
“I am ready to go for the chairmanship of the African Union. I have been consulting widely. I think I am ready to serve the continent of Africa. Africa deserves better” – Raila Odinga, Azimio Leader (KBC Channel1News, 15.02.2024).
By the time of 2025 there is a need for a new Chairman of the African Union after Moussa Faki Mahamat who has held the office in two terms and was only allowed to be re-elected once after being elected first in 2017. Therefore, his term is in the endgame now and this is why Odinga comes into play.
Raila Odinga the “Baba” of Kenya is now trying to sway himself internationally. Now he cannot run on the remarks or the tales of old in Kenya. Odinga must make himself heard and recognized across the Continent. If he wants this… he must seek allies and fast. Because he needs them and they need to vouch for him.
Odinga cannot trust the East African Community (EAC) has his backing. That first has to announced and he needs sureties from President Ruto on that front. Odinga needs to trust Ruto and that he will play offensive for his cause. Ruto have to say that their candidate and who he wants to get elected. If that happens and God willing… then Odinga might have backing from other EAC states like Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, Somalia, and South Sudan. These can possibly stand behind him, if he is the official candidate of Kenya and the Head of State tries to sell him to the neighbors. However, that is far from enough.
That’s where the trouble remains. We cannot even be sure if the IGAD nations of Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Sudan wants him. Kenyan diplomacy hasn’t been strong in IGAD and at this point. The goodwill of Juba and South Sudan can help Odinga, but we don’t know if that is enough.
The ECOWAS and SADC nations are whole another ballgame. Where several factors of interests in combination of old grudges. There is nothing set in stone. Odinga have to play and be cordial with the francophone nations too. These has to feel supported and that his weight matters. We can even wonder if the Northern nations like Mauritania, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, or Egypt will ever vote for him.
Then you have the Comores, Cape Verde, Madagascar, and other island nations where you can wonder if he will have any sort of function or possibility to reach. It is hard enough seeing Odinga getting the votes of Niger, Mali, or Burkina Faso. Unless he wants to be a challenger to the old order and wants to be the future in the African Union (AU). That’s something to be seen, but then he will alienate Nigeria or even Ghana for that matter. Therefore, it isn’t a easy game to play.
We can wonder how Odinga will play this one out. He has campaigned all his life for Presidency. That’s how it feels like and he has fought for his position all the time. This is why his up to the task. Alas, that might also be his disadvantage, as he will play by the rules that has been the standard in his nation. Odinga might try to think and consider the implications, as if it was elections in Kenya.
Raila Odinga is a seasoned politician and a man of all seasons. He can stand on his own. While this will be a burden. We can wonder if he is capable or this will be a solo mission that will pre-occupy him. Because some will feel that his leaving a chapter behind and someone else can take his place. However, until his elected and gotten into office. The ones willing to do so… should chill and await further instructions. Odinga will not mess around and will act swiftly.
Raila is a character and a leader who has been tested. We can wonder if he will use the formula of Building Bridges or the OKOA vibes. Hard to know really… but he must sell his candidacy and get feedback that they want him. Unless he wants to run on vibes and not organize it correctly.
This is a free for all and you can wonder if it will have any setbacks. Whatever it is… Harambee House should be happy and so should everyone else. This will take time and be costly for Odinga. He will not be as involved or able to test the authorities in Kenya. That’s a gift to Ruto in itself. As Odinga has to travel, experience and be in talks across the continent. There is nothing given here, and he should know…
He has played with fire and been burned. Odinga knows the price of losing. Surely, he wants to avoid that this time. Peace.