Gogonyo County By-Election: The NRM is soon winning on “walk-over” here…

The NUP candidate Mr Joseph Okoboi Opolot announced in a press release dated August 7 that he is pulling out of the race in the forthcoming by-election of Gogonyo County in Palisa District. A few days ago, FDC withdrew its candidate in favour of NUP. NRM’s candidate Orone Derrick who has been the incumbent MP is almost unopposed with the withdrawal of his major rivals” (Emmanuel Busingye – ‘BREAKING: NUP Gogonyo candidate bows out of race’ 07.08.2022, Ekyooto.co.uk).

The 11th August 2022 can just appear in Gogonyo County By-Election, by all means the results are already appearing and announcement is pure victory of the National Resistance Movement (NRM). Some are already saying that the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) shouldn’t have trusted the National Unity Platform (NUP). However, it wasn’t long ago that the FDC barely could have a candidate in the Omoro By-Election after the NRM pulled a similar stunt on their first candidate there. So, the FDC should know this game and understand the trickery that the NRM is pulling.

It is tragic that this is happening in Palisa district. The election is now barren and close to pointless. The NRM is as close as running unopposed and has no real competition. The NRM could just be sworn-in and be a part of the 11th Parliament now. Especially after the late pull-out of the NUP Flag-bearer.

The joint candidacy of the opposition is meant as a good way of organizing the campaigns and strengthen the parties ahead of the polls. Since, the NRM uses the state machinery and the authorities to ensure victory. The elections are hallow and so barren of democratic principals. That the idea is well founded and shows unity. Alas, it also has a backside when the NRM and the authorities are able to corrupt their candidates.

The FDC saw what happened with the self-abducted original flag-bearer in the Omoro County By-Election. So, let us not forget about the tales of Denis Dickson Owani this quickly. Just as he “escaped” and the FDC was able to field a substitute. The authorities and the NRM was able to pull this off much later… which means the NUP and FDC isn’t capable of replacing Opolot either. That’s the tragic thing here.

The NUP is at fault to not ensure total loyalty to the cause and that he would properly stand for election. However, the same greed that ate Owani has now corrupted Opolot. That is the gist of it here.

That gives way for Derrick Orone who is contesting for the same seat for the second time in two years and this time around he has practically no real competition. This means that this By-Election is already cooked and ready to be served. Peace.

A Joint Opposition ahead of the next By-Elections…

The way to get back our power is to unite all of us and the population to be rallied together. Once that happens, I’m very excited that I can see it now beginning to happen. Even if we said that let all of us do this, this regime has no capacity to stop it” – Dr Kizza Besigye (01.08.2022).

Today there was a real launch of a joint opposition ahead of the next elections. This was a mix of various parties and formations. The main ones are the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) and National Unity Platform (NUP). The other parties was the People’s Progressive Party (PPP), Justice Forum (JEEMA) and the DP Block. While the People’s Front for Transition (PFT) and People Power Movement (PPM).

This is the first one that is like this since the Democratic Alliance (TDA).The TDA have been shaky and most of the members there has ended up in the arms of the regime.

The TDA isn’t the only joint opposition ahead of an election. In 2011 the opposition went ahead with a coalition called the Inter-Party Cooperation (IPC). In 2020 the FDC and NUP created the United Forces of Change (UFC).

Today we are seeing a new front with a lot more parties and formations behind it. That could strengthen the cause. We have already seen the NUP and FDC supporting a joint candidate in the Soroti East By-Election in the Moses Attan there. The new Press Conference and Joint Statement shows not only sentiment, but a plan for the parties ahead.

This country is bigger than our political parties. The mission is bigger than building our political parties. In any case, one would argue that there are no political parties in Uganda because we do not operate like political parties” (Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, 01.08.2022).

The Joint Statement is stating the plan ahead:

Going forward, we shall jointly or severally use any upcoming elections to organise and rally the population to defend their democratic rights and end the election ‘madness’ that has bedeviled our country since independence” (Joint Statement, 01.08.2022).

It will be interesting to see it happening in the upcoming by-elections. The opposition is showing a united force and its needed. The messages from the leaders is as important. Because, the parties and formations are pledging to work together.

The ruling regime and the National Resistance Movement (NRM) have been met with similar coalitions before, but this time around there is no direct or former NRM who will leave the fold quickly. The ones that has left the NRM did it so long ago… that it seems impossible for a return.

This statement comes days after the NRM-DP Cooperation Agreement and the previous election agreement between NRM-UPC. Therefore, this time around the Joint Opposition has to prove it. As the NRM is purging and trying to convince the opposition of working with them.

The Joint Opposition have to show it and also ensure they field the best candidates. They have to show the malpractice and undermine the election rigging. In such a manner, that the NRM cannot live with it or even announce the results. The opposition has to show fierce methods and not only play to the rules of the state. Opposition cannot just participate, but prove everything wrong with the regime.

Time will tell if this will work. The ambition and sentiment behind is commendable. I am hope it does make a difference. Not only a Press Conference and a Statement. The people have to see it and the parties and formations have to show it. Peace.

Uganda: Joint Statement of Political Leaders, Parties and Formations against the Brazen Thuggery of Elections in Uganda as Exemplified in the By-Elections of Kayunga, Omoro and Soroti (01.08.2022)

Opinion: The Bukimbiri County and Busongora County South By-Elections is up next…

After Omoro and Soroti East By-Elections this year. The National Resistance Movement (NRM) will not back-down. Don’t expect these By-Elections to be anything better. The NRM uses all means to “win” and pyrrhic victories is their vibe.

The same will be the case on the 11th August in Bukimbiri County in Kisoro Distric and on the 18th August Busongora County South in Kasese District. That’s only about two or three weeks from now. People are already shattered and seen the means to an end from the NRM. They don’t mind using military means, mass-arresting and ordering the military to intimidate the people. The NRM doesn’t care about ballot-stuffing, pre-ticked ballots or ferrying voters. No, everything goes as long as their Member of Parliament is elected. That is what the previous By-Elections has shown.

The Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) can field a candidate in both elections here. The National Unity Platform (NUP) as well. It doesn’t matter who the Alliance for National Transformation (ANT) or Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) either. The FDC has big chances in Kasese, as that has been their stronghold in that region, but we saw how much that mattered in Teso sub-region. The machinery and the state will just assault its way to power. It doesn’t matter what the will of the people or what the people wants to vote. The predetermined minds of the State House and the NRM CEC matters more.

After what we have seen, the FDC and the other opposition parties can field candidates. These candidates do an honest campaign and be canvassing votes in the constituency. We know that the FDC, NUP and ANT will field candidates in Bukimbiri County. However, after what we have seen in Omoro and Soroti East that this doesn’t really matter. The NRM will ensure their MPs get elected and they will not spare on anything. They will use money, promise the heavens and rig the polls. That’s what they do and people should know that.

The opposition could have the best candidates, heck they could have saviour and a grand peacemaker. The person would still lose, because the NRM would use all their tools to get ahead. They don’t mind to arrest, detain and silence the opposition. The NRM can use the army and the police force for their winning. That has been shown and the soldiers will be there too. This is the only way the NRM can “win” an election in 2022.

We need to expect more mass-arrests and more agony. The NRM and the current regime will not allow a proper election to be held. Because, if the NRM and the Electoral Commission held that. They would risk to lose to a nobody or an unknown person from another party. That’s because the public is tired of the NRM and this is why they fear the voice of the people. They wouldn’t dare to do an honest election. For a simple reason: They don’t trust the judgement of the people and that’s why they have to decide for them.

We should expect shambolic affairs… elections filled with malpractice and intimidation. Voting bribery, voter ferrying and pre-ticked ballots. All of it will be used. That’s why the persons on the ballots doesn’t really matter. The ones on the Yellow Bus and part of the NRM will have an advantage the others cannot conquer. The only way they can do that is if the public storms the tally-centres and reacts to the open rigging of the regime.

However, I wouldn’t count on it. The usage of the army, police and high ranking officials to rig the elections. Will strike fear to the public and make them feel indifference. The elections has no real purpose. As it is only a ceremonial waiting-game for the announcement of the NRM Flag-bearer for MP. Peace.

Soroti East By-Election: “The game is rigged, man”

This game is rigged, man. We like the little bitches on a chessboard” Preston “Bodie” Brodaus (S4:E13 – ‘Final Grades’, 2006).

The Soroti East By-Elections on the 28th July 2022 was a shambolic affair. The authorities, the Electoral Commission and the National Resistance Movement (NRM) didn’t even conceal their actions and intentions. The mass-arrests, intimidation and use of force was the reason for the “victory” for the NRM Flag-Bearer Herbert Edmund Ariko. He was in the evening of the 28th July announced as the victor with a “small” margin, but everyone who follows knows the drill.

The NRM with the usage of the state machinery came with pre-ticked ballots. The NRM Electoral Commission Chairman Dr. Tanga Odoi was an active part of the rigging in Soroti. Other that participated was the newly “elected” MP Andrew Ojok Oulanyah. He was “elected” in the same manner in his constituency. Now, Ariko follows suit and they shouldn’t celebrate this. Because it is a mess and a fraudulent affair.

The NRM will take this a celebration and speak of their popularity. However, everyone with some working marbles knows the gist. The mass-arrests of opposition leaders and the deployment of opposition polling agents who was arrested to sign of declaration forms from the polling stations. So, the whole affair was shady and the “victory” can be seen as shallow.

The MP for Soroti East By-Election is now rigged into the 11th Parliament. The NRM doesn’t believe in their pledges, promises or campaign. Since they needs to use force, intimidation and trick the polls to get ahead. Their candidate is so bad and lacking influence that ghosts, goats and ferried voters voted for him. The pre-ticked ballots are proof of that and the EC validated it all.

This is was a deliberate act. The mass-arrests just proves it all. The authorities even arrested the main opposition candidate from the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) Moses Attan Okia who was detained after voting himself. It just shows the process and how the state was at work. The same with any sort of political leader in the FDC and also went after elected leadership from the Uganda People’s Congress (UPC). Therefore, the authorities stoke at everyone. They even raided a home of one MP and went after the tires of another one. It was nothing they were not willing to do.

The Soroti East By-Election is just a proof that the NRM doesn’t believe in their own candidates anymore. They need to use force and fake themselves into power. If the NRM didn’t have the power and the authorities behind them. This wouldn’t have happened. They are not having elections, but a selection for their own will. Just proving a point and taking the people for fools.

Hon. Ariko was elected by ghosts and ferried voters. His not voted by the Soroti East constituents. He didn’t have the confidence or the bravery to allow their will to happen. That’s why he accepted the pre-ticked ballots and the use of bravado from the authorities to silence the opposition on the election day. This is why he should question himself, but like many in the NRM. He is just giddy for the cash, perks and be anointed into Parliament.

Soroti East By-Election is just another of these where the state doesn’t spare anything to win. Even if the “victory” is only because of the usage of all parts of the government structure. The NRM would never have been able to do this. If they weren’t in government and didn’t have the final say in everything that matters. If the NRM was in opposition and felt the blunt force. They would have cried havoc.

We know that, because that is how the NRM was incepted in the 1980s election. Which the President has cried out loud about ever since. He is now ushering in similar elections and even worse ones. Where the state is just creating pyrrhic victories, because everyone knows the gist.

The game is rigged and Bodie was right. Peace.

Soroti East By-Election: Return Form for Transmission of Results (28.07.2022)

Soroti East By-Election: East Kyoga Regional Police Cautions the Public against Electoral Guidelines and Laws (28.07.2022)

Soroti East By-Election: Mass-arrest of Opposition leaders and polling agents as the people heads for the polls

The authorities, the state and everyone involved is going after the opposition ahead of the polls in the Soroti East By-Election. Last night the Police did raid the home of Anna Adeke MP. There will be a follow up to what is going on, but anyone with a working marble should know that the state is preparing everything for the National Resistance Movement (NRM) to win. That is the initial plan here and to do it in darkness. As the opposition and their organizers are behind bars as the polls are happening.

This is done to stop Moses Attan and the FDC Flag-Bearer from winning this election. The NRM does what it does to “win”. While using the authority of the state and arresting opposition ahead of the polls. They clearly don’t believe in their pledges, their program and their candidate Herbert Ariko. If they did… they wouldn’t need to arrest a village to elect a man in a By-Election.

What is also striking is that opposition candidate Moses Attan did vote in the election, but himself was arrested right after. That just shows the intention of the state and they not even trying to conceal it. While there reports that Andrew Ojok Oulanyah MP have come with pre-ticked ballots to a polling station, beat up a polling agent and stuffed the ballots in the box. It just shows what the NRM does to “win”.

Here is some of the news.

The FDC has dropped a full list of the arrest as of now:

PARTIAL LIST OF FDC LEADERS ARRESTED IN SOROTI BY ELECTION

1. Hon. Eng. Patrick Oboi Amuriat, Party President

2. Hon. William Nzoghu, Deputy President

3. Hon. Centenary Robert, Mobilizer

4. Hon. Nyanjura Doreen, Deputy Lord Mayor and NEC member

5. Micheal Emorut -Poa driver

6.Augustine Ojobile,Deputy Chief Administrative Officer

7.Omer Paul, Mayor Soroti East Division

8. Denis Nono

9.Oboi Rajab

10.Elenyu John Calvin

11.Okwi Justine kokas

12.Kassim Ogwang-PA to Hon.Attan

13.Jafar -Attan driver

14.Ojakol Moses

15.Eigu Daniel-Chairpersons FDC Soroti

16.Acen Jane

17.Wanyera Simon

18. Mama Kevin -Opuyo coordinator

19.Erongu Moses

20.David Eguru

22.Ekou Robert

22.Edatu Joseph

23. Donge Pius

24. Okwii Emmanuel

25.Ramazan Rajab

26.Erwau

27. Kakeeto William

28.Counsel Buyondo Henry Patrick

29.Hakim Bukenya

30. Ms.Wokuri Madanda

31.Turyatemba Norman

32.Darlington Baryabarema Western Coordinator

33. Joan FDC Eastern Coordinator

34.Chagga Oyat.

This is a partial list of those we have confirmed, others we have not been able to reach out. This operation was commanded by an ordinary hired goon Karangwa from Jinja/Kayunga &Ssegujja.

It’s appalling that Commissioners of Police, RPC,&DPC’s are getting instructions from these goons who have taken over security in Soroti. All men save for women, were driven to Dokolo CPS” (Forum for Democratic Change, 28.07.2022).

Some says with the polling agents and mobilizers of the FDC for the election day. The numbers of arrests are already up to around 70 people. That says what the state is doing to get their MP elected in the Soroti East By-Election.

Capital FM has these reports in addition:

Voting at Omalera mango tree polling station in Soroti East Division has been stopped over alleged ballot stuffing. Four suspects said to be NRM supporters ferried from Kumi and Bukedea districts have been arrested” (…) “NRM electoral commission chairman, Tanga Odoi has been confronted by angry voters at Omalera polling station where some suspects were arrested over ballot stuffing during Soroti East Division parliamentary by-election” (Capital FM Uganda, 28.07.2022).

So, this will be followed up and monitored. This election is an disgrace and just follows an pattern of the state. Who is willing to use all force to “win” and create a “war-zone” to ensure victory. Even when it is far from the truth, but that’s what it does. The NRM cannot win an honest election. They got to use the Police and the state authority to get their people elected. Peace.

Opinion: Revisiting the TDA [and where are they now?]

5. The goal of The Democratic Alliance shall be achieved through the pursuance of the following objectives:

a) Building the necessary mobilization capabilities and organizational infrastructure of the Alliance and its members in order to win power;

b) Developing and presenting a common policy and governance agenda for elections;

c) Ensuring the attainment of an electoral majority by fielding candidates for all electoral positions across the country;

d) Fielding of joint candidates for electoral offices as set out in this Protocol;

e) Constituting a Transitional Government of National Unity (TGNU) with the purpose of implementing appropriate political and economic reforms to build a strong and durable foundation for democracy, rule of law and economic justice” (Protocol of the Democratic Alliance, June 2015).

Because of the recent cooperation agreement between the Democratic Party (DP) and the National Resistance Movement (NRM). This has started questions about the legitimacy of the coalition that was one part of the opposition ahead of the General Elections in 2016. It is striking that this is happening now and it’s worth to look into what has happened ever since.

The TDA was a coalition made by a various set of parties. The two parties that directly went out of the coalition early was Uganda Peoples Congress (UPC) and the Forum for Democratic of Change (FDC). However, the others stayed behind and they went ahead to stand behind the former Prime Minister and Secretary General of the NRM, Amama Mbabazi. He became the Joint Presidential Candidate of the TDA and the Pressure Group of “Go Forward”.

The TDA was much larger than Mbabazi alone. It was the Conservative Party (CP), Democratic Party (DP), Justice Forum (JEEMA), Pressure for National Unity (PNU), People’s Progressive Party (PPP) and Uganda Federal Alliance (UFA). So, there were a handful of leaders in and around the TDA. There was also Olara Otunnu from the UPC and Dr. Kizza Besigye from the FDC. The UPC as a party left, but Otunnu stayed on, if I remember correctly.

The leaders who are vital part of TDA was Amama Mbabazi, Ken Lukyamuzi, Norbert Mao, Asuman Basalirwa, Beti Kamya, Gilbert Bukenya aka Mahogany and Dick Odur. There was also others associated and part of the proceedings like Mugisha Muntu and others. Therefore, it was a team of the opposition at the time who at certain points did their part here.

However, as time has shown us. Plenty of these people has sided with the NRM or returned to the NRM. The Presidential Flag-Bearer Mbabazi was a NRM Member and hadn’t revoked his membership as he was standing up against Museveni. So, that he returned and is in the good graces with the President is just natural. The stage of Go Forward was only a short sighted project and was over the moment the election was over.

Bukenya has also returned and is living the good life. His living large and having perks with titles and being part of the elite. The Former Vice President has no worries and was only for a minute or less an “opposition”. I doubt we will ever see anything of the PNU ever again.

Mao has just become the Minister of Justice and Constitutional Affairs. His working in cooperation with the government. Still part of the DP but he has a hectic period ahead of him. As insiders in the party wants him out and ousted. Since, this agreement wasn’t signed of from the party or the members. The DP Block has even dismissed him too.

Kamya has gone from being appointed Minister of Kampala. To lose her leadership of her party the UFA. Later becoming a NRM Member and changing Ministry. Now she’s the IGG but certainly not electable or viable candidate. She has become a typical crony of Museveni over the years.

Basalirwa has been close to the People Power Movement and the National Unity Platform. He has ensured popularity and gotten elected into Parliament as the only JEEMA MP. Therefore, his the first man here who is actual opposition from the TDA still.

Lukyamuzi has on the other hand lost his constituency and not become a third time re-elected to Rubaga South MP. He instead focused on finishing his degree, which he did in 2017. The Party President and former MP has been a vocal critic of the government. Even made a case against the Age Limit in the courts, which was dismissed. So, he is an actual man in the opposition. “The Man” is true to his missions and his goals.

Otunnu has been resigned from politics. He also lost the Party Presidency. The UPC has since then signed a secret agreement with the NRM. That’s why the UPC haven’t fielded a Presidential Candidate for two elections in a row. Otunnu has kept himself in the background and you can wonder if he will resurface or do anything for that matter.

Muntu also lost the Party Presidency. He lost to another candidate within the FDC. This made him create a New Formation, which is now known as the Alliance for National Transformation (ANT). That party was launched in time for the 2021 General Elections and he ran as President.

Besigye ran a the Presidential Flag-Bearer for the FDC and created the People’s Government after swearing himself in after the General Elections in 2016. Since then he has launched several of campaigns and the latest after the 2021 elections is the Red Card Front. A voice of the opposition still.

There are several of other leaders who are in the opposition that was a part of the TDA in 2015/2016. These could be Mathias Mpuuga (former DP now NUP), Betty Nambooze (former DP now NUP) and so fourth. There are more people that has been involved and could be mentioned, but that would make this piece to long.

However, a huge pattern are still there. Plenty of the TDA high ranking leadership went either back to NRM or has found a home in government. That is really happening on a larger scale. We shouldn’t be surprised that Mbabazi and Bukenya went back home. However, the others should really be questioned…

This was a short revising of the TDA. An alliance built quickly and seemingly destroyed. It wasn’t meant to be. We shouldn’t expect the Go Forward or the PNU to be returning either. The era of the TDA is gone and it’s for a reason. The TDA was built on sand and not on mountain. If it had been real and a sincere enterprise. So many of these leaders wouldn’t have sought shelter under the wings of the man who they were promised to create a Transitional Government of National Unity (TGNU).

Obviously… things didn’t pan out, but it is a picture, which shows how the times are changing. Peace.

Soroti East By-Election: Today Besigye acted like fugitive to attend a FDC rally in Soroti

Besigye beats heavy security to escape arrest in Jinja. Besigye moved out of his vehicle and entered the cafe before accessing Kyabazinga road, where he jumped on a boda boda which was seen heading towards Iganga” (Rukiga FM, 24.07.2022).

UPDATE: After a failed attempt by police to stop Dr. Kizza Besigye from going to Soroti earlier today in Jinja, Besigye has found his way to Soroti City East to rally votes for the FDC candidate Attan Moses” (NBS Television, 24.07.2022).

Today should have been about the rallies, the messages and the appearance of popularity for Moses Attan in the Soroti East By-Election. By now the stories are instead focusing on Dr. Kizza Besigye and how the road-blocks around the location where Besigye was eating breakfast in Jinja. The authorities put up road-blocks and tried to arrest the politician as he was planning to participate in the rally ahead of the polls.

However, Besigye had to act like a fugitve. Besigye acted like a man on the run and couldn’t even use his own vehicle. Because, his SUV is now monitored and the movements are certainly followed. If they weren’t following him… why would they know where he was eating and he had to sneak himself away from there?

That is every evident and striking. Besigye have done sort of thing before. Been able to skip through road-blocked and sealed off streets to make a public appearance. Therefore, this isn’t groundbreaking of any sorts. It is however tragic that he has to resort to this.

Whe new are saying Besigye is never really free. It is because of things like this. He is either arrested, whisked away or kept incommunicado. Secondly, taken away for days and detained before arraigned in court. Where a sort of charge and possibly heavy bail conditions are set on him. That’s what is regular and modus operandi of the state.

Besigye knows all of this and that’s why he has to change his plan out of nowhere. Today he did that and people shouldn’t cheer or be happy about this. It just proves that the man doesn’t have the liberty or freedom to participate or be an active politician. Besigye aren’t allowed or is a target for just being who he is. There was nothing illegal in his movements or planned efforts today. His just another FDC leader who is inspiring others.

The authorities are just proving what we have been saying all along. The state is going after its critics and the ones who is dissidents. That is what it does and Besigye happens to be one of them. One of the most vocal voices of reason and that’s why the state fears him. That’s why they are targeting him and going after him in this way.

However, today we shouldn’t cheer that he was able to escape arrest in Jinja. He shouldn’t have had to flee or act as a fugitive in the first place. Besigye should have been able to travel and return from Soroti safely without any trouble or sort of adventurous journey. No, this is just showing the priorities of the state and who they seek to incriminate. Peace.