
“Look, Lord, help.
★ If there is no threat to the safety and existence of the people of Tigray, there will be no reason for us to carry arms if the armed forces outside the defense force and the invading forces leave Tigray.
★ Although efforts were made by the leaders of the Amhara region to facilitate the process of the Pretoria agreement, we were forced to stop because the Pretoria agreement itself has started to be evaluated and negotiated.
★ It is not acceptable to all parties who are trying to prevent the implementation of the Pretoria Peace Agreement, we will fight against them” (Eritrean Press, 12.11.2023).
The Tigray Interim Regional Administration (TIRA) which has been active and enacted as a part of the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA) barely a year ago. There is now speculations that the Tigray Defence Force (TDF), the force that hasn’t been incorporated into the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) or left their weapons behind. These can now get redeployed and ready for more conflict.
That’s the report here as they want to ensure the Tigray region is fully liberated. Because, the ENDF haven’t been able to get rid of the Eritrean Defence Force (EDF) or the Amhara (FANO) in Western Tigray. Therefore, the TDF are possibly getting back into warfare and joining the ENDF, which happens to be in an open conflict with FANO/Amhara Popular Front (APF) in the Amhara region.
With this in mind, the peace agreement sort of turns into a war-pact, as former adversary of Addis Ababa turns their guns on Gonder and Bahir Dar. That would be the ultimate revenge of Mekelle at this point. However, by the reports for now… it is more of taking back territories that the invading forces never left and has annexed. The same territories that the Prime Minister has opened up for a referendum, which would benefit the Amhara region and give them possibly more territories.
This will be the war of Welkait. The continues war over the Tegede, Telemt and Humera. We know after the invasion of Tigray. The Amhara region was quick to claim these territories and say it belong to them. That’s why they displaced thousands of people and ensured the villages go re-settled with Amhara settlers. Therefore, this has been a play for the long-term and now the Tigray plans to return to power there.
While the TIRA can rightfully claim Welkait, the Amhara region has the guns and the ability to stay put. If they was worried or didn’t anticipate this. They would have retreated a long time ago. Since, they know the force of the ENDF and these was the ones who was supposed to takeover after the CoHA. However, that haven’t happened and the TIRA and TDF lost face by signing the agreement. An agreement that haven’t been totally implemented or honoured by all signatories. That’s why there is possibly more conflict and this time the TDF would join the ENDF against Amhara militia and guerrilla fighters. As they are fighting for the Amhara and their own rights. It would be another chapter in changes of alliances and how fickle politics are in Ethiopia.
Under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali, it seems anyone can become an ally as long as they are useful, but the moment they are not following his whims. They can easily become his prey or his enemy, because they didn’t follow his command or his vibe that day. That’s how he operates and this is why so many of his former allies has fallen. It is why there been constant warfare and never silence of the guns.
This here would just spark further bloodshed and cause more harm. The TDF involved in a new conflict and to takeover former territories would only cause more civilian casualties. There won’t be peace and won’t be a better future. There will only be more death. Peace.
















