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The surge of deflections between the political parties in Uganda and how to live with it

Daily Monitor Museveni 031115

This is the round-up to the General Elections in 2016 in Uganda. Where we will see deflections like never before. There will be run from people going from wherever to Go-Forward and people leaving the parties after missing their spots to become Independent candidates in the polls.

Deflections are norm and allowed, but there are something about timing and explaining it. Like if you’re been somewhere for long and is tarnished by the way the party leads, then it feels natural to leave. Which many of the big-men has done in Uganda for that reason we have FDC. They are an reaction to the ruling party NRM. UPC has had people leaving to NRM in the Past, like Hon. Amama Mbabazi was at certain time a piece of that puzzle. Dr. Kizza Besigye was a piece of NRM until the fallout. Hon. Amama Mbabazi went finally away; when he got kicked out and Dr. Ruhakana Rugunda his childhood friend took his place as the PM in Uganda.

There many NRM losers all over the country who is deflecting to the Go-Forward Group and Amama Mbabazi. This proves that there is slot open for sore people and a reach for surge that hasn’t happen. Because for many NRM people Dr. Kizza Besigye and Gen. Mugisha Muntu haven’t had the power and spirit of the NRM party, that means that Amama Mbabazi has that or else he is promising to feed them. There is not easy to know what is what. Even FDC members and kind of high ranking members like Mathias Mpuunga the Walk to Work head honcho gone over to Go-Forward.

The validation from JEEMA, DP, CP, UFA and PPP gives an edge to Go-Forward. But their powerbases is small and has been small. Even if all arguments are that Dr. Kizza Besigye has lost the last times against the ghost of all elections Yoweri Kaguta Museveni and National Resistance Movement. The President has won everything since gripping power with the civil war to tore down UPC and Okello’s and all the other former short term presidents. Museveni has secured first a few elections as sole party and as a sole candidate. Sole Candidacy is his wish. I am sure that if he could run as he please then this election in 2016 it wouldn’t be any FDC, TDA and him!

Go-Forward and the allegiance that is with him, gives him an edge. That is even though FDC has the long standing force of the opposition in the country. So here we are, people are crying foul. I have cried foul over Gilbert Bukenya, but that is because was a hot-minute on the outside of the Movement throwing shades at the President and calling him a problem. And seconds later when he offers a position in the NRM CEC he crawls back.  The president might not offer him a place in the NRM CEC, but I am sure NRM has promised a nice position to Alhaji Nasser Ntege Ssebagala for his allegiance.

But there aren’t just the big men who switch allegiance; it’s also on the grassroots-level where members are burning their membership card and switching alliance to another party. That should be worrying for NRM to see that on the Social Media and how their cards are blatantly being discarded like worthless mud.

Though I am sure the result of the election is already picked by the Electoral Commission and the lack of electoral reform to gain population support and not support by the NRM-Regime, it will surely be set for yet another term for Yoweri Kaguta Museveni.

Even if this is surely the end-game we can still see that the movement of people is changing. The sadness is to see that the movement between opposition parties making sour feelings between them; especially with the Second Round K.O. and stop of the consultation between the FDC and Go-Forward. I expected it to fall to pieces by how it ran into sand after the smaller parties of the TDA endorsing Amama Mbabazi over Dr. Kizza Besigye.

The Movement and Museveni will do whatever to destabilize the other parties, rule and conquer. Therefore he had to say at the NRM CEC at Kololo Independence Ground that nobody in the party shouldn’t say that somebody is “Pro-Mbabazi” or “Pro-FDC” because the party is the ones that matters.

That the NRM-Youtb Brigade/League leaders of   Omodo-Omodo and Adam Ruzindana has officially not endorsed should be sad view for the NRM since they even had been rounded up in August to change their stance from this to support Mzee. Seems like it didn’t work even after being under siege by the NRM-Regime! 

There are different ways and easy jumping ships so often between parties proves that it can buy and it isn’t ideological reasons between it. That is what Go-Forward camp should ask them since they get deflectors from all over the map in short space of time. Will it be a sand-castle that the wave from the sea will brush away or can it be sustained?

FDC has a situation and is used to be in the war-zone through the elections and being in trouble with police for trying to be a political party. The Go-Forward is doing everything for the first time, though Hon. Amama Mbabazi has been in election, but then in friendly territory in those times under the wings of the Mzee.

The deflections is a natural thing, especially the ones who has lost their Flag-Bearer positions in the NRM is surely natural to try to get other ways into the Parliament and Constituencies again, though their stripes should be wacked because their couldn’t handle to lose for somebody else, even if the primaries we’re filled with malfunctions, pre-ticket ballots and general rigging.

The FDC can that has decided to move on; can have done that for ideological reasons. If so then it’s should be seen as okay. Secondly if it is a tactical move instead of ideological move; then we have more to question the person that goes from a set off fixed situations with a party actually functioning, though there was some Electoral malfunctions some of their internal election.

Some facts from the CCEDU

“In advancing this objective, CCEDU sought accreditation and deployed a technical team of eight to observe the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) Elections held at a Special Delegates’ Conference on 12th June 2015 at the UMA main exhibition Hall, Lugogo, Kampala” (…)”Claims of vote buying were received by the observers. Allegedly, some camps were sending delegates mobile money in a bid to secure their votes. These claims were not verified. A pledge by one of the candidates vying for the position of Secretary General to supply smart phones to districts secretaries general and another candidate for the post of Treasury General to contribute Shs10m to a party Savings and Credit Society were interpreted by some as an effort to induce support” (…)”It was noted that delegates did not heed the call by the Electoral Commission that no campaigns should take place during polling time. Unfortunately, there were no measures to curb this vice” (CCEDU, 2015).

So the surety that the ones leaving from the other parties like FDC/DP/UPC/PPP/UFA or Independents to the NRM has to promised something because they know what they have done and how they have done it to get it.

Independents can do as they please and show allegiance or alliances as they please. Nothing can be taken for granted by any parties they can be bought or ordered, even if they want to be by-partisan. That is justified, though it is a favour to them all if they know where they have them. Independents can either fill their pockets or actually stand for something. So if their flag their place and who honours who. Because they can became pawns on the chess set and easy capped if they don’t take a stand.

Though we will see more movement and deflections we can see the difference between ideology and tactical movement from the politicians. There will be some sour feelings and hurt. There will be some sees it as betrayal. The betrayal is when it so not justified by their recent actions and sudden move to do it for self-serving instead loyalty to party. Independents can move as they please, but the ones moving from any other parties can be questioned, even if it reasonable. Prof. Gilbert Bukenya kissed the ring of President Museveni. That is the truth!

Deflections from the parties will happen. From the FDC and NRM, from all the other parties as well for different reasons and if UPC will be split in two it wouldn’t  surprise anybody with the different of opinion between Jimmy Akena and Olara Otunnu. That could easily be two separate organizations. And leave to more deflections. Especially if they continue as today to address themselves as presidents of the UPC! There will be deflections from there as well.

Deflections from the parties occur neither you like it or not, because that is part of the political game and life. There will be more leaving any party into the General Election and move for possible gain. The men and woman who does that has to address themselves and argue for their move. As the men and woman who is left behind has to respect it, depending on the motive of it all. Even if the motive is only a place in their party-organizational structure or get a free place in higher organ; instead of doing the work as politician to gain the constituencies trust.

What do you think? Peace.  

Reference:

CCEDU – ‘FDC Party Elections – Observation Reports’ (17.07.2015)

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First Nomination Day of the Presidential Aspirants in Uganda

Vote M7 031115

Today and tomorrow are the days where the stadiums will be filled for the nomination rallies in Uganda for before the General Election in 2016. This will be for Yoweri Kaguta Museveni (NRM), Amama Mbabai (Go-Forward) and Dr. Kizza Besigye (FDC). Even the businesses in central parts of Kampala are shut-down while people are going to Mbabazi’s Nakivubo stadium. It’s also been hectic and jams around Ntinda today. The Police have had check-points on the roads into the Nakivubo Stadium today! A strong police presence in Kampala is strong today!

Its election time so the NRM-Regime does something to the citizens they have actually given free fuel and free money before the Nomination Rally at Kololo Independence Ground today! Surely election season, things can sometimes become free!

Amama Mbabazi: “We are fully aware of the election obstacles in Uganda and we are going to overcome them”.

Yoweri Kagua Museveni extract from the recent speech to the NRM CEC 01.11.2015:

“I need to caution our members about branding each other ─ saying this, is “pro-Mbabazi” “pro-FDC”, etc. Ugandans know how to speak for themselves. Those who want to join Mr. Mbabazi can speak for themselves. Nobody else should speak for them. If they are acting as infiltrators, we shall discover them and deal with the infiltration”.

Mathias Mpuunga: “Enough is enough. 30 years is too long. We are here to assure you that we are ready for change” (…) “Opposition political parties, all regions of this country are going forward. We are going fooorward”.

Closed Schools 031115

The crowds coming to Kololo and the NRM stadium has been shipped in with buses from Jinja Road from all over the country and also closed local schools in town to support the President.

Earlier today this has happen:

Museveni 031115

Candidate Museveni duly nominated at 10.21 am, where he was with the Electoral Commission Chairman Eng. Dr. Badru M. Kiggundu hands him nomination certificate.

Prof Byra - UPF

Professor Venasius Baryamureeba has also been certificated the nomination for the Presidential Aspirant, and he got nominated at 12:00 Am at Makerere University Business School (MUBS). The Professor has himself thanked the Uganda Police Force for handling the crowd well today. Prof Barya said this today: “Today is when we begin a serious journey of beginning back our country Uganda to the right track”.

Earlier reported that Charles Lwanga has arrived and been at the Electoral Commission has been accepted for his nomination as a Presidential Aspirant.  But later reports tell that he failed to fulfill requirements and also have the bank slip with the 20 million fee for the candidacy. So he will surely not run this 2016-2021.

Information from the Electoral Commission:

There been totally 48 picked nomination forms, the total 12 returned forms, 10 satisfied requirements for nomination has gotten the nomination certificate.

Nasser Ntege Ssebaggala 031115

One of candidates who have now returned his Presidential candidacy is Nasser Ntege Ssebaggala the former Mayor of Kampala.

President Museveni said at the Nomination Rally today: “I request your vote to finish what I have started plus new development programs for the country”.

Amama Mbabazi says this: “I am happy I came after President Museveni this is how things are going to be”.

Iganga LCV Vice Forman Gabula Ezra defects from the NRM to the Go-Forward.  Acting DP Publicity Secretary Paul Kakande has deflected from the party to Go-Forward today and Lango elders vouch for the Amama Mbabazi as well. The Lango elders gave him a walking stick as a “sign of respect”, they gave him that the Nomination rally at the Nakivubo Stadium and even some Lango supporters gave him a spear.

Amama 031115

The NRM Youth leaders Omodo-Omodo and Adam Ruzindana are at the Amama Mbabazi Nomination Rally today. There is reported to be some leaders from the Conservative Party also represented at the venue today! Uganda Federal Alliance’s Betti Kamya was also present at the Stadium. People’s Progressive Party has said it has supported the candidacy for Dr. Kizza Besigye three times and that has been in vain. So they now endorse Go-Forward now! Asuman Basaliirwa of the Justice Forum (JEEMA) said: “JEEMA will back Amama Mbabazi for and are positive for 2016 and is time for Amama” (…)”The country has only one problem…Mister Museveni”.  Former Tooro Kingdom Prime Minister Hon. Stephan Kaliba has endorsed Go-Forward! Medard Lubega Segona the Buganda Information Minster claims today: “gives credit to Amama Mbabazi for pilling pressure on Museveni to return Buganda property”.  Jimmy Akena claims to be the UPC President at the JPAM rally.

While somewhere else is Olara A. Otunnu claims to be the President of the UPC.  So while this is happening, who is really running the UPC? We have known for a while about the split and Otunnu and Akena wings of the Party… but the introduction of both leaders as leader of the Ugandan People’s Congress is a bit tricky on a day like this! Olara A. Otunnu said this: “All those who want the change should come together and unite to be one. Unite with Amama Mbabazi”. Mira Matembe said that this the motto of the country has changed from “For God and Country” to “For my stomach and my family” she continues: “Even Mbabazi realized that things had changed for the worst, that’s when he gave it (Regime) up!” (…)”NRM simply uses and discards its woman and youth”.

Dr. Abdi Bwanika will launch his candidacy for Precedency tomorrow and launch his campaign at the Nsambya Sharing Hall.

Dr. Ian Clarke who has run as Mayor for Makindye, he is now officially running for MP.

Important Notice for 5th of November:

Eng. Dr. Badru M. Kiggundu the Electoral Commission Chairman has told the media that he will have meeting with the Presidential Aspirants and Candidates so they can harmonize their campaigns on the 5th November.

Buses from Western Part of Uganda 031115

There was rumored about the buses from the other parts of the country for getting NRM-Supporters to Kololo Independence ground and the Nomination Rally of Yoweri Kaguta Museveni today. The issue and reports now is that the same people does not have a de-tour or return buses from the NRM. So certain NRM supporters from Up-Country are stuck at and around the Kampala Central Police Station and Bombo Road. For the simple reason there is no official transport back to Lira, Gulu and Arua. This was from where they was shipped from to get to the venue and start of the Campaign for 2016 for Mzee.

Press statement from The Democratic Alliance (TDA):

“Hon. Amama Mbabazi was successfully nominated a presidential candidate today morning. He is currently addressing a mammoth rally at Nakivubo War Memorial Stadium. Go Forward is part of the forces of change under The Democratic Alliance (TDA)”.

This is interesting start to the official start of this presidential election in February 2016. Tomorrow is the others candidates start as official candidates.  As the big one tomorrow is Dr. Kizza Besigye.  And the other candidates that might have a clarity to run; even if we have a mighty big chance of the NRM-Regime to rig the coming elections in favor of Yoweri Kaguta Museveni and the NRM, then we shouldn’t be surprised. The thing we can see if there will calm and clarity and if the UPF will keep their heads cool! That is something to look forward to… see if they can achieve that.

Kizza Beisgye 041115

Official Program for Tomorrow:

NOMINATION PROGRAMME FOR COL. DR. KIZZA BESIGYE ON 04th NOVEMBER, 2015:

07.00 am SUPPORTERS ASSEMBLE AT DESIGNATED LOCATIONS

08.00 am PROCESSIONS START FROM NAJJANANKUMBI

10.00 am PROCESSION ARRIVES AT BANDA

10.30 am PROCESSION ARRIVES AT KIREKA

10.40 am PROCESSION ARRIVES AT BWEYOGERERE

11.00 am PROCESSION ARRIVES AT NAMBOOLE

11.00 am ARRIVAL OF FLAGBEARER AT NAMBOOLE

12.00 am FLAGBEARER LEAVES NAMBOOLE FOR NAKIVUBO STADIUM

01.30 pm ARRIVAL OF INVITED GUESTS

02.30 pm SPEECHES MADE BY THE LOCAL LEADERS

02.45 pm SPEECH BY THE FDC PARTY CHAIRMAN

02.50 pm THE LORD MAYOR GREETS THE PEOPLE

03.00 pm THE PRESIDENT CONSERVATIVE PARTY GREETS THE PEOPLE

03.10 pm SPEECH BY THE FDC PARTY PRESIDENT

03.20 pm FLAG BEARERS SPEECH

06.00 pm END OF THE RALLY AND ENTERTAINMENT

Daily Monitor Museveni 031115

Party Partisan media, really? Aga Khan is surely loyal to M7 🙂 Don’t think so while looking at that?

This is just so you know and this will be interesting. Peace!

NRM Poor Youth Forum – Kampala Chapter at “Gun-Point” while denouncing their support of Amama Mbabazi presidential aspiration in the NRM (19.08.2015)

Kampala190815

Press Release from the NRM Poor Youth after special press breifing in Kampala:

BREAKING NEWS:

THe military police, commanded by president M7 personal Assistant by the name Molly connived with police to parade some members of NRM POOR YOUTH FORUM Kampala Chapter to force them to denounce Amama Mbabazi in a press conference at Silver Spring Hotel Bugoloobi..Our members have refused to say anything but police has sieged the hotel..No one is allowed in and out now. Our members are on gun point to denounce mbabazi.

NRM POOR YOUTH FORUM was founded to mobilise the Poor and marginalised youth of Uganda to oppose the dictatorship of President Museveni and his Henchmen.
The NRM POOR YOUTH FORUM is fully committed to its cause and we are hopeful that our presidential candidate Amama mbabazi is the next president of Uganda 2016.

All our structures a cross the country are still intact and committed to the cause.

You can, I can.

Luzindana Adam Buyinza
NRM POOR YOUTH FORUM

Look at this as well:

Also this:

While on NBS:

Peace!

Important to know:

(Its been updated at 19:36, 19.08.2015 with the NBS TV Footage from the venue and commentary – Since it’s so compelling to the tale).

A short timeline before the Coup d’etat in Burundi

Cartoon+May+8+2015

 

Timeline until the Coup d’etat in Burundi! 

The Minister of Internal Affairs publicly stated thus: “My advice to politicians planning to vie for the presidency is to prepare to knowing that they will contest against the current President.” On 21st March 2014 both the CNDD-FDD and the Presidency spokesmen announced that is was only the party congress that was empowered to nominate a presidential candidate.He was simply hoodwinking Burundians while buying time the same way Museveni is hoodwinking Ugandans.

In January 2015 CNDD-FDD Senator Richard Nimbashe gave a press release opposing Nkurunziza’s third term bid and went further to state that the same view is held by many party members. He was immediately expelled from the party, senate and his position at the Land Commission (CNTB).

On 13th February 2014 the National Intelligence Service (SNR) issued a Memo warning the President against attempt to seek a third term. It advised him to cede power at the end of his second term for the good of himself, his family and the party. Instead, the Director of SNR Gen Godfroid Niyombare was dismissed from service.

On 1st March 2015 former CNDD-FDD national Chairman escaped from the main prison after serving for 8 of the 13 years. He later told a foreign radio station that he had been assisted by top government officials and some fighters who were in the bush. He claimed that he had supporters in all government institutions.

On 6th March 2015 the Catholic Bishop of Bujumbura Evariste Ngoyegoye preached against the 3rd term thus: “After analysis of the Arusha Peace Agreement and the constitution, by questioning our hearts as citizens who love their country and as shepherds of the church, we say that Burundians have agreed that the person elected to lead Burundi can not go beyond two terms of five years each”. The statement sent shock waves throughout the country given Burundi’s religious structure where 62% are Catholic, 6% Anglican and the remaining being shared by different smaller christian denominations and a significant number of Muslims. Right from the inception of the country’s violent history, the Catholic church was accused of being a “church of silence” for its liberal stand. The Bishop declared nine days of prayers for peace and transparency in the elections.

On 11th March 2015 CNDD-FDD Chairman Pascal Nyabenda told the BBC that opinions polls had indicated that CNDD-FDD supporters, the Bagumyaibanga (those who keep a secret) want President Nkurunziza to seek reelection. Immediately after, the party Spokesman stated that there had not been a survey for such opinion polls and that the party had other people who could stand for the presidency.

On 14th March 2015 the CNDD-FDD Council of Elders which is the highest body of the party met in the presence of President Nkurunziza and overwhelmingly rejected his third term bid.

On 23rd March 2015 a statement signed by 17 members of the CNDD-FDD top executive body urged Nkurunziza not to seek a third term. Among them were the Spokesmen for both the party and the presidency. Two days later ten of the seventeen dissenters were sacked from the party and their positions. The statement from the Presidency accused them of conspiracy to destabilise the party and the country. This is what happened with the likes of MP Ssekikubo and group and all others suspected of being pro-Mbabazi.

The Imbonerakure – a paramilitary and armed youth wing of CNDD-FDD has been at the forefront of the push for third term for President Nkurunziza throughout the country. Their equivalency in Uganda is the Crime Preventers and patriotic clubs members whom the Police is providing with paramilitary skills in exchange for supporting Museveni’s sole candidature.

On 26th April 2015 the CNDD-FDD congress nominated Nkurunziza as the party’s flag bearer. The following day 27th April, protesters opposed to his third term took to the streets of the city’s suburbs. The general elections are scheduled for May 26th 2015 while the Presidential elections are scheduled for June 26th 2015. Just as is the case with Museveni,separating the two elections is designed to give the incumbent an added advantage over other contenders.

The Constitutional Court quashed the objection to his reelection by upholding that he was eligible for reelection. The Vice President of the constitutional court Justice Slyvere Nimpagaritse who was one of the 7 man panel that determined the petition fled to Rwanda citing that the government had coerced the Justices
with death threats.

Immediately after the court’s pronouncement, President Nkurunziza registered as a Presidential candidate seeking another term in the upcoming June 2015 Presidential elections.

Burundi Cartoon

 

The International events that happen on the Burundian the third-term proposal:

On 27th February 2015 the USA Deputy Secretary of State had cautioned thus: “We hope that the presidential elections will follow the Arusha Peace Agreement concerning term limits”.

Just a few days into the protests, Foreign Affairs Ministers from the East Africa Community member states visited Burundi.

Rwanda’s President Kagame told a convention in Switzerland in reference to the protests in Burundi thus: “If your own citizens tell you that we do not want you to do that or to lead us, may be they are saying you have not done enough for them.”

Russia blocked a proposal by the UN Security council to issue a statement on the crisis in Burundi by arguing that: “its not the business of the security council and the UN charter to get involved in constitutional matters of sovereign states” said Russia’s Ambassador to UN.

South Africa’s President appointed the Minister in the Presidency Jeff Rodebe as his special envoy with a task of carrying a special message to Nkurunziza for him to step aside from running for a third term.

On 5th March the EU warned that running for a third term was risky.The AU Commission Chief said that it was clear that there shouldn’t be a third term for the incumbent adding that; “prohibition and repression of peaceful demonstrations expressing legitimate concerns would violate the conditions necessary for a credible and transparent vote”. The head of the EU election monitoring mission in Burundi expressed concern over violence.

The USA Secretary of State criticised Nkurunziza’s desire to cling to power.

The ICC Chief Prosecutor said that his office was closely following events in Burundi. The UN Special Envoy for the Great Lakes appealed for calm.

Belgium has suspended funding for the elections and support to the Police while the USA has threatened sanctions.

The UN denied earlier reports that Secretary General Moon had requested Uganda’s Museveni to intervene in Burundi: “We dont have any comment on what the Uganda authorities said and we did not put out a read out of the meeting. our efforts in Burundi involve getting the parties to engage in dialogue with each other and have nothing to do with military intervention”.

The Presidents of the Four Presidents of the East African Community member states met yesterday in Dar Es Salaam over the crisis in Burundi.

To see more EAC reactions look at the following blog-page: https://minbane.wordpress.com/2015/05/14/eac-secretariat-and-heads-of-state-consulted-on-the-situation-in-burundi-13-05-2015/  

Peace.

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