
The Tigray Defence Force (TDF) and Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) is speculated to have achieved plenty of miles and territory, as they closing in on the strategical town of Debre Birhan, as that is only 132,7 kilo-meters away from Addis Ababa or Finfinne.
In the second front in Afar Region there is reports that the TDF is fighting remaining Ethiopia National Defence Force and Afar Regional Special Forces aroundn the town of Mille, which is the main road to Djibouti. While the Debre Birhan is closing off another feeder road and vital route to the capital. This will be besieging the capital, in manners of which the state has done the Tigray region for months. With this in mind, the TDF-OLA is directly blocking the A1/A2. That something the Republic cannot afford in the long run.
The ENDF and the government can still get supplies by air and to Bole International Airport. However, it is closing in as pockets of territories are taken not only in Oromia, but in other regions as well. On the 7th November the TDF already took control of Mekane Selam and by doing so. They cut off the Dessie – Bahir Dar route. Therefore, the routes are becoming closed in and the Republic is feeling the damage.
We should expect the government and ENDF to be in panic mode, if this happens. There is already reports of possible internet blockade. It is reported that social media is being slowed down. The state is excusing leaks of a national exams, but this is happening as the TDF-OLA alliance is moving forward.
This will hurt the Prosperity Party and their allies, which isn’t able to stagnate the momentum. Neither, the international community or the African Union Envoy who just visited Mekelle to talk peace with Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). These talks are clearly not enough. The U.S. Department asking for the TDF-OLA to ceasefire isn’t listened to either. Not strange that these hasn’t adhered to that, as the siege of Tigray haven’t ceased and neither has state given any positive signals in concerns with it’s hostilities within Oromia. Therefore, both parties had no grounds to trust the government or it’s allies in this matter.
What is striking is that the TDF-OLA alliance, tactics and strategy is working. Even when the ENDF is importing equipment on the daily. Have weapons specialists flown in the to the Republic. Also, the extravagant purchases of drones and other military equipment. The ENDF has even been forced to force conscription and taking away youths from areas, which the government still controls. In the middle of the night filling up buses to send youths to the front. The state is sending anyone and able bodies to the front.
If these strategic movements and these territories falls into the hands of TDF-OLA. Than the capital is closer to be encircled. The ENDF and the current government would feel the pressure. The battles and the front-line isn’t just somewhere far up north. Neither is it far away with the usage of Amhara regional special forces or the para-military group “Fano”. No, it coming close to home and where power resides.
This should be a warning to Abiy, as the shelling and artillery is over Debre Birhan anytime soon. It is just speculated and rumours of the arrival of the TDF-OLA. That wouldn’t be shocking anymore. As these two collectively is striking at targets from more than one angle. This gives them an advantage and also more flexible usage of their troops. Therefore, expect news to come and that this is soon under control of these armies.
When that happens… know that the ENDF and other Regional Special Forces might retreat or even join the TDF-OLA. Just like there been reports of Oromo Special Regional Forces leaving the Republic to fight with them.
If that happens… the fall of Addis Ababa will happen even quicker. Time will tell and if this is all true. We know the state comes with propaganda … and want the enemies to look weak. They want to look like they have control, but that is hard to believe, as the TDF-OLA is advancing. That’s why we have to follow and see what next move the armies does in the coming days. Peace.