The Zimbabwe African National Union – Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) are really trying to forge the narrative and the story on their monetary policy. As the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) and their Governor dropped the Policy, while the nation is busy finding out when to mourn its previous President Mugabe.
In the midst of this, the RBZ could have been upfront and shown the reality, but instead it coming up with some steps and half-baked solutions, which will not generate trust for the financial institution nor the economy itself. As it soon releasing a new national currency on the back of the RTGS Dollar and Bond-Notes. We are the half-way to hell or heaven, but surely most likely on a ride of hyper-inflation and the state doesn’t want say so.
“Notwithstanding these measures, annual inflation escalated from about 5.39 percent in September 2018 to 175.5 percent in June 2019, mainly reflecting the exchange rate price indexation in an environment of high premiums in the parallel market” (…) “The country is moving towards bringing inflation under control and lowering it over time after the initial burst of high inflation that followed from the liberalisation of the exchange rate” (Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe – ‘2019 MID TERM MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT’ 13.09.2019).
Trading Economics reports: “Consumer Price Index Cpi in Zimbabwe increased to 208.90 Index Points in July from 172.60 Index Points in June of 2019.”
In counter to the RBZ, the forecast is: “Consumer Price Index Cpi in Zimbabwe is expected to be 208.33 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Consumer Price Index Cpi in Zimbabwe to stand at 319.31 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Zimbabwe Consumer Price Index Cpi is projected to trend around 322.34 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models”.
Comesa reported: “Zimbabwe recorded the highest year on year inflation rate of (+ 257.2 %)” (COMESA – ‘HCPI – COMESA Monthly News Release I s s u e N o . 96 J u l y 2 0 1 9).
With these statements alone, shows that the economy isn’t stabilizing, neither is it becoming better. The Forecasts are tragic, the rising inflation is spiralling out of control again. Like it has done in 2008. It is a decade later and the RBZ and Ministry of Finance haven’t learned. The Zanu-PF and its handlers things they can play this one out. But the inflation rising is at hyper-inflation levels.
That the RBZ didn’t want to address the vast difference between inflation rate in September 2018 to what is happening in July 2019. And the RBZ only shown the levels of June, but not July, which is a very weird. As the all numbers should be there. Since the 208% July numbers shows, that the RBZ and Ministry of Finance isn’t stabilizing it, as it went up from 172% in June. The forecast, which is speculated, as it has models on the possible outcome. Zimbabwe might end up with up to 319% in 12 months time. This means by July 2020 the hyper-inflation is persistent and continuing to worsening the situation.
The RBZ should be truthful about it. However, it seems to spread another message. Which seems like they don’t care about the reality or denying it to save face. Peace.
Well, it is about that time. I am tired of reading the propaganda peddled against the sanctions in the Republic of Zimbabwe. That is a continuation of the ones put on the regime of Robert Mugabe and prolonged under the new dispensation of President Emmerson Mnangagwa. Both of them are acting the same way, but thinks that the West and the donor nations will look the other way.
Just as the ZANU-PF using the same methods of silencing opposition, arresting civil society leaders, creating more harder laws for gatherings and also crippling the economy on their own. While the President and his elite is living lavish on the public’s dime. Hoping someone else will cover the bills for the procurement of needed food, supplies and also running the government in general.
I am first showing the reason why the US is having sanctions, than the EU before why the SADC want it away. Before I settle it briefly after. Because to be repetitive is boring, even in 2019.
“The Zimbabwe sanctions program implemented by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (“OFAC”) began on March 7, 2003, when the President issued Executive Order (“E.O.”) 13288. E.O. 13288 imposed sanctions against specifically identified individuals and entities in Zimbabwe, as a result of the actions and policies of certain members of the Government of Zimbabwe and other persons undermining democratic institutions or processes in Zimbabwe. Following E.O. 13288, in response to the continued undermining of democratic institutions, the President issued two subsequent Executive orders that expanded the list of sanctions targets to include immediate family members of any person whose property and interests in property are blocked as well as those persons providing assistance to any such individual” (OFAC – ‘ZIMBABWE SANCTIONS PROGRAM’18.12.2013).
“The EU is not imposing economic or trade sanctions against Zimbabwe. The EU shares the opinion expressed by a number of international organisations whereby the main cause of the serious social and economic crisis which Zimbabwe is experiencing should be sought in inappropriate economic policies, the manner in which the land reform has been carried out, the drought and the HIV/AIDS pandemic;” (…) “the measures adopted by the EU, as a result of the break down of the rule of law and human rights abuses, are the freezing of personal assets of senior members of government and other high-ranking officials, the prevention of the same to travel to EU Member States and the embargo on the sale of arms. None of these measures could affect or cause any hardship to the Zimbabwean population” (EU – ‘POSITION OF THE EUROPEAN UNION ON SANCTIONS AGAINST ZIMBABWE’ August 2019).
“Summit noted the adverse impact on the economy of Zimbabwe and the region at large, of prolonged economic sanctions imposed on Zimbabwe, and expressed solidarity with Zimbabwe,and called for the immediate lifting of the sanctions to facilitate socio-economic recovery in the country” (SADC – ‘COMMUNIQUE OF THE 39THSADC SUMMIT OF HEADS OF STATE AND GOVERNMENT JULIUS NYERERE INTERNATIONAL CONVENTION CENTRE DAR ES SALAAM, UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA – 17 August – 18 August 2019).
You can easily see why the US and EU continues and prolongs it. As the New Dispensation and the new head of state is acting as much as the previous ones. There is no change and the inflation is also spiralling out of control too. But that is the fault of either the sanctions, MDC or anyone putting negative connotations towards the ZANU-PF. That is the reason for all the trouble.
Not that the ones that ruling the Republic is continuing to do what the predecessor was doing. These actions that ensured that the West put sanctions on Zimbabwe in the first place. This are not even for the economic or financial implosion, but targeted at the leadership and the elites who are going against the public. The ones that is violating the public, human rights violations and the bad-track record, which is very familiar way of ZANU-PF.
So, if the ZANU-PF and their handlers claim the sanctions are hitting the economy. It hits the economy of the elites and not the public. It is the ones whose in-charge of the lack of rule of law and also the ones who are doing the human rights violations. Therefore, it is a lie that the EU and US sanctions are going to the whole system.
What the SADC and ZANU-PF want is to free their liabilities, the persons sanctioned and their companies. Not freeing the economy or stopping the hardship of the people, if they wanted that directly. Than they wouldn’t have given the EU and US a reason to sanction the leadership of ZANU-PF in the first place and repeating the same actions. Peace.