Brexit delayed again: Groundhog Day number 3

Phil Connors: “It’s the same thing every day, Clean up your room, stand up straight, pick up your feet, take it like a man, be nice to your sister, don’t mix beer and wine ever, Oh yeah, don’t drive on the railroad tracks” (Groundhog Day, 1993).

Well, we are at it again. The United Kingdom revoked their membership on the 29th March 2017 and within a two year period plan to leave the European Union. However, the Brexit day of 29th March didn’t happen.

On March 20th 2019, the UK government asked for an extension. Since the Tories and Parliament couldn’t agree on the terms of the exit. Neither, the statutes configuring the border question in Northern Ireland. That’s why the EU accepted another extension until 30th June 2019.

Later in April, the EU and EU Council accepted that the extension could last until 31st October 2019. Which was the day set to start the transition period of leaving. But by the knowledge today. The change of Prime Minister and new government. They have been able to bottle another amended withdrawal agreement and lost more in Parliament than ever before.

Therefore, on the 28th October, the EU and the EU Council have accepted another extension to give the Tories and UK time to reconfigure things. They have now the date of 31st January 2020.

That means the UK have bottled and misused the time since 29th March 2017 and is close to three years in limbo. Where three Prime Ministers, David Cameron, Theresa May and Boris Johnson have all failed the task. They have all been shambolic, in ways unbelievable to think off before this. They have lost majority parliament, they have lost one general election and pushing the referendum still. Without considering another referendum.

It is okay to elect new parliament, new MPs and a new cabinet, but not fine and dandy to check if people really want to leave. Now that the public actually knows a bit of the cost, knows the trade-offs and the loss of relevance across the British Channel. The Irish is more powerful, than the Brits. That must hurt the pride of London and silence Merry Poppins.

This is all magical, the universe doesn’t seem in sync if it is not a few headlines on Brexit. We need some more time to crunch the inevitable end of it. The Tories seems boggled and lost. If and buts will be more off and certainly, Boris might be laying in a ditch, but prefer that’s his not dead. We don’t need more hurt than the process is already is.

The government, the parliament and the EU haven’t been capable to proceed to find the remedy. The cause of the leaving became much harder, than the Brexiteers ever thought. The remainers are seeing the pain, but don’t know how to end the suffering. The EU is just looking at the UK and how torn it is.

The hardliners, the ones whose govern lost another specific date. The Brexit Day of 31st October left the building, just like the 29th March 2019 did too. The 30th June went missing too and now the new final date 31st January 2020. It is a farce, a mockery and failure from the get-go.

There is no winners here, only loosers and the biggest loser is the ones in power, who cannot succeed. The loss is the citizens and the ones who has to pay for all of this. Because, the entitlement and extravagant show is a flair without any substance. The EU and UK could have known this would cost. The Tories should known before leaving, that it would loose a lot and also pay for leaving. But they didn’t want the truth, but instead swim in lies.

Now, we are back at another groundhog day. Theresa May went through this and now Boris Johnson does too. They are showing the same buyer’s remorse, but no one want to buy their knock-off product, which they are selling. Both their Withdrawal Agreements and Withdrawal Act’s sucks. Nobody wins, and everyone lose. Who wants to bet on that? No one wants too.

It is just like the Tories, Whitehall and Downing Street No. 10 doesn’t know. Peace.

Province of the Episcopal Church of South Sudan: Office of the Archbishop and Primate – The Implementation of the Peace Agreement (26.10.2019)

South Sudan: SPLM/A-(IO) Press Release – Re: On the Position of the SPLM/A-(IO) Regarding Extension of the Pre-Interim Period (24.10.2019)

Brexit: Written evidence Memorandum from the Home Office (PFB0018) – (24.10.2019)

Brexit: Lib-Dem leader Jo Swinson MP letter to Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn (24.10.2019)

South Sudan: Ministry of Finance & Planning (MoFP) – Subject: Allocation of 18 cruds Oil Cargoes (21.10.2019)

Troika Statement on the Formation of South Sudan’s Revitalized Transitional Government of National Unity (22.10.2019)

The following is the text of a Troika Statement on the Formation of South Sudan’s Revitalized Transitional Government of National Unity.

JOHANNESBURG, South Africa, October 22, 2019 – South Sudan faces a critical moment in the journey toward a peaceful and prosperous future. There are now less than four weeks for political leaders to form a transitional government as they committed to in the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan. The United States, the United Kingdom, and Norway (the Troika) have consistently welcomed assurances by the parties to implement the agreement and meet its deadlines, and hoped that recent meetings between South Sudan’s leadership show a renewed spirit of cooperation. We commend the actions of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) to broker the agreement and maintain momentum and take hope from the continued reduction in overall violence in South Sudan.

For too long, conflict has been waged at the expense of South Sudan’s most vulnerable and continues to exacerbate humanitarian needs. We encourage the parties, especially the current government, to take concrete steps to build trust through enhanced cooperation. With the November 12 deadline looming, extended from May, much more needs to be done urgently to ensure the success of the transitional government. Progress would help maintain the confidence of all the parties and the international community, demonstrate that the parties have the political will to work together during the transitional period, and provide the opportunity for the international community to engage productively with an inclusive, new government.

We welcome the discussions of IGAD countries in Addis Ababa last week; the region and the international community’s investment and engagement in a peaceful South Sudan remains important. The Troika will continue to stand with and support the people of South Sudan, who want and deserve peace and a government that protects its people. We urge the South Sudanese parties to meet the November 12 deadline to form a transitional government that will enable the conditions for a constructive relationship during the next phase of South Sudan’s peace process. We encourage South Sudanese leaders to build on momentum generated by the ongoing UNSC visit to South Sudan to accelerate such progress.

South Sudan: Does Mr. Amsterdam knows who he gotten retained by?

The South Sudanese rebels of Thomas Cirillo Swaka of National Salvation Front (NAS), Gen. Paul Malong of South Sudan United Front/Army (SSUF/A) and Gen. Pagan Amum of Real-Sudanese People Liberation Movement (R-SPLM) through a press release made by Amsterdam & Partners LLP revealed that they had retained the company.

I don’t know if the lawyers and representatives knows who they represent, as the statement is directly putting all blame for all the issues in South Sudan on President Salva Kiir. Surely, parts of the problems is his fault, but not all of them. Certainly, there are more actors and more heads involved, which these gentlemen knows. Because, they know they have history with the government and what it has done over the years.

Like for instance Gen. Paul Malong, who is known for: “Malong served as Chief of General Staff of the SPLA from April 23, 2014, to May 2017. In his former position as the Chief of General Staff, he expanded or extended the conflict in South Sudan through breaches of the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement and breaches of the 2015 Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (ARCSS). As of early August 2016, Malong reportedly directed efforts to kill South Sudanese opposition leader Riek Machar. Malong, knowingly countermanding President Salva Kiir’s orders, ordered the 10 July 2016 tank, helicopter gunship, and infantry assaults on Machar’s residence and the Sudan Peoples’ Liberation Movement in Opposition (SPLM-IO)’s “Jebel” base. Malong personally oversaw efforts from SPLA headquarters to intercept Machar. As of early August 2016, Malong wanted the SPLA to attack Machar’s suspected position immediately and informed SPLA commanders that Machar was not to be taken alive. In addition, in early 2016 information indicates that Malong ordered SPLA units to prevent the transport of humanitarian supplies across the Nile River, where tens of thousands of civilians were facing hunger, claiming that food aid would be diverted from civilians to militia groups. As a result of Malong’s orders, food supplies were blocked from crossing the Nile for at least two weeks” (United Nations Security Council – Paul Malong).

Then you have Thomas Cirillo, who has done this: “To bolster positions in areas under their influence, NAS and affiliated armed groups/elements resorted to violence to compel civilian cooperation and to prevent communities from supporting the local administration. To this end, they engaged in targeted killings, including through beheading, as a deliberate strategy to terrorize local populations. SPLA-IO (RM) elements employed similar tactics to dissuade civilians from supporting NAS and affiliated armed groups/elements” (…) “In addition to the 50 civilians killed by organized armed opposition groups during clashes between September and December 2018, HRD documented 11 victims of targeted killings. In these cases, the victims were male and were killed after being captured at checkpoints, while traveling to farms or markets, or as they were returning to their villages. According to eyewitnesses and family members of the victims, most were killed while travelling without the alleged “authorization” delivered by these armed groups and were suspected of providing information or other support to the Government” (UNMISS – ‘CONFLICT-RELATED VIOLATIONS AND ABUSES IN CENTRAL EQUATORIA – September 2018—April 2019 (3 July 2019)).

Then there is the final man, Gen. Pagan Amum: “(SBU) Manoa claimed that the NCP wants Pagan Amum to be Minister of Cabinet Affairs in order to weaken the SPLM. He pointed out that although the NCP considers Amum to be pro-unity, originally Pagan Amum began his political activity as a member of “Anyanya-2,” a southern separatist movement in Khartoum” (Cablegate: Splm Ministers Sworn in, Pagan Amum Is Minister of Cabinet, 27.12.2007). “Cde Pagan, you would wish me dead as I am the only person who could expose you as a former terrorist (Hostage taker for ransom) and a communist who is hypocritically in bed with USA establishment. Cde Pagan, you also know that I am aware that Sudan Communist Party had recalled back all their card holding members including you. Of course no body knows other than me that you have been both running SPLM and Sudan Communist Party offices in Havanna – Cuba all the years you have been there. Beside the above, the most serious fundamental difference between me and you is that you believe in New Sudan and I am a simple Southern Sudanese Nationalist who fought hard and sacrificed my life for people of Southern Sudan to exercise the Right of Self Determination. In the last INC meeting, I proposed frankly to the INC in your presence the need to abolish the position of a Secretary General in the SPLM because I clearly detected Stalinism rapidly sprouting in you and must be nipped in the bud before it is too late. Cde Pagan, you positively identified the leadership inheritance syndrome in the Chairman and took advantage of it” (Aleu Ayieny Ale – You Remind Me Comrade Pagan, 06.07.2015).

Surely, Robert Amsterdam, the attorney retained should know this. That even as they are in opposition. They are not the cleanest crew. These are not the angels on the side-lines, which he can white-wash and prepare to walk in the halls of fame. This are warlords, these are people with a reputation and history, which cannot be forgotten. No matter how bad the government is too. Because, they have to answer for their own misgivings and trouble created, in civil war, during cease-fire and so-on.

Even if Amsterdam says this: “The people of South Sudan have been subjected to a series of systemic human rights violations by the current administration and its security services for years; something which the new nation may not recover from for a whole generation or more,” said Robert Amsterdam (…)“According to Mr. Amsterdam, “to date, no justice has been delivered to the many victims of this long-running conflict, which we argue was instigated by Mr. Salva Kiir himself in December 2013.” (Amsterdam, 21.10.2019). Which is true in a way, he should know whom he represents, and what they have done in power. As well as in opposition and they continue to do so. These people are not peace speaking monks, but generals, soldiers and warriors in a long-term battle. Therefore, he should know that the stories might be twisted to fit their prerogative. Peace.

South Sudan: Troika Statement, October 2019 (21.10.2019)

The text of the following statement was issued jointly by the governments of the United States, Norway, and the United Kingdom:

South Sudan faces a critical moment in the journey toward a peaceful and prosperous future. There are now less than four weeks for political leaders to form a transitional government as they committed to in the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan. The United States, the United Kingdom, and Norway (the Troika) have consistently welcomed assurances by the parties to implement the agreement and meet its deadlines, and hoped that recent meetings between South Sudan’s leadership show a renewed spirit of cooperation. We commend the actions of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) to broker the agreement and maintain momentum and take hope from the continued reduction in overall violence in South Sudan.

For too long, conflict has been waged at the expense of South Sudan’s most vulnerable and continues to exacerbate humanitarian needs. We encourage the parties, especially the current government, to take concrete steps to build trust through enhanced cooperation. With the November 12 deadline looming, extended from May, much more needs to be done urgently to ensure the success of the transitional government. Progress would help maintain the confidence of all the parties and the international community, demonstrate that the parties have the political will to work together during the transitional period, and provide the opportunity for the international community to engage productively with an inclusive, new government.

We welcome the discussions of IGAD countries in Addis Ababa last week; the region and the international community’s investment and engagement in a peaceful South Sudan remains important. The Troika will continue to stand with and support the people of South Sudan, who want and deserve peace and a government that that protects its people. We urge the South Sudanese parties to meet the November 12 deadline to form a transitional government that will enable the conditions for a constructive relationship during the next phase of South Sudan’s peace process. The UNSC visit to South Sudan offers an opportunity for the international community to discuss with South Sudanese leaders how to accelerate such progress.

Further information Follow the Foreign Office on Twitter @foreignoffice and Facebook

Follow the Foreign Office on Instagram, YouTube and LinkedIn

Media enquiries For journalists

Email newsdesk@fco.gov.uk

Newsdesk 020 7008 3100

South Sudan: R-TGoNU in waiting

Well, today’s reports from Juba says itself. The deadline for the R-ARCSS of 12th November 2019 will not be met. Even if the foreign stakeholders and United Nations pressure the parties to settle it by that time. This might be a push to hard, as the positioning of the South Sudan Opposition Movement (SSOM), SPLM-IO and others might not be met. The cost will be another marriage, which will end in tanks on the streets of Juba like in 2016. And we don’t want to see that.

Therefore, even as the deadline looms. Maybe give the parties time to settle things. Even if it costs. Because, SPLM, SPLM-IO, Real-SPLM, SPLM-FD and SSOM needs to be part of the new transitional government on terms accepted by all. This means, that Kiir and Machar doesn’t only need to keep their soldiers at bay, but also ensure that the others doesn’t violate the requirements made. That is not an easy task. That’s why the IGAD, the UNMISS, CSTAMVM, RJMEC and so-on needs to continue to oversee and ensure the stakeholders do their thing. Since, they are all there already and we don’t want to see it go out of hand. Let them stop the cease-fire and let the full force of contained soldiers on the loose. We don’t want that, because that might happen if we force the R-TGoNU to fast.

Here’s today’s statements, which is interesting, but telling.

Government Press Release:

President Salva Kiir Mayardit and the opposition leader Dr. Riek Machar were briefed by the leadership of the Security Council, the Joint Defense Board at the State House on Sunday. The meeting focused on addressing the outstanding critical issues related to security arrangements and number of states hindering the implementation of the peace deal. The Minister of Information and Telecommunication, Michael Makuei Lueth who is the official government spokesperson said, President Kiir and Dr. Riek were presented with the security report concerning the implementation of the security arrangements. Michael Makuei said, the two parties will meet again to come out with the final decision on whether the transitional government of national unity will be formed or otherwise” (South Sudan Presidential Press Unit, 20.10.2019)

SPLM-IO Press Release:

On the Meeting of President Salva Kiir and Dr. Riek Machar with the R-ARCSS Security Mechanisms. H. E. Salva Kiir Mayardit, President of the Republic of South Sudan and H.E. Dr. Riek Machar Teny-Dhurgon, Chairman and Commander in Chief of the People’s Movement SPLM/SPLA (IO), held a fruitful meeting with the R-ARCSS Security Mechanisms today at the State House (J1), as agreed upon by the two principals during the face-to-face consultative meeting held yesterday October 19, 2019. The Two principals received comprehensive updates from all Security Mechanisms on the status of the security arrangements, the achievements, the ongoing activities, the timeline and the challenges. The Mechanisms was instructed to proceed conducting their activities as per the Revitalized Agreement. Cde. Puok Both Baluang, SPLM (IO) Director for Information and Public Relations” (SPLM-IO, 20.10.2019).

Let us all remember that its just a little minute ago since the parties agreed upon the 27th June 2018 and sign the Khartoum Declaration. Later last year they agreed upon R-ARCSS on the 12th September 2018. So, November 2019 would only be one year and month after the signing of the comprehensive agreement and ceasefire arrangement. Therefore, to consider the implications and the implementation of it in that short span was well, in hindsight that was a short time-frame to finish such an extensive agreement.

That should also the foreign stakeholders considers, as the costs of giving-up or even force it upon the parties. Might cost more, than actually just give way to them. So, that they can find the stipulations and the statutes to reconfigure again. Since, the try-out in 2016 didn’t go well. This time around, the parties might want to do it more. Because, they see the goodwill it gives both in Khartoum and in Addis Ababa.

Nevertheless, the situation and stalemate cannot last forever. This is one more hitch along the road. But that shouldn’t mean the process is over yet. Just that its one more hurdle and a little more to give before it hopefully returns a R-TGoNU and such. Peace.