Opinion: Did TIRA/TPLF get outsmarted by the PP?

What did we (Prosperity Party) decide? First, let the internally displaced people (IDPs) return to their homeland. Their municipalities, their homes are known. Their numbers are also insignificant. Most of them have already returned. Let them return (to their homes). After they return, people can administer themselves, be Wolkait or Raya. Concerning security, ENDF and Federal Police will take charge. After that, let a referendum be conducted” – Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali (08.11.2023).

When the Prime Minister is saying this in the middle or during a lecture on Artificial Intelligence (A.I) yesterday. You can wonder what other tricks he has up his sleeve. Let me first state the “insignificant” numbers, which is outrages in itself.

OCHA Situation Report of 31st October 2023: “The Ethiopian Government is responding to food shortage gaps where possible. Accordingly, some 361,000 vulnerable IDPs in 24 woredas in Tigray received food assistance as part of the Government’s food response for 2023, with the first cycle distribution completed in August” (OCHA, 2023).

If someone says over 360,000 people are IDPs are “insignificant” than he shows the lack of heart. It shows how he values life and death in the Republic. Because, these numbers are worrying and showing how things has deteriorated in the Tigray region.

When you can be so blunt about IDPs and the amount of people. This is not mentioning the people who are in refugee camps in Sudan or elsewhere. Certainly, all of them hasn’t returned and these are the ones that was called “extremists” and “terrorists” during the war. Because, the vilification was on overload.

We are seeing the Prime Minister is playing to help former allies in Amhara. Just so they can claim Western Tigray or Wolkait or Welkait. That is the plan here. It is to give something to the ones fighting and get goodwill from Amhara region. As he is having a severe war there now. Just to show them support for their cause. If it is as easy as taking territories from the embattled Tigray region.

The ones in-charge in the Tigray Interim Regional Administration should be horrified. Because, the PM is taking away power and enforcing things out of their concern. If the referendum is enacted. The TIRA and TPLF will be hurt. Even if the local population doesn’t want it. Doesn’t mean the ballots cannot be tricked and the PM cannot give away the territories to buy “loyalty” in Amhara. That’s the end-game here and it’s so obvious, as his fighting FANO and other trained militias like the Amhara Popular Front (APF) there.

By the statement or comments by the Prime Minister the leaders of Tigray should listen. They are being outsmarted and outplayed. This is a beginning of getting your wings clipped off and you got nothing to say. As the CoHA agreement gives way to have federal army and police force in the region. Plus they can use the constitutional rights to issue a referendum. A referendum that will be smoke and mirrors to the allies of Amhara. That’s it… and it is to give way to the ones that used to be a part of the Tripartite Alliance. They are needed by the PM and he knows it. Peace.

Ethiopia: Global Society of Tigray Scholars and Professionals (GSTS) – Re: Marking the First Anniversary of hte Signing of hte cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA) and Addressing Statements from Parties to the CoHA on this Occasion (08.11.2023)

Ethiopia: Oromo Legacy Leadership and Advocacy Association (OLLAA) – Oromo Civilians continue to be Targeted by Fano Militia (07.11.2023)

Ethiopia: AfDB County Manager attacked by Security Officers…

There are widespread reports that the AfDB Group Ethiopia Country Office has suspended operations due to an attack on the Country Manager & Deputy Director General, Dr. Abdul Kamara. According to multiple news reports, Dr. Kamara was attacked by the security personnel of finance minister Ahmed Shide after Dr. Kamara questioned the Ministry of Finance about $5.2 million that was supposedly paid to AfDB, but appears to have been embezzled” (Biruk Haregu, 06.11.2023).

This here sets a bad precedence and is a sign of the times. There is only more trouble ahead and Ethiopia isn’t getting any better. Especially, when diplomatic and multi-national institutions like the Africa Development Bank County Manager is attacked and has to flee the Republic.

The Prosperity Party that needs donors and fiscal stimulus to keep the budgets a float. As the war-economy is biting and dwindling fresh funds. The FDRE needs partners and support for their development projects and in general domestic expenditure, which isn’t being covered easily these days. Therefore, the reports of an attack on the AfDB says something about the desperation of the PP at the moment.

They are willing to go down to this level of thuggery. The PP is acting vile and vicious against a supposed ally. This is a bank serving interests and finding out ways to invest in Ethiopia. That’s what the likes of AfDB does and its serves with great terms too on their loans. Therefore, to muffle and silence it… is outrageous and the other Development Banks should take note of this.

This here shouldn’t remain silent, but be loud. It shows what the state is willing to do. They can apparently just attack someone and do it easily. AfDB and no one else should worry about their safety, but apparently they need to. No one is safe and no is untouchable in the Republic. Peace.

Opinion: Abiy can go back to 1992 for a favourable agreement on the usage of the Assab or Massawa ports…

The Government signed a ports and transit services agreement with the State of Eritrea on 20 January 1992. According to the agreement, the ports of Assab and Massawa in Eritrea shall serve Ethiopia as transit ports for surface transport of goods originating from and destined for Ethiopia. It was provided in the agreement that the contracting parties shall endeavour to take all measures necessary for the expeditious movement of traffic and to avoid unnecessary transit delays of goods passing through their respective territories. The parties have agreed to simplify and harmonize transport and transit documents and procedures to facilitate the smooth flow of goods in transit. Similar agreements were signed for the road, air and communication services between the two countries” (…) “For years, Ethiopia’s foreign trade enjoyed constant access to the sea and foreign markets mainly through theports of Assab, Massawa, and Djibouti. The port of Assab, which has seven general cargo berths and well equipped handling facilities, alone handled over 75 percent of the country’s sea-borne dry cargo trade that flows via the Red Sea Corridor while Massawa and Djibouti shared the rest. Coffee, the main Ethiopian export, was mostly shipped via Assab, enjoying the preferential tariff and other advantages the port used to offer. The nation’s crude oil import is shipped in via this port and the products are distributed from there to the hinterlands by road after refinement. Petroleum products needed for use in the Eastern Regions of Ethiopia are trans-shipped through the port of Djibouti” (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development – Transit transport system in Ethiopia, 06.02.1995).

As the warning lights are going off and the Horn of Africa might seem more conflict. The warlord of Addis Ababa is never finished. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali who aren’t finished with the internal conflict in Amhara. Is trying to settle grievances in Tigray and has problematic affairs elsewhere in the Republic. That man is trying to forge another narrative and make reasons for an invasion.

An invasion of Eritrea, either for the bounds of owning ports or “Afar Unity”. Suddenly he cares about the people of Afar. The people he didn’t mind or work hard to defend when the internal war was going on in the Tigray region. That time it was the front-lines and several of zones was damaged in the Afar region. A region that was hit hard and also suffered as a consequence of the war in Tigray. They also fought and stood tall in the midst of adversity. However, now after the conflict, he suddenly cares about them and want their loyalty.

Yet, it is all for the megalomania of Abiy. He wants the prestige and greatness. No matter what agreement or favourable tariffs. That doesn’t really matter. He wants to be crowned king and be the greatest ruler. Even if he rules over dust after burning down the whole empire. He don’t mind death and massacres. Not as long as his the King and they are his peasants. That’s all that counts in the grand scheme of things.

Abiy will use Massawa and Assab as reasons for conquest. Even if it is re-starting an old conflict with Eritrea. The ownership question isn’t really that important, but he will fight over it. Just so he can be sovereign and be supreme. He will order soldiers and hope for allies to tag along. Because, he need troops and need mechanical divisions to create enough fronts to have an advantage. While he still fights in Amhara region and never been able to stagnate or silence the Oromo Liberation Army. Therefore, Abiy is going overboard and over reaching. He doesn’t have the capacity, but he don’t mind.

Abiy wants the glory and the tales that he “built” and “annexed” a Great Ethiopia. In that picture he needs a palace and access to the Red Sea. For him it doesn’t matter at what cost or consequences. No, that is just results of his orders. There are other people who will pay the price of their lives and livelihood. As long as he can stand by the waterfront and proclaim the divine power or ownership of it.

While a stranger and a random bloke would be happy for the agreements made in the past. Which favours the Ethiopian exports or imports through these ports. We know the FDRE has made agreements with Djibouti and used that as main ports for years now. However, Abiy wants to change that and have total control of it. Not just being a silent partner and a trading partner. He wants a say… even when Eritrea has allowed and accepted great terms. As this is beneficial for both nations. Peace.

Ethiopia: FDRE Government Communication Service – Statement of the Government of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia Regarding the first anniversary of the signing of hte “Agreement For Lasting Peace through a Permanent Cessation of Hostilities” (06.11.2023)

Ethiopia: Global Society of Tigray Scholars and Professionals (GSTS) – Condemning Continued Ongoing Misrepresentation and Disinformation on Human Rights Situation in Tigray by the EHRC (04.11.2023)

Eritrea: #RevealTheirNames – Supporting Bereaved Eritrean Families: Revealing the Names of Fallen Eritrean Soldiers (02.11.2023)

Ethiopia: Joint Statement by the Embassies and Mission of Australia, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Japan, The Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden and The United Kingdom – On the One Year Anniversary of the Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (02.11.2023)

Ethiopia: Tigray’s own “The Nuclear Boy” aka Mehari Yohannes reported to be in Exile…

“Those who keep asking ‘how we survive as a Republic Tigray without port, like any land-locked states, we have options to buy port service from those who own it. But if they refused to let us, well, we will see about that .…” – Mehari Yohannes, Tigray Independent Movement (15.05.2020).

It has now been reported that the political leader, the founder and the chairman of Tigray Independence Party (TIP), Mehari Yohannes is now living in exile. The reports that is online is that his currently living in India. However, nothing has been said for certainty. Though some sources say his there for “furthering education”. The reports said he left Tigray region because of the political and security challenges that it faces. Meaning he feared for his own life and livelihood.

Mehari Yohannes has been a maverick in the political spectrum. Though very little can be said about his achievements or his concrete policies. Some said his a “fortune teller” and a man who could read the “grapevine”. Regardless if that is true or not. His party haven’t achieved that much and need support together with other parties to make significant headlines.

We can with certain say that after the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement there haven’t been genuine peace and neither strides for change. The current Interim Regional Administration (IRA) have little powers and uses it stifle dissidents. Therefore, TIP and other Opposition Parties haven’t been allowed to demonstrate or protest the failure of rebuilding after the Tigray conflict. Neither has all the parties of invasion left territories or allowed things to return to normalcy. Meaning the region is hit with starvation, lack of resources and it’s basic needs after the conflict.

With that in mind, it isn’t strange that “the Nuclear Boy” left the scene. He went into safety and found a safe-haven. Where he can now spew his rhetoric and ideas over YouTube or anywhere else online. Meanwhile he don’t have to worry about getting touched or detained for his political stances.

A man whose always “Tigray First” and puts that ahead of everything else. A political leader that certainly has a following, but how big is uncertain. Not like there is level playing field or the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) have opened up the gates. Therefore, it is hard to know how popular someone really are and how big the party really is.

Alas, what we do know… is that him together with his alliances in Baytona and Salsay Weyane has been helpful. It has also made him more prominent and a voice to be reckon with.

We can just wonder how long he can sustain himself in exile and what sorts of funding that will keep him there. As a politician and a leader of a party. It cannot be easy living thousands of miles away. Especially, when the “Tigray First” and the battle for “Independence” is far away.

He who is one who has fought against and wanted the TPLF out of power for so long. While only accepting it, as long as the Tigray had more power within the EPRDF. Now that is gone… he and others hoped it was their turn.

However, the TPLF isn’t giving way and won’t go away that easily. They haven’t had power and been political savvy for decades without a reason. That’s why TIP has to be smarter and it could be costly to run away. Regardless of that, his safety does matter and so does it for everyone else.

He was lucky that he was able to flee. Other couldn’t or have no option to do so. That means he has some privilege. Which we can wonder where he got that from. Peace.