
Just as the tensions are running high in Juba. There Declassified Report from the South Sudan Intelligence is leaked online. What it is stating is significant and speaks volume of how things are working.
Not that the report from the South Sudan was shocking. Neither was the timelines and what was in the leaked report. It was more dropping some more insights and such. That’s why I am only dropping parts of the Conclusions. As the reports itself is digestible and it’s not a hard read.
It is interesting timing of the leak and when it went online. Just as the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army – (In Opposition) (SPLM/A-IO) have ceased participation with the NTC and R-JMEC. So, the President and SPLM-IG has addressed it too. Therefore, it has to be some underlying reasons for the leak and revealing this report.
That’s why I am handling the report with caution. Since, the tensions between Kiir and Machar is escalating and they need to sit-down. There is a need to talk and settle the scores. Instead of creating space to compete on the battlefield. These two has fought in a civil war before… and we don’t need to see them order and decree a new war.
However… here is the vital parts of the conclusions of the report.
Conclusion Coup Number 1 – 2013:
“In contrast, the opposition made no attempt to return the goodwill or to progress efforts to stabilise South Sudan. At each stage of the peace negotiations, the primary goal of the opposition led by Riek Machar was to undermine the government and to overthrow President Kiir. These efforts were concretely put in motion with military assistance from foreign entities and continuous attempts to delay, stall and compromise peace efforts. Ultimately, Riek Machar’s signature of ARCSS in August 2015 was triggered only by internal factions within SPLM/A-IO and not by a genuine attempt to power share as evidenced by his own words a month before on 8 July 2015 when he declared that should President Kiir not resign then the “citizens have every right to rise up and overthrow his regime”. This imbalance of efforts was overlooked by the international community and the opposition gained significant traction as Riek Machar was provided with extensive powers as First Vice-President in 2016. Yet even then, Riek Machar was still plotting to overthrow President Kiir in furtherance of his own grand ambitions to be President of the Republic of South Sudan. This culminated in the attempted coup on 8 July 2016” (South Sudan Intelligence Report, 2022).
Conclusion Coup Number 2 – 2016:
“Following his return to Juba in April 2016, Riek Machar purported to promote peace, unity and solidarity with the government. On 8 May 2016, he called for “forgiveness and reconciliation in South Sudan”.291 On 22 May 2016, Riek Machar attended prayers at a predominantly ethnic Dinka church on Sunday, telling the congregation “that peace and reconciliation will enable national healing and ensure stability.”292 He even took on more responsibility in his role as First Vice-President and on 5 June 2016, he took charge of the file for the implementation of the September 2012 cooperation agreements between South Sudan and Sudan, with consensus from President Kiir. However, the evidence from telephone intercepted communications from the same period reveal that Riek Machar as First Vice President of the Transitional Government of National Unity plotted a coup to seize power on 8 July 2016 to fulfil his ambition to become the President of South Sudan. Whilst he was presenting a unified front for the international community, in the background he was at the same time preparing forces in support of the SPLM/A-IO to carry out the coup and used support from a foreign government, the Republic of the Sudan, to provide his forces with the necessary arms and ammunition. As the coup failed at its first attempt during his meeting with President Salva Kiir and Second Vice President James Wanni Igga in the President’s office, Riek Machar never returned to resume the reconciliation talks that had been taking place between the leaders of the TGoNU. Instead, he continued the conflict that caused great loss of life including the deaths of civilians, knowing from his experience over many years of conflicts in South Sudan and Sudan that such killings were bound to take place” (South Sudan Intelligence Report, 2022).
With all of this in mind. We just have to follow Juba and what these two decides to do. It becomes like this… when the R-ARCSS is failing. The SPLM/A-IO or SPLM-IG has to figure out their way forward. Hopefully without ordering war and sending the youth to fight their battles.
President Kiir and First Vice President Machar needs to do the right thing. There is stipulations and protocols for them to follow. They need to find the mechanisms and the forums to find the way of solving this. Because, we can worry that this become to hot and fragile. We know these two can order and fix it.
Machar can be the fall guy for the past transgressions, but we don’t know who ordered the attacks on the bases in Upper Nile and Unity State. As well, as putting Machar under house arrest. While his been asking IGAD to intervene and help out with the lack of progress. The SPLM-IG and SPLM/A-IO needs to find ways to resolve this. I am not saying that is easy and the egos have to be humbled. They need to humiliate themselves and carry possible losses. That for the betterment of the Republic and not over pitiful appointments or transgressions of late. Yes, that is painful, but these are men who can usher in peace in South Sudan.
These two men can be the first to ensure peace and stability in Juba. They can be known for finding peace and creating institutions in the Republic. That’s what they can be known for… but decreeing guns and conflict will only cause more pain and suffering. Which these two should avoid like the plague. Peace.


















