Opinion: Obasanjo has an unforgiving mission in Ethiopia

“ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia, March 21, 2016 – Some of Africa’s leaders are responsible for instability on the continent because they have failed to manage diversity in their societies, the former Nigerian President, General Olusegun Obasanjo, has said” (TANA Forum – ‘Press Statement: “Some African leaders to blame for conflicts” – Obasanjo’ 21.03.2016).

Today Olusegun Obasanjo as the Representative of the Chairperson of the African Union for the Horn of Africa. One of his key objectives and mandate is to mediate in the Ethiopian conflict. Alas, he has a mountain to climb and it’s an unforgiving job. This is a position and a office, which isn’t for the kind-hearted. Since, the parties here are in the trenches and in a brutal war. They are not in this for a small token or to get global recognition.

Obasanjo is now meddling and intervening within a battle, which has become broader and wider than what the Tripartite Alliance anticipated. The alliance of FDRE, SOE and Amhara allies didn’t anticipate the formation of a broad alliance of nationalities to combat the Tripartite Alliance. Therefore, at this point, the war isn’t only Addis Ababa-Asmara versus Mekelle. No, it is much more wider and with the objective of rectifying the leadership structure of the nation.

This is why the African Union (AU) is late here and the talks is only stalling things. The mediator can drop a statement saying today: “I am optimistic that common ground towards a peaceful resolution of the conflict can be secured. The interlocutors I have engaged on all sides have stated their wish for peace, security, and stability in Ethiopia. The main point of difference between the actors is in the means by which they seek to achieve this essential objective. War represents a failure of politics. Thus dialogue remains the only reliable and sustainable avenue to peace. There is no military solution to the conflict and battlefield victory cannot guarantee political stability in Ethiopia. I, therefore, appeal to the leadership of all sides to halt their military offensives. This will allow an opportunity for dialogue to continue to progress. Such talks cannot deliver in an environment of escalated military hostilities” (African Union – ‘Statement on the Prospects for Peace in Ethiopia by H.E. Olusegun Obasanjo High representative of the Chairperson of the African Union Commission for the Horn of Africa’ 14.11.2021).

It is like Obasanjo haven’t learned from his own experience. Just 5 years ago as a Tana Forum speaker or delegate. He spoke of the reason why we are seeing a war within Ethiopia today. The diversity and marginalization of certain groups is the reason for the conflict in Ethiopia. That’s because one man wanted to consolidate all power and use old grievances to settle it. He wanted to overcome the TPLF and by doing so hurt the Tigrayan ethnic group. This he got done by getting allies who has suffered, because of the leadership in Mekelle.

Deep down, I think Obasanjo know the difference and the difficulties here. The parties are not willing to really talk. These are just cordial meetings to buy time. We know the United Front against Prosperity Party is running towards Addis Ababa. This is just common knowledge as they are aiming to use arms to change the leadership. They are not trusting or having faith in negotiations. That’s why the former President is to hopeful in this manner.

I don’t see Abiy or Afewerki talking to Debretsion. I wish I could, but these have already vilified and gone total genocide on the enemy. They are arresting people for being associated or allegedly associated with either Tigray Defence Force (TDF) or Oromo Liberation Front (OLF). Therefore, seeing them talking or having a meeting seems unlikely. If the TPLF/OLF went to talk. I would be worried of arrests and authorities surrounding the venue. This is why the hope is very dishonest at this moment of time.

The talks Obasanjo was maybe positive and had a good vibe. However, those vibes will not change the matters on the ground. As the FDRE is going into a “survival campaign” mode and the TDF-OLA is slowly advancing towards their target. This is not a time or a moment of thinking these will give way. No party will earn on it and that would only salvage the reign of Abiy. A ruler, which is a warlord and someone who many wants gone. Therefore, if Obasanjo wants to save his term or if he wants peace. That is two difference objectives….

I don’t see the hope or the possibilities of quick or brief ceasing of military operations. That means an unilateral ceasefire, which means all parties would silence their guns. The Tripartite Alliance never did that and only played the facade of that. While they we’re still annexing Western Tigray and besieging the rest of Tigray region. Therefore, Obasanjo is too positive or naive. I doubt any of the parties will give way. These parties will fight to the death or until they have to go to exile. Peace.

A memo to the AU: If IGAD can’t do it, why do you think Obasanjo can do it?

The African Union (AU) has today appointed the former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo as the High Representative for the Horn of Africa. The African Union Commissioner might have the best interests at heart here and the will to make a difference. However, at this point of time and with the leaders at today. This appointment will go nowhere.

The AU could have appointed a saint, a maverick and a superstar to this role. They could have had the best negotiator even known to mankind and it still wouldn’t resolve anything. In 2021 and with the current head of states. There will not be any will or resolve to silence the guns. No, that’s not happening.

Mr. Obasanjo is getting another pay-check. He is getting another retirement-fund and additional high ranking official status. Being a diplomat and getting VIP treatment in Addis Ababa. He will not lack the perks and the bottle-service. However, that will not change the matters on the ground.

If there would have been a possible change, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) would have made some significant moves. The IGAD is already there to do this and ensure stability on the Horn of Africa. As IGAD says itself: “IGAD to be the premier Regional Economic Community (REC) for achieving peace and sustainable development in the region. Mission: Promote regional cooperation and integration to add value to Member States’ efforts in achieving peace, security and prosperity”.

So with that in mind, the Horn of Africa should already have an organization and the apparatus to achieve peace and security. Now, that is futile and lacking. That’s why the AU is boosting it’s operation and hiring Obasanjo to make things look good. However, he will not go anywhere or get anything done. At least nothing substantial or fruitful. Except for cashing-in and enjoying VIP treatment.

Obasanjo will get the cold-shoulder, which Sudanese Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok has gotten. Not to mention the double-speaking and erratic diplomatic cables of Mogadishu. Which we have seen in coordination with the AU Chair of the Year Felix Tshisekedi. When Hamdok have gotten silent treatment from Addis Ababa. Not like Asmara will be friendly either. Djibouti President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh will be all smiles, as he has all the major powers having military bases and that’s why he feels untouchable.

The former Nigerian President have to magic. He has to show all of his tricks of his trade and negotiations. As there are several of conflicts and not lacking of guns in rotation. There are so much hurt, pain and social animosity. That it isn’t a steady and strong Horn of Africa at this point. No, everyone is pinned in one conflict or another.

If it is battle of clans within Somalia. If it is Al-Shabab sending suicide bombs or retaliating at the AMISOM mission somewhere. If it is Issa-Somali militias targeting Ethiopian regions of Ogaden and Afar. If it is all the Liberation Fronts going to war against the Tripartite Alliance within Ethiopia. If it is the skirmishes and the simmering conflict between Ethiopia and Sudan over the Al-Fashqa triangle. Together with the genocidal war in the Tigray region of Ethiopia. There is no stop of warfare and conflicts currently happening.

That is why Obasanjo have not only a mountain to climb but several actually. In combination with the elections in Somalia. There is no shortlist of hurdles and hardships. If he will even touch on those and not only smile for pressers. It would be likely to have low-level consultations and meetings. However, he will not gather all the hopeful and neither be allowed to meet all parties. No, the states involved rather wants to annihilate and get rid of enemies. They are not willing to talk to them. That’s why IGAD has failed and why Obasanjo will be left astray as well.

Obasanjo will be a nice-poster child for this. He will bring good publicity but not achieve anything. That is the outset and the ones around making sure of. It is not like the heads of state is changing in a matter of no-time and that these are suddenly becoming will partners of dialogue. Especially, when they haven’t considered or even tried before. That’s why the mission of the High Representative is futile.

He should call up IGAD and get their in-put. Because, there is nowhere to hide here and the snakes are ready to bite. Peace.

UNOWAS: Mahamat ANNADIF reaffirms the mobilization of the United Nations to support Guinea-Bissau in its efforts to consolidate democratic institutions (03.06.2021)

Nigeria: ONSA – Press Statement (01.02.2019)

ECOWAS: Portant Adoption des Sanctions Personelles visant a Favoriser la Restauration de la Gouvernance Democratique et le Respect de l’Etat de droit en Republique de Guinee Bissau (04.02.2018)

Joint Statement of the African Union and the United Nations on Guinea-Bissau (03.02.2018)

Opinion: Mzee don’t want to bother foreign investors with taxes, just give him a Presidential Handshakes!

Well, I am biased, as the President are visiting Dubai for 4th Global Business Forum on Africa on the 2^nd November 2017. President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni is trying to cater to foreign investors. People who he usually cater to at the State House, so he can get favors and Presidential Handshakes. That is why he isn’t bothered with taxes, because the tax-holidays and possible offerings will be huge for the investors who comes in. That is what the National Resistance Movement (NRM) are doing, especially if it is for instance a nations offering the state loan, than the same state can come with state-companies to build infrastructure like Chinese companies coming in after offering loans to the same NRM government. Therefore, just look at what he was saying yesterday, which is weird, but fit a pattern.

“Since you are business people, we must be talking about profits. When you talk of Uganda and Africa, you are talking about peace as an enabling environment; which we have. We have raw materials, and have a population of 40 million people that’s’ a market. And if we talk of integration we have a four tear market” (…) “In Africa, the demand is there and growing because we have been under-consuming while the rest of the world the demand is falling because they have been over consuming” (…) “There are plenty of raw materials, minerals, tourism and so on so when you invest there you have access to all these” (…) “I don’t have to bother investors with taxes, what I want is for them to invest, use our raw materials, create jobs, add value and promote exports” (State House Uganda, 2017).

Well, so the President trying to say to foreign investors, you don’t need to pay taxes for your output, just cater to me. The state you don’t have to bother about, just bother about catering to the State House and me. We will add value and promote exports, we will agreements and make sure you get the value on our resources and low-payed workers.

We know who is the biggest taxpayers in the republic, because of Uganda Revenue Authority own statement in the media on the 31^st October 2017, which stated names like Mr. Alnasir Virani Gulam Hussein Habib, Dr. Sudhir Ruparelia, Mohammed Hussain, Nakayima Janat, Karia Minex, Karia Kunnal, Alykhan Hudani and Dayalijil Karan. Who are sounding like foreign investors and they are on the top 25 biggest taxpayers in Uganda. So the state has already connected families from abroad to invest there in various businesses. This shows there are already people who is not worried about taxes, but about the output of their companies.

Some of these investors has made big names, while others have worked more in silence. Still, this shows that the top earners even promoted by URA and Doris Akol. Proves how they are working, as there wasn’t that many own citizens on the list. That shows that the foreign investors must get a special advantage and special agreements at the state house for their dealings. Especially, considering how it has been done, just for tearing down markets in Kampala for own investors and financial agreements. This has been done and arranged from the State House without consultation with locals, neither KCCA or the renters of these markets. That is how the NRM and Museveni do deals in favor of him and if he get ill-gained funds, he will support the “development”. It is in similar fashion he exposes his intent in Dubai.

That the State doesn’t need taxes or need structures to facilitate for foreign investors, they just needs agreements with State House and then it is all fair-game. It is insane, but fits the Modus Operandi of the Musevenism and NRM regime. Give him a Presidential Handshake and you can operate as you want in the Republic. Peace.

Reference:

State House Uganda – ‘President Museveni woos Arab investors to Uganda “We have the raw materials, human resource and market”’ (02.11.2017) link: https://www.africa-newsroom.com/press/president-museveni-woos-arab-investors-to-uganda-we-have-the-raw-materials-human-resource-and-market?lang=en

Opinion: It’s ironic that President Museveni is talking about disciplining the government!

“The three arms of government and their sub-branches must have discipline. For example I have been involved in disciplining the army. We should do the same for other sub-branches of government. If the Judiciary is also disciplined in fighting corruption, citizens will lead a good life.” – Yoweri Kaguta Museveni on the 1^st October 2017, State House Entebbe.

Its just one of these days that hearing the news and seeing the tweets of the President, makes me laugh and wonder if he listen to himself. He knows his system and has made his garden. The way the government steers and govern is because of his policies, his regulations and his support. It is not like there been other ruling for last 30 years in Uganda. The Republic has been under the control of Museveni and his National Resistance Movement (NRM).

The NRM has suffocated all other free-will and control. Therefore, Ministers, Members of Parliament and others seek guidance and funds directly at the State House in Entebbe. Even foreign investors meet there to make agreements. Everything is nearly sanctioned out there. The Discipline now is more on the narrow-minded government that is run from there. The institutions and the procedures are not so important. Since most things happening is with the words from “above”, meaning the President and his close advisers.

It is not rocket science to know where the benefactor or the reason for lacking structures. That is because government waits for their go sign by the State House, they are waiting for funding of the projects and institutions from the State House. The projects and the works of the State House and under the Prime Ministers Offices are the key organizations within this government. They might say all of the massive cabinet has part to play, but that is the facade.

Therefore, it is ironic for a man so controlling and so disorganized that it gives sometimes way to the unthinkable. Just like the Presidential Handshake, that was sanctioned by the State House, but taken form the wrong account. That was the problem for the President, not that the corrupt behavior was occurring on his watch. Its like he talks against himself. Because he has no problem speaking anti-corruption, but if corruption benefit his cronies – its fine and dandy!

I am not surprised by him at this point of time, its fit his narrative. He says what he expects and wants out of others, but the next day he finds a way to benefit or use the loyalty of his cronies. Not like he would have excepted the UCC not to listen and stop the suspended MPs to hit the airways and be broadcast on TV. He rather being himself on radio and in the spotlight, but will accept anyone else sharing the same space.

President Museveni is the proof of someone saying something noble, but doing opposite. He might say something insane, but act rational. Therefore, you never know where you have him. I will never believe him actually disciplining the government, if doing so. It means they are all blindfolded and following his guidelines. It does not mean building proper governance and protocol, neither is institutionalize the departments and ministries, it is all about his will and his stature.

When it comes to Museveni, discipline is about following him. Not building transparent and proper government institutions. Peace.

NRM Letter to President Museveni: “Re: Memorandum of Important Issues Affecting Our Party and The Running of Government under the National Resistance Movement” (03.03.2017)

Opinion: Tired of NRM apologists defending the record of President Museveni!

It is depressing, it is sad and it tormenting to listen and read the defenses of National Resistance Movement. The defense of the 31 years of rule, the rule of the for life President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni and his cronies. The cronies and their 10^th Parliament, the By-Elections that are rigged in favor of the NRM Regime. The government of Uganda is totally controlled by the one in-charge, the President and kingpin.

The Parliament are following orders and making amends to seem to be different. Therefore, the results of elections are more to just show overpower, but not to have real elections. As the NRM sends buses and pays of villages with small-fees and commodities. There aren’t anything fruitful or sincere by the regime. The ones who put dissidents in the Nalufenya prison. Where they will be beaten, tortured and get ill. As well, as in the overcrowded prison in Luzira. The organized silence of opposition, as their rallies are filled with tear-gas and police brutality. If not the ones who are feared by the NRM are put on treason charges and called terrorists.

President Museveni with his patronage, his bloated State House, the massive cabinet and the Presidential Advisors. There certainly enough ghosts, fake bills and misuse of state reserves to write books ten times thicker than the bible. We can know by the lost trillions of the Petroleum monies, as the “Presidential Handshake” is a drop in the ocean. As the UNRA and other agencies has misused the taxpayers monies. This happens with such ease and lacking finesse, but the agencies looking into graft and corruption is compromised, because the ones leading it are loyal Musevenist.

That the government and budgets are bloated. That the financial and economic state is in deep distress, as the state is suffering from lacking provisions and revenue. As well, as they are struggling with the stop of donor friendly relationships. People’s and Foreigners trust in the leadership of Museveni has been dwindling. President Museveni are also already prospecting the revenue of the oil and petroleum, even before it has surfaced. Therefore, the future will also be compromised by the deals done today.

The defenders of the NRM now, does not believe in real democracy, as they defending the rigging and militant Movement. A President who has no trouble with killing and destroying to stay in power. The ones defending him has no trouble to stand by a man who empties the treasury and state reserves with no hesitation. As well, as the men and woman who stays by the regime, are easily taking land and resources, they are eating of the plate and selling it back to the Ugandans. This with impunity and without any consideration of the ones who loses their chances.

It is a nation who has a government, not based on merit, but on loyalty. The loyalty to Museveni and his agenda. The agenda to work for him and his ideas. Not work to develop the nation, but develop the estate of Museveni. The idea of real Movement is ploy from the master himself. He just needs shadows to work for him and for envelopes. Not a real party who deliver policy or working for the future Republic. No the Movement is now a shell used pounce out the empty ideas of greed, nurture of the estates of Museveni and of the staging the power of the old-man with the hat!

President Museveni and his apologists knows all of this, they live by this and has faith that this is ideal and the dream. That someone comes with empty promises and lives by the fake party celebrating the 1986 coup. The coup that overruled the government and the old constitution, that President Museveni couldn’t pigeonhole. That has he done to his own and plans to do it again for his 8^th Term.

The apologists can say he created safety, but he also created warfare and civil-war to get to power. Some called it a revolution, other calls it a takeover. But with time it wasn’t for the idea of a people’s government, but more a government and state built around the revolutionary, who didn’t really believe in the words he spoke.

The ones defending him, is defending a lie and that for the sake of eating. Not for the benefit of the Republic or the public. The struggling public is pawns, they are just needed props now and then for the Movement. As they praise their master, as they know if they get to close or too ambitious they are surely losing their place. Therefore, all of them are loyal cadres, elite and patrons who surely basks in the pasture of the President. But really, they should know it is on borrowed time. No-one knows how long the patronage and military can be serviced, how long they can all live on the charade and the misuse of power.

Certainly, the President knows this too, therefore, he uses all ways to make sure and get people on board. Even if that lets people starve, let them cheat on food reliefs and even use refugees as bailing-out card on the struggling economy. That is solely made of the patronage and grand-corruption orchestrated from the seat of the President at the Okello House. He can created all sorts of schemes and manufacture new ways of promoting better agriculture or better yields, but it is all ploys of generating more funds for his own. Not for the public to earn or get better output of the seeds and seedlings. If so, than the agricultural should be booming after 30 years in power.

However, the defense of this will be in the patronage and by the spokespersons appointed by the President. These ones will make a fuzz and say the Opposition never was a viable option and never had the leadership to overturn the Movement. The Movement has always been the only option, they say and use new ways of saying so. But that doesn’t make it true, as the rigging and the intimidation is used to forge this facade. The flawless untouched ballots doesn’t exists, there has been all sorts of play to get the will of the President.

President Museveni, even detain opposition, he uses safe-houses and some like Sam Mugumya are detained in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with no plan of getting him home. Him and others are lingering abroad as the political prisoner lingers in uncertainty. This is the legacy of the revolutionary, who became the draconian and the militarized government who uses all means to stay. He uses all methods on earth, Machiavellian and Orwellian blended in a Yellow Color with no fear of repression… no fear that the Movement can be touched, but when the moment appear. Than the Ugandans shouldn’t lose it, because they have already lost so much in the name of Museveni. Museveni has stolen the past and the present. His men has rewritten the history and tried to become the grand hero, and the generations from the rebellion is dwindling away. The young generation only knows the folklore and should beware, it is not all what it seems. The ghosts are not only in the budgets, but they are haunting the President from the past. They are the ones he stole to gain power and to silence the opposition. These souls will ask in the after-life, why he did what he did to them and also why he punished their grand-kids. Since they all lead the same faith. They all got to feel the pain, with no mercy from the leadership controlled by the President.

That is why there are no defending a man like Museveni. He has used all tricks, even was able to deceive the west for decades to pay for his decadence. Certainly, he must laugh about the dumb-white men and their agendas. His grin must be wide thinking of all the sorts of cars, airplanes and ranch expansions that are paid by the friends of direct-state aid. They have kept his roof and his ammunition, to oppress and to relief his patronage. Therefore, if someone is defending this man. Think of his track-record and all the souls he has left behind. Peace.