There been diplomatic spats between Nairobi and Mogadishu before, as the ones in power have either favoured the relations or felt used. The elites in both Republic’s have usually earned coins on the relations. As the cross country trade have been swell and border districts have moved goods. Therefore, the recent escalation is worrying.
Last month it was already getting ugly, when the Kenyan Ambassador went back to Nairobi. After the Somalian government claimed the Kenyan government was interfering in their elections. President Faramaajo have been playing into this narrative and used it ahead of the up-coming elections. Since he gotten friendly with Addis Ababa. He needs a new enemy and currently that Nairobi.
They have already International Court battle over the ownership over certain sea and possible “territory” to drill oil outside their borders. That is a case that is pending and still not settled in the courts. It has been a prolonged dispute. This has however not been the issue for the current spat.
Which is based on the election in Somalia. As the President trying to show his power and his strength ahead of that. That Somalia is cutting its ties. Is now happening because the Kenyan counterparts wanted to show their force as well. They went and had a two day talks with the President of Somaliland Muse Bihi in Nairobi. Also opened up an Consulate for Somaliland in Nairobi and a Kenyan one in Haregeisa. This is in stark contrast to the views of Mogadishu. As the semi-autonomous state and declared independence on the 18th May 1991. Which haven’t been recognized by all states and multi-national organizations. As the Federal Government in Somalia (FGS) will feel these actions made is a betrayal of their sovereign interests. However, that can also be disputed and if they even have a say in Somaliland at all…
This is why this dispute between Mogadishu and Nairobi is happening. Nairobi answered to the attacks and the actions made by Mogadishu. That is why the Kenyan went and made diplomatic efforts with Hargeisa. Just to prove a point. While the Somali elite in Mogadishu and in Nairobi knows it needs Kenyan support. Their army is within their borders. The Kenyan elite is shielding and having a Somali elite in Nairobi. That is why even some Presidential Candidates are campaigning there to get the votes from important figures there. Therefore, this is a futile enterprise.
It is not like the Kenyan will back down now. The FGS in Mogadishu have even ordered for their diplomats to return home within a few days. This means they are clearly shutting down all ordinary means of communication. A neighbour nation who has worked with and is participating in the battle against Al-Shabaab and also harbour the biggest amount of Somali refugees in the Dadaab refugee camp. Therefore, the Kenyan government can make life much worse for Farmaajo, than what he can do to the ones in Nairobi.
This can only be seen as a stunt ahead of the elections. United Nations Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) should react to all of this and also IGAD. The AMISOM mission can also loose out on this. As the Kenyan are mandated and are participating in that. So, if this further escalates. The Mogadishu based politicians are playing with fire. While amping up their “sovereign” interests, which is only losing out and weakening themselves. Not like Mogadishu have some friends to call and get things fixed. Even the US is moving their soldiers from Somalia in 2021. They don’t need more weakness in their battle against the Al-Shabaab.
Farmaajo is trying to live up to the hype and show some resilience. In a manner to buy to populist believes ahead of the polls. He needs an enemy and especially an outside one. That is why Kenya is a fitting one. What he maybe didn’t think was that they would invite and entertain Bihi in Nairobi. That must have hurt his pride and therefore, ended in the late night ceasing of ties. This is the reality of it all.
Somaliland is the pawn here. The semi-autonomous state and non-recognized state, which is trying to get vouched for. Right now the importance of Kenya is huge. Especially, that Raila Odinga is speaking of recognition of it. That would spark fury in Mogadishu. This is why the separatists are vocal about it and celebrating the recent events. While Farmaajo should feel shooked. He played high, but didn’t stack his card correctly.
Right now it’s all in the hands of Farmaajo. The “Cheese” have to act now. This will have repercussions and we can wonder how he will play this one out. His the one that gone an election coming up and he got all to loose here. Somaliland and Bihi got what he wanted. Kenya have shown their moves and can easily manoeuvrer from here. It is the leadership of Mogadishu that is loosing out. Peace.
The Prime Minister since March 2017 was impeached today in the Lower House of Parliament in Mogadishu, PM Hassan Ali Khaire or Kheire. The Norwegian-Somali former oil executive and humanitarian in Norwegian Refugee Council.
He has no fallen from grace, just like his allies got rid of speaker Mohamed Sheikh Osman Jawari in 2018. Who knows if the PM was behind the failed impeachment of the President Farmaajo in 2019. Now in 2020 he has himself gotten impeached by the same house, where he celebrated victory two years ago.
Khaire has a mixed review and that is for all the right reasons. It is for the seemingly easy access to licensing oil blocks to former comrades and companies. Also, his friendly relations with other allies. The possible use of networks and working as a satellite.
In 2019, there was reports that the PM had bought a Ahlu-Suna Wa Jamaa (ASWJ) militia of 4000 based in Galmuudug. Also, that he was using his proceeds to ensure loyalty of commanders with the Somali National Army (SNA) and NISA. Who knows if this all true, but if it is. Then, he has more power to himself, even after the fall from grace.
We cannot know at this stages. There been battles between the President and the PM on which model that was supposed to be used in the up-coming election. Also, if the PM wanted the Parliamentary model and not the one-to-one, which the President preferred. There been meetings done with states, which the President haven’t approved off and some said the PM crossed swords by doing this. Therefore, he had to be impeached and the Lower House would comply with that wish. As it has been a place of automatic approval of the will of the President since the impeachment of Jawari.
Clearly, Khaire has made his own bed. He has organized a lot of this and it backfired. He was trying to fix an easy access to the thrown post-Farmaajo. Hoping his allies and the ones behind him wouldn’t budge. However, that hit left-field and he lost today.
Some is saying his the best PM the Federal Republic ever had. With time and when his full record is exposed. We might know more. There will be allegations and alleged actions made. Also, if he was pocketed through Qatari backers or not. Who knows if the most vital part was to license the oil for Soma Oil and other partners.
Farmaajo may have won today, but he has to appoint someone who will get the same acceptance and ability to lead ahead of the elections. It will only be rocky from here. Khaire will still be in the wind. He will be around and mock every move. The real opposition ahead.
There is too much money at stake. To many business deals and obligations in the hands of the former PM. To just back-down and give way. Yes, he doesn’t have the title. The Lower House went against him. His allies turned on him as well. The PM must have thought he had enough support to win by Parliamentary Elections alone. However, that wasn’t true, they are all there to do the bidding of the President.
If the President appoint the wrong PM now. That will not only hurt his chances in 2021, but also deteriorate the political stability ahead of elections. As the Lower House might impeach him to again and this time succeed. As they accepted the President will to get rid of Khaire, but not having a good successor.
I don’t know, but this here is shady. The Famaajo and Khaire team-up is no history. Three years of work together down the drain. The President might look like a winner today, but down the line. He might regret this. His former campaigner and ally will turn against him now.
The PM who has fallen. Have now the opportunity to run all on his own accord. He can push his way as he wants and doesn’t have to consider the President at all. Some might say his fallen, but will only be proven by the next up-coming election and what he does then.
Because, the final is not here today. Yes, others has gone silent after they lost their title. However, I doubt Khaire is that type. Just await, there is a storm brewing. Who knows who will be hit by this in the future. The President or the MPs as well. If the move of President to impeach the PM wouldn’t create a ripple effect.
Khaire lost today, Famaajo might loose tomorrow and who knows when the MPs of the Lower House will loose too. Time will tell, but God knows what this might do to the Republic ahead of its elections. Peace.
NEW YORK, United States of America, July 19, 2020 – One hundred thousand households in Somaliland in northwest Somalia have better access to water, protecting them not just from the ravages of climate change but also against the spread of COVID-19, thanks to a project supported by the UN Development Programme.
Some 70 per cent of Somalis live from agriculture and pastoralism but changing weather patterns have meant many cannot access the water to sustain these traditional activities.
Many younger people have left for cities and towns to live in slum settlements where access to facilities is limited, but now a number of dams, dykes and storage tanks built in Somaliland by UNDP and its partners are encouraging people to carry on with their traditional livelihoods by providing stability in the form of a reliable and consistent supply of water.
And as the virus which causes COVID-19 continues to spread across Africa, the new water sources are also key to slowing the spread of the disease by making it easier for people to wash hands and clean household items.