
It has now revealed that there is a plan for a National Dialogue in Ethiopia in September 2021. However, the premise and the whole scheme behind it isn’t believable. Because, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali have burned all bridges with all the opposition and dissidents. He has either designated them to exile, detained indefinitely, charged with terrorism or killed them. That is what he does and this is why it’s not something to have faith in.
I have the same feeling as I had with the fake and bogus Grand National Dialogue in Cameroon of 2019. When President Paul Biya and his cadres called for a Conference and Consultations to move things ahead. Where Biya and his astute handlers all cheered and clapped for the magnificent display. However, it didn’t resolve anything or be a legit session of dialogue. As it was an one-sided affair where Biya’s men was in control and the opposition in the conflict was practically shunned.
In Burundi before this you had the Inter-Burundian Dialogue that was set-up after the General Election of 2015. When the East African Community (EAC) held an extra-ordinary summit in 2016. This lasted until May 2021, but haven’t been functioning in ages. While Pierre Nkurunziza was alive and the head of state. He muffled and assured the facilitator Benjamin Mpaka in such a way. That he was directed who could participate and when to invite the various parties in the conflict and crisis. Therefore, this was bound to fail and done so deliberately, as the CNDD-FDD wanted it this way.
That’s why when I hear the Prosperity Party and Prime Minister Abiy wants to have a “National Dialogue” now. This while the opposition is lingering in jail. Plenty of parties have been silenced. Others has been chosen and only had the option of warfare to live. While the government have used the conflict to weaponize starvation and block humanitarian access to Tigray region. This is all deliberate acts and the conference is coming, as the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) and the price of the war is costing to much.
The state is running low on funds and foreign exchange. The foreign aid donors and partners has suspended programs, which is stopping the possible spending and cover funding for the expensive war. A war that was supposed to be in the final stages at the end of November 2020. Now his in the end of August 2021 and he wasn’t prepared for the conflict to turn this way. Neither was his generals or allies. They all had hubris and ideals of quick, brief and successive war after launching it early November 2020.
This is why his calling for a “dialogue” now is suspect at least. If it was sincere the Federal Government and its allies wouldn’t just “announce” it, but consult with all the other parties involved. Heck, they just want the PR and positive press. However, they have no plan of actually talking or mediating. That’s a bridge to far and a chapter already closed. This is why Abiy never accepted talks with Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) or Sudanese Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok. Because, a real mediation or effort would have cost Abiy his pride and honour. Which his not trading away. He was the supposed victor and his enemies was supposed to bend the knee. If not they were supposed to praise him and be his loyal subjects. However, that never happened and this is why they are not at the table.
We just know the game and the Prime Minister have already played his cards. The Tigray and Oromo leaders knows this. The other regions and parties knows this as well. Not like the Ogaden or such has any say. That’s why this dialogue is only for public display, but no real answers. Because, if that was to happened, than the PM and PP have to end their own hostilities and give way. Which at this point is unnatural and out of character.
Prime Minister Abiy rather lie and deceive. Use the moments of self glory and later find a time to stop, silence or even kill his enemies. That is why this dialogue will not be the real deal. It is just a front and hopefully dupe a few friendly donors. So, that they think he will work for “peace” but in reality it’s a scheme to secure more funds for furthering the war.
That’s why this is happening, as he needs fresh recruits, funds and ability to find a new way to counter-attack his enemies on various of fronts. His not only fighting in Tigray region anymore. His soldiers are doing his bidding in Afar, Amhara and Oromia. That’s why he needs more cash and foreign exchange to buy guns, ammo and technical equipment to have a possible resurgence in the conflict. Which has spiralled for way to long and has costed way more than he anticipated. Peace.















