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Opinion: Today Mzee said he will have the Crime Preventers as a reserve army, what will he use it for?

October 26, 2015 – Crime Preventers

Democracy is not simply a license to indulge individual whims and proclivities. It is also holding oneself accountable to some reasonable degree for the conditions of peace and chaos that impact the lives of those who inhabit one’s beloved extended community.”Aberjhani, (Splendid Literarium: A Treasury of Stories, Aphorisms, Poems, and Essays).

After the hectic usage of the Crime Preventers in the run-up for the General Election in 2016, they are suddenly relevant again. Even after the state are failing with funds and such. The National Resistance Movement, still seems to need several more guns and soldiers out there walking in the streets of Uganda. That is how it seems, but however now it has changed from being part of the Uganda Police Force, into a brigade from the Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF). That means the Generals will control it and order it, not the Police. That is very different animal if this happens.

Reported by 411UG today: ““I now regard you as a reserve army for UPDF. My idea is to have a small army which is equipped but with a big reserve”, Museveni stated in his address at Lugogo Arena. However, before saying so, President Museveni refuted rumours surrounding ‘who owns them’ he said; “Anybody who had an idea that this was a Kayihura project, please, get it out of your head. But Kayihura was an active cadre who executed that aspect and I congratulate him.” (411UG – ‘I now regard you as a reserve army for UPDF — Museveni tells crime preventers’ 28.03.2018).

What President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, is distancing himself from the statements the Uganda Police Force did during campaigns of 2015, when the UPF stated this: “Uganda Police Force has learnt with profound disappointment that a Facebook group called Team JPAM 2016 has referred to ‘Crime Preventers’ as a militia force, as if that was not enough, they have also drawn comparisons of it with the infamous Rwandan genocidaire group called The Interahamwe who were responsible for some of the most heinous crimes against humanity in the history of mankind. Amid this outrageous ill-motivated accusations, we thought it was important that Ugandans understand that the concept of community policing has always been there and contemplated for implementation, as way back as 1990. It is a metamorphose of the ‘Nyumba Kumi’. Those who are old enough will remember that Nyumba Kumi works on the premise that each community must be able to be self-reliant on security matters. In fact though Nyumba Kumi means ‘ten houses’ in Swahili, the concept is not rigid in its implementation. Again those of pertinent age will remember that visitors and or any new person in a given community was required to register and deposit their IDs with the chairman or the police” (Uganda Police Force – ‘CRIME PREVENTERS ARE NOT A MILITIA FORCE’ 22.03.2018).

So if they are reserves to the UPDF, that means Amama Mbabazi was actual going forward, because the accusation is now true. That means the Crime Preventers will become a brigade, another force under the UPDF. They are militia under the army, they are secondary army and brigades when in need. That means they shouldn’t be involved in policing, but national security. That is if the difference between the police and army is respected. This also means, that the Police Force getting less extra officers, since the changes of program should come swiftly, also the change in mandate of the Crime Preventers.

This is also not in line what he himself said in 2016: ““In all modern countries, there is an Army and Police Reserve. Crime Preventers are a Police Reserve. They do not have any political affiliation. Anyone who wants to become a Crime Preventer should join,” he said. Mr. Museveni reassured the country that there will be no violence during elections. “The law guarantees a peaceful election. It says what is wrong and should not be done during elections. If you do what should not be done, we will arrest you. Soldiers are not yet deployed but they will soon be,” he said” (PPU – ‘ President Museveni: Crime preventers are a Police Reserve Force’ 14.02.2016).

So two years ago, they we’re a Police Reserve, now it has changed, the army needs reserves, the army needs to be bolstered for apparent reasons unknown to mankind. The UPDF needs the extra personnel, that the UPF cannot pay for, the UPDF has budgets for extended personnel and firepower. Certainly, there is something underlining the will of the President. That he is willingly using the Crime Preventers as military reserves. That means, they will follow orders from the military and not from the new leadership of UPF. Meaning they are going from one security organization into another, where the mandate and meaning is different.

This means the Police are now having less people associated with it, this is winging the organization and establishing another norm. We can wonder if the brigade and that the National Crime Preventers Forum (NCPF), that was established in 2013, meaning that the mandate and will of this organization too, needs to change if it supposed to make sense. The Community Policing will not make sense, if they are a military brigade, unless he want to show military force and spread fear. That tehe soldiers will be with guns and ammunition in the streets, to show that the NRM has big enough force to continue their rule, therefore, you never know when you meet a UPDF Crime Preventer. The former Community Policing officer who coordinating directly with the Police. Should now be in direct line with the military. That is because their mission changed.

We can wonder what the need for a military reserve, how come? Is there a war brewing the world doesn’t know about? Does Museveni plans to invade the Democratic Republic of Congo, again? Does Museveni plan to intervene with soldiers in South Sudan, again? What is the use of extra and more soldiers in reserve, that was previous community police officers through the Crime Preventers Program.

Because, it doesn’t make sense to conduct fighting internal policing and being military at the same time. They are two vast different approach to both organizations within the community, the army to secure the borders and people from outsider invading, also being a securing element. That stops the neighbors from wanting to cross the borders. While the police who has the allowed space of investigating and combating crime within the territory, they are also securing the safety directly in the territory. Therefore, seeing the Crime Preventers becoming part of the army, means that the mandate change.

This means that Museveni is up to something. I don’t know what, but it smells fishy. I just don’t know what. Peace.

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Did Museveni call his former IGP Kayihura a “bean weevil” today? Loyalty to Mzee is clearly not worth it!

Those criminals can be arrested only that Police had been infiltrated by a “bean weevil” that was now removed, we shall now get them” – Yoweri Kaguta Museveni on the 8th March 2018 in Mityana.

President Museveni is his own kind, just days after sacking Inspector General of Police Edward Kale Kayihura and appointing someone else. He is addressing his own Police Chief as an insect who infested the bean. The bean-bag must be the Police Force, as IGP Kayihura over his 13 years in control of the Police.

To prove what a weevil is, the dictionary of Merriam Webster defines that as: “any of a superfamily (Curculionoidea) of beetles which have the head prolonged into a more or less distinct snout and which include many that are destructive especially as larvae to nuts, fruit, and grain or to living plants; especially: any of a family (Curculionidae) having a well-developed snout curved downward with the jaws at the tip and clubbed usually elbowed antennae” (Merriam Webster – ‘Weevil’ 28.02.2018). So the President are mentioning him in this fashion. To deflect the narrative that Museveni has ordered, put forward the laws Kayihura had to abide too, and also the direct orders from him. That is known, as Kayihura said his loyalty was to Museveni and his wishes. It had to be, because that is the only reason for the longevity of Kayihura as the IGP. Kayihura was able to be the IGP for 13 years. Over that time, he followed orders and made own. Which also became his fall.

However, to blame it all on him is an understatement. Kayihura did a lot wrong and followed his guts in the is political will and his achievements of monitoring politicians and using the police in oppression of the opposition. This has been done with the blessings of the State House. If it wasn’t for the will of Museveni, Kayihura wouldn’t have acted. Some things he did on his own, like the ICT Corruption Scandal within the UPF. The mission of using Crime Preventers, but that was also blessed by the almighty himself. It was okay to use Boda Boda 2010, when it was to intimidate the opposition and intimidate them. Now that it became a problem and their crimes became an issue, the squabble with Gen. Tukumunde, was the final nail in the coffin. Museveni couldn’t have it this way.

Clearly, the little bug, the little insect that he hired again and again. He had 4 terms of 3 years. That is twelve years, before given his 5th last year. So it wasn’t like Museveni didn’t trust him and used his services as a punching bag and as the IGP. In November 2016, Kayihura was awarded by the State as the “Exemplary Uganda’s Civil Servant”. A little over a year later, he is sacked because he isn’t that good, but he was good enough in Mbale in November 2016.

Now, after the bustle between Kayihura and Tumukunde, while the insecurity has been rising, while murders being unsolved and the crime not taken care of by the Police. They squabble between them destroyed the credibility of both of them even more as the Muslim Clerical murders, Entebbe Woman murders and the list goes on. Even the high profile assassination of Andrew Kaweesi hasn’t been solved. There are to many plots and acts who hasn’t been looked into or afraid to do, because it might reveal who is on the top of the food-chain and who ordered the killings.

So with that in mind, calling min a weevil or an insect days after his sacking is beneath any president, but it is in fashion when it comes to Museveni. He has called people similar in the past, but this is what he says about someone who has been loyal to him, like forever. Kayihura had been his cadre, his comrade in crime, the one who did his dirty work and followed orders. Kayihura just worked in the interest of Museveni. Now days after Museveni shows how much he values his work.

If it had been opposition, they would have the right to name him in bad fashion, since he has crashed them, detained them, house-arrested them and tried to destroy their lives. Because they were opposition and against his master Museveni.

The President shows his own personal agenda, it is always washing his hands of his dirt. Always making sure that he himself get left unscratched by the actions and orders he delivered. That is why this demeaning to Kayihura and his work. Kayihura was acting vile and was a monster, he was someone who acted as a IGP in command under Museveni. He would not act like that if the President didn’t order him too. Some he would do on his own, but the rest is orders from the President and his will.

So if IGP is an insect, he was the President own personal insect. So now he used pesticides and got rid of it. That is what the President said today. He took him away with Raid sprayed the crap out of the Police and now gotten rid of the weevil. Now that the insect is gone, the Police will catch the criminals. However, I doubt that, because the system and rules, the orders came all from Museveni.

Kayihura was the man Museveni made, even if he don’t like the results now, it was his making. Museveni made the organization, accepted the short-comings of him and his use of Police Force. Police Force became like it is, because Museveni made it possible. I don’t say that to defend Kayihura, because I don’t want to defend the man. He deserves to be in bracelets himself for breaches of the Constitution and misuse of power. However, that will not happen.

Mr. President when you are saying things like this, your proving that loyalty to you and following your words is worthless, because you will destroy them the moment you can in your own favor. Peace.

Brexit: DEXEU Exit Analysis from January 2018 shows tragic results for the UK if they leave!

The secretive Department for Exiting the European Union (DEXEU) and Cabinet Secretary David Davis has hold a secret since January 2018, as of today the folders to ‘EU Exit Analysis Cross Whitehold Briefing’ was released online. Surely, the Conservatives and DUP must take people’s for fools, thinking these results would fly under radar and not be scrutinized. I will take certain ones from this. Just to prove how much hurt the public could get by leaving the EU. I am glad I am not British, while reading this one, but not many would have looked there if it were not for Member of Parliament, who took page by page and leaked them too.

Depending on what sort of a trade arrangement the United Kingdom gets with their partners, if it’s a EEA deal, Florence Type Arrangement and WTO Agreement with the EU. No matter what, the fall and the costs will be massive. The industries of chemicals, food and drink, clothes, manufacturing, cars and retail will be hit by the time of the exit. Certainly, like chemical industry and their percentages of loss could be between 16% and 2%. The biggest loss would be in the WTO deal, the non-deal with EU. Food and Drinks industry could lose between 10% and 2 %. Also depending on which deal. Both of these shows the massive backlash it has and how the cuts will be. Since the industries will both lose big profits and margins, which they cannot uphold by the status quo arrangements!

Those results are striking and proving how little benefit it is to leave and create a tariff border with the EU. They are really pulling efforts to make things more expensive and harder, just the tariffs alone will hurt the exports and the imports to the UK. Since the cost will be put on the consumer, and the EU trading partners might choose other cheaper produce from elsewhere. Since the tariffs on UK cheese is too high and the Swiss one cost less. The estimated tariffs on agriculture in EEA deal is zero, but the FTA is 26.1% and WTO is 26.1% and that is massive rise of prices. On Beverages, Tobacco and Food, the EEA is Zero, while the FTA is 12.7% and WTO is 12.7%. Both of these are showing the high risking prices and effects it could have on the market.

IF you believed the Tories and the campaigners that it wouldn’t be costly to move away and that the UK would earn on the leaving. You we’re duped, you were fooled and the hatred ate you. It will cost and with time it has been evident, as even the industry and the Financial Business Community is planning to flee. That will cost even more, as more jobs are fleeing to Union Financial Districts, to be sure they can trade services without having a hectic international tariffs and waivers to get it through! That is what will happen when the EU and UK departs from each other.

The new regulatory environment plus the taxations of the services after leaving will be hectic. The added pressure and the lack of movement of staff, can also hinder the will of doing business in the UK. They are really biting the hands that feeds itself. The wisdom hasn’t sunk in yet, but the numbers are bad, it will not be a smooth ride and the cost will all be put on the British and their consumers. It will not be walk in the park; it will be a steep mountain of hurt. Peace.

President Museveni sacks Minister Tumukunde and IGP Kayihura: However, will it make a difference?

Today, two loyalists of the President has gotten fired, this was sudden and was not anticipated. Today on the 4th March 2018, the Inspector General of the Police Edward Kale Kayihura and the Director General of Internal Security Organization (ISO) General Henry Tumukunde. Both have been dropped suddenly after the recent leaks of lacking policing and rising crime in Uganda. There been reported of only 5% rate of murders being solved in the recent year.

A statement signed by the President and dated 4th March, 2018, reads as follows: In the Exercise of the powers vested in the President by Articles 113 (1) and 213 (2) of the Constitution of the Republic of Uganda, I hereby appoint General Elly Tumwiine as Minister for Security, Mr. Okoth Ochola as the Inspector-General of Police and Brigadier Sabiiti Muzeei as the Deputy Inspector General of Police”.

So the President has actually acted on the worse state of the Police and the public perception, as the police has been more focused on opposition politicians, than actually fighting crime. I don’t think the Police Force will stop doing that and also ban Besigye from dinners and public gatherings. However, this is proof that the President acts. Even if he is late to the party, since he should known that the Police have had gangs working for them and intimidated them. It isn’t like the President did this while the Muslim Cleric died or the woman at Entebbe died last year. Not that the Police leadership changed when the AIGP Andrew Kaweesi was killed. Therefore, the Boda Boda 2010 and the Crime Preventers issues must have really hurt some pride. Since, the change happens now. As the ISO is investigating Police Force and the Police Force was starting to investigate agents who did kidnap civilians and also did dirty work. Clearly, the President maybe wanted to stop that sort of acts. Since both actions make it look stupid and also looks like to different criminal groups, which is sanctioned from the state.

So now the NRM goes back to the NRA days, as they are hiring Tumwiine, as the Daily Monitor reports: “The new security minister Gen Elly Tumwine served as Commander of the National Resistance Army from 1984 to 1987. Gen Tumwine who also sits on the UPDF High Command fired the first shot in the National Resistance war. He replaces Gen Henry Tumukunde” (Daily Monitor, 04.03.2018).

So Tumukunde loses ISO and Ministry of Security, the battle between Kayihura made them both lose. Even as Kayihura wasn’t long ago promised a new tenure and term. Therefore, his contract got taken back and now he lost his job on a Sunday. It was on 2nd May 2017 that Kayihura for a new three year term. Now the Deputy IGP John Martins Okoth Ochola takes over becomes the IGP. J.M. Okoth Ochola is what you call a traditional Police Officer, if he will implement that, instead of the military attitude of Kayihura is to be seen. As he has worked for years under Kayihura.

All of this might change the faces of the Police Force and the Ministry of Security, however, it is the same President and the same party behind it. If the Parliament, the President and the Security Organization wants change, the procedures and institutional polices has to change. The accountability and the organization has to change. The Police Force isn’t make the nation safe, neither was ISO or the UPDF. The Special Forces Command or any other organization created to secure the public. That is why people is murdered and there are no signs of proper investigations, even criminals who just get away with their crimes.

This change might happen because of the United States new Travel Advisory on the 10th January 2018 said: “Exercise increased caution in Uganda due to crime. Violent crime, such as armed robbery, home invasion, and sexual assault, is common, especially in larger cities including Kampala and Entebbe. Local police lack the resources to respond effectively to serious crime” (Travel.State.Gov, 10.01.2018).

So they are have started to worry about the state of the police in Uganda. When they are warning their tourists. It says a lot about how they know about the current state of policing in Uganda. This must have gotten into the ears of Museveni and that is why he fires both of them. As the squabble between Kayihura and Tumukunde, has been fought in public. As the ISO has gone after proxy organizations of the Police Force. They have taken people connected with Kayihura and now he didn’t just lose, but Tumukunde got sacked too. When you play high, the rewards might be high, but fall might be worse.

People despise Kayihura for his actions and his defense of the NRM, the political driven police force, who has bankrupt the Force and also extended the mandate because of the Public Order Management Act of 2010. The POMA clearly made the Police Force focused on policing and monitoring opposition, more than collecting evidence and actually solving crimes. The Police Work has been left behind, they have used fear and used gangs to stop people. It has been strange, but it was sanctioned and accepted until now.

President Museveni suddenly acted swiftly, as he wanted to save face, even if the barren organization, the bankrupt system is still there. The scandals and the lack of morals are there. The ISO and UPF are still two security organizations without trust in the public, because they are more into politics, than fighting crimes. They are no bipartisan, but a visible hand of the NRM.

The insecurity and the lack of policing is something that has occurred over time. It wasn’t created in a vacuum of Kayihura or Tumukunde. This was done by President and with his orders. Kayihura has said his been a loyal man who just follows orders. He will continue to say that to clean his hands of dirt, as he has done his vicious and malicious acts against the citizens. Kayihura knows this and he knows he has made political prisoners and done so as ordered from the State House. That is where the big problem is, it is the State House. The organizations, the institutions and the insecurity has been made from there.

It is the lack of transparency, oversight and accountability of the Security Organizations, it is the lack of resources and the maladministration. It is the whole structure and the orders from the President, who promise and pledge, but doesn’t invest. Museveni has created this, but it is easier to sack someone, than actually destroy something and rebuild. Right now the Police Force isn’t professional, neither is ISO. The lack of protocol, procedure and training, is the reason for this mess. The lack of actual officers who do their duty and has no reason to even do so.

We should also worry about Gen. Tumwine, the former NRA and rebel whose been loyal to Museveni, don’t expect ISO and Ministry of Security to be nice and smooth. The malicious acts of the Ministry will continue, as the vicious crackdown of 2001 was in the hands of the general. Who while in charge made sure dissidents entered Kigo Prison, which was leaked in 2005 and 2006. Therefore, the world knows that he tortured lawyer, human rights activists and also opposition activists there. Therefore, Tumwine, might do similar things now that he has power in service of Museveni. So he goes from the UPDF General Court Martial, where he has stated in the powers. That previous trials and charges on Besigye was ordered and not made on legal basis. Therefore, he is brave enough to speak up against Museveni. But if he will do more than speaking is likely, since Museveni has made him general and made him Minister again.

We just have to see how this goes. Surprised today, yes and not so worried about the battle between Okoth Ochola and Tumwine. But if they will rock-the-boat, I doubt it and if they will reform their institutions and their organizations. I doubt that too. They will be figureheads who are loyal to Museveni and await orders from the State House. We will just see if their leadership roles, can stop the insecurity and the problematic state the Police has no in society.

The top chef, the one who has created this dish is in the State House. It is the President who is in-charge and let all of this happen. It is Museveni who didn’t act and made it possible for the Police to investigate and make sure the Police could solve the crimes done, the murders and all other activity. Clearly, that hasn’t been possible.

Time will tell if that will happen now! Peace.

EU’s Draft Withdrawal Agreement solves the Irish problem with borders and trade like today!

The European Union or parts of it the European Commission has made their draft agreement on the withdrawal of United Kingdom as a Member State within the Union. This draft document will say many things, but I will focus on the ones that I see fitting and important. Therefore, this will not be the whole picture, but outtakes. That is see as significant for Europeans and the British as well. Since this will affect the realities of the citizens on the continent, as well as the boundaries it creates.

This document is significant, because it says what the EU expects of it all and puts everything into play. It set standards of what the European Commission and their technocrats wants to ensure. This is so the liabilities and the stakeholders of the Union, will know every single step and manners they perceive as important, which also should matter to the United Kingdom. Because they are the ones that is initially leaving, but it is just the matter of how. With time haven’t become clearer from their part, but more foggy as the shadow-games of the Tories Government isn’t supplying the world with clear communication of what they want or see as their future on the outside.

What is the most important piece of it is the ways the EU are cooperating with the will of the Republic of Ireland and the relationship it needs with Northern Ireland and the UK. Clearly stated in the draft is the provisions, that is clear, that the EU is not set for a hard-Brexit in this concern, as the Irish will have a special conditions and provisions, ensuring that the state of affairs stays as today. They are ensuring that the EU Draft is not in violation of the Good Friday Agreement, which shows the maturity of the EU in this sense. Now people should just worry if the UK government want to alter or change it for their own personal gain or not. Since, this is leaving the Irish problem settled and made sure they get what is needed comparing to old agreements between all parties involved.

“NOTING that Union law has provided a supporting framework to the provisions on Rights, Safeguards and Equality of Opportunity of the 1998 Agreement; UNDERLINING that part or all of this Protocol may cease to apply should a future agreement between the Union and the United Kingdom be agreed which addresses the unique circumstances on the island of Ireland, including by avoiding a hard border and protecting the 1998 Agreement in all its dimensions” (EU, P: 99, 2018).

“The United Kingdom and Ireland may continue to make arrangements between themselves relating to the movement of persons between their territories (the “Common Travel Area”), while fully respecting the rights of natural persons conferred by Union law” (…) “A common regulatory area comprising the Union and the United Kingdom in respect of Northern Ireland is hereby established. The common regulatory area shall constitute an area without internal borders in which the free movement of goods is ensured and North-South cooperation protected in accordance with this Chapter” (EU, P: 100, 2018).

This part of the agreement will hurt the Brexiteers, who want a full breakout of the EU, this will give leeway to a lot of speculations, as the ERG inside the Tories will not accept this sort of arrangement. Even if this is positive news for the EU friendly parts of the Kingdom. However, this should be seen as a victory for Dublin, as well as Belfast. Even if the DUP might not be in favour and they are vital to London these days.

This leaves and follows the agreement made not too long ago and pursuits the same arrangements as today, concerning the needs of Dublin and Belfast. We will see if this will backfire for Theresa May and her unknown project, as the inner-party of Tories is conflicted with itself and the costs of the Brexit. Clearly, the state is unsure and not bringing certainties, the EU on the other hand is showing the steps and has no issues flaunting it. While the Tories has tried to keep this inside the party and not letting anyone now. Therefore, trying to damage control, instead of deciding how to negotiate.

This is showing that the EU want to respect the Good Friday Agreement, the Irish problem of the Brexit and handling it with maturity, however, will do Tories answer with the same or are they stuck with DUP and ERG who wants to make the Brexit even harder. With strong borders and no CTA and specialized Customs Union for the Irish. Time will tell, but this was a breath of fresh air. Peace.

Reference:

European Commission Draft Withdrawal Agreement on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the European Union and the European Atomic Energy Community (28.02.2018)

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