity in the New Data-intensive Financial Sector’ (November 2017)

Worrying that many lacks food in Tanzania as the Staple food prices are increasing!

“Ask not what you can do for your country. Ask what’s for lunch.”
― Orson Welles

There are worrying signs of higher prices on staple foods, as reports of the added price for Maize and Sorghum. With the likes of Maize that has skyrocketed over the last few months, the same has happen to Sorghum. The Central Government needs to stop the inflation of prices as this is key in the staple and adds strains to many of citizens.

Maize prices per 100 kg was 65,103.5 Tanzanian Shillings in December 2015 and by December 2016 it cost 85,159.8 Tanzanian Shillings. In a years time the prices on maizes has gone up 30 %. That is a worrying sign!

Sorghum prices per 100 kg was 81,638.1 Tanzanian Shillings in December 2015 and by December 2016 it cost 104,545.1 Tanzanian Shillings. In a years time the prices on Sorghum has gone up 28 %. That is not something anyone wants to see.

Just as the prices are rising, the dwindling levels of foods that has no been confirmed by the Minister:

“Reports of food shortages were initially denied by top levels of government, but were later accepted. At the end of January 2017, the Minister for Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries, Dr Charles Tizeba, told parliament that a study conducted by the Ministry, in collaboration with various partners, had found that 55 districts (out of 169 in Tanzania including Zanzibar) were facing food shortages, and

that “35,491 tonnes of food are required for supply between February and April 2017 to combat a shortage facing 1,186,028 people’’ in these districts” Sauti za Wananchi, 2017).

What is more worrying is the stats from the survey done by Sauti za Wananchi:

“The key findings are:

• Eight in ten households report that their income does not cover their daily needs

• Eight in ten households usually keep a stock of food in reserve in case a food shortage

arises

• A huge majority of Sauti za Wananchi respondents (78%) report food shortages in

their locations

• The price of maize has doubled in the past two years, even accounting for general

price inflation

• Seven in ten households worried about running short of food in the past three months

• The household food security situation has worsened between September 2016 and

February 2017” (Sauti za Wananchi, 2017).

When you have rising staple food prices, little or no reserves in the homes, as well as lacking income to combat the running prices on food. Set the citizens and the inflation into a devastating spiral that no republic want to go through. The United Republic of Tanzania Government needs to act swift and clear on the important issue and lack of safeguard, as the running expenses and lack of food security that is rising. Not only the prices, but this has all happen in the term of President John Magufuli, who needs to take charge and make sure his citizens can eat and earn enough to have a healthy living. The households needs a revamp and the structure with agriculture and food imports needs to change to significantly, these sort of number and amount of people lacking food is a dire situation. Peace.

Reference:

Tanzania – ‘Sauti za Wananchi – Brief No. 39’ (March 2017)

Red Pepper and the Pepper Publications defaulting on loans!

In the recent few hours more and more rumours of the Red Pepper Newspaper is having financial difficulties. Like they are losing money without having enough earnings, the Red Pepper is supposed to own the sum of 26 billion shillings. Earlier this month Red Pepper already had issues.

Take a look:

“The Pepper Publications recently suspended publication of Hello, Akapapula and Emulalu subsidiary tabloids after majority of staff left the company over accumulated salary arrears. As the publication grapples with collapsing copy sales and dwindling advertisement revenues, Stanbic bank’s action could push the tabloid to the edge of bankruptcy. Sources are telling this website that the Pepper Publications sold its Shs 5bn Crane Bank loan to Stanbic before directors picking an extra Shs 2.5bn for luxury cars. Unfortunately, the tabloid has fallen short of honouring its financial obligations, compelling the bank to take drastic measures” (…) “Failure to pay means The Pepper Publications will have to get another bank to make over the loan. SOURCES said staff at the tabloid is worried about the future of the publication as most of the meager revenues coming in end up in the pockets of directors. “What we are witnessing now is milking a rock. We have gone six months without pay” (Xrated, 2017).

So the Red Pepper has tried to come with much different publication, but without having the funds to facilitate the expansion. Therefore we are seeing a meltdown in funds. So now the banks has lost their patience and now are in big trouble, even Stanbic Bank went further. They even sent debt collectors. Here is the story!

“On Monday morning, a group of debt collectors from Stanbic bank raided Red Pepper offices in Namanve, in an effort to get back their money the tabloid borrowed in to fund their expansion” (…) “Those who were already in tried to flee while those who hadn’t come got phone calls from someone called George, the chief security guard and they decided not to come,” said a source at the newspaper” (…) “Meanwhile, the long serving finance manager Bob Mahebewa threw in the towel on the very day, and he resigned in an effort to avoid future embarrassments. Muhebewa told his close friends that he was scared when he saw Stanbic debt collectors and he knows they must arrest the top five directors unless they pay all the money owed to the bank” (Guide Reporter, 2017).

We can wonder who will buy the Pepper Publication or if the papers and magazines will stop to be published. Pepper Publication and Red Pepper Newspaper needs fresh funds, since the trailing tabloid. Since they need more people buying their paper and read their stories since it seems like the people aren’t picking it up or if the investors has given it up. It is either or. Peace.

Reference:

Guide Reporter – ‘STANBIC BANK DEBT COLLECTORS RAID RED PEPPER OFFICES, DIRECTORS FLEE WHILE FINANCE BOSS RESIGNS’ (14.03.2017) link: http://businessguideafrica.com/stanbic-bank-debt-collectors-raid-red-pepper-offices-directors-flee-while-finance-boss-resigns/

 

Xrated – ‘Stanbic Bank is set to recall a Shs7bn loan given to Red Pepper Publications as the tabloid’s financial woes worsen’ (10.03.2017) link: http://xrated.co.ug/stanbic-bank-is-set-to-recall-a-shs7bn-loan-given-to-red-pepper-publications-as-the-tabloids-financial-woes-worsen/

UNCTAD Warns on Debt, Says Africa Should Find New Ways to Finance Development

This year’s UNCTAD Economic Development in Africa Report 2016 finds that Africa’s external debt ratios appear manageable, but African governments must take action to prevent rapid debt growth from becoming a crisis, as experienced in the late 1980s and 1990s. 

NAIROBI, Kenya, July 21, 2016 – African governments should add new revenue sources to finance their development, such as remittances, public-private partnerships, and a clampdown on illicit financial flows, an UNCTAD report said on Thursday, warning that debt looks unsustainable in some countries.

This year’s UNCTAD Economic Development in Africa Report 2016 finds that Africa’s external debt ratios appear manageable, but African governments must take action to prevent rapid debt growth from becoming a crisis, as experienced in the late 1980s and 1990s.

“Borrowing can be an important part of improving the lives of African citizens,” UNCTAD Secretary-General Mukhisa Kituyi said. “But we must find a balance between the present and the future, because debt is dangerous when unsustainable.”

At least $600 billion will be needed each year to meet the Sustainable Development Goals in Africa, according to the report which is subtitled Debt Dynamics and Development Finance in Africa. This amount equates to roughly a third of countries’ gross national income. Official development aid and external debt are unlikely to cover these needs, the report finds.

A decade or so of strong growth has provided many countries with the opportunity to access international financial markets. Between 2006 and 2009, the average African country saw its external debt stock grow 7.8 percent per year, a figure that accelerates to 10 percent per year in the years 2011–2013 to reach $443 billion or 22 per cent of gross national income by 2013.

Several African countries have also borrowed heavily on domestic markets, the report finds. It provides specific examples and analyses of domestic debt in Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Zambia. In some countries, domestic debt rose from an average 11 percent of GDP in 1995 to around 19 percent at the end of 2013, almost doubling in two decades.

“Many African countries have begun the move away from a dependence on official development aid, looking to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals with new and innovative sources of finance,” Dr. Kituyi said.

The report argues that African countries should look for complementary sources of revenue, including remittances, which have been growing rapidly, reaching $63.8 billion to Africa in 2014. The report discusses how remittances and diaspora savings can contribute to public and development finance.

Together with the global community, Africa must also tackle illicit financial flows; which can be as high as $50 billion per year. Between 1970 and 2008, Africa lost an estimated $854 billion in illicit financial flows, roughly equal to all official development assistance received by the continent in that time.

And while governments should be vigilant of the borrowing risks, public-private partnerships have also started to play a more prominent role in financing development. In Africa, public-private partnerships are being used especially to finance infrastructure. Of the 52 countries considered during the period 1990-2014, Nigeria tops the list with $37.9 billion of investment, followed by Morocco and South Africa.

#SafaricomKPMGScandal: The madness from the CEO Bob Collymore continues as the plan to deflect the scandal in the press is not fulfilled!

There are days and a fortnight since the unintended release of draft papers on the KPMG Audit report that alleged conspiracy of corruption and illegal tender buying of the central leadership in the Safaricom Limited Kenya. The State-own telecom Company, which are partly owned by the Vodafone as well have entitled themselves into hole because of their leadership. These allegations have not stopped and the press is still just spreading the words of Bob Collymore, not the words of the report and what it really means.

It’s like the KPMG draft report wasn’t released as the biased bought media through the massive war-chest of PR money can silence the Kenyan Media and even create a many Twitter Bots and Social Media bots to try to dismiss the leaker and blogger Cyprian. That is just weak-tea… If you are having trouble with the allegations coming from an internal report, it is time to respect the knowledge that those who have read it, presume they understand the implications and the effects of actions from the Safaricom leaders and what this decisions did with the monies the company profits are used.

The Kenya National Police Service should use their detectives to find out who leaked it to the blogger is nonsense, as the facts and questionable behaviour of the Safaricom leaders should be questioned and briefed, as this thieving is the cardinal sin, not the ones that strawmen spreading it online. It’s like putting the blame on the nail for the existence of plywood for the wall. You need the nail to put the plywood on the wall. The wood is needed to be there before the nail puts it together. The nail is the leak, as the wood was already there for the taking!

That CEO Bob Collymore didn’t want this out, is because Vodafone was asking into the affairs of the business and the model of procurement from Safaricom. The audit from KPMG was certainly not entailed to enter public space, but when your corporate governance is so shady, the dirty laundry would by some time end in the hands of a whistle-blower, apparently, it did.

That Bob Collymore and Safaricom have used the WPP-Scangroup to marketing and PR, so that these issues could go away; as the PR Firm gained a tender worth Ksh. 2.1 billion between December 2013 and January 2014. Certainly their business must be thriving as the closeness between Collymore and their CEO Bharat Thakrar, who even attended the recent wedding of Collymore. That is a bit close relationship between the corporate leaders, isn’t it?

As we can question the media’s view on the release of the KPMG draft report as the Standard Group’s Management Editor Joseph Odindo sent a memo to all editors ordering them to kill any story relating to Safaricom and the KPMG Audit. So when a chief editor says to all of the leaders who picks stories to Publish are dwelling away with the ones connected to Safaricom, that shows again how embedded the Kenyan Press are with the Company. It is not a conspiracy, as this is one of many who are already implicated to shut this story down. And the reason why I write again about it; that is why KTN News only dropped the Safaricom Press Statement, but not questioned a single word in the leaked draft report like they would catch Ebola or a deadly disease by doing so.

What does such a CEO Robert (Bob) Collymore of Safaricom Limited do as a credible leader and business-man to be parts of the Global Compact Board of United Nations for good governance in business, as the Safaricom scandal shows that his hands are dirty and need a clean before he shows etiquette and ethical leadership towards others in words in the United Nations board, as his company is run by single tenders and by close relationships of leaders who have taken orders instead of following companies own procedure for procurement, and that man should give ethical advice in the United Nation board? Dumb-Dumb, part of the leaders who runs the world, aye? Ban Ki-Moon should re-evaluate the board and he may have more corrupted leaders in the United Nations boards, as even Bob Collymore has showed in the paperwork.

The news that inspired me the most was not the connection between media themselves and the Safaricom advertisement money. But that even the fried of Bob Collymore, the other CEO of WPP-Scangroup Bharat Thakrar also attacks the blogger Cyprian, trying to shade him with allegations of working with the rival company Transcend Media Group and the lawyer Mike Njeru. I am just waiting for Tintin, Mr. Smurf and Cinderella to have love-affair. That is as plausible that a blogger Cyprian who writes fiercely with notions of BS, have a connection with other party that Honourable Thakrar claims. Collymore have already used all kind methods to silence the released papers that makes him look foolish, as they have had property deals, tender agreements for M-Pesa another ones that are questionable, together with the level of paying of media and even entering media house with Police Officers to intimidate them for writing about the scandal.

When you goes this far and when you use these methods, even wants to use the police to arrest the man who has not done anything illegal, if it is illegal to write about corruption and violence, then I, myself is a common criminal, therefore that the CID is written up about Cyprian is nonsense, as the Safaricom Limited deals are the shady ones, not the writing about it. That it is not what the CEO Collymore wants, that is understandable as nobody wants their bad tenders or the shady agreements into the public space, therefore the KPMG Audit was not a planned release of information or something that the Safaricom Limited wanted to for-see as the business would rather see without it. That is something we all understand. Still, the Cyprian leak is not his making, it is Safaricom and CEO Collymore has done the bad deals, not the blogger or the media.

So if CEO Bob Collymore wants to be brave now, is to go through the fire and swallow the nonsense and take responsibility of the Huawei, One-Campus and the other deals that was disclosed in the KPMG audit report, though I doubt he has the heart to do so. Why he doesn’t have the heart? Because as pointed out he has used all kind of money and intimidation towards media even to silence the story, while also writing Cyprian up to the CID. That is just showing how wrong from the start of the leak Mr. Collymore has been. If he was a man of fair and justice, if he was a man of honour he would have cleared the agreements and signed tenders with fellow companies to show that he wanted a clean slate after doing corrupt business. Instead he has tried to mute the discussion and laundry in the public. Well, Mr. Collymore you should plea now and stop paying media to cover your dishonesty. This because the papers are leaked and will stay leaked. You cannot go back in time and become Marty McFly, you are a real man Mr. Collymore and the responsibility for Safaricom Limited is in your hands. So now time to take that responsibility and step your game up and stop with them shadow games, you and your PR Team is not good at it. Peace.

Safaricom Statement Regarding Allegations on Corporate Governance (20.05.2016)

#SafaricomKPMGScandal: Pages from the Draft report in question of 18th February 2016

IMF Country Report No.15/175 on Uganda and the IMF review of the Policy Support – Quotes and Outtakes

Now I will go through how the IMF is describing the economic situation in Uganda. It will have similarities with the budget of 2015/2016. Seem like the Ministry of Finance in Uganda. The numbers and fiscal standards are exactly the same. Still I think it will good to see and give what the Western Hemisphere and the monetary organ is saying about the economy of Uganda. So that people can see the similarities and also the difference quotes from the situation.

Min Zhu the Deputy Managing Director and Acting Chair in the IMF commented on Uganda in this way:

“The economic policy mix is expected to remain focused on attaining growth and inflation Objectives” (…) “The Bank of Uganda is encouraged to remain firmly focused on the maintenance of price stability” (…) “Enacting regulations to implement the new PFM Act and a charter of fiscal responsibility, and improving cash management are critical remaining reforms. Amending the Bank of Uganda Act and enacting financial institutions legislation are key steps to further enhance central bank independence and strengthen financial resilience”.

The Executive board:

“Uganda’s recent economic performance has been favorable. Real GDP growth is projected at 5¼ percent for FY2014/15 supported by a fiscal stimulus and a recovery in Private Consumption” (…) “Economic policies in FY2014/15 have supported growth and stability objectives. The fiscal deficit is estimated at 4½ percent of GDP, below previous projections, on account of a sharp tax revenue increase” (…) “The outlook is promising. Growth is estimated at 5¾ percent in FY2015/16 and an average 6¼ percent over the medium-term, driven by scaled-up public investment and a rebound in private demand”.

The Executive Board Assessment:

“Directors stressed the need for continued fiscal discipline in the pre-electoral environment, and recommended strengthened communication with the markets” (…) “Directors welcomed the adoption of the Public Financial Management Act, and advised prompt enactment of its regulations”.

Staff report from the 12^th June 2015:

Context:

“Security concerns following unrest in neighboring countries and terrorist attacks in the region have weighed on Uganda’s spending needs, exports, and remittances. Declining donor support in reaction to concerns about governance and human rights and reduced development partners’ aid budgets have spurred domestic borrowing requirements” (…) “During a period of moderate growth, inflation has come down significantly from its 33 percent peak in 2011; and despite a decline in international reserves and a pickup in public debt, both remain at comfortable levels” (…) “The reduction in the stock of domestic arrears was smaller than targeted reflecting a decision to backload intra-year repayments, but the annual target is expected to be met. Contracting of nonconcessional borrowing (NCB) for hydropower plants (HPPs), roads, and electrification was within the $2.2 billion limit. Most end-March ITs were met” (…) “The approval of the Public Financial Management (PFM) Act in November 2014 was a major milestone, and structural benchmarks on finalizing preparation on its regulations and the Charter of Fiscal Responsibility (CFR) were observed. The Treasury Single Account (TSA) set-up has laid the stage for improved cash management although more time will be needed to eliminate movements of cash and incorporate donor accounts in the system. The submission to parliament of amendments to the Bank of Uganda (BoU) Act was postponed” (…) “the government has started the implementation of an ambitious investment package aimed at narrowing the infrastructure gap, enhancing regional integration, and preparing for oil production”.

Recent Developments:

“real GDP growth was 4½ percent in FY2013/14, driven by services, trade, construction, and manufacturing—below the estimated potential of about 6 percent” (…) “The nominal exchange rate against the US dollar appreciated by 7 percent in the year through February 2014, and since then depreciated by 20-25 percent” (…) “The real effective exchange rate appreciated by about 4 percent in 2014, mainly reflecting the weakening of Uganda’s main trading partners’ currencies” (…) “Annual core inflation fell to 2.7 percent in December 2014 and rebounded to 4.8 percent in May 2015” (…) “GDP was revised upwards by 17¼ percent in FY2009/10, the base year. The services sector and to a lesser extent the agricultural sector increased their share in GDP, while the share of industry and construction declined” (…) “Short-term benefits of the oil price decline have been less pronounced in Uganda than in other countries in the region. In the past nine months, petrol average pump prices have declined by 10 percent in domestic currency” (…) “Oil investments might be delayed in the context of lower profitability. Moreover, many interrelated investment decisions are dependent on the oil price, including granting production licenses; signing commercial and financial arrangements; developing engineering, procurement and construction plans; and agreeing on transnational infrastructure works” (…) “The current account deficit remained large owing to structurally high trade deficits. Imports of capital goods and petroleum products are increasing, while both coffee and non-coffee exports have stagnated since mid-2013 reflecting depressed food exports to South Sudan” (…) “The monetary policy transmission asymmetry is explained by the banks’ cautious focus on loan recovery and their high operating costs, coupled with some crowding out effects as government’s domestic borrowing requirements increased at that time” (…) “The number of commercial banks has increased from 14 to 25 with a large influx of foreign banks, which currently hold 80 percent of assets” (…) “the BoU kept a tight policy stance, holding the CBR constant at 11 percent from June 2014 to April 2015, and then raising it to 12 percent, on account of global developments and the ongoing and expected exchange rate pass-through. The BoU’s intervention in the foreign exchange market has been focused on its program of announced dollar purchases for reserve build-up, but in the last few months it has been intervening on the sale side to smooth the fast-paced shilling depreciation. This intervention, along with increased infrastructure-related government imports, drove reserves down from $3.2 billion in end-December to $2.9 billion in mid-May (about 4 months of imports)”.

Economic Outlooks and Risks:

“Public investment financing, alongside weaker exports and tourism receipts, will drive the current account deficit up while preserving reserves at 4 months of imports” (…) “Low consumer prices—with average core inflation projected to remain within the PSI consultation inner band at 3½ and 6¼ percent for end FY2014/15 and FY2015/16″ (…) “Slower growth in key trading partners and further spillovers from lower global liquidity could trigger capital outflows, squeezing liquidity and generating currency mismatches for banks and corporations. In the medium term, the complex commercial and legal aspects surrounding FDI in the oil sector could delay the planned investments”.

Supporting Medium-Term Growth:

“The latter has been at the center of the authorities’ economic agenda as infrastructure investments of around $11 billion—including PPPs—are expected over the next ten years” (…) “With recoverable crude oil reserves of 1.7 billion barrels out of potential reserves of 6.5 billion, oil production would start in FY2020/21 under a model that entails a crude export pipeline and a domestic refinery” (…) “Uganda ratified the Monetary Union Protocol, and has been actively participating in work to establish EAC regional institutions and to create a fiscal surveillance process” (…) “the Uganda Revenue Authority (URA) to improve enforcement and compliance, but a sustained increase in the ratio will require incorporating the large informal sector into the tax-paying portion of the economy and ensuring that large taxpayers comply with their obligations” (…) “Sustainable financial deepening will largely rely on making steady progress on financial inclusion, which will in turn depend on actions to boost the bank deposit base; enhance the intermediation role of non-bank financial institutions, including the National Social Security Fund (NSSF); and develop the money and capital markets” (…) “Staff’s debt sustainability analysis, which includes the infrastructure package as a whole, concludes that the public and publicly guaranteed external debt-to-GDP ratio in net present value (NPV) terms would peak at about 25 percent in FY2020/21. Even combined with domestic borrowing plans, total public debt would remain well below the benchmark associated with heightened vulnerabilities” (…) “The tax-to-GDP ratio in Uganda was one of the lowest in the region prior to the GDP rebasing and is definitely the lowest afterward. Over the past ten years the ratio only increased by 0.2 percentage points per year, on average” (…) “Planned improvements include URA’s efforts to assess income from rental properties and identify businesses that are accessing local services but not filing national tax returns. Use of enhanced controls and creation of a single central processing center for all customs clearances should boost customs revenue” (…) “EAC convergence criteria, Uganda has targeted a tax-to-GDP ratio of 25 percent by 2021”(…) “Social protection in Uganda is entrenched in the Constitution, Vision 2040 and the NDP II. Interventions have nonetheless been limited and fragmented—with only 0.4 percent of GDP a year devoted to direct income support and 1.2 percent of GDP to total social protection”.

Maintaining Fiscal restraint while raising Public Investment:

“The overall deficit increased by 2 percent of GDP between FY2011/12 and FY2014/15” (…) “The overall deficit is projected to increase by an additional 2½ percentage points by FY2017/18 fueled by a continued expansion in capital spending (3¾ percentage points) and a small increase in current spending (¼ percentage point), and curtailed by a further improvement in revenues of at least ½ percent of GDP each year” (…) “the supplementary budget used part of the windfall revenue and expenditure savings to cover operational shortfalls at several ministries, and Electoral Commission outlays, among other pressing needs. All in all, the overall fiscal deficit is now projected to reach 4½ percent of GDP (6¾ percent in the program) and issuances of securities in the domestic market should remain within the target” (…) “The FY2015/16 budget will increase the overall fiscal deficit to 7 percent of GDP largely financed by NCB on favorable terms” (…) “The contingency provision was reduced by 0.2 percent of GDP at the time of budget approval to facilitate one-off spending on police activities linked to the election and allowances to parliamentarians, leaving little budget flexibility and requiring prudent execution in the year ahead”.

Protecting the Inflation objective:

“Some challenges remain, including insufficient institutional arrangements to prevent government’s use of deposits in BoU accounts beyond agreed levels, and shortcomings in inflation forecasting capabilities and fiscal-monetary policy coordination” (…) “Given the high share of imported goods in the CPI, import prices play a key role in inflation behavior, with an estimated pass-through factor of 0.4–0.5” (…) “The BoU has taken steps to reduce volatility in overnight market rates by allowing all banks (previously only primary dealers) to access BoU operations”.

Securing a more effective contribution of the Financial Sector to Growth:

“The BoU does not stress test banks’ resilience to lending rate hikes because of insufficient data availability” (…) “High dollarization. 37 percent of deposits and 43 percent of loans are denominated in foreign currency” (…) “banks’ business models, with a large share of assets devoted to investments in Treasury bills, reflect cautious risk taking, as well as curtailed policy predictability given the large swings in interest rates, thus jeopardizing credit growth”.

Building Institution and improving the Business Environment:

“Core fiscal targets: These targets are based on the EAC convergence criteria, and consist of an overall deficit target of 3 percent of GDP by FY2020/21 and an annual debt ceiling of 50 percent of GDP in NPV terms”.

Staff Appraisal:

“That fiscal policy decisions will be strictly aligned to the budget is essential to influencing banks’, corporations’, and households’ behavior. Even more critical, however, is that policy implementation adheres to the budget to build a track record of fiscal discipline during pre-electoral periods and preserve the economic objectives”.

Afterthought:

Can you believe it and how the inflation numbers together with the borrowing are not totally the same, that is for the reason that the Budget Deficit has been set by the government of Uganda is on the size of the yearly budget instead of the GDP as the IMF they set it there, the number will significant better and also smaller. Still, the Yearly Review which was ‘Value for Money’ told the same, even if the number will be different next year from URA and Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MoFPED) will hopefully drop similar numbers next time. Since the numbers for deficit are going up and also the loans because of missing donor money. While waiting for the money from the Oil Development. Still, wait for how the budget year 2015/2016 will go. Peace.

How the Implementation of the IMF Policy Support is going:  

Letter from the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MoFPED) to the IMF:

Reference:

International Monetary Fund – IMF Country Report No. 15/175: STAFF REPORT FOR THE 2015 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION AND FOURTH REVIEW UNDER THE POLICY SUPPORT INSTRUMENT—PRESS RELEASE; STAFF REPORT; AND STATEMENT BY THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR FOR UGANDA (July 2015).