Gen. Muntu: I thought you left for a ‘Third Force’ last November, but you waited another 10 months!

I was wrong, I thought Gen. Mugisha Muntu was ready to move and start on his own, as he lost to Patrick Oboi Amuriat in the Presidential Election of 2017 in the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC). Muntu has since then, been working on his on, as he has done his parts and been together with the party, but not in official fashion. Now, today it got leaked early, but stated later through an official statement, that Muntu was leaving the party he was establishing 2004.

I was thinking he wanted to leave earlier, when he wrote this in November last year: “I want to operate in an environment where I feel I am trusted by those that I am working with. So colleagues, I don’t want to be unfair to you nor do I want to say that you are being unfair to me. Therefore, at a personal level, there are decisions I will have to make in the coming days and weeks. I ask for your patience and prayers. We need to bear with each other even as we ponder on the decision that we will have to make. We do our part as human beings and the rest we leave it to God” (Mugisha Muntu, 25.11.2017).

That is why I expected him earlier, as he didn’t trust the FDC anymore and not the ones leading, as he wasn’t one in charge. His fraction of the FDC wasn’t moving the masses or the delegates of the party, as they decided someone else than Muntu. This shows, as long as he rose to prominence in the party and had relevance, he would stay, but when the steering of the ship needed another turn. He feels the needs to bail and led something on his own.

That is why I take s small piece from his statement upon leaving the FDC:

It is no secret that there have been calls from the population for new political actors. In the aftermath of our party presidential elections, there was talk of formation of a ‘Third Force’. There was also anecdotal evidence of a need for this; the number of independent MPs and leaders has been steadily growing, several people even within the ruling party have been dissatisfied with their party but not convinced enough to join ours and there is a huge number of youth, especially among the working class, that is critical of government but sceptical of the opposition as well. These are facts that every political actor must seek to understand. Nature abhors a vacuum. When we started FDC, there were already established parties. Yet the reality was, none of them was fulfilling the political desires of the people at the time. Indeed, within a few months of our formation, we had membership that far surpassed that of all other established opposition parties” (Gen Muntu: Why We are Quitting FDC, 25.09.2018).

Therefore, today isn’t a shock, I was expecting it to be happening much sooner, I was wrong on that, but my expectation of press conference at Hotel Africana in November 2017. I anticipated so much more, as the fallout of losing would add pressure. As his place and position in the party was eradicated and no special VIP place was made for him. He was a moving car without any place to park.

Now, that the car has officially crashed and he is telling more what he is up to tomorrow. This is far from the end of the FDC. Even if the rumored part of “independent” MPs, as it was indicated of a Fang Fang meeting in August 2018, where 29 FDC MPs was planning a rebellion and stopping paying their monthly contribution to the party. If these are the “we”, Muntu have been talking about all day. It would make sense, as there are moderates and compliance MPs, who has had no trouble with a soft approach to steering the conversation and also the change of leadership from the NRM. Instead of going heads-on with defiance and civil disobedience towards the state. That is why, most likely, the ones in favor of the Shadow Government. Are the ones following Muntu.

However, that will be revealed at a later junction. We who had a hunch in November 2017, was right. It though it would happen much quicker, but it was a slow force, a ‘third force’. In this manner, there shouldn’t be a worry for the FDC. The FDC has an administration and protocols, as well as established party. They should be function without Muntu and his fraction. Just like they have done with other major political operatives leaving the party. They have seen this with others and continued their agenda. So the FDC should just continue. Whatever or whoever that follow Muntu on ‘Third Force’, as him and his allies will find their way. Certainly, he intend to led and reign in that, as he cannot be controlled or be a second fiddle there.

Muntu has proven that, he will do his thing, by any means. Muntu couldn’t manage to find a new way or even seek other positions within the FDC. If he as such a Party Builder, why wouldn’t he like to see the spoils? Now he plans to start a ‘Third Force’ and bring with him the possible moderates?

We have to see the 27th September 2018 Press Conference, whatever he brings to the table as he jumps ship. We just have to await that one, but he is not FDC anymore, which has been his home since 2004. He was there for 14 years, working and building, but when they didn’t give him confidence. Muntu decided to leave, instead of waiting for a new role. Peace.

FDC Statement wishing a farewell to Gen. Mugisha Muntu (25.09.2018)

Gen. Mugisha Muntu Statement: That he leaves the FDC with immediate efffect (25.09.2018)

Official release:

Gen. Mugisha Muntu statement (09.08.2018)

Opinion: Are we seeing an original FDC split? – Into two Parliamentary Groups?

Just as things merger for a political outcome, things can also dismantle for the same reason. That is maybe something we are seeing these days, as the new leadership inside the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) is splitting the party, as the hardliners and the ones who are more favorable working with the National Resistance Movement (NRM) are separating. There been two fractions, the ones who stood by Gen. Mugisha Muntu and the ones who are now behind newly elected Patrick Oboi Amuriat. Therefore, this fraction has appeared ever since the last election of the FDC Party President.

Now that POA has taken his first major leadership move inside the party, there seemingly quick to address and show their allegiance. They are not working with the party, but already showing their attitude and lack of serving their party, even their constituents, as they are more into their committee roles and perks. Than actually thinking, that these are allocated by their respective parties and not because of entitlement.

Reported meeting at Fang Fang:

The fired Leader of Opposition, Winnie Kiiza and 28 other Members of Parliament on the Forum for Democratic Change ticket are said to have resolved to form a separate entity at Parliament. Sources are telling us the MPs, who sat at Fang Fang Hotel Kampala for up to 6 hours last night, decided to cautiously detach from FDC leadership in Najjankumbi, mobilize other opposition parties and leaning independent colleagues to establish a significant numerical opposition power house targeting over 70 members” (…) ““We have decided to come up with a separate entity in the house for all opposition members and independent leaning MPs,” one of the sources who attended the meeting told us. ChimpReports has learnt that, the 29 FDC MPs will immediately withdraw the Shs 500,000 monthly contributions to the party” (Dickens H. Okello – ‘Winnie Kiiza and Team to End FDC Ties, Form Parallel Group’ 08.08.2018 link: https://chimpreports.com/winnie-kiiza-and-team-to-end-fdc-ties-form-parallel-group/).

Extract from Statement by Winne Kiiza:

Allow me to thank the FDC party under the leadership of, Gen. (Rtd) Gregory Mugisha MUNTU for the opportunity they gave me to serve my country. It is one I will never regret. It is some opportunity that saw us move strides together for a common and a better tomorrow. I would like in a special way to thank my colleagues from all opposition parties in the 10th Parliament. Equally, those in the NRM who stood with me and supported the voice of reason when the situation demanded” (Winnie Kiiza, 08.08.2018).

What I am thinking when reading this are we going back in time before the 2006 elections, when the FDC hadn’t been established and was negotiations between two parliamentary groups named Reform Agenda (RA) and Parliamentary Advocacy Forum (PAFO), even some of the gentlemen who was apart of these units are in the midst of these movements today. This is Gen. Mugisha Muntu, Reagan Okumu, Odonga Otto and so on. These people are still in the mix and playing this out.

Are these now playing their cards to answer back to Besigye or are they trying to figure out a new way. Because the old merger didn’t play out as they wanted? Now that their fraction are now loosing and their loyalty to Muntu is making them looking weak inside the FDC. As the POA is putting his stamp on the organization.

Since, there is sources of an informal FDC spilt within the Parliament, are the PAFO sort of organization opening and becoming a new party for the 2021. That will be official in 2020. If so, than we might see Muntu running it, even if he screams: “Country before Self” every time he can. Surely, he does not like being in the shadow of Besigye and POA. Who like being pushed to the side, when you have worked for a long time as a Party President.

However, this is just speculations, I expected when POA won the Presidency, that Gen. Muntu would start on his own. Now, that his allegiance of people are starting their own parallel parliament group. This is the marsh towards 2021 elections. Clearly, this could be the next move for him to join these 27 MPs and try to get another position as he is a fringe candidate within the FDC. As these people are already stopping to associate themselves with the party.

That is why we are seeing another Reform Agenda Versus Parliamentary Advocacy Forum in the 10th Parliament. The FDC is established, but with the loss of 27 MPs, these are really showing the force right now. But if the voters will be so forgiving, that is another scenario. Time will tell and if these people still have suction at all or if they will fall back, as there is always some who goes back in the needs of campaign. To get the needed support and machine behind them.

This is not a positive move, it is only doing justice to the wish of Museveni. Who wished to destroy the opposition after the 2016 General Election. Just as he has skirmished in the Democratic Party (DP) and Uganda People’s Congress (UPC), he can continue to purge the opposition with the Parallel FDC Parliament Group, who he surely can drop envelopes to secure the needed votes in the Parliament.

Let see how this goes or if the rebellion will even become something of power or if they are falling flat with time. Nevertheless, this is a victory for Museveni. As he has possibly put the FDC in pre-2006 state, where it was two fractions.

Therefore we have FDC and FDC Parallel, which is two different entities. Clearly, to make sure the party are weaken. Because by the election of 2016, the party had 36 MPs. This means if all of the 26 MPs are leaving 10 MPs, but there was 10 Independent at that time, so if it is 10 independent plus 16 MPs. Means that there are left 20 MPs who are loyal to the case. It is still a big defeat, but shows the marginalization of the FDC in parliament. The numbers have changed with by-elections, so there would be a few more FDC MPs, but the damage is still severe.

Now, its just have to play out. Peace.

FDC Youth Forum reacts to the TDA approval of Amama Mbabazi and want Dr. Kizza Besigye out of the coalition

AmamaNTV

The saga continues. The race between the Amama Mbabazi new position in the TDA has set things on fire. The same is with the FDC and FDC Youth Forum whom has rights to question the position of their flag-bearer which they wish to have as the leader of the opposition and not the fallen out of grace from the NRM which the other guy has.

Pretext:

“The group of FDC youth have raided storm Royal Suites Bugolobi, the venue for the TDA summit meeting demanding for their party’s withdraw from the opposition alliance” (Odongo, 2015). “The youth who were armed with placards demanded that Besigye leaves the summit and announces that FDC has quit the Alliance. Despite hesitating, Besigye came out of the meeting to address the rowdy youths. He advised them to go to the party headquarters in Najjanakumbi where he would address” (…)”The Youth were lead by MPs Odongo Otto, Geoffrey Ekanya and Jack Sabiiti who some days ago petitioned that FDC withdraws from the Alliance” (Waiswa, 2015). “The National Candidates Selection Committee of the Opposition coalition, The Democratic Alliance, recommended Mbabazi as the most favorable to joint presidential candidate. Not long ago Mbabazi as prime minister was being faulted by the opposition for stifling democracy in the country” (Waiswa, 2015).

Dr. Kizza Besigye 170915

This is what really went down:

“Dr Kizza Besigye, the FDC flag-bearer in the 2016 presidential elections has called for restraint and calmness after a group of radical party youth dragged him from a meeting of The Democratic Alliance on Thursday” (…)”The youth warned that FDC would not accept TDA’s endorsement of Amama Mbabazi as the alliance’s flag-bearer in the 2016 election, as alleged in the media” (…)”The youth claimed that while they did not have anything personal with Mbabazi, his alleged “involvement in the suppression of our struggle are still fresh in our minds, he is responsible for our continued suffering” (Aine, 2015).

Dr Kizza Besigye said this: “Our people are concerned by this alleged unfairness” (…)”They are saying the process is unfair. The people are right, it must be questioned. The process must fair” (…)”NEC must sit and discuss concerns of unfairness. People are confused that how can a coalition of opposition support Hon Mbabazi who is an NRM member” (Aine, 2015).

Afterthought:

Well, with the recent actions from the FDC Youth Forum proves that the issue of whom is running for the flag-bearer post in the TDA. That will also create issues between the parties in the alliance and coalition. The frictions that it takes when a independent man that was the former menace to society is now the front-runner of the opposition. Now he is the man to run for office after being split from the mothership or the party he was a poster-child in.

Dr. Kizza Besigye was the same for the NRM, but went out earlier and was involved also from the Bush to the rewrite of the constitution so that President Museveni could sit until indefinite and not leave the office. So after that Dr. Kizza Besigye has lost elections in 2006, 2011. Who even made the issues with the government over the famous ‘Walk to Work’ riots!

That’s why the FDC Youth Forum reacts when the opposition candidate to fight the NRM sole candidate who has been there since 1986, which everybody already knows. The issue that is concerning is the reaction, not from the Youth Forum since they already has addressed their plea. It’s the reaction from FDC flag-bearer Dr. Kizza Besigye who is the people’s president. That has addressed the matter and how it changes the power struggle in the coalition of the TDA. But it’s frightening if this is the way that Dr. Besigye is now addressing the procedures of NEC in the TDA. If this is now really weakening the coalition then it will hard to go back, that the issue becomes a struggle between Amama Mbabazi and Dr. Kizza Besigye, instead of a unity going to show strength towards NRM regime. They need to stay strong against it, if not the fractions and frictions will always be in a coalition, but the way it’s turning isn’t making a solid effort to achieve the changes in electoral reform and also making sure of giving an honest fight against the NRM party. If they go back to scratch then the time was a wasting in a unity that didn’t leave a trace in the 2016 race other than failure. That Dr. Besigye or any of the other opposition party leader want to see happening. Peace.

Reference:

Aine, Kim – ‘Besigye Calls Crisis FDC NEC Meeting as Youth Denounce Mbabazi’ (17.09.2015) link: http://chimpreports.com/besigye-calls-crisis-fdc-nec-meeting-as-youth-denounce-mbabazi/

Odongo, Otto – ‘Otto, FDC youth stir chaos at TDA meet’ (17.09.2015) link: http://www.theinsider.ug/otto-fdc-youth-stir-chaos-at-tda-meet/

Waiswa, Baz – ‘Youth Storm TDA Summit, Force Besigye To Withdrawal From Alliance’ (17.09.2015) link: http://news.ugo.co.ug/youth-storm-tda-summit-force-besigye-to-withdrawal-from-alliance/