Opinion: Expect the Movement to celebrate mediocrity ahead of 2021

It isn’t enough that socialites like Zari Hassan is steering the conversation. That Bad Black switches camp and Jennifer Full Figure is all in this game. That Jose Chameleone trying to play both defence with the Democratic Party and offence with People Power Ticket. Meanwhile, Muntu and Mao will play second fiddle to Bobi Wine and Besigye. That is just the ways things are in the opposition ahead of 2021.

We all see this coming. But, expect one thing. The mediocre results will be cooked into greatness. The results since 1986 will be served like Michelin Star meal on high street. While the reality its a knock-off steak with very burned fries. Not really the high appeal nor the class its supposed to have.

The National Resistance Movement will use all its channels. Their Social Media Warriors, the media personnel they have hired. The UBC/NBS will be full fledged propaganda channel. Radios owned by sympathizers and own MPs will spread the message. All tarmac, all policies and pledges will be served like hot lava.

The NRM wants to look like the golden goose. They want to look like they did something. That they were meaningful and made a difference. These people will proclaim to be democratic, but the first moment a real opposition put its feet out. He or she will be arrested like a chicken thief.

The NRM will speak of infrastructure and rising development projects. However, they will not speak of foreign loans, grants and donors paying the high price of spiked prices. The most expensive road in the world nor the quality of tarmac or the work done by Chinese contractors. No, they will spread the message of the most tarmacked roads in the Republic. Because, who needs a functioning railway, who needs roads built for the rain or the upgrade of ferries. No, that is just hogwash.

The NRM will speak of its agriculture exports. Which it has amassed. Like it isn’t Nespresso and other foreign companies doing the bidding. Like the coffee exports before its time was good too. Not like the output didn’t matter in the past and the cash-crop idea is an old gift that keeps giving. No, they will profess magic. Even if the Operation Wealth Creation (OWC), the NAADs, SACCOs and now Emyooga are all ugly ducklings of spawned projects waiting for a corruption scandal to come. Like there been no ghosts, bad seedlings and public wasted funds to pay the invisible piper.

The NRM will talk big game on their programs, which haven’t been properly implemented. We can go back to the 10 Point Programme. One of the National Development Programmes, the third edition is coming soon. The Uganda Vision 2020, 2030 or 2030. There are so many plans, but so little will to follow it. Seems like a cash-cow awaiting its next prey to get funding from abroad. You needs some visionary skits to get the comedians from afar paying for dreams.

The NRM will never say all of this. They won’t, because they don’t have a heart. They will come with polished pictures, fine and dandy statements. All sort of numbers. Take the most beautiful schools or hospitals. We did this bitches, but they will not look into depleted ones. The schools forgotten in rural district. They will not care that a hospital haven’t paid its nurses or have cash to pay for electricity. No, they will not speak of that. Neither that teachers are boda-boda drivers on the side, because the salary from the state takes months to come.

The NRM will praise its efforts, its greatness. Yes, the State House is a fortress. The President has a few Presidential Jets. Has a giant convoy of SUVs, even a car for luggage. The man owns the state and they are following his every whim. However, they cannot come with as a slogan or a party program. They have to look smooth, collective and grand. Nevertheless, that doesn’t make it true.

That’s why the drama of the opposition. The entertainment factor, the singers singing songs and the entitlement comes to forefront. That’s why Bebe Cool and Jose Chameleone is on one side. Why Bad Black and Zari is on another. That is why the NRM is using Bebe and Ragga Dee, also Full Figure just smash it all together. So, that people forget the mediocrity and life moves on.

Since, everything is about nonsense, about characters who doesn’t carry their weight, but expect the leadership to do so. The Red Pepper Politics, the Onion and the mashed potatoes. Not the reality, the deception and the lackluster offerings of the state.

The NRM hopes their mediocre delivery can be turned to gold. They hope the public adores that and praises their game. Even if they are returning with roots and not with lions. Peace.

Opinion: Lord Mayoral candidate Chameleone [want to act green and red, but smells yellow]

Dr Jose Chameleone aka Joseph Mayanja are officially nominating himself as the candidate for Lord Mayor of Kampala on a People Power ticket. Surely combined with the Democratic Party, where his a member and been a National Mobilizer.

I don’t know if I can trust Chameleone. His been loyal to the President and campaigned for the National Resistance Movement (NRM) for years. Yes, a man can switch and change his allegiance. That is all natural, but don’t expect it to not follow him blindly either.

He wants to act all opposition, even picking the safe bet of being both part of the Democratic Party under the guidance of Mao and ticket on People Power Movement with the boost of Bobi Wine. It seems like a positive political bingo. Getting both the facade of a political party and support of the growing movement around Bobi Wine.

Chameleone might be able to trick a few as an entertainer, but I have hard time seeing him as a trusted candidate. He cannot even pay taxes on his cars. The man has plenty of times forgotten or deliberately not paid taxes on his SUVs. That has been an issue since 2012. If it is a Cadillac or Toyota. The musician have struggled to pay for it.

His possibly a legend in the field of music. A pop star and a man with many top singles. Chameleone have conquered that field, but as a politician his a start-up. With his past love and association with the NRM. I have question his sudden character of the opposition.

That his both with Mao and Bobi Wine shows that he wants to finesse this game. I don’t doubt him. Last campaign and after the General Election in 2016. The man defended the President, the whole “Tubonga Naawe” song and sends his congratulatory message after the rigged enterprise.

It is like the man now wants to forget all this. That the drive for campaign-money and support of the State House.

It is weird how quickly he went from being Yellow to Red or Green for that matter. That it was that simple. Chameleone just switched camps all over night. It is hard to figure out.

Now he wants to become the Lord Mayor of Kampala. Challenge the two term incumbent Erias Lukwago who went from DP to create his own party. Chameleone is overtaking the slot of Lukwago in the DP. Also, making himself more relevant by joining the PP. There is no other way to look at it. If he had done this for 2016, Jose would have used the TDA for his benefit.

I have little faith in Chameleone. Until he proves me otherwise, but I don’t want to be naive. Believe his words and “sudden” change of heart. It just seems like his put there to make the race harder for Lukwago. As the NRM cannot field any sensible candidate in Kampala. Peace.

Opinion: Mao’s candidacy is “hot-air”

People are saying that I won’t even get 1% . They are saying I don’t have supporters but when I say I am going to contest for the president, there is a lot of discussion on the matter. I don’t know why”Norbert Mao (02.07.2020)

It is official, the long awaited, the brutal honesty and the 2nd Time Candidate for the Presidency of the Republic, Norbert Mao of the Democratic Party. The steady guest on political talk-shows and often in the media. Trying to reign in rebels in his party and also seeing his high ranking officials cosying up the NRM.

Still, this is his third election. He stood as a candidate in 2011 without succeeding. For some uncertain and weird reasons. Mao wasn’t on the lists and registered in 2016. However, now he has come up and said his the Presidential Candidate of the Democratic Party in 2021.

That is not shocking, that is to be expected at this point. He has been here before, but was behind Amama Mbabazi in the last election cycle. So, don’t expect him to back neither Besigye nor Bobi Wine. DP wasn’t part of the IPC, but was a mate in the TDA. Don’t expect him to join forces in the UFC.

Mao is also very cynical about everyone else than himself. He can judge another candidate back to oblivion. Norbert can scrutinize and assess the others. However, not look at his own flaky actions. The DP has been moving in circles. Neither grown stronger or become a powerhouse.

Mao has tried to reign in the smaller DP brotherhood with Bwanika and Mabikke. However, we know these will not bring an electoral victory. Wonder if Abed Bwanika wants a place of honour, if the DP Block is still a thing. You can in the same regard wonder if the DP SPV with Muntu have done wonders too.

He can claim other opposition candidates doesn’t have tactics or strategies. Nevertheless, it is not like he has the magic potion or the successful method to overcome the dictatorship. He is just wandering around remembering old-age wisdom and theories. While not using the same intelligence on his own campaigns. It is easier to bring heat to others, then looking into his own work.

There got to be some real magic to change the end game. It would be enough for this man to stand as an MP in Gulu. He got that in him. Just like James Akena of the UPC to be an MP and not a Presidential Candidate. Be a leader of a party and still be in Parliament. That is cool, but Mao wants to honour of the top slot.

That is why his reluctant to work with other major opposition members. He don’t have the leverage to reign them in. Mao wish he would, but he doesn’t. Neither has his party. That is why the ones who become Cabinet members in the 10th Parliament left the fold. He knows this, he knows Mbidde could easily turn NRM. He would rub his hands and ditch Mao in a heartbeat.

So, Mao wants to be the big-man. He claims others doesn’t have the credentials or the plans, but his nothing coming with that either. It is a solo run, that will end dolo.

He can act like it is different. Come with some flex. Show some attitude and fancy queens English. Non of that will further the cause of the Mao. This is a repetition of 2011 in 2021. Peace.

Opinion: Bobi Wine’s Mission is to end the reign of Museveni

Ugandans need to understand what their Electoral Commission is. They need to know that in this situation, we have a dictator who has been playing around. President Museveni is now facing a generation and dynamics he has never faced before. This is close to a coup” Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine on NBS Morning Breeze (01.07.2020).

Well, this has been stated many times before, but the old man with the hat, the only man with a vision and self-styled President for Life. The Grand Dictator and ruler for Life is curbing the public. The President is putting himself in first before the Republic. That shouldn’t be shocked.

President Museveni will rig 2021 elections. As long as his one the ballot there will be other outcome than victory for him. Bobi Wine can challenge him, but this will not change the end result. The results was prepared and manufactured since 1986. That is just the reality on the ground. Yes, there is a new generation, but are they willing to take the cost or will they take a selfie? Will they go behind the banners and barricade the government buildings? Because that is the need. A revolution like the Republic never seen before. That is what the state needs and they needs leaders to inspire that.

Are you Bobi Wine ready to lead that revolt, stand on the barricades, be in the frontline and risk yourself again? Are you ready? Because, being on the ballot will not give you victory over Museveni. The Chief Rigger and Pre-Ticked Ballots Headmaster since the 1980s. That man will not loose in the polls. He will ridicule you and humiliate you. He will do what he can to bury your cause.

Museveni is at his weakest point. I dare him to a real election. Any candidate comfortable with this joke of a scientific election is working with him. Our mission is to take off Museveni. We are not joking” – Bobi Wine (01.07.2020).

The President might be weak, scared and afraid of the situation his in. Still, he has the military, the authorities and the bank to carry a load. The foreign backers are still doling out money to him to bankroll his operations. He got the guns, the appointed cronies and the greedy zealots will still be behind him. They will be there until they cannot skim the public anymore. This is the reality. Yes, I know the People Power and other opposition are not joking about taking Museveni out.

But you need more than the right words and the will to speak. This has been done plenty of times. The lessons of the past are not reignited. If the President was to weak, he would loose hold of the army, the pseudo army outfits and the Police Force. When he has lost them and the ones bailing him out. Then his on a fishing expedition and not knowing what to catch. Right now, that’s not the drill. His maybe afraid of the virus and catching COVID-19. However, that doesn’t make him reckless, it just makes him strategic and finding reasons to pull social distancing moves to save his grace.

I am here to put an end to the dictatorship. I have no business staying MP when Uganda is still under a dictatorship. This is not about me, Kyadondo was there before I was born. I just have to accomplish my mission now. I am here for a purpose” – Bobi Wine (01.07.2020).

That mission have to be amplified and harden its manners. To just be complicit in the activities of the state will not work. That behaviour has not won any favours in the past and will not challenge the President yet. Bobi Wine need to defy, civil disobedience and use other tools to beat the oppressive government. To be in the polls, on the ballot and campaign will not significantly change it. If that had been the cure, then Besigye would have secured the bill in either 2011 or in 2016. However, he didn’t and the “winner” was Museveni by the hook or by the crook.

The same will happen in 2021. To think otherwise is naive. It will be rigged and it will be a farce, all supported by the “high above” and Bobi Wine will be in the trenches seeking shelter from the rain of bullets. That is the reality and its coming for him quick. Peace.

Opinion: Besigye cannot win

We are in 2020 and Dr. Kizza Besigye cannot win… Yes, I said it. It is in this world that some persons are just destined to loose. Not because of their resilience or his vision. Besigye has fought, been in the midst of the battle and never gotten the pay-off.

No one has been arrested as many times as him for the cause of a peaceful transition of power. The fight for liberation from the junta and the military government of the National Resistance Movement (NRM). The government with the sole candidate since 1986.

There will claims there is no difference in the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) if he stands in 2021. Since, he will have been their Presidential Flag-Bearer in 2006, 2011 and 2016. Then suddenly he will return again in 2021.

Yes, Besigye have given away the Party Presidency and haven’t the same role as the President has in the NRM. The President is the Chairman of the Party and the President of the Nation. Not like the Secretary General of NRM has the power to change things, but has to meet the President to ask for the way forward. The same awaiting the decisions of the National Executive Committee (NEC).

Besigye is not in the same league there. Still, there will be questions, if he stands for the same position for the Fifth Time. That is all reasonable. That he is the automatic candidate. This is why Mugisha Muntu had to create the Alliance for National Transformation (ANT) to become the King there. Since no-one can pass Besigye in the FDC.

That is not strange. The foundation and party is in his hands. When they are in 2020 asking for him to return. Just like he was forced to return in 2016. The delegates then vouched for him. Now that Muntu is gone. There will surely be the same energy before the 2021 too.

Besigye have deserved a better fate. No one is denying the man that. He has struggled, eaten the humble pie and been beaten so brutally so many times. No one has been arrested, detained and charged for political activism at the level of Besigye. The amount of times is ridiculous and outrageous.

Still with this mind. All the pain and suffering. All the hard work and dedication for the cause seems somehow to backfire. If he will stand again as the FDC Flag-bearer. Then he is automatic or the sole candidate of the FDC. Not by default, but by design. It makes it look similar to NRM. Even if the NRM just have one king no matter what and FDC has the party asking him to resume the situation, yet again.

The NRM diehards attacking Besigye is throwing stones in a glasshouse. The glass and mirrors are breaking right in-front of their eyes. However, Besigye by no default of himself has gotten into this place. As the Self-Styled President for Life has put him into a quagmire.

There is sort of the argument of sole candidacy, which can be put on him as well. Especially, when his the brother standing for the fifth time for the FDC. Yes, Besigye is a force to be reckoned with. That is why his arrested so much and house-arrested for so long for no other reason then his own self. However, that doesn’t beg the question: Is he the only one who can be the Presidential Candidate in the FDC in 2021? Is there no other man who can take up the mantle and finesse this game?

I don’t have the answer. I know that Besigye is unique and has a message for a peaceful transition out of this dictatorship. Still, people haven’t listened or followed suit. He has suffered and paid the price for standing up endlessly. He has paid the price for that, time and time again.

If he becomes the fifth time candidate for the FDC. The question will easily become personal too. Because, then there are similarities in the drive between Museveni and Besigye. Since they both are “owning” their parties as sole candidates. Yes one has all power and can force himself, while the other has delegates giving it to him. Still the perception is key too. The signal it might send. That should worry the FDC.

That should worry Besigye if he does stand. Since he then shows traits of a man, that his supposed to differ from and we know he differs from. Still, the inevitable will come up. That is why Muntu is a sole brigade in ANT. Since he had no shot within FDC to become king and he needed his own outfit to do so.

Now we got to see, if fifth time is the charm. In this regard, Besigye cannot win. If he stands he shows a sign of sole candidacy. If he doesn’t stand he cannot win either. Since his not playing and when your not playing you cannot win. It is the sort of game where it is all rigged for you to loose.

In concern of Besigye, that is his life work and his loosing. Not by default of himself, but by measures of the state working against him. That is why he continue to loose. Just like all opposition, but he has been there the longest and he continue to be there. Besigye cannot win and that is the default setting of the society and the systems around him. Peace.

Opinion: Bobi Wine will enter Luzira before 2021

“What we are going for are elections provided for within the law. We shall hold public rallies, talk to the people and move from district to another because there is no reason whatsoever for us to hold scientific elections”Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine at Press Conference on the 24th June 2020

I don’t want anyone pain, harm or suffering. I don’t, but still I can see on the horizon that Bobi Wine challenging the Self-Styled President for Life, Yoweri Kaguta Museveni only going to end one way. That way is being in bracelets and behind bars.

Not because Bobi Wine is a criminal. Not that his actions deemed fit to be in the pen. No, its just a matter of principal and modus operandi of the state. If you challenge the King, his Court and his Vision. Your practically an outlaw and a outcast. Someone who you can easily arrest, detain and block. That is just how things are.

Not that these ideas, ideals of the state are justified. Hell no, they are just methods of fighting dissidents and silence the opposition. We can all see this and feel it. We have all seen it happen, again and again. The return of the wagon, of the tear-gas, of the anti-riot police and the whole brigade to stop the opposition. Sometimes even barricade their homes, make them a makeshift prison and house-arrest without any warrants. That is just what this state does to its self-created enemies.

Bobi Wine is one of them. His aiming at the throne. He got vast part of the public behind him. A force to be reckoned with by now. That he even dares to do this.

If he does act upon his words. Mark my words. His going to Luzira Prison at one point. He is going there and staying there for a long time. Bobi Wine will be charged with treason, malicious attempts, dismay to public order and such such. That is just what state does. It is inevitable.

Not that I want the man to get this toll, to bear this pain and to carry this load. No, its unjust and unfair. Its injustice in nature and in spirit. The man only causes harm to himself, but further his cause. It’s a justified cause, but its costs. The cost is time and suffering. Something this man has already been through. The same with his ally Dr. Kizza Besigye. He has also gone through this more than once.

If Bobi Wine moves on this. The authorities, the police and army will be on his tail, asap. There will be no redeeming factor there, only begging for mercy. While being in a wagon on the way to Luzira.

The ironic part about this is that Museveni promised a fundamental change when he came to power. However, with time that change has withered, there is no change. Just another head of state who is willing to break the bones of the ones going against him. Peace.

Opinion: Bobi Wine’s ideal is commendable, but his warning to Mzee will not be followed

Today, the People Power Movement hold a Presser in the home of Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine in Kyadondo East, Wakiso District. This is not the first time he has held a press conference there. That is just the way things are in the Republic. Today’s Presser is an answer to the “Scientific” elections in the revised road map for the General Elections in 2021.

We know Bobi Wine is a fierce speaker and he proven that yet again today:

Museveni, like all dictators before him, is determined to keep in power at any cost. He does not care what happens to the people of Uganda, as long as he is in State House! Fellow Ugandans, Museveni is at it again. He recently met with the Electoral Commission and gave them orders to organize what he called a scientific election. Using the coronavirus as an excuse, he is banning public rallies and other aspects of an election as we know them! No Ugandan should be fooled into believing that Museveni is doing this for the safety of Ugandans. As we speak now, most urban places are filled with people going about their usual business uninterrupted. No social distancing, no nothing. If anyone has any doubts, please visit Kikuubo, or any other urban place. Therefore Museveni and the Electoral Commission should not take Ugandans for fools” (Bobi Wine, 22.06.2020).

What he said here is the truth. Bobi Wine just said what’s needed to be said. Many wouldn’t dare saying this and with his platform he still does it. Plenty of more people will listen, because he said it. Kizza Besigye has said similar before, in other instances, but now that Bobi Wine says it. It might have more flair to it. As it yet another leader of the opposition who sees it.

But let me use this opportunity to put President Museveni on notice. You might have forgotten what you said in 1980 but we have not forgotten. On the eve of the 1980 election, you, Museveni, put Obote on notice. You said that if he rigged that election, you would go to the bush and fight against him. We have come to that point yet again. We are telling you that you either organize a free and fair election or step down peacefully, but if you continue provoking the patience of the people of Uganda, they will rise up against you and you will end up in the dustbin of history like your friend Ghadafi, like your friend Mobutu and like your friend Omar El Bashir” (Bobi Wine, 22.06.2020).

Here is revisiting history, a history that the President has been proud of and repeated so that all generations and walks of life knows. The President cannot hide that. Museveni is so proud of how he got to power and all the people he finessed to get there. We all know this, as it has been blasted for years and years to the public. He has even walked twice in the steps of the bush-war to celebrate the civil war he was the victor of back-in-the-day.

Bobi Wine’s notice is noble idea. It is righteous step. However, there is no way in hell that Museveni will hold a free and fair elections. President Museveni wouldn’t win in a free and fair election. He knows this and the whole Republic knows this. That is why he has total control of the Electoral Commission and all other authorities needed to own the state.

The opposition are right and justified to ask for a free and fair election. Anyone who takes a stand and wants to challenge for public office should be able to do so. Where everyone has the same opportunity for everyone. Where everyone has the same difficulties and everyone who becomes a candidate can win and can challenge the results without interference in the elections. However, that is not how its in the republic where the state and the incumbents of the government has an upperhand with resources and control of the Electoral Commission.

Bobi Wine and everyone else is allowed to say their grievances towards this system. A system built for Museveni and his cadres. The 2021 election will not differ from 2016, 2011, 2006, 2001 and 1996. All of these has been rigged, just like they have tried to do with every single by-election too. This is not news, but a reality that the President has created over the years.

The challenge is healthy, the challenge is needed, but hopefully not just words. But a STERN WARNING about what Bobi Wine and the United Forces for Change (UFC) will deliver. I don’t believe a second that the National Resistance Movement or the President will not rig these up-coming election. That would be a lie. A big FAT lie. This regime knows only how to win by pre-fixing the results to their advantage. To say otherwise is naive and stupid.

Bobi Wine did the right thing, but the state will not steer the wheel differently. For the simple reason: They are not willing to loose, because this is all they have. Peace.

Digital Campaigning: Expect opposition candidates to be blocked from the air-waves during the campaigns…

The Electoral Commission released the Road Map for the General Elections of 2021 today. This is so everyone involved, every stakeholder and party can adjust their programs. They can work towards the deadlines, deliver their nominated candidates and prepare for impact. We can all assume this is done for some transparency. However, there been no legislation nor any changes of substance since the 2016 General Elections. So expect another rigged race and outcome, which is already pre-fixed by the buddies within the EC.

To think otherwise in 2020 is naive and deluded. The National Resistance Movement (NRM) will own the Parliament, will hold the stranglehold on the Presidency and will only give breadcrumbs to the Opposition. That is what it does to show sympathy and also prove to donors that it has some sort of democracy. Even when all know it isn’t real and there are no level playing-field.

The Road Map today was striking and COVID-19 based, as the EC is preparing for digitally campaigning for all the parties involved. The Electoral Commission stated today this: “Mass rallies will not be allowed but campaigns will be conducted mainly through media” (EC, 16.06.2020).

With this in mind, the candidates on various of levels has a short span of time to hit the airwaves, online outlets and on the TV screens. This is coming as the state has enforced the OTT Tax and made it expensive to be on social media. The state also known for blocking opposition leaders to on the local radios. If they are sincere in this election. They will open up the radios, let the opposition candidates have conversations and appeal to the public through there. As the rural areas isn’t fully operative with internet to every village and home. There are not even electricity to every home. That is why this strategy will backfire and someone will not get the whole gist from all candidates.

We can also expect that the President and the NRM blocks the airwaves for the times of the speeches of the President. Especially in the time frame of the digitally campaigns. That is just inevitable. He will block Besigye and Bobi Wine from speaking out at the same time. He will not accept that. That is hurting his fragile ego.

There are just something we can anticipate. There will be self-made sessions on Facebook and Live Taping, which is not needed with any media house. However, if the people want to reach far and wide. Than they need to hit the airwaves, needs to be on the TV stations and be able to speak across the platforms. We have seen in the past that the Uganda Communication Commission has sanctioned Radios, TV stations for having Bobi Wine on. They have also blocked Besigye, even RDCs has blocked Besigye for appearing on Radio shows. So, we anticipate a hurdle and destructive patterns here.

The system and control from high above will be visible here. I don’t expect it to really change. However, they should if they want it to look good. I expect arrests, house-arrests and other things. Just as the opposition are trying to travel to radio stations and such. That is just the sad reality Also expect police to block stations and stop from transmitting. This is just something that will appear. Later the UCC and RDC will have an excuse and do it for “safety”. Even if the Opposition is supposed to be allowed on the airwaves. While the NRM candidates and Flag-Bearers can do whatever they feel.

This is just my imagination, but I don’t think its far fetched from the possibly reality in a few months time. Unless, they suddenly opens for rallies and then venues will be closed. Where the Opposition will be chased by the authorities and sometimes end behind bars. Peace.

Another Opposition Coalition (UFC) to beat Mzee: Will it work this time?

There was once upon a time the Inter-Party Cooperation (IPC) for the 2011. This was a coalition of six parties, while three parties later had a fall out with it and its choices. Therefore, the Democratic Party (DP), Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) and Social Democratic Party (SDP) both went out and ran on their own. DP and UPC wanted to run their own Presidential Candidates, while SDP was furious that the mayoral choice for Kampala. We know that this didn’t work at this General Election. The coalition in the end was a mix of Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), Conservative Party and Justice Forum (JEEMA).

For the 2016 General Election there was another Opposition Coalition in play. This was the Democratic Alliance (TDA), which consisted of various of opposition parties too. However, here the parties that pulled out of it was the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) to field their own Presidential Candidate. The ones remaining was the pressure group Go Forward (Amama Mbabazi), Pressure for National Unity (PNU) Gilbert Bukenya, Democratic Party (DP), Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) and Justice Forum (JEEMA). We see here that DP and UPC didn’t ditch it, as Norbert Mao couldn’t run and James Akena didn’t run for the Presidency this time. Because these parties challenged with Mao (DP) in 2011 and Olara Otunnu (UPC), but this round they couldn’t or wasn’t fit. That is why they supported the candidacy of Amama Mbabazi (Go Forward). We know that Amama and the TDA flame fizzled out quickly.

So, when I heard today that the Pressure Group People’s Power Movement (PPM), Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), Justice Forum (JEEMA), Truth and Justice (TJ), Conservative Party (CP), Democratic Party (DP) and Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) are all involved in the United Forces for Change (UFC) for the 2021 General Elections.

The main leaders this time is Dr. Kizza Besigye (FDC) and Robert Kyagulanyi (PPM). Alliance for National Transformation (ANT) Mugisha Muntu has opted out and at this time his right not to join. His reasons are clear, but it’s a bit funny. Because he had no issues with joining the Special Utility Vehicle (SUV) of the Democratic Party (DP) and the union of similar parties. So, in this regard it might be spite, because he would still be in the shadow of former leader and party president of the FDC. That is just how it looks from the outside looking in. When leaders from all the other opposition parties are joining. Not that its shocking, but don’t expect everyone to join the ride.

Expect the DP to fall out, as Mao has grudges with Besigye. JEEMA, TJ and CP will be on the ride the whole time. They only gain positives by it and have a bigger platform during the election cycle. However, with the past history. The grinding questions of how close the UPC is to the NRM. There will only be fringes of the party to join the UFC. Akena will not ditch the money train of the NRM Alliance to be part of UFC. Also with all the things Mao has done behind the scenes, I don’t expect him to run behind Besigye and Bobi Wine. His already a bit mad at Besigye for some unfortunate reason. So, we can only imagine that he will ditch out here for the DP Block and whatever he calls it. So, I anticipate the UPC and DP to tell its members to come home. If they don’t than they are betraying their parties. That is why Lukwago is a TJ and not a DP anymore.

Let me clear after all that said: Yes, I want change, but if you cannot see a pattern here. These platforms, these coalitions aren’t making it. There is a reason there is a need for many challengers. The strength, their vision and their manifestos comes out and can change things up. To beat the NRM by the polls, by an election is futile. That has been proven since 1986. Not because of lack of trying. Not because there haven’t candidates suitable or popular to beat Museveni. No, because there haven’t been the will to give way for a peaceful transition. Museveni will not loose now either. He will rig the election into oblivion. No matter what the opposition throws at it, the results will be about the same. Just different faces, unless they want to show civil disobedience and actually attack the heart of the government. Break it down to its knees and ensure its downfall. That will cost, but through the polls. I can assure you, nothing will happen. The status quo continues and the same party reign supreme. They got the guns and the authorities to send the others packing.

The UFC will have the same fate as IPC and TDA. Maybe more finesse behind Bobi Wine than a insider and friendly NRMer in Amama. Still, the UFC will only have a fools hope. Just like Frodo in the Lord of the Rings. As Gandalf said in ‘The Return of the King’:

Tell me,’ he said, ‘is there any hope? For Frodo, I mean; or at least mostly for Frodo.’ Gandalf put his hand on Pippin’s head. ‘There never was much hope,’ he answered. ‘Just a fool’s hope, as I have been told. And when I heard of Cirith Ungol–‘ He broke off and strode to the window, as if his eyes could pierce the night in the East. ‘Cirith Ungol!’ he muttered. ‘Why that way, I wonder?’ He turned. ‘Just now, Pippin, my heart almost failed me, hearing that name. And yet in truth I believe that the news that Faramir brings has some hope in it. For it seems clear that the Enemy has opened his war at last and made the first move when Frodo was still free. So now for many days he will have his eye turned this way and that, away from his own land. And yet, Pippin, I feel from afar his haste and fear. He has begun sooner than he would. Something has happened to stir him.”- J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King

In the same way I look at this UFC. Not because I don’t want the junta, the militarized government and the oppressors out the Republic and into a proper civilian government. I want all of that to happen. The injustice has been going on for far too long. However, using similar tricks to beat the same dragon. I doubt it will have affect. Even if it has a new potential leader and could be the Frodo who gets the ring to Mount Doom to change history of Middle Earth to break the power of Sauron and Mordor. Still, that is a fools errand to believe that, even if the hope is there. Just like it was plenty of times with Besigye.

We need the hope and have fate that someone will bring the ring to Mount Doom. However, is this the team and the pacifier to stop the NRM? I don’t have the answer… I really don’t, but I just want them to challenge the authorities head-on and not play games that has been fought before. The names changes, but the end game stays the same.

Bobi Wine is maybe Frodo here, but that is only a lucky guess. Then Besigye is his Samwise Gamgee. But we don’t know that and Sauron continues to deploy his troops and ensure that no one gets unscratched by his army of Orcs. Right? You get the drill?

I don’t have the answers, but I just feel we are repeating history without crossing the authorities with enough power and finesse. We are doing the same old thing and getting nowhere. Stalling awaiting for the lucky brother to find the Ring in the river and get turned into Gollum. Instead of being a Frodo going into a journey, which will change everything, but will also cost. Peace.

Ministry of Kampala Capital City and Metropolitan Affairs: Press Conference on the Guidelines for Opening Public Transport Post-COVID 19 Lockdown (28.05.2020)