Now the continued “Law Enforcement Operation” continues as it has done since 3rd November 2020. The media black-out continues and the state enforce their rules to silence dissenting voices about their actions in the Tigray region. Surely, they would do the same if people leaked about the atrocities in Oromia as well. The Prosperity Party and Prime Minister Ahmed Ali Abiy doesn’t want everything out. Therefore, we have no clear idea what happens in Tigray and in Oromia. Both places has to be remembered.
However, the main focus these days are in Tigray region. As there is where the pressure, where the army and also foreign allies are supporting the warfare. This is done to get rid of one political party, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). The TPFL have a history, which is dark and grim. The TPLF should answer for those crimes in court and through due process. However, that is not what’s happening these days. The Prosperity Party, the former coalition party has gone head on with full armed forces attacking it.
The Prime Minister has cut of electricity, internet and blocked banking service. The government has closed of the roads and all sort of delivery of goods to the public of the Tigray region. The state has sacked and arrested people who Tigrayan ethnicity. Therefore, this war is more than just against the TPLF. They have attacked the general public too.
The Prime Minister have not only sent soldiers against civilians, he has bombed and used heavy artillery. Something he now orders and plans to do within 72 hours to the capital of the Region, Mekelle. The army has already been able to move closer and closer to it.
The Federal Government has announced that it will be no mercy and that the public needs finds shelter. The government are threatening the TPLF and everyone associated with it. Just like the world and the TPLF doesn’t know they are at war, which it has been for 20 days now. While they are both doing this. The state and the TPLF is taken all the other citizens hostage in the warfare. Ensuring innocent civilians becomes casualties and prey to their war-games.
It is hard to see what will give? Since the African Union Special Envoys seems futile. The Prime Minister is not willing to talk. Neither his generals or associates within his cabinet. The Federal Government only wants to secure the total annihilation of the TPLF. Therefore, what we can remember for this days is how the central government wasn’t willing and also to mediate to spare lives. Since, the ego of actually killing the enemy was more important.
With this in mind, what happens after the third operation in this war? What is the plan after this? Do you have any?
Because, even if the Federal Army takes Mekelle it doesn’t necessarily mean that you have conquered TPLF. It only mean you have taken the biggest city of the region. That you have bombed a city of half-million inhabitants and possible caused more havoc. This is the end-game.
The TPLF and Special Forces might flee to the hills to start insurgency battles instead. You are moving the battlefields and creating a possible guerrilla war. Where they will suddenly appear and they know their region. Well, it is their home and their hills. It is not like all the soldiers from other regions knows it as well. That they can read the terrain and have control of it. This is why, it’s like the PM is playing a big-man. However, haven’t thought ahead.
With all the war-games his playing. His only hardening the staunch supporters of the TPLF and the Tigray. As they got new grievances and pain of the general punishment from the state. The suffering put on them and their kin. It is like they are second grade citizens over night.
That is why, since there is no official game-plan only ad-hoc planning it seems from Addis Ababa. What happens after Mekelle falls? Do you have a plan for a possible insurgency and recruitment camps in the hills and rural areas of Tigray? Do you think the people of Tigray and TPLF will give way because you blasted their capital to pieces?
If you do… then your a naive man. Yes, men will bow their knees and ask for peace. Even if it is a fake peace. Because, everyone knows the war waged on the public here will haunt for a long time. It is not with an on- and off switch.
Mekelle is a step in a direction of consolidation of power for the Federal Government. However, it is not clear victory. Yes, it is a symbolic victory …
However, the game is not yet over. Prime Minister Abiy should know this. The world needs to know this. That this warfare and war-game of the PM isn’t over like that. Even if he writes some pieces stating the glorious achievement.
Still, he should prepare for the long game. Though I feel that’s not in him. It is easier just to get his way and get rid of the ones in his path. That is why he ordered the war in the first place.
So, I am just wondering… what’s next? How do you plant to do this?
Prime Minister have made the TPLF a “treasonous” and “illegal” organization, the PM have made their former legal entities of the armies into “militias”. That’s why you need a plan ahead. In the short-term there is a lot of gains for you and your allies. However, in the end… can these back-fire and someone else can return the favour? Have the Prime Minister considered that?
This “Law Enforcement Operation” will not be quick-fix. That can be long lasting and the heartache it has created can last for a generation. Not like the ones losing loved ones, the ones scorned by soldiers or the ones fleeing their villages. Will not remember the devastation that meet them.
It is something that will haunt them. This was done by their government towards their regional leadership. The PM better have some good plans and legislation ahead, better have aid packages and rebuilding projects lined up. Since, he ordered this and need to fix everything was broken during these days of warfare. His the man in-charge and his accountable for it.
That’s why the PM needs to address the inevitable. It is easy to come with warnings and threaten the opponent. However, what happens after Mekelle? Peace.
The Ethiopian authorities are not only cracking down on local media and media houses. As they have arrested several of local journalists for various reasons since they went to war against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) on the 3rd November 2020. These have been arrested and detained in Addis Ababa.
There has also been jamming phone-lines, stopping the internet and cutting the electricity in the Tigray region. Now, during the day of 20th November 2020 the reports are out that DW and BBC have been warned about possible losing licenses to work in the Republic. Reuters has already lost their license and William Davidson a Crisis Group analyst lost his license and is deported today. Therefore, the authorities are picking their targets with care.
They are going after international media houses to ensure that only their vision is coming out. If the authorities and the state gets their will. Only their message and their stories are coming out. As the TPLF will only counteract with minor retorts now and then. The trouble with that is both have an agenda and they are working for their own cause. It will not be the whole story or be investigated, but instead be the favourable story of either the Prime Minister or the TPLF President. Therefore, this is no good for the outsider or the ones gleaning for the truth.
In warfare there are many stories, some things that is not suitable for office and for the kind hearted. There will be horrific crimes, acts of brutality and possible breaches of human rights. These violations will never be broadcast by the perpetrator, but by outsiders who is telling a story of what is happening. The murderer would never want to tell about his manslaughter, no he wants it to be self-defence or be acquitted.
That matters for both sides, as the reports will be one sided and jaded for their purpose. It is hard to believe the government want to take fault for bombing public institutions, infrastructure or vital installations. They would say they never did or didn’t miss a target.
So, we can be really skeptical about the news that comes out. As we all should know that both parties have motives. It is to better their cause and sound like a justified mission. They would never breach or violent human rights. Neither would they ever say that they did crimes against humanity or conducted warfare, which was violating the codes of the Geneva Convention. No, they would never say that. This is why the independent press and eyes on conflict can directly tell stories and report for the general what is happening. In a manner, which the government nor the opposition want to have out. The Prosperity Party wants one story and the TPLF wants another one. That makes sense, right?
This is why the current state of affair is worrying. As the state wants a total blackout of media. They only wants media who is eating of the plate of the government. Only tell the stories, which puts them in a positive light. Not tell the stories of the refugees or anyone else who has been an eyewitness to actions. As they are not telling the story that favours the ideals and vision of the Prime Minister. These are just stories of scorned civilians who should envision the world in the spirit as the ones who ordered this war.
That is why we should be worried. This story will never be fulfilled. Not until investigative reports are coming out. When the affidavits and witness reports are leaked from the battlefields. Not the victory lap of the National Army and their victories. No, when the general stories of what went down and how they did it. We will know what happened. Right now, it can only be speculated about what happened. Since, the state and their authorities doesn’t want the world to know.
When they are blocking it. We should worry what they do. As they have a pass to commit any sort of actions. Since no one can report it and only eyewitnesses are the ones fleeing to refugee camps in Sudan. These says some of what happened, but not the whole story. Because, no one could tape it or record it. We are only getting the stories two parties wants and that is only the gist they want to tell. Not the whole story or the whole truth. Since that truth is silenced by state itself. Peace.