DRC: The Silent War of Nord-Kivu – Has General Laurent Nkunda returned?

There are now open rumours that the “house-arrested” and “under surveillance arrest” of General Laurent Nkunda has left Rwanda for the Democratic Republic of Congo. This time his fighting side by side with the Mars 23 Movement (M23) which are a militia or militant organization created on the failed peace agreement between Nkunda’s CNDP and the DRC government. As the FARDC wasn’t able or had the ability to integrate the fighters from the CNDP after the peace agreement in 2009. Therefore, it wouldn’t be shocking if Gen. Nkunda would join forces with the M23.

There been speculation since November 21st 2023 that he was already in Nord-Kivu Province fighting alongside Gen. Sultani Makenga. They would be weapon brothers and commanders in arms. With these rumours it was said that Gen. Nkunda didn’t come alone but with a 100 or so fighters as well. Meaning this was a coordinated effort and with blessings from Kigali. Because, how else could a “house arrested” and “under surveillance” person just flee or have the ability to plan his escape to the DRC from Rwanda.

There even direct questions that he would be in Kibumba, Nord-Kivu, as we speak. If he is… that’s a signal that the Rwandan government have given him a blessing to join the effort. They aren’t even concealing it. As a former warlord is allowed to leave the nation and they didn’t inform anyone prior. The other signatories of the agreement and the trust between tripartite parties of Kinshasa, Kigali and Kampala. As all three had agreements and even cantonments of fighters after the rebellion of CNDP. This is why there was one well known in Uganda and Nkunda was under house arrest in Rwanda.

When there is reports like these, you just know where there is smoke, there is fire. Apparently, there is willing to make things burn and support the efforts made by the M23. That’s why the General of CNDP returns to fight and coordinate battles in Nord-Kivu. He returns to ensure and add pressure to the FARDC alliances. In such a fashion that the M23 are strengthen and beats the odds. That’s why his there and you can just wonder what Kigali has to gain.

Because, if Gen. Nkunda is there… it is a clear message that the leadership and the military attaches of Kigal is aware. They knew he was “house arrested” and “under surveillance” and with that knowledge. The word of his presence and partaking in the silent war of Nord-Kivu. Would only tell the world that the Rwandan Defence Force (RDF) is sponsoring them and behind it. They are using M23 as proxies and using their personnel to “win” the war. That’s it…

Why else would a “jail-bird” for over a decade return in the dark and without fanfare?

It’s because they didn’t want the world to know and the scheme of supremacy isn’t over yet. The CNDP and M23 is intertwined and the recent developments just proves it even further. Now we can question the authorities of Kigali. As they had him under their wings and they let him fly… Peace.

RDC: Mouvement du 23 Mars (M23) – Official Communique du 3 Decembre, 2023 (03.12.2023)

RDC: Mouvement du 23 Mars (M23) – Update du 30 Novembre 2023 (30.11.2023)

DRC: FARDC-FDLR – “Will the unholy alliance be torn asunder”?

In a statement read by Congolese army spokesman Major General Sylvain Ekenge, soldiers of the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of Congo (FARDC) were urged not to establish or maintain contacts with the Rwandan FDLR rebels. “The Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo hereby inform all military personnel of any rank that they are strictly and uncompromisingly prohibited from entering into or maintaining any contact, for any reason whatsoever, with the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda,” the statement read, a copy of which was obtained by POLITICO. CD” (Politico.CD – ‘DRC: FARDC soldiers banned from maintaining contact with FDLR’ 22.11.2023).

That the FARDC released this statement is very telling. The Democratic Republic of Congo Armed Forces have tried to distance itself and keep it shielded from the world to know. The FARDC have made several deals apparently and this is why the Wazalendo is also participating in the combats against the M23 in Province of Nord-Kivu.

The DRC Authorities are in a pickle here as they are collectively using “militias” with a questionable reputation. They are aligned themselves with “genocidaires” and guerrilla fighters, which isn’t representing the sovereign nation or the cause of the DRC. No, they are aligned with armed groups that have sole missions and would be in conflict with other sovereigns in the Greater Lakes region as well. Just like the other proxy militias that have intelligence, arms supply and even training from the likes of Rwanda, Uganda and even Burundi. Therefore, these sorts of enterprises isn’t new.

That the FARDC is revealing it now. It comes as no surprise, as the speculations and the admission in itself just shows what sort of bedfellows the state has. The FDLR isn’t the friendly neighbourhood watch. No, it is genocidal guerrilla outfit, which are there to end the regime in Kigali, Rwanda. They are now fighting the M23, as they are believed and could easily be sponsored by the Rwandan government. That wouldn’t be shocking and there are also ties to Kampala. Therefore, in the interests of FDLR. This is a beneficial enterprise, as they get to weak and stop the progress of Kagame’s men within the DRC. While the FARDC gets more guns into combat and possibly strengthen its ranks by the alliance.

We knew the ones in the realm of M23 and supporters of their cause was saying FDLR was a part of the mission. However, that wasn’t verified and they could have said so just to vilify the enemy. That part of warfare isn’t new and is common practice. Alas, the reality is that the FARDC and the DRC government have now said this.

We should expect them to continue to be on the battlefield. As they are allies and they are brothers-in-arms. I don’t expect them to leave or stop fighting the M23 in Nord-Kivu. They will be there and FARDC will say it’s “hearsay” or “propaganda”. While everyone knows the FDLR and how they operate. Therefore, this here is a foolish enterprise, but proves what sort of people the DRC Government trusts to defend itself at the moment.

This also shows how the FARDC has to align itself with guerrillas and mercenaries to be able to fight an insurgency. It doesn’t have enough trained personnel or guns to beat it alone. The borders and the integrity of fragile. When the likes of M23 can easily violate it and make attempts to control more territories. That is a defeated national state and this is what surely depresses Kinshasa.

Kinshasa is just seeing Goma and the Province of Nord-Kivu burning. While it cannot stop the fire. They have no fire-trucks or enough fire-men to pull it off. That’s why it takes in random people hoping they can fix. However, I wouldn’t trust them, but then again, I’m not the FARDC or the high ranking officials vouching for the FDLR. Peace.

RDC: Nord Kivu – Memorandum de la Population du Groupement Bambo et Mutanda (19.11.2023)

RDC: Twirwaneho – Dennocer l’Attaque de Villages Banyamulenge par une Force INCONNUE (17.11.2023)

RDC: Province du Nord-Kivu – Le Gouverneur – Communique Officiel (18.11.2023)

RDC: Mouvement du 23 Mars (M23) – Mot d’Introduction du President du M23 a l’Occasion de la Conference de Presse Tenue a Bunagana le 18/11/2023 (18.11.2023)

Opinion: Will M23 reach Goma like in 2012?

This is a gut feeling and it’s not a good one. We have been here before and it’s tragic that things becomes like this. That the more things changes, the more they stay the same. Alas, the FARDC and its allies are supposed to be able to compete. The seemingly clear picture is that the M23 are advancing and seemingly getting closer to Goma.

That’s where the objective and goal is. To take Goma and occupy it like it did on the 20th November 2012. It would be an achievement to do it again. Especially, considering the East African brigades and the MONUSCO. Also, the FARDC and other militias who is partaking and participating on the battlefield to destroy M23.

Alas, I am just seeing the picture, as the stories and the movement is moving along. It is just days away or maybe max a few weeks. It depends on the manpower of the FARDC and the amount of guerrillas it gets behind the cause. At this very moment… it seems to be turning this way.

That the insurgency and the rebel army, the guerrilla with questionable ties to Kigali and Kampala is getting closer to a major city. It is getting to Goma and we should see it coming. The warfare and the bloody battles is saying so. The whole movement and the drive seems to be there. They are targeting to reach or be in the realm of where they were in 2012. We are seeing it and should be worried.

This is destroying the Province of Nord-Kivu. No denying in that. Villages and towns are being burned. M23 and the government troops are ensuring a total war. There is no positive news and only a bloodshed. A bloody war created out of hostilities and out of personal interests.

The M23 didn’t rise to the occasion out of nowhere and the backers wants currency in return. They want to eat and enjoy the spoils of war. That’s why they are there to begin with. It doesn’t matter the cost or the possible setbacks of doing so. No, it is the gems, the stones and whatever else the M23 can take. That is what is mattering and there will no difference now.

The Wazalendo, FDLR and whoever else who is on the side of FARDC. They have to be able to defend and stand their ground. Because M23 is brutally assaulting them and stopping them from defending themselves. They are hit and cannot move.

Just wait to they reach Sake and becomes really hostile. When they are there… they know where they are going and where it benefits them. That what the world should know and take a listen. This conflict costs lives. It is murder on a large scale and it barely makes headlines, if even bulletins. This is a silent conflict, but with blazing guns. The civilians and citizens are paying the price.

The M23 and it’s backers must be proud of what they have done so far. They are earning and have an ability to push the government forces back. That must be humbling but also very defeating. As there are no hope and only more bloodshed.

This conflict deserves recognition. However, it will only make the news like it did in 2012. The moment the convoys and brigades of M23 walks in the streets of Goma and sits down with locals to enjoy a water-hole. That’s what they done and they will proclaim a plan to invade Kinshasa. However, we know that will fizzle out and they will have enough just to settle with a cessation of hostilities agreement. So, that the parties can reconfigure each other and stop killing innocent civilians. Peace.

RDC: Declaration des Candidates President de la Republique suit au Cadre de Concertation Organise par la CENI le 13 Novembre 2023 (16.11.2023)