Ethiopia: Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) – OLF Denounces the Assassination Attempt Against the Senior OLF Member and Former Leadership, Dr. Degafa Abdisa, in Norway (18.11.2023)

Opinion: Abiy is trying to find any viable excuse to “take” coastal territories…

I think they were absent when we built a Navy or did not have YouTubes; when we built a Navy, it’s clear that there is no other agenda, we meant we need a sea; the agenda is clear” – Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali (14.11.2023).

For ages now and with the recent flair in the last few months, the Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali has showed what is his ambition. Not that it has been done cleverly or with finesse. No, it is so blatant and we can just expect another war. It isn’t like this man has created a prolonged peace or sustainable one anywhere. The only thing that haunts him is his naked ambition and his drive to consolidate power.

That’s why the recent lectures or sessions in the House of Federation have revealed a “will” and a “purpose” to get port(s) and coastal territories, especially the ones around the Red Sea. When that being said, it is challenging Eritrea and their rights to Massawa and Assab by doing so. It is the only thing we can take from this and he can try to spin the narrative, but the truth is already out of the bag.

He can say these words and act like his in it for a “confederation” of the Horn of Africa, but he cannot contain or be able to run the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (FDRE). So, why would anyone bother or accept to be swallowed or be a minority state in a conferation, which will give more power to the centre and the biggest party. That is Ethiopia and they will not budge. This isn’t about mistrust or lack of good faith, but by proven history between the neighbours.

Just read these words…

We will not invade any other country, all we are saying is that let’s negotiate before a famine comes to engulf our large population. In such a time, the existing laws work and we will not abide by them. If we cannot get food to our people because we don’t have ports, we will become vulnerable to hunger and famine, no one will stop us, we will be forced to eat whatever we can find by any means, it is human nature. We should find a solution, the world’s governments have to help 120 million before they get to that desperation, this can be corrected” (…) “It is our desire that East African countries do away with the artificial borders, have a joint diplomacy & army while even still maintaining individual flags. Somalia, Djibouti, Ethiopia & Eritrea’s army can be stationed on the Red Sea & Indian Ocean while the police keep the interior. We must grow together to prosper, it can be done that is all we are asking” (Abiy, 14.11.2023).

He must think we cannot see if for what it is. This is trying to find a solution and a reason to invade. I am hearing the war-drums and the bullets being transported to the borders of Ethiopia. If you thought the wars regarding Badme was horrific. Well, this one will be much worse and will be because one man wanted to be remembered for building a “Grand Ethiopia”. Abiy wants an empire and he cannot have that without the sea. He needs the air, land and sea. That’s what he needs… just like some searching for earth, wind and fire.

Prime Minister Abiy wants to use the starving, the internally displaced and all the ones suffering from internal conflicts as a shield for an invasion. That’s what he is doing and he has weaponized starvation before, heck he has proclaimed “war” on “wheat aid” in the past. It is just the sort of man he is and that is the mechanism that defeats “famine” if he fears it that much. The ones coming to Ethiopia’s aide is already using the ports and know the logistics to get to the ones in need. Therefore, the assumption of ownership over them isn’t making a difference, except he becomes “great” or “imperial” if his doing so.

This is just tragic man, plenty will spin this a “setback” and as “re-set” speech. While the truth is… his still pending the time and buying the time. As he needs popular opinion behind him and the Republic accepting the “need”. That’s what he needs, because the drive and idea needs to whispered across the Republic. The PM has a solution and that’s to invade and conquer the ports. After that the “golden era” begins and he shall be crowned “king”.

That’s who Abiy is and the youth will die in thousands for his glory. Just like they already have across the nation. For years there been internal conflicts and now he will bring it to the Red Sea. That’s what Abiy does and don’t say people didn’t warn you. Because, the signs was there and now the circles of stones thrown in the water is making waves. Peace.

Ethiopia: Tsilal – Civil Society of Western Tigray – Statement from “Tsilal – Civil Society of West Tigray” on the third anniversary of the Maykadra massacre (10.11.2023)

Ethiopia: Is TIRA/TDF planning to attack Fano now?

Look, Lord, help.
★ If there is no threat to the safety and existence of the people of Tigray, there will be no reason for us to carry arms if the armed forces outside the defense force and the invading forces leave Tigray.
★ Although efforts were made by the leaders of the Amhara region to facilitate the process of the Pretoria agreement, we were forced to stop because the Pretoria agreement itself has started to be evaluated and negotiated.
★ It is not acceptable to all parties who are trying to prevent the implementation of the Pretoria Peace Agreement, we will fight against them”
(Eritrean Press, 12.11.2023).

The Tigray Interim Regional Administration (TIRA) which has been active and enacted as a part of the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA) barely a year ago. There is now speculations that the Tigray Defence Force (TDF), the force that hasn’t been incorporated into the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) or left their weapons behind. These can now get redeployed and ready for more conflict.

That’s the report here as they want to ensure the Tigray region is fully liberated. Because, the ENDF haven’t been able to get rid of the Eritrean Defence Force (EDF) or the Amhara (FANO) in Western Tigray. Therefore, the TDF are possibly getting back into warfare and joining the ENDF, which happens to be in an open conflict with FANO/Amhara Popular Front (APF) in the Amhara region.

With this in mind, the peace agreement sort of turns into a war-pact, as former adversary of Addis Ababa turns their guns on Gonder and Bahir Dar. That would be the ultimate revenge of Mekelle at this point. However, by the reports for now… it is more of taking back territories that the invading forces never left and has annexed. The same territories that the Prime Minister has opened up for a referendum, which would benefit the Amhara region and give them possibly more territories.

This will be the war of Welkait. The continues war over the Tegede, Telemt and Humera. We know after the invasion of Tigray. The Amhara region was quick to claim these territories and say it belong to them. That’s why they displaced thousands of people and ensured the villages go re-settled with Amhara settlers. Therefore, this has been a play for the long-term and now the Tigray plans to return to power there.

While the TIRA can rightfully claim Welkait, the Amhara region has the guns and the ability to stay put. If they was worried or didn’t anticipate this. They would have retreated a long time ago. Since, they know the force of the ENDF and these was the ones who was supposed to takeover after the CoHA. However, that haven’t happened and the TIRA and TDF lost face by signing the agreement. An agreement that haven’t been totally implemented or honoured by all signatories. That’s why there is possibly more conflict and this time the TDF would join the ENDF against Amhara militia and guerrilla fighters. As they are fighting for the Amhara and their own rights. It would be another chapter in changes of alliances and how fickle politics are in Ethiopia.

Under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali, it seems anyone can become an ally as long as they are useful, but the moment they are not following his whims. They can easily become his prey or his enemy, because they didn’t follow his command or his vibe that day. That’s how he operates and this is why so many of his former allies has fallen. It is why there been constant warfare and never silence of the guns.

This here would just spark further bloodshed and cause more harm. The TDF involved in a new conflict and to takeover former territories would only cause more civilian casualties. There won’t be peace and won’t be a better future. There will only be more death. Peace.

Opinion: Did TIRA/TPLF get outsmarted by the PP?

What did we (Prosperity Party) decide? First, let the internally displaced people (IDPs) return to their homeland. Their municipalities, their homes are known. Their numbers are also insignificant. Most of them have already returned. Let them return (to their homes). After they return, people can administer themselves, be Wolkait or Raya. Concerning security, ENDF and Federal Police will take charge. After that, let a referendum be conducted” – Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali (08.11.2023).

When the Prime Minister is saying this in the middle or during a lecture on Artificial Intelligence (A.I) yesterday. You can wonder what other tricks he has up his sleeve. Let me first state the “insignificant” numbers, which is outrages in itself.

OCHA Situation Report of 31st October 2023: “The Ethiopian Government is responding to food shortage gaps where possible. Accordingly, some 361,000 vulnerable IDPs in 24 woredas in Tigray received food assistance as part of the Government’s food response for 2023, with the first cycle distribution completed in August” (OCHA, 2023).

If someone says over 360,000 people are IDPs are “insignificant” than he shows the lack of heart. It shows how he values life and death in the Republic. Because, these numbers are worrying and showing how things has deteriorated in the Tigray region.

When you can be so blunt about IDPs and the amount of people. This is not mentioning the people who are in refugee camps in Sudan or elsewhere. Certainly, all of them hasn’t returned and these are the ones that was called “extremists” and “terrorists” during the war. Because, the vilification was on overload.

We are seeing the Prime Minister is playing to help former allies in Amhara. Just so they can claim Western Tigray or Wolkait or Welkait. That is the plan here. It is to give something to the ones fighting and get goodwill from Amhara region. As he is having a severe war there now. Just to show them support for their cause. If it is as easy as taking territories from the embattled Tigray region.

The ones in-charge in the Tigray Interim Regional Administration should be horrified. Because, the PM is taking away power and enforcing things out of their concern. If the referendum is enacted. The TIRA and TPLF will be hurt. Even if the local population doesn’t want it. Doesn’t mean the ballots cannot be tricked and the PM cannot give away the territories to buy “loyalty” in Amhara. That’s the end-game here and it’s so obvious, as his fighting FANO and other trained militias like the Amhara Popular Front (APF) there.

By the statement or comments by the Prime Minister the leaders of Tigray should listen. They are being outsmarted and outplayed. This is a beginning of getting your wings clipped off and you got nothing to say. As the CoHA agreement gives way to have federal army and police force in the region. Plus they can use the constitutional rights to issue a referendum. A referendum that will be smoke and mirrors to the allies of Amhara. That’s it… and it is to give way to the ones that used to be a part of the Tripartite Alliance. They are needed by the PM and he knows it. Peace.

Ethiopia: Global Society of Tigray Scholars and Professionals (GSTS) – Re: Marking the First Anniversary of hte Signing of hte cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA) and Addressing Statements from Parties to the CoHA on this Occasion (08.11.2023)

Ethiopia: Oromo Legacy Leadership and Advocacy Association (OLLAA) – Oromo Civilians continue to be Targeted by Fano Militia (07.11.2023)

Ethiopia: AfDB County Manager attacked by Security Officers…

There are widespread reports that the AfDB Group Ethiopia Country Office has suspended operations due to an attack on the Country Manager & Deputy Director General, Dr. Abdul Kamara. According to multiple news reports, Dr. Kamara was attacked by the security personnel of finance minister Ahmed Shide after Dr. Kamara questioned the Ministry of Finance about $5.2 million that was supposedly paid to AfDB, but appears to have been embezzled” (Biruk Haregu, 06.11.2023).

This here sets a bad precedence and is a sign of the times. There is only more trouble ahead and Ethiopia isn’t getting any better. Especially, when diplomatic and multi-national institutions like the Africa Development Bank County Manager is attacked and has to flee the Republic.

The Prosperity Party that needs donors and fiscal stimulus to keep the budgets a float. As the war-economy is biting and dwindling fresh funds. The FDRE needs partners and support for their development projects and in general domestic expenditure, which isn’t being covered easily these days. Therefore, the reports of an attack on the AfDB says something about the desperation of the PP at the moment.

They are willing to go down to this level of thuggery. The PP is acting vile and vicious against a supposed ally. This is a bank serving interests and finding out ways to invest in Ethiopia. That’s what the likes of AfDB does and its serves with great terms too on their loans. Therefore, to muffle and silence it… is outrageous and the other Development Banks should take note of this.

This here shouldn’t remain silent, but be loud. It shows what the state is willing to do. They can apparently just attack someone and do it easily. AfDB and no one else should worry about their safety, but apparently they need to. No one is safe and no is untouchable in the Republic. Peace.

Opinion: Abiy can go back to 1992 for a favourable agreement on the usage of the Assab or Massawa ports…

The Government signed a ports and transit services agreement with the State of Eritrea on 20 January 1992. According to the agreement, the ports of Assab and Massawa in Eritrea shall serve Ethiopia as transit ports for surface transport of goods originating from and destined for Ethiopia. It was provided in the agreement that the contracting parties shall endeavour to take all measures necessary for the expeditious movement of traffic and to avoid unnecessary transit delays of goods passing through their respective territories. The parties have agreed to simplify and harmonize transport and transit documents and procedures to facilitate the smooth flow of goods in transit. Similar agreements were signed for the road, air and communication services between the two countries” (…) “For years, Ethiopia’s foreign trade enjoyed constant access to the sea and foreign markets mainly through theports of Assab, Massawa, and Djibouti. The port of Assab, which has seven general cargo berths and well equipped handling facilities, alone handled over 75 percent of the country’s sea-borne dry cargo trade that flows via the Red Sea Corridor while Massawa and Djibouti shared the rest. Coffee, the main Ethiopian export, was mostly shipped via Assab, enjoying the preferential tariff and other advantages the port used to offer. The nation’s crude oil import is shipped in via this port and the products are distributed from there to the hinterlands by road after refinement. Petroleum products needed for use in the Eastern Regions of Ethiopia are trans-shipped through the port of Djibouti” (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development – Transit transport system in Ethiopia, 06.02.1995).

As the warning lights are going off and the Horn of Africa might seem more conflict. The warlord of Addis Ababa is never finished. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali who aren’t finished with the internal conflict in Amhara. Is trying to settle grievances in Tigray and has problematic affairs elsewhere in the Republic. That man is trying to forge another narrative and make reasons for an invasion.

An invasion of Eritrea, either for the bounds of owning ports or “Afar Unity”. Suddenly he cares about the people of Afar. The people he didn’t mind or work hard to defend when the internal war was going on in the Tigray region. That time it was the front-lines and several of zones was damaged in the Afar region. A region that was hit hard and also suffered as a consequence of the war in Tigray. They also fought and stood tall in the midst of adversity. However, now after the conflict, he suddenly cares about them and want their loyalty.

Yet, it is all for the megalomania of Abiy. He wants the prestige and greatness. No matter what agreement or favourable tariffs. That doesn’t really matter. He wants to be crowned king and be the greatest ruler. Even if he rules over dust after burning down the whole empire. He don’t mind death and massacres. Not as long as his the King and they are his peasants. That’s all that counts in the grand scheme of things.

Abiy will use Massawa and Assab as reasons for conquest. Even if it is re-starting an old conflict with Eritrea. The ownership question isn’t really that important, but he will fight over it. Just so he can be sovereign and be supreme. He will order soldiers and hope for allies to tag along. Because, he need troops and need mechanical divisions to create enough fronts to have an advantage. While he still fights in Amhara region and never been able to stagnate or silence the Oromo Liberation Army. Therefore, Abiy is going overboard and over reaching. He doesn’t have the capacity, but he don’t mind.

Abiy wants the glory and the tales that he “built” and “annexed” a Great Ethiopia. In that picture he needs a palace and access to the Red Sea. For him it doesn’t matter at what cost or consequences. No, that is just results of his orders. There are other people who will pay the price of their lives and livelihood. As long as he can stand by the waterfront and proclaim the divine power or ownership of it.

While a stranger and a random bloke would be happy for the agreements made in the past. Which favours the Ethiopian exports or imports through these ports. We know the FDRE has made agreements with Djibouti and used that as main ports for years now. However, Abiy wants to change that and have total control of it. Not just being a silent partner and a trading partner. He wants a say… even when Eritrea has allowed and accepted great terms. As this is beneficial for both nations. Peace.

Ethiopia: FDRE Government Communication Service – Statement of the Government of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia Regarding the first anniversary of the signing of hte “Agreement For Lasting Peace through a Permanent Cessation of Hostilities” (06.11.2023)