Opinion: The PDM seems like a failure from the on-set

“Only 3,200 out of the targeted 10,594 Saccos have been cleared to receive Parish Development Model (PDM) cash after meeting requirements as outlined under the implementation guidelines, the government has said” (…) “Ms Nabbanja said all the ready Saccos are to receive the funds directly to their bank accounts. The government has so far released Shs80.92b to cater for the first quarter, while Shs1.05 trillion was earmarked as revolving funds to the PDM Saccos in this Financial Year 2022/2023. During yesterday’s meeting, the premier approved disbursement of funds to three Saccos from Otuke, Butaleja and Lira districts as model Saccos” (Peter Sserugo – ‘Over 7,000 Saccos miss PDM money’ 12.10.2022, Daily Monitor).

The latest news that only one third of the SACCO’s are able to receive partly the Parish Development Model (PDM). The Government of Uganda has made the PDM the biggest development investment and is the biggest programme after the 2021 General Elections. This follows several of other micro-financing schemes, which haven’t delivered.

Now, after Parliamentary Reports and investigations into the PDM. There has been revelations already that the SACCOs, the local governments and everyone who was about to be involved in the PDM wasn’t prepared. So, it’s not shocking that only a third of the SACCOs are able to reach on time.

This is a rushed enterprise, where the state and the high ranking officials has pushed it through without having it all coordinated from the top to the ones down in the hierarchy. That’s why when Prime Minister Nabbanja is today disbursing funds. There is a lack of totality. This because of the warnings, which previously mentioned hasn’t been regarded.

The government haven’t prepared or didn’t consider the implications of it. That’s why later the Ministries and the high ranking officials had to make procedures for due diligence and for some sort of oversight. Though with this sort of disbursement, there will most likely be mischief and be misgivings. It is bound to happen. The mere scale of it and the possibilities are endless.

While the PDM is promised to be a game-changer, it will only end up in the dust-bin of time. The writing has already been on the wall and this sort of operation isn’t making it better. Today just shows again how it’s failing. I cannot wait to read new Parliamentary Reports about these disbursed funds and how it didn’t go where it was anticipated. This is bound to end in tears and tragedy. Not because I want to see it, but for one simple reason.

The PDM wasn’t prepared or regulated properly before the government launched. When you do that and with such vast funds. It is bound to be painful. The proverb of “missing funds” is an upcoming theme. The funds will not cause a massive change or be significant to be substantial in any manner either. It might change some lives and ensure their livelihoods. However, in the grand scheme of things… it will not revolutionize the economy or the financial markets. That needs another breed and more robust financial mechanism, which does various of things and not move money from one account to another.

There will be more about the PDM in the future. Just like there been revealed the fallouts and the failures of Emyooga, Operation Wealth Creation and all the similar micro-financing schemes from the government. It is just a creature that is bound to die. We just don’t know when to have the funeral or when the sing the psalms of David. Peace.

Opinion: The PDM is set to destroy the parastatals supplying Coffee and Tea Seedlings…

“Rt. Hon. Speaker, as you may be aware, up until FY 202l /2022, Government policy has been for Uganda Coffee Development Authority (UCDA) and National Agricultural Advisory Services (NAADS) to procure seedlings from certified Coffee and Tea Nursery Operators. However, Government has since decided to transfer funding previously appropriated for procurement of seedlings from UCDA and NAADS to the Parish Development Model (PDM) starting this FY2022/2023” (Statement to Parliament on the Supply of Coffee and Tea Seedlings, 22.09.2022).

The latest revelation of the Parish Development Model (PDM) will by this Financial Year takeover the powers to buy Coffee and Tea Seedlings, which has been done through the UCDA and NAADs. We know that similar activities was also in the past done through the Operation Wealth Creation (OWC). Though through those schemes wasn’t delivering the quality or the promised needs of seedlings at any given time.

When we have seen how the OWC and NAADs has failed in this. They are now putting this in the hands of the PDM and the Secretariat, which isn’t even prepared to do the basics of the PDM. The PDM is supposed through SACCOs and through the Local Government ensure Parish SACCOs get’s microfinance loans and funds, which is supposed to help development. However, the authorities, the local leadership and republic wasn’t prepared for it. As it was launched ahead of the polls, just like Emyooga, OWC and now the PDM. This is new minted schemes to be a “trick” to be the “silver bullet” to end poverty, but it ends up in nowhere.

Now in the middle of nowhere is the coffee and tea seedlings. Which are now transferred to an entity that cannot even do it’s core. Money is wasted, money isn’t received and we are certainly hearing about “missing funds” soon.

So, an organization that has been rushed, lacked funding and procedures is taking over something so vital for the supply of seedlings for the cash-crops of coffee and tea. That’s significant and shouldn’t be showed under the rug. This is a move to stop accountability and control of it. As we know the Republic is already under scrutiny with the Uganda Vinci Coffee Company Limited (UVCCL).

It’s just iffy that this happens now. That seems fishy to me and it seems coordinated too. This is clearly taking away power and making the UCDA meaningless. Only a place to put some loyal cadres and giving them a pay-check, but having little power or oversight since the PDM and UVCCL will have monopoly. The farmers just have to produce and the Republic will take care of the rest. This is from seedling to the refined product.

They are even taking away the little powers and ability the UCDA has and doing this is shady. That’s why they are giving it to the PDM, which they know have to much on its hands. This isn’t strengthening the agricultural development, but making another scheme within the scheme. To fit another scheme they have already made. The PDM is now becoming a part of the UVCCL. That’s really interesting move and just shows what the National Resistance Movement (NRM) does at this point.

No one should be shocked, but they should be worried about this move. This isn’t done to make the cash-crop more profitable or better. We know how the OWC failed with the procurement and logistics of seedlings. Do you really think the PDM will be any better? Who are they trying to fool here? Who is the ones who are losing and are the party they are crushing?

Because, there are parties, companies and co-ops that are hurt by this. Since the PDM is taking over and there should be outrage over this. Like the NRM and the Government didn’t learn from the failure of OWC. That’s what is striking… and just shows that it doesn’t care. While it could be a scheme to fit the UVCCL and that makes it even more disgusting. Peace.

Opinion: Parish Development Model (PDM) won’t eradicate poverty but it will become someone’s heist

The newly minted eradication of poverty model in the Republic. That was launched ahead of the polls in 2021. Now in 2022 it is obvious that scheme is bound to fail. It was inevitable… because none of the previous ones had any change or luck either. They have been doing this since the 1990s and nothing has worked.

So, now that the Republic is using 1 Trillion Shillings on it. You would think they had the magical point and the right tools to make it legit. While that is far from the truth. All the things that has been uttered and stated about is an epic failure. From the onset, there was no true organization, framework or even policies at its disposal. Even when the PDM is using similar means as in the past.

The recent weeks of arrests in Mitooma, Kabale and Kitgum over it only shows how badly it is going. In addition to the news of lacking disbursement in Masindi. This is just very compelling of the problematic approach to government spending or even institutionalize these sorts of government programs. When local government officers and employees are part of the gig and get caught slipping.

Certainly, the PDM was supposed to be another “magical bullet” to solve the issue of poverty. Until proven otherwise… I doubt it and there is no sign of improvement. Especially, considering the reports in combination with the reports that is already out. The statements of the Minister of Finance isn’t making the situation anything better either.

When you are spending like a drunk sailor and telling people to sober up. While inviting the sailor to a pub. You know what will go down and what the sailor will do. The sailor will get drunk and be on his merry way. That’s the same thing here… and it’s so in the open.

This PDM is bound to be a big-man’s heist. As there are no protocols, possible oversight or even systematic approach to safeguard the spending. The open corruption, mismanagement and impunity isn’t helping either.

Surely like in so many other instances there been giveaways, kickbacks and planned efforts to circumvent the rules to gain funds from the state coffers. This is happening as the state claims this is the way out. Nevertheless, it begs the question, why will it work now?

When we are so easily seeing the cracks. Reading the reports and the statements from high ranking officials. Heck, the few assessment reports on the PDM that have been released are grim. It is daunting that this won’t be it. Just another heist of the high and mighty. This won’t solve anything else than empty coffers and excuses for the ones in power. No, this will not help the ones in need or the ones it is intended to help. No, they are pawns for the kings and queens. They are the first to go out and loose anyway. This game is rigged and the PDM is no different.

Not like that is anything new either. “Missing Funds” is a proverb in the republic. The elites and the ones in the inner circle are eating. That is clear and the systems are made for them. This is why this latest scheme will be beholden to them too. They will find ways to disburse and ensure them a hefty pay-off.

So, expect someone to run with the bag and the State House looking idly by, because they have already a deal. This PDM is just the latest one to trick the public that they will initially do something. However, don’t be fooled. They will not do anything sincere, but only find a way of earning profits on the poverty that does exist. That’s been their trick and it continues to be so. Peace.

A Parliament Report states the government wasn’t prepared to launch the PDM

The now released March 2022 Parliamentary Report: “REPORT OF THE COMMITTEE ON PUBLIC SERVICE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT ON THE STATUS OF THE IMPLEMENTATION Of THE PARISH DEVELOPMENT MODEL IN THE FY 2021/22” is stating a lot of facts, which is damning to the 1 Trillion Shilling Budget Post this Financial Year 2022/23. As the launch and the start of the Parish Development Model (PDM) is lacking basic government structures and even policies. This means the state is risking the whole 1 trillion shillings on a hope and a prayer. That’s the gist of it and it’s tragic.

The warnings has been there on the horizon. It isn’t like people haven’t seen it coming. This follows a long list of poverty eradication programs, which are mentioned in this report. While the state or government has never changed their approach. They have just re-invented the same of micro-finance scheme and rebranded it since the early inception of the National Resistance Movement (NRM).

That’s why it’s tragic that they have spent fortunes since the 1990s and still haven’t cracked the code. Certainly, the administration of it has been lacking, secondly the lack of policies and oversight. In addition, the NRM haven’t gotten proper results either. So, this report just shows where the failure is this time and the NRM launched a program and scheme without the proper due diligence. They haven’t even taken care of the basics and spending like a drunk sailor on this. This will end up on hookers and booze in the next safe-haven for the veteran seaman. Therefore, this will not end well…

Here is quotes from the Report:

“Currently, there is no clear policy that sets the overall tone of the implementation of the PDM. Some of the closest policy frameworks on which the PDM is premised include; the Constitution of the Republic of Uganda (1995 as amended) under article 176, 2b, d and e) and the Local Government Act Section 95, 96 and 97. Unfortunately, these are not sufficient in setting the basis for developing the guidelines, development of a clear and realistic implementation roadmap for the PDM. The Decentralization policies presented by the Minister do not regulate certain pillars like financial inclusion, infrastructure and mindset change under the model. The Committee further observed that a clear policy framework for PDM will provide a vision, goals and principles to guide actions and implementation. The policy framework would clearly spell out the roles and responsibilities of each and every MDA, The governing framework on PDM, the oversight function, monitoring and evaluation and many others. Without the policy it will be very challenging to address some issues that may impede the PDM implementation and could lead to duplication of funding and services and further disoriented the public perceptions of the PDM” (Report, P: 9-10, 2022).

“The Committee observed that, though there were previous government interventions to improve citizens’ socio economic conditions, the issues of building the entrepreneurial capacity of the population adequately has been locking. This is been identified as one of the reasons for the poor performance of some of the previous interventions. The committee further observed that many enterprises identified by some of the beneficiaries under the previous interventions were not within their knowledge and ability, leading to poor performance and in most cases collapsing of the enterprises. This is one of the causes of poor recovery of previous funds” (Report, P: 15, 2022).

“Since 1987, Government hos implemented various interventions to reduce poverty in Uganda. These include; the rural farmer’s scheme (1987), Entandikwa scheme (1996), the Poverty Eradication Action Plan (PEAP) (1990), Kulembeka (To tap) (2001), Prosperity for All programme (Bonna Bagagawale) 2007, Operation Wealth Creation (201l), Emyooga 2020, Youth Livelihood Programme and Uganda Women Entrepreneurship Programme. The Committee observed that those interventions have not positively impacted on the long term poverty situation in the rural and urban communities. Poverty levels continue to be high at 39% despite the interventions. There is a need to appreciate the fact that poverty eradications a responsibility of the poor themselves and government programmes only supplement their cause” (Report, P: 17, 2022).

These quotes from the Parliamentary Report of March 2022 states certainties that can be detrimental for the whole scheme and the PDM itself. The NRM should know better and be professionals, but instead they have just started a fresh without the tools, which is needed. That is what the Report says and it’s damning.

The NRM and the Government of Uganda should have more structure before spending like crazy. However, here it is clear that the various parts of the PDM wasn’t prepared. Neither the main ethos, policies or the procedures wasn’t prepared. The state only had prepared budget-posts and planned spending. However, they haven’t built the structures or the mechanisms to make it work. That’s really foolish, but on code or modus operandi for the NRM.

So if this falls or fails miserably… well… everyone could see it coming. There was no reason for it to work. The only reason why it could work is the people it is actually reaching and making a difference. However, that’s just a fools luck and not based on prior work before the launch. It is like a brother going to bar and gets lucky. Not because he knew a lady was ready there or his charm would be enough. He just went anyway and got lucky. There was nothing saying he would get lucky, but he did… because he was at the right place and at the right time. That’s what the NRM is trying to do here and they are throwing one trillion shillings at it. Peace.

Opinion: Mzee wants it to BOP his way

You want another rap? Nah, didn’t think so. Even if President Museveni wants a BOP. Not a DaBaby track or anything. His just approved the US$500 million dollars to the Republic. This was reported earlier this month and he approved it on the 6^th of May 2020, but stamped by the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MoFPED) on the 11^th of May 2020.

What is unique here is that this loan is given on the idea of “Balance of Payments”. Economist would know that this to cover the deficit and the balance the budgets. This is to ensure the state has enough revenue to already cover the deficit it has. That is why grants and loans comes to ensure the levels of revenue covers the spending. This means that the state has spend a hundred dollars, but only had 50 dollars in liquidity. So, to ensure the accounts are balanced, the BOP comes in and fix the shortfall.

Museveni writes this in the letter:

“The money that goes to the Bank of Uganda is for “balance of payments support”. “Balance of Payments supports” does not only mean helping the country to “import more” but must also mean helping the country to “import less” by manufacturing these products here. With this undertaking, I approve the loan” (Museveni, 06.05.2020).

Because what the support does in the instance of the hundred dollars budget with a shortfall of 50 dollars revenue. The BOP support is the missing 50 dollars and makes it zero. Meaning, the accounts and financial flows should turn into zero. That means with the budget with its expenditure and its revenue its should be a nil or zero sum game. Therefore, when the President claims this helps local industry and less imports. I don’t see it.

Especially, if this is a BOP. Because, a BOP is a fixated way of balancing the budgets, not secure more trade. Its to cover deficits between expenditure and revenue. This isn’t a magical sphere of happiness and joy. This is budgetary measure to cover the shortfalls and lack of domestic revenue. To cover expenses that appeared or was already budgeted. Therefore, the need of Balance of Payments from the IMF to cover those.

This can be seen as a Financial Inflow to cover the deficit.

Like this:

-100 dollars budget/Import

+50 dollars revenue/Export

+50 dollars Financial inflow (BOP Support)

= 0

That is why, when the man says like this. Its a game of balancing the budget. Not putting a wand on the thing and swiftly changing things. This is just a financial measure to cover a deficit. A short-term solution to a shortfall. That will not solve anything, but by time. Not cover debt, not create a market nor make a big difference. Its just covering expenditure. Nothing else.

The President can make it seem so, but that wouldn’t be a BOP. That would be another instrument and another measure. Where the funds was actually meant for investment. This is covering the basics.

Let me end with DaBaby: “I needed some shit with some bop in it (Let’s go)” (DaBaby – ‘BOP’ of KIRK, 2019). Peace.

Statement by the People Power Movement on the IMF Rapid Credit Facility Announced on 6th May 2020 (09.05.2020)

Opinion: Don’t let Mzee pimp a second round of debt relief

Back in the day, President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni in the end of the 1990s the World Bank let the Republic of Uganda the opportunity to join their Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) to cut the debt of the Republic. However, even with the massive amount of debt relief done in 1998 and later never stopped him from taking up more debt.

That is why the amount of interests paid on every single budget is debt burden, which is created by the President himself and his extensive cronyism. The President has ensured that the state owns so much money, while he stills continues the drill by financing half of it by more debt. Which has been method the National Resistance Movement (NRM) and Mzee has used in the recent years.

That is why such a big amount of funds is going into interest payments. Also, why the Republic are going in a negative spiral, while the lack of domestic revenue isn’t following the projections of growth that the state always promises.

With the knowledge of this, as the President is asking for a debt relief now. His using the Coronavirus or COVID-19. The whole world are into a recession because of this. It is the perfect smokescreen. The President had the 2000s and 2010s to fix issues, but instead the plunge the economy anyway. He just need an excuse for a bailout.

Last time it was Universal Primary Education, a empty campaign promise and now there are plenty of dilapidated schools. They played and tried to focus on it, but gave it up along the way. Because, doing this properly would actually cost time and effort. The President and his big convoy would actually have invested more, than they wanted too. More promising spending on proxy-wars, than on proper education for everyone.

So, knowing that the Multi-National Organizations, Bretton-Woods Organizations and donors gave way to the Uganda in between the late 1990s and early 2000s. They offered billions in various of schemes, not only HPIC and Poverty Eradication Action Plan (PEAP). This has been done already and still the state is bound by loans and grants to function its government. Therefore, the bullet of debt relief has been wasted.

The amount of US Dollars spent on the debt relief earlier in the reign of Museveni. The Head of State has misused this in the past. Not like he will change now. He has used the system to pimp his budgets and his wealth. His enriched himself and his cronies. While the Republic is still poor and the revenue isn’t growing like the economic recovery of the 1990s said it should have done. If the cure of the past would have worked, than the need for debt relief now would be unnecessary.

In 2020, the Republic shouldn’t get debt relief. It will be only spoils for the elites and the cronies around the President. It will be used buying tear-gas and SUVs. The WaBenzi will eat the spoils and only give away beans to the ones in need.

That Museveni says the continent needs debt relief. He means that himself needs it now. Even if his a wealthy guy in an impoverished republic. A republic he has run for three decades. Which already got special treatment and had a controlled Consultative Group. So, its not like this man hasn’t pimped the system already. He has tricked it and promised to juice up vehicle, but instead continue to run it to the ground. Hoping he could trick some new leaders to do the same mistake. Trusting him and his “high above” leadership.

They already spent millions of dollars to cut of the debt of the Republic under his control. The leadership is the same and they will misuse this if they get it again. When he had the opportunity to use it the last time. He instead wasted it and has ensured the state is more addicted to loans. That is why he hopes someone else can bail him out. While his paying ghosts, fake tenders and whatnot.

So, the IMF and World Bank should know this, but they are maybe more afraid of their image, than the result of letting go of some funds. These funds will not help anyone directly out. Only ensure the President longer life in office. This will not help the ones in need. Than he would have already ensured that. Instead his continuing this ballad and serenading the international community. While he hopes that no one knows history.

He has failed the last debt-relief and misused his chance. That is why his continued to grow the debt, addicted to grants and not created a space for more development. Unless, they give the President some handshakes at the State House. This is the way it goes.

The President of the Republic has had all the time since 1986 and we are still here. There are still opposition Members of Parliament who are tortured, there are still lack of free space and militarization of politics. That has never changed, but he hopes nobody notice. That is why he hopes he can pimp the International Community another time. He already did the trick and hope he can get them buzzed by a few buzzwords.

I know for some this is a moment of nostalgia, but for some its deja vu’. We have been here before and we shouldn’t need to repeat the same bad tune, again and again. However, I expect nobody to listen to me. Peace.

Parliament of Uganda – Report of the Committee on the National Economy on the Proposal by Government to Borrow EUR 42,9M from the AFD to finance the rural electrification grid extensions projects..(May 2015)