Opinion: The Foreign Diplomatic Missions Kenya disappoints in their statement today!

I will not bring the whole detailed statement, the ones that cares should read it. If not its not a loss. The Foreign Missions in Kenya have now put stamp before the 26th October, as the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC). This sort of statement could have been cooked in Atlanta or at the Carter Centre. Since it sounds like John Kerry during and after the August 8th 2017. They want it to just go-on and not stop it. The IEBC just supposed to go-on without question. Just take a look this!

For this to happen, the IEBC must act decisively and everyone needs to respect its independence. Leaders on both sides must be reasonable in their demands of the IEBC and in their actions leading up to, and following, the new election. It would be impossible to remake the IEBC in a way that satisfies all political demands, and everyone should refrain from undermining it. All should give the IEBC space, time, and respect. Do not paralyze the IEBC. It is the only institution Kenya has to run the election and ensure Kenyans can choose their president. This is an opportunity for both sides to demonstrate leadership, strengthen Kenya’s democracy, and build the country’s international prestige. Unfortunately, the opposite appears to be happening. The draft “Election Laws Amendment Bill,” for example, puts at risk the IEBC’s ability to conduct a better election within the mandated 60-day timeline, and unnecessarily increases political tensions. Kenyans can debate whether or not electoral changes are warranted, but the timing is a serious problem. Wise reforms to an established electoral process take time. They require thoughtful reflection and broad agreement from all parties. Well-established international best practice is to avoid changes to electoral rules just prior to an election. In the same vein, the growing list of political demands, inflammatory rhetoric, and boycott threats undermine the IEBC’s ability to carry out its constitutionally-mandated job to hold a new election. For example, if IEBC personnel are to be removed, it should only be done by the appropriate authorities and be consistent with the law and relevant regulations” (US Embassy, 02.10.2017).

I only agree with the Foreign Missions on one of these statements that they did together. That is the change of law, while its coming a new election. The newly announced election should be postponed if the laws are amended. Since the IEBC cannot comply to sudden changes, as they we’re not ready to work consistently with the legal provisions for the election in August 2017. Therefore, now the IEBC doesn’t changes of laws to change their ways.

The reform of the IEBC needs to happen, that without an election. The current IEBC are trying to do the same with the same partners and agreements done in secret. Certainly, this is not just a problem for the National Super Alliance (NASA), it should be a problem for all Kenyans. Since the trust of the IEBC should be all time low. They are trying to pull it off again without any significant changes. When they announced the Jubilee and Kenyatta, when they couldn’t prove the ballot or the tally. This should worry anyone.

Still, the American, Europeans and all the Foreign Diplomatic Missions has no issues with this. They just want the Kenyans to elect a rigged in leader. Because no-one should touch or try to fix the rigging machine of the IEBC. The NASA is not trying to undermine to the IEBC, they are trying to reform it. So it can authenticate the votes and ballots, not just announce whatever that fits on party or coalition. It is a serious problem that the IEBC can issue a new election without doing prior changes or proving their capabilities of an honest, free and fair elections.

If they just go now for a new election without changing, without trying to fix the IEBC. Than, the possible rigging might happen again, as the leadership are connected to Jubilee. Ezra Chiloba has clearly learned the tricks from Ahmed Hassan Isaac, who did his tricks to earn on Chickengate and do bad tenders for the state organization. Most likely he has learned a lot from his former boss.

Therefore, it is disappointing, the statement of the foreign missions in Kenya today. That they are defending the IEBC and say “just continue like nothing” this is “strength of the Kenyan democracy”. Are you kidding me? Maybe someone should rig your local elections? Maybe someone should try to steal your vote? Would they accept if someone took their future away? Because its convenient.

The NASA has to make sure changes happen with the IEBC, so that the elections are credible. Why holding elections this 26th October if the organization running it most likely rig for Kenyatta and Jubilee? Why do I believe that, since the Jubilee wants to fix the laws and the Supreme Court, but are defending the organization who said Kenyatta won earlier this year in August. This with results that couldn’t be verified.

So if the Missions cared about the coming elections. They wouldn’t defend the IEBC like Jubilee. They would actually want a free and fair elections. Instead they are acting like Jubilee-Soft and trying to make it happen without any fuzz and hope that all parties are all smiles. Even if they are rigging into oblivion. Peace.

Reference:

Statement by Ambassadors and High Commissioners to Kenya – In Advance of the New Presidential Election (02.10.2017) link: https://ke.usembassy.gov/statement-ambassadors-high-commissioners-kenya-advance-new-presidential-election/

International Commission of Jurists – Kenyan Section: “Open letter to the Judiciary of the Republic of Kenya” (01.10.2017)

AON Kenya: “RE: NPS/KSNational Police Service/Kenya Prisons Service (NPS/KPS) – Termination of Scheme” (28.09.2017)

Joint Statement by the Kenya Film Classification Board and the Media Council of Kenya on Commentators Spreading Hate Speech through the Media issued on 1st October, 2017 (01.10.2017)

Opinion: Burundian government support of Mayi-Mayi in Kivu Provnices; is it a ploy to keep Kabila in Power?

The instability in the Democratic Republic of Congo has been used by the other states in the Great Lakes Region. This has been done in the past by both Rwandan and Ugandan forces, even South Sudanese rebels has been on DRC territory at some point. Therefore, its a massive change that the Burundian support of rebels. Seems like it been used as propaganda tool by the Bujumbura government. That President Pierre Nkurunziza is using his CNDD-FDD youth militia the Imbonerakure, to create havoc at the neighbor country in collaboration with the Mai-Mai Yakutumba.

There is even an agreement flooding online between Mayi-Mayi Jejero Pelican and representative of the Burundian government Eltienne Ntakuratimana, who wrote an agreement on the 8th February 2017, where the Burundian counterparts would supply guns, ammunition and radios to the Mayi-Mayi group in response of taking out the Rwandan counterparts in the region.

So first after giving a short insight to who the Mayi-Mayi militia is, I will give one report on the Burundian enterprise in the Democratic Republic of Congo, before showing my thoughts on the manner. Where the different rumors are combined with critical thinking on the actors in the conflict of the Kivu’s. Who earns and what purpose. Take a look!

A tale of who the Mayi-Mayi or Mai-Mai is explained nicely here:

This inter-community power conflict is shaped by and shapes antagonistic identities, which are firmly rooted in specific worldviews. In the case of the Mai Mai Yakutumba, this worldview is constructed around the idea of “autochthony”, or the concept of being a “Son of the Soil”, the “original” inhabitant of a certain zone. In this perspective, which is shared by almost all Mai-Mai groups in the DRC, the self-styled autochthonous groups are threatened by the Rwandophone communities (Hutu and Tutsi), who are seen as “foreigners” trying to take over their land and power. Betweeen 1996 and 2003, “autochthonous” and Tutsi (often Banyamulenge)-led groups clashed on numerous occasions in southern South Kivu, and there were several ethnically targeted massacres on both sides. The resulting mutual distrust and dislike continue to feed Mai Mai movements like the Yakutumba group, which serves to many Babembe as a psychological safeguard to avoid that the Banyamulenge will extend their power in Fizi and will come to dominate the Babembe” (…) “It is in part this function as a safeguard that makes Yakutumba fairly popular among the Babembe, although many do not approve of armed struggle and are tired of the war. What also contributes to Yakutumba’s popularity is that he is perceived to symbolize and embody what are seen as typical Bembe characteristics and values, such as resistance against domination and repression, not only from other ethnic groups, but also from the central government. This self-imagery is in part the product of a tradition of Bembe resistance dating back to the colonial era, the Mulele rebellion in the 1960s and the Fizi-based rebellion of Laurent-Désiré Kabila under the Mobutu regime. The Mai Mai Yakutumba place themselves explicitly in this tradition, which implies a strong animosity towards Kinshasa. They consider the regime of Kabila jr. to be complicit with the Rwandophones and their plan to ‘balkanize’ the DRC, backed by resource-hungry imperialist powers” (Verweijen, 2011).

This shows the plans and added support of the group from Burundi would serve their purpose, as well as give them strength to create havoc in the Kivu’s. Since they want power and be different than the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of Congo (FARDC), also different from FDLR and ADF. Who all have been militias contributing to violence and weakening the control of these eastern states of the Republic. As well, being proof of the lacking control that the Central Government from Kinshasa has in the region. With all the eyes that we’re on M23 who has had armed insurgency and also tried to gain control of the area. It’s wouldn’t be the first try someone who has supported a group like Mayi-Mayi/Mai-Mai has done it in the Kivu’s, to show Kabila and his government, that they want to be a force to be recon with.

Very few smart commentators aside. However, Gibert-Bécaud Njangwa, president of the association ONELOPE-Burundi (mobility) finds that the capture of Uvira by Yakutumba would destabilize peace and security in Bujumbura. He is not talking about a threat from some Burundian rebel group. But he suspects that behind Yakutumba is the invisible hand of the West: “It is very likely that Burundi is attacked by mercenaries from Congo Kinshasa so that the West can destabilize peace and security in the subregion. The Government of Burundi must be vigilant, if not the plan of destabilization is well conceived, planned, it can be executed from one moment to another” (…) “Another reading by the former communication commissioner of the Burundian opposition platform CNARED: “Uncontradicted evidence shows that Mai-Mai Yakutumba are working with Burundian intelligence, Imbonerakure militia in DRC, Interahamwe militiamen who are also allies of the Burundian regime. We have evidence that Mai-Mai Yakutumba are supplied with weapons from Bujumbura, we also know that elements of the regime are fighting alongside them. “(Ngendakumana, 2017).

If all of this isn’t bad enough, there are speculations that National pour le Renouveau et la Democratie (CNRD-Ubwiyunge) and Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), who is Rwandan counterparts in the same region. CNRD-Ubwiyunge have been an armed militia who has tried to gain control. While the FDLR has been more trying to recoup strength to go back and take their motherland back again from the Rwandan Patriotic Front(RPF). Therefore, the troubles of the region, also transpires in the Kivu States. So, the problems and the power-struggle of Burundi is now reaching the mineral rich Kivu’s and Uvira.

There reports that both CNRD and FDLR has been fighting together with Mayi-Mayi this month and in the battles for Uvira this week. If that is likely or true, than it wouldn’t fit the pattern and the history of the Mayi-Mayi, but they are accepting foreign support from Burundi, so if they would use help of Rwandan supported groups. It would be more powerful and even stronger, in the region where the FARDC and MONUSCO is lacking manpower and resources. If they had enough and if they could, they would have been able to banish these groups long time ago, but the Kabila government is keeping them. Just like he is accepting insurgency from Kisoro, Uganda into Southern Kivu, since its from the friends that brought him into power.

There is even further conspiracy that Pierre Nkurunziza is working together with Joseph Kabila to make instability and insurgency, so that there is no need for another election and end of his term. Secondly, the support and the instability is made to make sure the FARDC could get support from French Government, which they can use to invade and control the Rwandan Government. That is only plausible, if the French wants to challenge Paul Kagame, since he has distanced himself from Paris during recent years. Thirdly, the Burundian government would use their relationship with Kabila and Paris to gain proper capital to their struggling economy. So the trade of arms to militias in Kivu Provinces, would enrich the weak Bujumbura government.

Sidebar: We can just wonder if even Emmanuel Macron would care about these places, since he is more into make-up, then international politics, just remember his ignorance towards the African continent earlier this year. Therefore, parts of me doubt it, but French involvement in regime change on the continent isn’t new, but would a risky project for the newly elected French President to pull-off. Even more seasoned leaders has struggled with doing so.

Sidebar II: It is more reasonable to use this insurgency to enforce the need for Kabila, just as the running battles in Kasai-Orientale, which has killed dozens and made massive amounts of mass-graves. So that his leadership could again regain peace, but this is different. Just like the sudden movement of M23 from camps in Kisoro in 2016 and early 2017, that just fitted the paradigm of using militias as pawns. The innocent lives in the Kivu Provinces to let Kabila government rule a little longer. The same could be possible yet again. This time instead of having either Rwandan or Ugandan supported militias, it would be the cash-strapped Burundian government, who would need the financial support and the trade with the groups. Clearly, it makes it more plausible, as the net of well-wishers are dwindling for Bujumbura as well.

We just have to wait and see, what is fact and what is fiction. What we do know is that that Bukavu and Uvira has seen violence and insurgency this last few days. That the DRC/RDC has seen militias growing in strength and if foreign states are interfering in the Kivu’s. Peace.

Reference:

Ngendakumana, Phillipe – ‘Et si les Maï-Maï Yakutumba prenaient Uvira, la ville de Bujumbura serait-elle menacée?’ (30.09.2017) link: http://www.ikiriho.org/2017/09/30/burundi-rdc-mai-mai-yakutumba-prenaient-uvira-la-ville-de-bujumbura-serait-elle-menacee-monusco/

Verweijen, Judith – ‘Guest Blog: Profile of Mai-Mai Yakutumba’ (01.08.2011) link: http://congosiasa.blogspot.no/2011/08/guest-blog-profile-of-mai-mai-yakutumba.html

NASA Statement: “NASA Objects to Outrageous Tender Award to OT-Morpho” (30.09.2017)

Apollo Mboya letter to Judicial Service Commission: “Re: Petition for Compounded Misconducted Against Hon. Njoki Susanna Ndung’u” (29.09.2017)

Opinion: Why is Kenyatta afraid of free and fair elections? Well, because at this point he couldn’t win one!

I know, I know, sometimes I am late to the party, sometimes I scan through things, but in the recent days and with the news unfolding in the background of the constitutional crisis Uganda. Most things has shadowed that. But with a little consideration, I had a revelation. A starch one for me, I might be late and forgive me, but at this point, the incumbent President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto cannot win in a free and fair election.

It makes perfect sense, it really make sense of how it’s been since the Supreme Court ruling and the nullification. The nullification came on the matter of computer algorithms that couldn’t be proven or had any basis on the possible transmitted results from the polling stations. The tally came from nowhere and the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) announced Kenyatta the winner. Though the Court Justices at the Supreme Court saw it as a mischief and electoral malpractice that wasn’t following the codes and procedures in the law and in the Constitution.

So here we are today with a build-up to a second round of elections. National Super Alliance (NASA), Key Opponent Raila Odinga and Deputy Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka are gearing up their demonstrations and wanting to reform the IEBC. This is happening while the incumbent trying to rally again and as much as possible on short time. Just like he did in the days ahead of 8th August 2017. This has alle been seen before, but more dire this time. NASA is using their time making sure the provisions of the laws is hold and that the IEBC are up to standard, which they we’re far from during the previous election.

So we can know something by just these acts, as well as all the spreading of hatred towards the Supreme Court from the Jubilee Leadership, while they have worked to defend IEBC and it’s leaders. This is what is striking, one institution are wrong for stopping the incumbent a second term, the other institution cheated them from it, but is still valid to do it again without any concern of reforming it. It shows that the Jubilee doesn’t care how they win and if it takes rigging. They don’t mind the rigging at all. It serves the purpose, they stay in power by any means.

Kenyatta cannot win without rigging. Without some sort of foul play, without use of state funds and civil servants, cabinet secretaries and all sort of digital manipulation to get the results in his favor. It seems so obvious. Since he has used his time in office to enrich his cronies and his people. That is why the Jubilee government had in its time more than plenty of grand corruption cases and misuse of state reserves, which shouldn’t be accepted anywhere.

Still, even with this track-record and lack of keeping up with prior promises. Kenyatta still believes he is the righteous one, that all Kenyans will naturally back. Like he is perfect leader and the one who can control the ship. Clearly, the PR gigs and memos make it golden, but when you start to look. The picture is distorted and the evidence of work is often lacking. Its sprinkled quick work with a heavy bill, without any consideration of the tenders or the users. That is why the Hospital Containers or whatever they we’re meant to be. Is still on the stockpile and not out in the districts and counties.

That is the old news, but the new news, that has been steady all through September 2017 is the lack of understanding, lack of tact and also grasp of why the Jubilee lost in the Supreme Court. It was the IEBC who lost the case and had to restart a new election. Still, they have kept the same heads and changed a few, but not to make it trustworthy. As long as the IEBC Secretariat is of the same people, they might try to pull of the same trick as before. Even as the suppliers like OT-Morpho, Safaricom and others has proven to partial. Also, Jubilee internal memos proves they are defending Ezra Chiloba and Wafula Chebukati. All of this is happening as the IEBC has taken their dirty laundry to the press. Still, even as this has happen, the Jubilee has not attacked or cared for changing it. They have kept cool and told their staff and government employees that they are suspended for traveling abroad.

The Jubilee and Kenyatta, seems to not get what that happen. He doesn’t bring hope, neither trust. Since with his non-acts towards the IEBC and the revelation of Tuju defending the IEBC. We can know that the Jubilee knows they earn on keeping the IEBC as today. They are fearing if they turned Independent in more than just the name.

Well, since it is like that, we can know that Kenyatta cannot win in fair election at this point. That is why he is not bothered with reforming or changing the IEBC. He knows that if they do as they do. He will become the President again, even if it is against the will of the people. This proves that he see no reason to risk his loss and possible end of Presidency. Kenyatta deem that unacceptable and therefore pursuit another way. Even if it means this time actually respecting all districts and making it seem like the voters are important to him. They weren’t that before the August 2017. Because he knew he would win it, just as he thought the case before the Supreme Court was stellar and could post elephants on twitter the before while waiting on the Court Ruling. Something that really insulted him and he felt betrayed by them.

Kenyatta knew that IEBC would rig for him and would serve his purpose, we don’t know to what extent or how close the Chiloba and Chebukati is to the Jubilee leadership. Clearly, close enough that the Jubilee Secretariat are defending them. We just have to wait, but we can now from the recent month, that the Kenyatta presidency cannot have enough votes or support to actually win. If he did and if he had faith in the IEBC. He would have the state of mind to reform it and wait for another announced election after the new staff and provisions, that again could given all stakeholders trust in the Electoral Commission. Instead, the trust of IEBC is lackluster, the same should be of Jubilee. Only thing trustworthy is the Supreme Court and Odinga. Since NASA has been the truth considering the problematic electoral malpractice that was done in August.

Kenyatta cannot win in a free and fair election. Deep inside him, he accepts it, but he will not say, because that is slap in his face. Peace.

Kura Yangu Sauti Yangu Press Statement on Irreducible Minimums (29.09.2017)

NASA Letter to Nairobi Police Commander Koome – “Ref: Notification of a Peaceful Demonstration to IEBC Headquarters on Monday 2nd October 2017 and Friday 6th October 2017” (29.09.2017)