After Zimbabwe, people have started to blaze the horns and expecting other dictators to fall. Well, I am humbly saying, I hope so, but don’t expect so. Unless, there are vital changes, unless they lose their support and their weapons behind them. If the support and armies are not behind them, than the Robert Mugabe story can be repeated elsewhere. But it will be different from state to state, from president to president. As each President has built around a stronger or weaker system of orders, strength of institutions and also personal cult around themselves. We also know they are using their myths and their state media to serve their interests.
President’s that I will honor with a mention are Joseph Kabila, Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, Pierre Nkurunziza, Faure Gnassingbe, Hailemariam Desalegn, Isias Afwerki, Omar Al-Bashir, Idriss Deby, Paul Biya, Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasango, Mahamadou Issoufou, Paul Kagame and Ismaïl Omar Guelleh. These are a list of honorable mentions, there several more that could be put on a list, but these was the first to mention, if feel someone is left behind. Please leave that in the comments down below(I know that sounds like a Youtuber, but I had to take inspiration from somewhere).
All of these men in their republics knows that they use power and security organizations to quell, silence and oppress their opposition. They are keeping control of the state reserves and has their party as filled of loyalists and cronies. All of this states are militarized, there is state controlled media and has various of different rules. They are strict and controlling from the state houses and the freedom in these states are limited. The state and business are usually connected with the President and his family. If not there are cronies who also have business and fortunes. So the dictators are for the moment having control and making sure the people is not uprising.
What we can know is that if these dictators take it to far and the fear for the repercussion from the state. So as long as the public and opposition are detained for arbitrary arrests and citizens hurt after demonstrations. While the state reserves and donor funds are eaten by the elite, while the countries are kept poor. As long as the republic’s are poor, than they still need more foreign donors and supply. So it is good for the dictators to keep their nations poor, as the Western and Multi-National Organization can continue to supply them with non-binding funds. That they are free to use on military and one themselves, instead of building institutions and good governance, it is all controlled by the one man on top and his loyal subjects around.
This is well known and for different reasons, these men should always worry about their decisions and their capacity to rule. Nothing last for ever. There will be some who might want to take their place and replace them. Someone will always be opposition and fight for democratic values, but sooner or later they will succeed. It is just a matter of how and how long it takes.
They are all based on strong military control, even minor specialized groups who are like Presidential Guards/Republican Guards or Special Forces. These are controlled usually by either relations or trusted generals, who are loyal not to turn against the President. The Presidents promotes and demotes leaders inside their armies often, the same in the police force/service to compensate and also to make sure the old guard of warrior and soldiers who fought for the President. Will not be seen as a threat or have power to ever topple him. That is why they are trying to distance themselves from the ones who brought them to power, because they will know their inner-tactics; that is why the stalwarts and historicals are more public personas, but not people of power. Even if they did have so in past.
That is done to secure the role and secure the commander-in-chief, even the President always need the historical battles and origin story to keep himself relevant and prove his place. He don’t needs ones who fought with him and his cause. They will just ask for checks- and balances on the promises made in liberation and in the battles against previous oppressors. That is why they are not entangled with these, unless they give them phony medals and grant money, to hopefully silence them.
Still, with all the protocol and strength of the army, they are still vulnerable as they know this too. That why they are calculating and trying to find out the next person who wants their role and their positions. Which is why there are changes in their cabinets, Vice-Presidents and Prime Ministers. Until they find persons and people they trust to not ambitions to overpower them. Also, they want to stop other MPs and other voices to install hope in the population and to create popularity that is bigger then their personal cult and their teachings.
However, there are ways to bring them down by actually not fearing the state security organizations, waiting for the President to act swiftly without feeling the tensions within his own party. Like President Robert Mugabe did recently. If not actually know you have lost all legitimacy in recent elections, but not willing to step down like Yayha Jammeh. That was ECOWAS and Senegal who intervened on behalf of the newly elected President. Which was the reason for the dictator ending in Exile recently.
Therefore, we have to hope for leaders who have capacity to capture the pulse of the people who are oppressed, of the ones who are marginalized and the ones who are captured by the state. Since the dictatorships doesn’t give up easy, unless there is no escape. History has learned us that and therefore, the lesson needs to be learned. We in our time cannot give in and accept that the liberty, freedom and government are taken by one elite and one ruler.
Certainly, it will not be easy, the fight against oppressors will cost and take time. That is proven time in and time out. The same will happen here, but with their aging and their lack of control. Their trust in family members and trying to create family dynasties. They might fall like Mugabe. Even if some are sons of former presidents. Doesn’t mean they can continue owning the title and running the state. It is proven that is not accepted and that is all within reason. This is what happen in Zimbabwe and we understand if similar events transpire elsewhere.
In the end it is all up to the public for change, the public reactions and their demonstrations, boycotts and their inner works to dismantle the oppressive dictatorship. Often the international community and international counterparts will not intervene as they wants mineral resources and other commodities for cheap; and as long one partner can be bribed, the workers and resources don’t need to paid-in-full or proper. This prospers foreign investments and multi-national companies. This is not well-spoken of, but should be revealed, as it is so often shady dealings with resources sold or land to investors from these dictators. They are funding the state and military, that together with aid are keeping these regimes afloat.
With all this in mind, we have to continue the struggle against these men that are keeping people hostage and taking away freedom and liberty, freedom to assembly and to be activists. They are licensing and authorizing businesses and if people are allowed to have parties and civil society organizations. This are all in different ways, the same with the media and other public ways of sharing information. These are often controlled like all else are in society and in the republic.
We can just wonder if we let this repeat itself, let them continue to oppress and letting these multi-national corporations earn on this forms of government. If we can accept that aid and multi-national organizations keeping budgets and keeping them as leaders, because if these leaders would struggle more economically, more loyalists and more cronies would actually deflect quicker. Also, that if the economy struggle and the security organizations are not paid-off. They could instead of turning their weapons against the public, they could turn against the government/regime. So there are many ways together with public uprising that is needed to topple these dictatorships. Peace.
Well, the good news is not that there was a Swearing-In of President Museveni for his Seventh Term, bite me, it is not fifth, it’s Seventh! Got to teach the National Resistance Movement to count, after that the international media some recent history to not shave off the first decade in Power for Mr. Yoweri in Uganda.
The good news was:
“Department spokeswoman Elizabeth Trudeau said U.S. Ambassador to Uganda Deborah Malac and a visiting Washington-based official, along with several European and Canadian diplomats, abruptly left the inauguration after Museveni made negative remarks about the International Criminal Court in his inaugural address. She added that the U.S. also objected to Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir’s participation in the inauguration. Al-Bashir has been charged by the court for atrocities in Sudan’s western Darfur region” (Lee, 2016).
Because this set the perimeter of next inaugurations as Uganda is not the only country where the Opposition is under fire and where the human rights are squabbled for the Ruling Regime to control. But the reaction from the European Union representative and the United States is a bit late now. United States Government have supported them the Ugandan Government for three decades as the Ugandans have fought wars you wouldn’t touch with a your little finger. The European Union have done so in good faith and with the hopes that this will be one of their success stories as the beginning of Museveni terms he was actually sounding like a democratic ruler and had swagger like no-one else and even swallowed the Structural Adjustment Program; more than many other leaders did for long-term loans and direct-budget aid to the Ugandan government.
But that is not why the diplomates left the Inauguration of President Museveni at the Kololo Independence ground. They left the event in midst of the speech and everything because of mentioning of International Criminal Court, the discontent that exist in certain parts of Africa, as the ICC have target many African leaders and Warlords, while nearly none of the allies of European or American Government have been taken. Which make it seem like Post-Colonial tool and certain totalitarian, and Police State leaders feels that especially since they might be the next in line to be charged by the ICC.
Even on the second Live Presidential Candidate or the second #UGDebate President: “A founding signatory of the Rome Statute, on ICC: Yes we should be out of the ICC. ICC is not serious. It is partisan. There are so many people who should have been tried if they were serious. The way to go is to have our own African Criminal Court. Trying to work with ICC was a mistake”.
So if the American or European diplomats were surprised by the words uttered by the President, they should check his track-record, and are you naïve? He is the same brother who toyed with the worlds in the Nairobi talks in 1980s, muffled the involvement in Rwandan Patriotic Front, the direct involvement in wars in Democratic Republic Congo that got rid of both President Mobutu Sese Seko and President Laurent Kabila. His involvement in South Sudan and also the claimed help of President Nkurunziza after the coup d’état in 2015; there are too many instances where he has went to the gun for himself and others. So that he dislikes the ICC should be seen as natural for his Western Allies, that have given military experts and equipment over decades.
He used ties to Libya to get arms to bring down Obote, Obote whom he had a agreement with to get rid of Idi Amin. This man has done whatever to get power and get powers other places. He is ruthless and does not care how far he has to go to have it. He builds people up and burry them if they get ambition. So many men have fallen and so many fallen without the reason or the authorities have cleared the cases of the killings. Many men who have had honorable positions and been high up in the military have been silenced by the NRA/NRM. And this isn’t just rumors, this is known, but not something that is talked about.
So European diplomates and American ones, you have to consider your obligation and role in Uganda, the walkout and the assessment of that, is only a small embarrassment, but to cut donor-aid and military equipment would mean something. To endorse directly Dr. Kizza Besigye would be another force of change. That would be like Alassane Ouattara won over Laurent Gbabgo in Cote d’Ivoire in 2010. Who made his own army and took over power when the International Community recognized Ouattara in 2011 and later detained Ggabo. So there are possible ways of creating the changes, but hopefully without guns though that is the only thing President Museveni believes in.
I know he told at one point he wanted to be a Pastor, but over the time he became a gun-loving, bush-war and embezzlement patriarch who oppose the idea of any other human being having a vision of leadership in the country he is running.
That isn’t a beautiful picture, but there certain questions remain why the American and European were mad about this:
“After introducing ICC indictee Bashir, Museveni said: “We lost interest in the ICC. We thought they were serious.” Museveni said he had supported ICC at the beginning but realised that “ICC is a bunch of useless people” (Trending.co.ug, 2016).
This words uttered from the mouth apparently was too much from the Western Diplomates today. Together with them we’re also the invited and warranted President Bashir; for me some strange reason no problem with the other hectic and problematic despots, dictators, lingering Presidents and so on; that also showed-up for the event. Why no problem with Cameroonian Biya? Why no problem with President Obiang? Why not mad about President Mugabe? And list goes on of people who disrespect democratic values and freedoms in their countries… though not sanctioned by the ICC.
For being diplomates, they should have known at least about the words said by the man on the Presidential Debate in February 2016. The ICC has already issues within the African Nations and the African Union have had talks on removing itself from the International Criminal Courts because of Post-Colonial affairs and targeting African leaders. So with that in mind, this doesn’t help the cause for the Europeans or Americans unless they do something serious, a ruthless man like President Museveni. Needs the guns and equipment, if not he trade with Russians and trains together with North Koreans, he has done it before and will do it again. Even order second level army equipment from China instead of getting training and army deals with Americans. The Western diplomats should not be surprised and should know his history and how reckless he can behave.
Why do you think Hon. Paolo Muwanga even feared and was disgusted with the man? He even understood to what extend the President would go when he got into power. Since he spoke beautiful words as it was needed in the Bush, the people and international community supported him.
Now there a long run since 1986, lots of European and United States Presidents have been in Power and changed leadership, while the Ugandan leader have lingered on and not caught flack before now, really? Late to the Party or is it the later redeemer now?
The issue is that they have known he has these sentiments, as the escalated violence, detaining and use of army against his own citizens. We can see it with the recent Post-Election killings in Kasese, the pro-longed Northern Uganda Conflict that lasted since 1980s into peace agreement in 2006; and the Ugandan-Fueled guerrillas in the DR Congo.
So that he is a little rash and rough with the introduction of President Bashir is the issue all of sudden, is sorry to say a little weak tea as you have given way for him to do all the other activities and not really condemn that. This because President Museveni have been a needed ally in the region after the fall of Mobutu, that American Government had for so long; that is why President Clinton even praised Museveni together with other leaders.
Today should not be surprising, the European and American Diplomates should have known his sentiments on the ICC, and he want to be a great leader, so he would invite anyone who wanted to show-up. This here is just the proof of it, nobody expected President Obama or Chancellor Merkel or even President Hollande to attend: They would rather have a cup of tea then showing-up. The strangest was that the former loyal ally President Kagame was in the wind… but that just so the strained relationship.
Well, this was my two cents. Not beautiful… just the way it is; when you have trusted a man to fight for you and expecting him to be peace loving democratic values full of integrity and standing by for liberty and justice in his Nation, while they have for decades let him get away with murders, destabilizing neighbor countries and done other adventures without giving him much of even a slap on his face. Then you expect him to be the grandest man… you have lost the plot fellow Western Diplomates. Peace.
Lee, Matthew – ‘US diplomats walk out of Uganda president’s inauguration’ (12.05.2016) links: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/whitehouse/us-diplomats-walk-out-of-uganda-presidents-inauguration/2016/05/12/e461854c-1874-11e6-971a-dadf9ab18869_story.html?postshare=5891463086874273&tid=ss_tw
Trending.co.ug – ‘ICC is useless, says Museveni’ (12.05.2016) link: http://trending.co.ug/politics/icc-useless-says-museveni