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A honest letter to the Ugandan President Museveni after being snubbed by the U.S. President Obama

Dear His Excellency (H.E.) President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni!

I write to you since in the recent day you got rejected to meet with the American President Barrack Obama who will visit Kenya on the 24. July 2015. This is today! And he wouldn’t meet you in Kenya!

It must be a slap on your face Mzee that your ally in America is saying “no to see you”. When he is in your neighborhood. When he steps on land in East African Community and will not see you. Your sending troops for them into Central African Republic on the goose hunt for your lost cause for so long in Northern Uganda. The famous LRA and Joseph Kony! The one man that even the American army want to get rid-off! Then they failed together with Ethiopia in Somalia where you have been charged together to fight Al-Shabab. The Americans are certainly happy that you do this and don’t cost them much compared to send their own troops.

Mzee there many reasons why President Barrack Obama is saying no to see you. He is firstly meeting Kenyan president Uhuru Kenyatta. Who is turning into Americans ally in the area of late, even if you fight wars for them and use enormous levels of resources as well, still he doesn’t expect your courtesy call. You have been in charge of Uganda since October 1986. Obama is in his last term he has been lucky to only be Head of State in the country from 2009. He is not like you a true and tested leader like you! Even if he has Nobel Peace Prize. He got before really stepping into the office.

He has also been parts of wars. You have sent your own people and now they don’t even talk to you. I am not sure is because you have latest visits abroad to any great western powers. Was to Russia and then you started to buy army equipment from them instead of American. That is sure a slap to the face or the U.S. Arms producers, the cancelling of a planned military exercises on the 19. June of 2014, because of the “Anti-Gay Bill”! Since then it’s been cold from the American government and the White House. Then you’re buying expensive military equipment for your army from Mzee Putin of Russia. It’s okay that Obama had a burger with his predecessor Medvedev. Still with the Ukraine situation and Putin back in the hot-seat the turning relationship has also hit a snag. So don’t get the possibility to eat a burger in Nairobi with Obama.

So you’re now hurt by the almighty Obama. I am sure you wished yourself was directly mediating in Burundi, instead of the Defense Minister Crispus Kiyonga.  You’re in Uganda dealing with your own election then being there looking good for the press. The sad thing for you is to see your former weapon brothers going against you like Jean Patrick Amama Mbabazi. Who is trying to take your candidacy in your own party the NRM! And even worse for you is that the man who has fought against you for so long Dr. Kizza Besigye has gotten crowds where-ever he steps and moves around in the country. And your methods of chasing the opposition like a headless chickens, don’t help you at all Mzee Museveni. You think it does, but up to the election, you just look foolish to all the pundits. You look like a weak man instead of the man who has been in power since the 80s. You have cut loose so many big men before going into power, like Gen. Oyite Ojok, Yusuf Lule, Tito Okello, Milton Obote and Idi Amin. Before that the country was in shambles and you have made in some kind of peace. You could have been a hero! If you had left after your two first terms then you have been left with a decent legacy. That’s would have been since you gave the country a constitution and peace nearly on all places. You struggled with the Northern Uganda. And still continue to pay back to SPLM and South Sudan because of their help in the area. This is not popular that for the U.S. that your involved there without an official mandate.

I am sure that there are more issues for why Barrack Obama isn’t in your presence right now Mzee Museveni. So you are not the poster-boy and future leaders of Africa in 80s and beginning of the 90s. Where you and Kagame your former allies was seen a breath of fresh air! Now you are not the one who the west looks for hope in the continent. And you wonder why? That is because history repeat itself and you have broken your own words time and time again.

I am sure it’s been fun to have over the President of Zambia Edgar Lungu. But that is no Barrack Obama and with the power of U.S. And he could help you with military equipment. Though they not doing business as the Russians and taking pieces of the future oil industry instead of money. So I am sure that hurt your pride Mr. President. But know that the party has still fractions that are loyal to you because you pay them. The leaders who showed you support after last election victory was President Mugabe of Zimbabwe, former Kenyan President Daniel Arap-Moi, the now former Kenyan President Mwai Kibaki, Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, President of South Sudan Salva Kiir and the Somali President Sheik Sharif Sheik.

But none of this can help you as the American President and honor your presence. You have run a country as long as I have lived. And to get turned down and spend time with newcomer from Zambia must be low-key moment for you. Since you have been so useful to the American government and fought the wars they don’t want to. I am sure you’re having a bad day. Though not saying it since your hurt and parts of you might wish you didn’t visit Russia last time. And you should have tried to mend up with Americans who has supported you through the 90s and 00s. That refinery has cost you and the pipeline for the oil has been dodgy as well. But you’re so close and just need another term to the Lake Albert becoming your black gold. Until then you just has to use the well-used methods of keeping people in order and follow the party line. Though this doesn’t help you with your relationship with the American Government unless you break your principle and rules. Which is sacred to you and that is understandable. The American president only has eight years to do his thing and then he is gone. You have sit eight years in power when it was 1994. By then you we’re support Kagame and the RPA in Rwanda. So the issues with America should go over. You have their old weapons and know how they call on you when they wars they don’t want to fight. So your not best buddies today, but maybe during next term if their getting a republican president in the White House he might support you, because he will only care about policy, not about who as long as he looks good during the whole deal. Tomorrow is another day Mr. President His Excellency Yoweri Kaguta Museveni! You will shine again. Believe that and by now your mustard seed should be a big plant and give a good yield. Though Dr. Kizza Besigye is stealing your crops, don’t worry people will vote for you, even if they don’t know they do! The Electoral Commission is your people, you’re safe and good. You just have to wait until the U.S. need you again. Then you will get granted to meet with the Nobel man himself. Maybe even in your own Statehouse in Entebbe.

There is reports you get a courtesy call in Ethiopia, but for a great man like you that feels like you been snubbed twice already by the American President. I am sure your hurt and tried to patch up the hurt with a meeting with the Zambian President to be the big shot in East Africa. While your neighbors president get him directly for visits. Uhuru Kenyatta the Kenyan President and also meeting with Hailemariam Desalegn Boshe the Prime Minister of Ethiopia in their homelands. While you have travel to Addis Ababa to see him for a short time and not an official visit like they are getting. And you have been their ally for decades and when they’re in your area they don’t show you respect you deserve. For God and for country!

Best Regards:

From the Writer of this blog

IMF Country Report No.15/175 on Uganda and the IMF review of the Policy Support – Quotes and Outtakes

Now I will go through how the IMF is describing the economic situation in Uganda. It will have similarities with the budget of 2015/2016. Seem like the Ministry of Finance in Uganda. The numbers and fiscal standards are exactly the same. Still I think it will good to see and give what the Western Hemisphere and the monetary organ is saying about the economy of Uganda. So that people can see the similarities and also the difference quotes from the situation.

Min Zhu the Deputy Managing Director and Acting Chair in the IMF commented on Uganda in this way:

“The economic policy mix is expected to remain focused on attaining growth and inflation Objectives” (…) “The Bank of Uganda is encouraged to remain firmly focused on the maintenance of price stability” (…) “Enacting regulations to implement the new PFM Act and a charter of fiscal responsibility, and improving cash management are critical remaining reforms. Amending the Bank of Uganda Act and enacting financial institutions legislation are key steps to further enhance central bank independence and strengthen financial resilience”.

The Executive board:

“Uganda’s recent economic performance has been favorable. Real GDP growth is projected at 5¼ percent for FY2014/15 supported by a fiscal stimulus and a recovery in Private Consumption” (…) “Economic policies in FY2014/15 have supported growth and stability objectives. The fiscal deficit is estimated at 4½ percent of GDP, below previous projections, on account of a sharp tax revenue increase” (…) “The outlook is promising. Growth is estimated at 5¾ percent in FY2015/16 and an average 6¼ percent over the medium-term, driven by scaled-up public investment and a rebound in private demand”.

The Executive Board Assessment:

“Directors stressed the need for continued fiscal discipline in the pre-electoral environment, and recommended strengthened communication with the markets” (…) “Directors welcomed the adoption of the Public Financial Management Act, and advised prompt enactment of its regulations”.

Staff report from the 12^th June 2015:

Context:

“Security concerns following unrest in neighboring countries and terrorist attacks in the region have weighed on Uganda’s spending needs, exports, and remittances. Declining donor support in reaction to concerns about governance and human rights and reduced development partners’ aid budgets have spurred domestic borrowing requirements” (…) “During a period of moderate growth, inflation has come down significantly from its 33 percent peak in 2011; and despite a decline in international reserves and a pickup in public debt, both remain at comfortable levels” (…) “The reduction in the stock of domestic arrears was smaller than targeted reflecting a decision to backload intra-year repayments, but the annual target is expected to be met. Contracting of nonconcessional borrowing (NCB) for hydropower plants (HPPs), roads, and electrification was within the $2.2 billion limit. Most end-March ITs were met” (…) “The approval of the Public Financial Management (PFM) Act in November 2014 was a major milestone, and structural benchmarks on finalizing preparation on its regulations and the Charter of Fiscal Responsibility (CFR) were observed. The Treasury Single Account (TSA) set-up has laid the stage for improved cash management although more time will be needed to eliminate movements of cash and incorporate donor accounts in the system. The submission to parliament of amendments to the Bank of Uganda (BoU) Act was postponed” (…) “the government has started the implementation of an ambitious investment package aimed at narrowing the infrastructure gap, enhancing regional integration, and preparing for oil production”.

Recent Developments:

“real GDP growth was 4½ percent in FY2013/14, driven by services, trade, construction, and manufacturing—below the estimated potential of about 6 percent” (…) “The nominal exchange rate against the US dollar appreciated by 7 percent in the year through February 2014, and since then depreciated by 20-25 percent” (…) “The real effective exchange rate appreciated by about 4 percent in 2014, mainly reflecting the weakening of Uganda’s main trading partners’ currencies” (…) “Annual core inflation fell to 2.7 percent in December 2014 and rebounded to 4.8 percent in May 2015” (…) “GDP was revised upwards by 17¼ percent in FY2009/10, the base year. The services sector and to a lesser extent the agricultural sector increased their share in GDP, while the share of industry and construction declined” (…) “Short-term benefits of the oil price decline have been less pronounced in Uganda than in other countries in the region. In the past nine months, petrol average pump prices have declined by 10 percent in domestic currency” (…) “Oil investments might be delayed in the context of lower profitability. Moreover, many interrelated investment decisions are dependent on the oil price, including granting production licenses; signing commercial and financial arrangements; developing engineering, procurement and construction plans; and agreeing on transnational infrastructure works” (…) “The current account deficit remained large owing to structurally high trade deficits. Imports of capital goods and petroleum products are increasing, while both coffee and non-coffee exports have stagnated since mid-2013 reflecting depressed food exports to South Sudan” (…) “The monetary policy transmission asymmetry is explained by the banks’ cautious focus on loan recovery and their high operating costs, coupled with some crowding out effects as government’s domestic borrowing requirements increased at that time” (…) “The number of commercial banks has increased from 14 to 25 with a large influx of foreign banks, which currently hold 80 percent of assets” (…) “the BoU kept a tight policy stance, holding the CBR constant at 11 percent from June 2014 to April 2015, and then raising it to 12 percent, on account of global developments and the ongoing and expected exchange rate pass-through. The BoU’s intervention in the foreign exchange market has been focused on its program of announced dollar purchases for reserve build-up, but in the last few months it has been intervening on the sale side to smooth the fast-paced shilling depreciation. This intervention, along with increased infrastructure-related government imports, drove reserves down from $3.2 billion in end-December to $2.9 billion in mid-May (about 4 months of imports)”.

Economic Outlooks and Risks:

“Public investment financing, alongside weaker exports and tourism receipts, will drive the current account deficit up while preserving reserves at 4 months of imports” (…) “Low consumer prices—with average core inflation projected to remain within the PSI consultation inner band at 3½ and 6¼ percent for end FY2014/15 and FY2015/16″ (…) “Slower growth in key trading partners and further spillovers from lower global liquidity could trigger capital outflows, squeezing liquidity and generating currency mismatches for banks and corporations. In the medium term, the complex commercial and legal aspects surrounding FDI in the oil sector could delay the planned investments”.

Supporting Medium-Term Growth:

“The latter has been at the center of the authorities’ economic agenda as infrastructure investments of around $11 billion—including PPPs—are expected over the next ten years” (…) “With recoverable crude oil reserves of 1.7 billion barrels out of potential reserves of 6.5 billion, oil production would start in FY2020/21 under a model that entails a crude export pipeline and a domestic refinery” (…) “Uganda ratified the Monetary Union Protocol, and has been actively participating in work to establish EAC regional institutions and to create a fiscal surveillance process” (…) “the Uganda Revenue Authority (URA) to improve enforcement and compliance, but a sustained increase in the ratio will require incorporating the large informal sector into the tax-paying portion of the economy and ensuring that large taxpayers comply with their obligations” (…) “Sustainable financial deepening will largely rely on making steady progress on financial inclusion, which will in turn depend on actions to boost the bank deposit base; enhance the intermediation role of non-bank financial institutions, including the National Social Security Fund (NSSF); and develop the money and capital markets” (…) “Staff’s debt sustainability analysis, which includes the infrastructure package as a whole, concludes that the public and publicly guaranteed external debt-to-GDP ratio in net present value (NPV) terms would peak at about 25 percent in FY2020/21. Even combined with domestic borrowing plans, total public debt would remain well below the benchmark associated with heightened vulnerabilities” (…) “The tax-to-GDP ratio in Uganda was one of the lowest in the region prior to the GDP rebasing and is definitely the lowest afterward. Over the past ten years the ratio only increased by 0.2 percentage points per year, on average” (…) “Planned improvements include URA’s efforts to assess income from rental properties and identify businesses that are accessing local services but not filing national tax returns. Use of enhanced controls and creation of a single central processing center for all customs clearances should boost customs revenue” (…) “EAC convergence criteria, Uganda has targeted a tax-to-GDP ratio of 25 percent by 2021”(…) “Social protection in Uganda is entrenched in the Constitution, Vision 2040 and the NDP II. Interventions have nonetheless been limited and fragmented—with only 0.4 percent of GDP a year devoted to direct income support and 1.2 percent of GDP to total social protection”.

Maintaining Fiscal restraint while raising Public Investment:

“The overall deficit increased by 2 percent of GDP between FY2011/12 and FY2014/15” (…) “The overall deficit is projected to increase by an additional 2½ percentage points by FY2017/18 fueled by a continued expansion in capital spending (3¾ percentage points) and a small increase in current spending (¼ percentage point), and curtailed by a further improvement in revenues of at least ½ percent of GDP each year” (…) “the supplementary budget used part of the windfall revenue and expenditure savings to cover operational shortfalls at several ministries, and Electoral Commission outlays, among other pressing needs. All in all, the overall fiscal deficit is now projected to reach 4½ percent of GDP (6¾ percent in the program) and issuances of securities in the domestic market should remain within the target” (…) “The FY2015/16 budget will increase the overall fiscal deficit to 7 percent of GDP largely financed by NCB on favorable terms” (…) “The contingency provision was reduced by 0.2 percent of GDP at the time of budget approval to facilitate one-off spending on police activities linked to the election and allowances to parliamentarians, leaving little budget flexibility and requiring prudent execution in the year ahead”.

Protecting the Inflation objective:

“Some challenges remain, including insufficient institutional arrangements to prevent government’s use of deposits in BoU accounts beyond agreed levels, and shortcomings in inflation forecasting capabilities and fiscal-monetary policy coordination” (…) “Given the high share of imported goods in the CPI, import prices play a key role in inflation behavior, with an estimated pass-through factor of 0.4–0.5” (…) “The BoU has taken steps to reduce volatility in overnight market rates by allowing all banks (previously only primary dealers) to access BoU operations”.

Securing a more effective contribution of the Financial Sector to Growth:

“The BoU does not stress test banks’ resilience to lending rate hikes because of insufficient data availability” (…) “High dollarization. 37 percent of deposits and 43 percent of loans are denominated in foreign currency” (…) “banks’ business models, with a large share of assets devoted to investments in Treasury bills, reflect cautious risk taking, as well as curtailed policy predictability given the large swings in interest rates, thus jeopardizing credit growth”.

Building Institution and improving the Business Environment:

“Core fiscal targets: These targets are based on the EAC convergence criteria, and consist of an overall deficit target of 3 percent of GDP by FY2020/21 and an annual debt ceiling of 50 percent of GDP in NPV terms”.

Staff Appraisal:

“That fiscal policy decisions will be strictly aligned to the budget is essential to influencing banks’, corporations’, and households’ behavior. Even more critical, however, is that policy implementation adheres to the budget to build a track record of fiscal discipline during pre-electoral periods and preserve the economic objectives”.

Afterthought:

Can you believe it and how the inflation numbers together with the borrowing are not totally the same, that is for the reason that the Budget Deficit has been set by the government of Uganda is on the size of the yearly budget instead of the GDP as the IMF they set it there, the number will significant better and also smaller. Still, the Yearly Review which was ‘Value for Money’ told the same, even if the number will be different next year from URA and Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MoFPED) will hopefully drop similar numbers next time. Since the numbers for deficit are going up and also the loans because of missing donor money. While waiting for the money from the Oil Development. Still, wait for how the budget year 2015/2016 will go. Peace.

How the Implementation of the IMF Policy Support is going:  

Letter from the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MoFPED) to the IMF:

Reference:

International Monetary Fund – IMF Country Report No. 15/175: STAFF REPORT FOR THE 2015 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION AND FOURTH REVIEW UNDER THE POLICY SUPPORT INSTRUMENT—PRESS RELEASE; STAFF REPORT; AND STATEMENT BY THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR FOR UGANDA (July 2015).

Joint Communique – 10th Northern Integration Project Summit (Kampala, Uganda 06.06.2015)

Joint Communique: 9th Northern Corridor Integration Projects Summit