Opinion: Kenyatta says to the Opposition – You can wait with dialogue until 2022!

We are today seeing the real vision of the Jubilee Party and the two center pieces of the administration. This being President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto. At a speech done in Muranga, today the 9th December 2017. Just as his second official term as President is starting, after a pro-longed and hectic election period. Which has its consequence of a stand-off between Jubilee and the National Super Alliance with Raila Odinga. Clearly, this stand-off his hurting the pride of the President. Since he has gone back to not wishing to politic, but still tell how NASA is supposed to operate in the new environment. It is impressive, that he spells out that the successor is Ruto. No-one is surprised by that, its been in the cards unless Gideon Moi is surfacing like phoenix from the ashes. But for now, that will not happen.

That the President, the incumbent are so in dire needs to show his power over the opposition. Which entails, them being in the fringes and hope to talk in 2022. Like the Jubilee own the country, even after a giant shambolic and botched elections in October 2017. It is amazing how glaceed over that is and how blatant disregard of the other narrative is at play. That Jubilee shows their arrogance and their bitterness to NASA is evident. Since, they are still putting all the terms and all control. While expecting the NASA just to fold their hands and wait to see if their getting any breadcrumbs left on the plate by the President. By the way, with the little people showing up to the second presidential elections, proves that Kenyatta, really doesn’t have the people on his side. Maybe, the courts allowed the second one, because of lack of merit of the cases. Still, that doesn’t change the fact that Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) did a terrible job concealing their rigging for Kenyatta.

Here is what he himself has added to the world:

The President said Kenyans are waiting for development and are not interested in endless political talks. In a remark pointed at the leadership of the opposition which has been calling for dialogue with the Government, the President said the dialogue he is ready for is talk on how to develop Kenya and bring progress for Kenyans. He called on the opposition leaders to realise that the next phase of politics will be in 2022 when the country will go for another general election. He said they (opposition leaders) should wait for the next campaign season for any other type of dialogue and during that time the leader they will negotiate with will be Deputy President William Ruto. “The dialogue we are interested in now is the dialogue that transforms lives and brings development. On the other one of talking politics wait for 2022 and you will dialogue with William,” said the President” (Kenyatta, 2017).

It is hard to transform lives and bring development, when your trying to create it in a vacuum of dishonesty and ignorance. There is lack of trust between the legal government and popular uprising within the opposition. That is why President Kenyatta wants to silence the efforts done by NASA and their leadership. Even detain and arbitrary arrest them, when he sees fit. This phase will be hectic and be troublesome for the Jubilee. The NASA leadership will not accept the discontent and the aggressive use of security forces against them. That is why the Jubilee should be worried. Since they are creating are more hostile environment, because they are using the state sanctioned violence against their own citizens.

Kenyatta, might say he don’t want political talks, but he is the one needing it the most. He is most vulnerable. Kenyatta has everything to loose, the same has Ruto. They might not say it, but that is the truth. They have built it on a house of cards and it just needs a small movement, before the whole falls apart.

So when he wants to discuss development, it should be with concern he does so. Since he haven’t delivered in his first term. Most likely not in his second. Since the aggressive oppressive behavior will not put the case of rigging or illegitimate government to rest. It will just pro-long the exercise and create more wounds between both parties. Kenyatta knows all of this, since he has been himself in opposition, but the power has corrupted him.

I am not surprised that Kenyatta says these thing and suggest it. He wants to shield himself, but shoots himself in the foot. However, don’t get confused. It is all big talk from the big man, but he knows he is vulnerable too. If not, he wouldn’t put it this way and make the opposition looks like they need to talk to him. It is the other way around. Since his republic is in trouble. Internal trouble and with a stalemate, because of his actions and his sponsored activity, through his party and his infested acts within state organizations.

Kenyatta, if your playing smart. You are not playing like this. Your throwing matches into a barrel of gasoline. That will start a fire and fires are hard to control. Right now are the NASA starting their shadow government and their People’s Assemblies. As this movement is rising combined with boycotts. Will hurt the legitimacy and even show the lack of work done by the central government made by the Jubilee itself.

Kenyatta is not winning on doing it like this, but not that he cares. He could say during campaigns that in some counties, that he didn’t need their votes. Therefore, he don’t need the citizens, they are just props in his life. He needs to speak about development and development projects to secure donor funding for government projects. That is why he don’t need insecurity and becoming even more fragile, since that will hurt the cases for getting donor grants and prospects of foreign support. Peace.

Reference:

Kenyatta, Uhuru – ‘The season of politics is over, let us talk development, President Kenyatta says’ (09.12.2017)

The Allied Defense Force (ADF) back in the spotlight after an attack on FARDC and MONUSCO yesterday!

The Ugandan based militia, which has two groups ADF-NALU and ADF, one led by the now detained Jamir Mukulu and the other one led by Seka Bukulu. The biggest group is the last one, which has about 1,000 militants, while Mukulu is about 30 people. That meaning since the reports on the attack, it wasn’t the ADF under Mukulu attacking MONUSCO yesterday, but the militant group under Bukulu, since there we’re 72 militants killed, while 15 Tanzanian Peacekeepers was killed, 5 FARDC soldier and 43 wounded as well. Therefore, the killings yesterday was substantial and the biggest attack on MONUSCO since 2010.

This attack happens while the governments of Uganda and Democratic Republic of Congo are having meeting in Mbarara, discussing provisions against insecurity and across the borders. The continuation of the Operation Sokola 1 that has been on since 2014. Still, the problem of ADF and others in the region are there.

For those of you who has no knowledge of ADF. I will give some information about who they are and amount. Just briefly. Before what happen yesterday and also in Mbarara. As the discussions between GoU and GoDRC. Which will entail certain changes at the end of the day. Since the ADF has its origin in the Rwenzori mountains, before becoming a vital part of militias in and around North-Kivu.

Allied Defense Force origin:

The Alliance of Democratic Forces (ADF) is made up of Ugandan opposition forces, supported by the Government of Sudan, which fought the Government of Uganda. According to the UN, most of its members are Islamists who want to establish Sharia law in Uganda” (…) “The ADF is led by a Muslim, Jamir Mukulu and operated in western Uganda. Historically it has used Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) territory for its bases. However, the ADF was initially severely crippled by the establishment of Laurent Kabila’s Government in the DRC in May 1997 and by its subsequent provision to the UPDF of access to rebel bases in the DRC” (…) “By March 2016 attacks on civilians in the Beni region of the Democratic Republic of the Congo had killed at least 550 people over 18 months. Congolese officials placed the blame on the Allied Democratic Forces, characterized as a Ugandan Islamist movement, but a report from the Congo Research Group says it may not be that simple. Jason Stearns, lead author of the report, agreed that the ADF was partly responsible but said the group was not working alone. “The first conclusion [is] that the ADF is not really what people make it out to be,” he said. “It’s not this foreign Islamist force; it’s a force that is much more rooted in local society. And the second conclusion is that it’s not just the ADF but also others who are involved in the massacres.” (Global Security, 2016).

ADF has a financial support network that includes local and international sources. In 2014, the Group documented that ADF received financing through international money transfers, the theft of Congolese army salaries and the delivery of funds to camps by recruits and ADF agents. The Group also received credible information that ADF derived funding from harvesting timber in its area of control” (UNSC, 2015).

ADF-NALU comprises some 800-1,400 combatants, without including the women and children in its ranks. Based in the northwestern Rwenzori Mountain region, along the border with Uganda, the militia is a “tightly controlled organization”, subsisting on illegal logging and gold mining as well as a “network of car and motorcycle taxis operating between Butembo, Beni and Oicha”, and “money transfers from London, Kenya and Uganda, which are collected through Congolese intermediaries in Beni and Butembo”, according to a UN Group of Experts report. Butembo, Beni and Oicha are in North Kivu Province” (IRIN, 2014).

In December:

Representatives from two countries will reflect on solutions to security issues between districts in South West Uganda and North Kivu Province. Among the Ugandan districts represented in these meetings, the same sources cite Rubirizi, Kisoro, Kanungu Rukingiri Bundibujo, Ntoroko and Kasese.

According to other security sources, for the past few days, there are already discussions and discussions between the FARDC and the Ugandan army to launch joint operations for the neutralization of Ugandan rebels of the ADF, active in the territory of Beni. In addition to members of the provincial government of North Kivu, some senior officers of the 34th military region, Operation Sokola 1 and the Congolese National Police represent the DRC at this bilateral meeting that will last four days” (Radio Okapi, 2017).

The Attack today:

The Congolese army (FARDC) claims to have killed 72 Ugandan rebels of the ADF during an attack on a MONUSCO peacekeepers’ base on Thursday, 7 December 2017 in Semuliki in the Beni territory (North Kivu). Contrary to Monusco’s assessment of five Congolese soldiers killed in the attack, Operation Sokola 1 North’s spokesman, Captain Mak Hazukay, speaks of a death in the ranks of the army. “This is the position of the Monusco that was attacked, we came in reinforcements (…) 72 ADF elements were killed and 1 soldier found death during the attack”, said to ACTUALITE.CD, Captain Mak Hazukay, spokesman for Operation Sokola 1 North in Beni” (Actualite.cd, 2017).

So after yesterdays attack, we can wonder if the Ugandan People’s Defense Force (UPDF) and FARDC will go after ADF. Like they have done with Lords Resistance Army (LRA) in Operation Lightning Thunder, the Garamba Offensive. It sent the LRA packing and got them to leave the territory of the DRC. But they were able to leave, so they are causing havoc instead in the Central African Republic.

We can wonder if they are planning something similar now with the ADF in the Kivu Provinces. To get rid of the 1,000 militants, who are robbing the FARDC and trading timber. Since Operation Sokola 1 haven’t been sufficient to target the ADF.

We can also wonder, since the Mbarara Sessions occurred at about the same time. It was just as it needs funds for new mobilizing and such. That the strike against MONUSCO. Just appeared as the neighbors wants to address the problems of the ADF. Like the military movements will come as even the returning soldiers in the UPDF from Somalia as well. It is just like everything is fitting like a glove for all parties involved. UPDF have extra soldiers used to combat in Somalia, while the Kivu’s is under fire and the FARDC needs support from not only peacekeepers, but serious military personnel who can actually fight the militants. It is just a perfect scenario for the leadership in Kinshasa and Kampala. While the Kivus’ are suffering in insecurity. Peace.

Reference:

Actualite.cd – ‘ RDC : 72 rebelles ADF tués lors de l’attaque contre les casques bleus à Beni selon les FARDC’ (08.12.2017) link: https://actualite.cd/2017/12/08/rdc-72-rebelles-adf-tues-lors-de-lattaque-contre-casques-bleus-a-beni-selon-fardc/

Global Security – ‘Allied Defense Force (ADF)’ (15.12.2016) link: https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/para/adf.htm

IRIN – ‘ADF-NALU militia in DRC’ (27.01.2014) link: http://www.irinnews.org/report/99538/briefing-adf-nalu-militia-drc

Radio Okapi – ‘La sécurité des districts frontaliers en discussion entre la RDC et l’Ouganda à Mbarara’ (08.12.2017) link: https://www.radiookapi.net/2017/12/08/actualite/societe/la-securite-des-districts-frontaliers-en-discussion-entre-la-rdc-et?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A%20radiookapi/actu%20%28Radiookapi.net%20-%20Actualit%C3%A9%29

United Nations Security Council – ‘Letter dated 12 January 2015 from the Chair of the Security Council Committee established pursuant to resolution 1533 (2004) concerning the Democratic Republic of the Congo addressed to the President of the Security Council’ (12.01.2015) link.http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/s_2015_19.pdf

Statement of the Chairperson of the Commission of the African Union on the Attack on United Nations Peacekeepers and Congolese Soldiers in North Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo (08.12.2017)

Addis Ababa, 8 December 2017: The Chairperson of the Commission of the African Union, Moussa Faki Mahamat, has learned with shock of the heinous attack carried out yesterday night against the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) and Congolese soldiers, in the North Kivu province. The attack resulted in the killing of 15 Tanzanian peacekeepers and 5 Congolese soldiers, while 53 members of the Mission were wounded.

The Chairperson of the Commission strongly condemns this abject attack. He conveys the African Union sincere condolences to the families of the victims and wishes speedy recovery to the wounded. He expresses the African Union solidarity with the peoples and Governments of Tanzania and the Democratic Republic of Congo, as well as with MONUSCO and the entire United Nations family. He looks forward to speedy and concrete steps to identify the perpetrators of this crime and bring them to justice.

The Chairperson of the Commission commends MONUSCO for its vital role in the Democratic Repubic of Congo, particularly in the current context marked by preparations for the holding of the elections planned for December next year. In this respect, he underlines the need to avail MONUSCO all the support it needs to facilitate the discharge of its mandate.

Opinion: The Inter-Burundian Dialogue was bound to fail, because President Nkurunziza wanted it so!

Well, it is not strange that the Inter-Burundian Dialogue done with help of Ugandan President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni and with former Tanzanian President Benjamin William Mpaka. These two did it under the East African Community (EAC) umbrella and with support of the African Union (AU). The continued oppression of opposition to the President Pierre Nkurunziza and his ruling party CNDD-FDD, who changed the constitution and also allowed the President to start his third term in 2015.

Therefore, the Inter-Burundian Dialogue that has gone since the crisis and crackdown on opposition occurred. Haven’t created peace, neither dialogue that has made any sense. That is why the recent reports of even Mpaka being ‘disappointed’ with the results. Nkuruniziza and CNDD-FDD had no interests in changing their paradigm. As they have the Courts, Parliament and Society in general. In Burundi, Nkurunziza is the law and it will be bent to his needs.

That is why this is the recent result from the last meetings, which has lasted and where the venue and the people showing up has been decided by the President and his men. Therefore, many vital opposition groups not been involved, neither has bigger civil society, therefore just by that sense the whole negotiations and sessions. They have not delivered anything substantial. Just like Nkurunziza would prefer.

In his speech before all the participants in the inter-Burundian dialogue in Arusha, Facilitator Benjamin William Mkapa, has announced “there will be no agreement, declaration or binding document” after the two-week session expected to end this 8 December. In the 7 December plenary session that lasted thirty minutes, some points of convergence that could a form an agreement as well as points of divergence that could be the subject of dialogue and negotiation in the future have been identified” (…) “Benjamin Mkapa says the points of divergence require more consultation among the stakeholders so that there should be a way out of the political impasse that Burundi has been through since 2014 as soon as possible” (Uwimana, 2017).

While that was happening, another plenary sessions in the Inter-Burundian Dialogue that has steadily happen since 2015. With nothing to show for, in the midst of it, there been more arrests, assassinations and exile for leadership in the opposition. The CNDD-FDD Youth League, the militant and violent arm of the government, the Imbonerakure who has also taken part in killings and kidnapping individuals who is opposing the regime.

As that is still happening, there been workings on new changes to the Constitution to give the President, yet more time in power. His plan is to not leave and stay for life. He does it with all means to oppress and control all parts of society. Therefore, they are holding a ceremony on the 12th December 2017 at Commune Bugenda in the Province of Githara. Where they are planning a referendum to fix it ready for the President. This will be celebration to secure the future legally for Nkurunziza.

So with that initial change, the Arusha Accord of 2000 is officially buried somewhere inside Burundi. It is totally dead and has no return while Nkurunziza and CNDD-FDD are ruling. They just used the EAC and the mediation to stall for time. They just used the Inclusive Inter-Burundian Dialogue, to use time to consolidate more power and make sure they knew of all their enemies. That is why there are less of them, if there are people who stand against them. They will crush them. Just like when one of the Opposition Parties got a new leader, his Hotel was destroyed the day after. That wasn’t a coincidence. That is the CNDD-FDD leadership in action.

Pierre Nkurunziza has no plan of leaving and he uses all tools to stay there. No stone left unturned. The EAC Dialogue and Sessions was wasting time, but giving him time to change the constitution. Through a Referendum. So that he can elect himself again in 2020. This with a lavish ceremony on the 12th December, the next steps for his re-election and his possible fourth term. With all the bloodshed and the destruction of the opposition. Even in the refugee camps inside Tanzania has certain leaders of the opposition been arrested and detained in Burundi. Also people have disappeared and vanish from the surface of the earth.

The Inter-Burundian Dialogue was built on wrong direction, as Museveni as peacemaker has a stake in the young leader in Burundi. He wants loyal friends in the presidency around him. At one point in 2015, when the crisis was at its worst and the uprising was starting. There was reports of Ugandan Army and helicopters flying to secure his movement. Therefore, he had a useful measure and provider to secure Nkurunziza legitimacy. As well, as the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission provided the technical aspects of the election. This was to show that the International Community, foreign forces had their stakes in the process. Still, it was more for show, than for what charade that was going on.

If all the violence and deaths, all the refugees and people in exile is showing. Is that Nkurunziza are controlling and taking advantage of his position. The use of Mpaka and EAC is also really a proof of Museveni, to not take alone ownership. But using the EAC as a mediator, but him giving way. Mpaka has been told who to invite and minutes to discuss. Therefore, the control from the government has ruled out any results or changes that would question the third term and also the rule of Nkurunziza.

This was bound to fail, because it was made to do so. Nkurunziza and Museveni, haven’t had any interests in other results or making accords in accordance with Arusha Agreement of 2000. They just wanted to secure the CNDD-FDD and Nkurunziza. To say something else, is just to lie or make a alternative story. With all the time passed and all the reports coming. There haven’t been any concessions or any significant proof of will, to divert or even discuss anything that would question the breaches of a third term and now a possible fourth. Peace.

Reference:

Uwimana, Diane – ‘Arusha: “There will be no agreement, declaration or binding document”, says Facilitator’ (07.12.2017) link: http://www.iwacu-burundi.org/englishnews/arusha-there-will-be-no-agreement-declaration-or-binding-document-says-facilitator/

North Kivu – Attack on MONUSCO troops at Semuliki, at least 14 Peacekeepers and 5 FARDC soldiers killed (08.12.2017)

NASA Statement: Roadmap of the People’s Assembly (08.12.2017)

Democratic Republic of Congo: New ‘Kivu Security Tracker’ Maps Eastern Violence (07.12.2017)

Over 500 Killed, 1,000 Abducted in Kivu Provinces in Past 6 Months.

GOMA, Democratic Republic of Congo, December 7, 2017 – The new Kivu Security Tracker will map violence by armed groups and Congolese security forces in the Democratic Republic of Congo’s eastern Kivu provinces, Human Rights Watch and the New York University-based Congo Research Group said today. The joint project will monitor the worst violence in North and South Kivu provinces through maps, graphs, and analytical reports.

According to initial results from the Tracker, from June to November 2017, at least 526 civilians were killed in the Kivus, at least 1,087 people were abducted or kidnapped for ransom, and there were at least 11 incidents of mass rape.

“As civilians suffer alarming attacks in eastern Congo, the Kivu Security Tracker will provide policy makers, journalists, activists, and others with an innovative new tool to better understand the violence,” said Ida Sawyer, Central Africa director at Human Rights Watch. “We hope the Tracker will be used to more effectively address the root causes of Congo’s conflict, support communities affected, and hold those responsible to account.”

Since the Tracker began documenting incidents in June, a team of 14 Congolese researchers based across North and South Kivu have spoken daily with victims of abuses and their families, witnesses, customary chiefs, clergy, activists, and government officials to document abuses and seek to identify the armed actors responsible. Project staff in Congo and abroad then verify their reports with reliable sources before publishing incidents on the website, providing comprehensive and timely accounts that are updated as additional information becomes available.

The Tracker records violent incidents by armed groups and members of the Congolese security forces, both in armed conflict and political violence. The data set includes violent deaths, clashes between armed groups, abductions, kidnappings, mass rapes (with at least five victims in a single attack), property destruction, and the repression of peaceful political demonstrations. Nearly 800 incidents were logged during the first six months of reporting.

The Tracker is intended to promote greater understanding of events in a country facing increased violence. Last year, 922,000 people were displaced in Congo, more than anywhere else in the world. In October, the United Nations declared a “Level 3 emergency” in Congo, a category only given to three other countries: Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. The Congolese conflict, however, is marked by enormous complexity – the Tracker maps areas of control for 120 armed groups in just two of the country’s 26 provinces. This has made it difficult for policymakers to devise solutions and for media to tell the story behind the violence, the organizations said.

The Tracker helps address this challenge. By highlighting patterns and trends, and through a graphic representation of the violence, it aims to make the conflict more comprehensible. The initial findings indicate that much of the violence in the Kivus goes unreported. Ninety percent of the incidents documented on the Tracker, amounting to 70 percent of violent deaths, were not mentioned at all in international media. More than half are absent from the best available academic trackers of violence.

While many factors contribute to the violence, some trends stand out. Congolese security forces were responsible for over 100 violent deaths over the past six months, more than any single armed group and roughly one fifth of total killings documented. One of the worst single incidents documented was a massacre of at least 39 Burundian refugees by Congolese security forces in Kamanyola, South Kivu, on September 15.

The Tracker’s findings also suggest that the conflict in eastern Congo has been exacerbated by the country’s general political crisis, as President Joseph Kabila has delayed elections and used violence, repression, and corruption to entrench his hold on power beyond the end of his constitutionally mandated two-term limit, which ended on December 19, 2016. Armed groups have formed coalitions to challenge Kabila’s extended presidency, while the government has cracked down violently on peaceful protesters.

“Levels of displacement in Congo today are higher than ever recorded,” said Jason Stearns, director of the Congo Research Group. “The current political crisis is not just a question of elections, but it’s about the millions affected by persistent and deadly violence. Solving the crisis will require nuanced engagement in the conflict, but also the political will to challenge those responsible.”

Kasai, Democratic Republic of Congo: Millions at Risk as Funding Dries up (06.12.2017)

With 3.2 million people desperately short of food, WFP has stepped in with emergency assistance.

KINSHASA, Democratic Republic of Congo, December 6, 2017 – An acute hunger emergency in conflict-ravaged Greater Kasai could turn into a long-term disaster, the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) warned today. While the agency has been working against the clock to help ever more people, the cash is quickly running out.

“We’re letting down those who need us most,” said Claude Jibidar, WFP’s Representative in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). A tightly planned surge had made a big difference, Jibidar explained, but WFP had largely funded this from its own meagre resources. “Without immediate donor support, many – particularly women and children – will die.”

The eruption of violence in what used to be a poor but peaceful region has claimed countless lives. Some 1.4 million people have been forced from their homes. Traditionally high malnutrition rates have sky-rocketed.

With 3.2 million people desperately short of food, WFP has stepped in with emergency assistance. A lull in fighting has allowed more staff to be deployed. Aid workers have fanned out into the Kasai countryside. WFP has co-ordinated multi-agency logistics and humanitarian flights. As a result, the number of people assisted has grown rapidly – from 42,000 in September to 115,000 in October and 225,000 in November. Last month, 13,500 children were given special fortified foods.

But donors’ reluctance to commit to Kasai is jeopardizing this effort. While WFP plans to feed almost half a million people in December, so depleted are the agency’s coffers that only half-rations can be distributed.

Hunger not only puts lives at risk: it forces people into prostitution and increases the risk of sexual violence, Jibidar stressed. “Government partners must do all in their power to spare Kasai from the kind of decades-long humanitarian catastrophe that has plagued other DRC regions.”

 

Burundi: Declaration de la Coalition Burundaise des Defenseurs des droits de l’Homme (CBDDH) sur l’Arrestation et l’Emprisonnement du Defenseur des droits Humains Nibitanga Nestor (06.12.2017)

Kenya: DCI Letter to NTV Larry Madowo – “Re: NTV Interview by Larry Madowo with David Ndii on 22nd August, 2017 at 900 P.M.” (05.12.2017)