Houses of the Oireachtas August report explaining the grand-issues remaining between Ireland and NI because of the Brexit!

Taoiseach Enda Kenny, speaking in Brussels on the 2nd of March 2017 said, “the Good Friday Agreement contains the opportunity to put in these negotiations language that has already been agreed in internationally binding agreement, that at some future time were that position to arise, that if the people by consent were to form a united Ireland that that could be a seamless transfer as happened in the case of East Germany and West Germany when the Berlin Wall came down.” (Houses of the Oireachtas, P: 248, 2017).

There must be times that the ones who voted for Brexit must regret it. Since the challenges and consequences are now unraveling. The House of the Oireachtas has come with an extensive report. That you should read yourself to get the deepness of the issues and the wishes of the Republic of Ireland, who in dept hope that Northern Ireland and Ireland get reunited like Germany did in the 1990s. There are more the things to look into, like the clear deficit between the United Kingdom, the Northern Ireland and Republic.

The are other issues like the border, which will be a genuine issue for both United Kingdom, European Union, the Member State Ireland and the nation within United Kingdom Northern Ireland. That the border, with the movement of trade, people and all other co-operations. Not just immigration with the Irish, who can pass and who has to apply between the borders of Northern Ireland towards Ireland. It will require direct borders on the crossings and also visas. Not only economical pressure because of the Brexit, but all the other grand issues.

Northern Irish Deficit:

The theoretical question of the Northern Ireland contribution to the EU through the UK annual contribution and a subsequent financial benefit from ending those contributions is a moot one. The deficit in Northern Ireland is such that any theoretical contribution is in fact made with money borrowed from central government. The Northern Ireland deficit (confining the spending definition rather generously as identifiable spending under the block DEL grants plus Annual Managed Expenditure) is 15% of GVA versus a UK budget deficit of 3.4% (in 2016). Given the UK Treasury intends to have a surplus in the next parliament, along with the potential for a large final exit bill and the threat to tax revenues, should Brexit cause an economic slowdown any benefit from ending the UK contributions to the EU is likely to be small if at all and for Northern Ireland will be irrelevant. Therefore, for Northern Ireland to be net neutral after Brexit the UK government will have to sponsor all current EU programmes” (Houses of the Oireachtas, P: 40, 2017).

United Kingdom, Republic of Ireland – Hard Border:

However, a memo from the European parliament’s legal affairs committee, which is helping shape the negotiating position of the European commission and the red lines of the European parliament, rebuffs that suggestion: “The [Good Friday] agreement makes it abundantly clear that the fact that both parts of Ireland and the UK are within the EU is a basis for the agreement. Moreover, the fact that Brexit could result in the reintroduction of border controls and controls on the free movement of persons between Ireland and Northern Ireland means this is a question for the EU, and not only Ireland and the UK.” (…) “Historically, customs controls have operated on both sides of the border from 1923 until their abolition on 1 January 1993, when the EU Single Market came into effect. In addition, security checkpoints operated on both sides of the border during the Troubles, from 1970 to the late 1990s—although the border security regime operated only partially, even at the height of the Troubles, because the Government in London recognised that a ‘hard’ border would inflame tensions in the Nationalist community. Other controls have been instituted on an ad hoc basis. For instance, in 2001 the Republic of Ireland operated systematic controls at the Irish border to curtail the spread of foot and mouth disease” (Houses of the Oireachtas, P: 69, 2017).

Visa Issues:

The UK’s exit from the EU will remove this basis of entry and residence in the UK. It will therefore directly affect the position of EU citizens and the members of their families who seek to enter or reside in the UK. EU citizens who are Irish citizens are, as previously outlined, subject to a separate regime under the UK’s Ireland Act 1949 and Immigration Act 1971. However, family members of those Irish citizens who are not themselves Irish citizens will not qualify for that status” (…) “The UK’s exit from the EU raises questions concerning the minimal checks on travelers between the Republic and Great Britain and the virtual absence of such checks on travelers between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. The Republic of Ireland is not a party to the Schengen arrangements removing border restrictions between EU Member States, but it remains subject to Article 21 of the TFEU and Directive 2004/38. These oblige it to admit EU nationals subject only to the conditions outlined earlier in this paper. If, after its exit from the EU, the UK chooses to limit the access it grants to non-Irish EU nationals, such restrictions will very likely require some sort of checks or inspections on arrivals from the Republic at ports, airports and even border crossings with Northern Ireland. This would amount to a fundamental change in the nature of the CTA” (Houses of the Oireachtas, P: 82-83, 2017).

Northern Ireland is more in the squeeze by Brexit, than the Republic:

For Ireland, the longer-term effects of Brexit on trade are uncertain and are also predicated on the outcome of negotiations. In the immediate term, the fall in the value of Sterling has meant that Irish exports are less competitive in the UK market. The UK export market accounted for 13.8 per cent of total Irish exports in 2015 (See Figure2). Northern Ireland is a relatively small export market for Ireland, accounting for just 1.6 per cent of total exports in 2015. The UK was the source of 25.7 per cent of Irish imports in 2015. From an overall trade perspective, therefore, the Republic is a much more significant trade market for Northern Ireland, than Northern Ireland is for the Republic, both in terms of export and imports” (Houses of the Oireachtas, P: 138, 2017).

All of this should worry the Northern Irish, the United Kingdom, that they have these issues to deliver. To fix the problems with the border, with the Schengen and Visa’s that are not valid as a non-member state of the European Union. The Northern Ireland will have both a harder border and with the trade. The deficit and the loss of EU programs that are suspended. So the UK has to fix their budget to make sure the government of Northern Ireland has enough funding after the suspension of programs. The second is to find solutions to the trade between the borders after the grand-issue of trade agreement with a third-party nation of United Kingdom. Since the UK and Northern Ireland has to create another agreement with Ireland to fix the issues, but they are a Member State in the EU, so they have to follow the procedures of Brussels and apply for special provisions.

We can also see that the Republic of Ireland in the is report wants a United Ireland. That is not surprising, that they want the whole island to be united and one. Not be separated, but the colonial and historical unionist wants to separate the Irish, to be able to control the Irish. That is why the London government in the past has created issues on the Island. To say something else, is to forget history. Now, the United Kingdom needs Northern Ireland and they are in bed with Unionists. Therefore, the United dream of Ireland, will not be an effort that the UK and Northern Irish will fight for. Even if the NI leaders will not give away their power in London for being united with Dublin. Clearly, this report shows the struggles of Brexit and their relationship with Ireland. Peace.

Reference:

Houses of the Oireachtas – ‘Joint Committee on the Implementation of the Good Friday Agreement Brexit and the Future of Ireland – Uniting Ireland & Its People in Peace & Prosperity’ (3 August 2017)

The Tories-DUP Government gotten many new Brexit hurdles to crossover!

This wasn’t supposed to be this hard, never was it supposed to be so tricky and rocky, but Prime Minister Theresa May and her friend in Downing Street are not composing themselves in a simple way. From the outside, there are made to many rookie mistakes and also not enough precautions of the reactions to the United Kingdom Government own activity. Certainly, the alliance with Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland isn’t making it easier. Since the London Government needs the Belfast ally to stay alive and breathing. That Issue has really come alive in the last two weeks, bot the value of the Nations within in the Union itself can be questioned, because the acts of Prime Minister May.

You are reckless and ruthless when your a nation of Wales, Northern Ireland, Scotland and England, plus a bunch of other territories, part of the Commonwealth. The United Kingdom Government, the Her Majesties Government, the Tories-DUP, the London-Belfast Alliance, should work carefully to the pledges and promises of impartiality, that meaning if the Welsh First Minister ask for more funding. It should happen, since the Northern Irish had a massive pay-day. When the Supply-And-Demand Agreement got signed. Also when the First Minister of Scotland needs to strengthen her seal and represent the Scottish Government. That FM should be respected by the Prime Minister. But in our days of loyalty to the Belfast. The PM only respect First Minister of Northern Ireland Arlene Foster and not FM of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon. Even pay her respects to First Minister Carwyn Jones. Just take a look!

Ditches the First Minister of Scotland:

A Tory minister quoted in a newspaper report yesterday signalled the end of the one-to-one meetings between the two party leaders. The “First Minister will no longer get access to the Prime Minister. She should be meeting David Mundell because he is the same level as her,” the source said. Reportedly, the Tories believe May coming to Scotland and making her first meeting as prime minister with Sturgeon, and posing for photographs on the steps of Bute House, made the Scottish leader “look like an international dignitary, rather than the leader of a devolved nation”. The remarks will infuriate not just SNP supporters but many in the Scottish Parliament, incensed that Downing Street believe the position of First Minister is equal to that of Secretary of State for Scotland” (Learmonth, 2017).

So it is not enough issues that the Prime Minister acts as a Royal and disgraces the First Minister of Scotland, because she favors her new friend in First Minister of Northern Ireland, Arlene Foster gave her the needed bump to still stay in Downing Street. That is why she can recklessly put First Minister Nicola Sturgeon in the shadow, but would she do the same to First Minister Carwyn Jones of Wales? Because of all of them are wearing their seals of their nations, which is part of the United Kingdom, a Union itself. It is not like London and England can rule over the territories without any checks- or balances. That is how it seems, since now the FM of Scotland has to be connected with Scottish State Secretary David Mundell before getting time with PM Theresa May. Wonder if FM Jones has to meet the Wales State Secretary before talking to the PM. We all know that FM Foster can walk straight into the Downing Street and demand respect because their agreement. It shows the political value of Northern Ireland and DUP, compared to the rest. While the DUP are not supposed to create an impartiality problem within the PM May government compared to the devolution and Stormont. Still, it seems so now, since Foster has elevated, while the Scottish are put into the shadow. That is why the Irish questions by the Brexit, makes it even further tumultuous in the negotiations with the EU. Since the Republic of Ireland want it to just and fair border. Something the House of Lords looked into in 2016. Take a look at what the Lords said and what the Taiseach said this week!

House of Lords Report No. 76:

Retaining customs-free trade between the UK and Ireland will be essential if the current soft border arrangements are to be maintained. The experience at other EU borders shows that, where a customs border exists, while the burden and visibility of customs checks can be minimised, they cannot be eliminated entirely. Nor, while electronic solutions and cross-border cooperation are helpful as far as they go, is the technology currently available to maintain an accurate record of cross-border movement of goods without physical checks at the border” (…) “The only way to retain the current open border in its entirety would be either for the UK to remain in the customs union, or for EU partners to agree to a bilateral UK-Irish agreement on trade and customs. Yet given the EU’s exclusive competence to negotiate trade agreements with third countries, the latter option is not currently available” (HL Paper 76, 12.12.2016).

Taiseach Leo Varadkar statement on the border:

Varadkar said: “What we’re not going to do is to design a border for the Brexiteers because they’re the ones who want a border. It’s up to them to say what it is, say how it would work and first of all convince their own people, their own voters that this is actually a good idea. As far as this government is concerned there shouldn’t be an economic border. We don’t want one.” The Department of Foreign Affairs in Dublin has said avoiding a hard border after Brexit will require “flexible and imaginative solutions”. The foreign affairs minister, Simon Coveney, told the Irish national broadcaster, RTE: “There is no proposal that is suggesting that there be a border in the Irish Sea.” (The Guardian, 2017).

When the UK-Irish agreement will be put on hold and made sure of a reasonable border, the United Kingdom will have another type agreement with the EU. Since they are not a direct member, but their whole arrangement will be concerning, which sort of trade agreement the UK will have with the EU. Since Ireland is part of the EU, the basic deal that UK will have with EU, will involve directly the manner of how the border will look. The open border will not be to Northern Ireland, if they become a third nation towards the EU, they will have to follow the measures that entails. It is not just customs, but migration in general.

So the Taiseach says the United Kingdom has to make a border that is fair since the voted for it. This shouldn’t hurt the Irish, because it was UK election who decided to have this and control their borders. That means, they also wants secure the borders towards Ireland and between Northern Ireland. Not only towards the rest of Europe and Calais, it must be broader and more systematic. Certainly, the Tories and the Brexiteers didn’t think this would be an issue, but they have to by all means work with a reasonable border, compared to how it is today. The UK has to respect their will to divorce themselves and the possible trade-agreement will affect their relationship with Ireland. Also, the effects between the joint peace agreement in Northern Ireland and how the border agreements there was written in.

This will be rocky road and nothing is certain, even the seals of the Scottish isn’t respected, only the Northern Irish FM Foster has that, wonder what sort of relationship the FM of Wales has with the PM. Especially, since the FM of Wales, also wants a payout to his Nation, since the Northern Irish got a massive pay-day after the snap-election. This Brexit will make the internal Union ugly, not only throwing trash at the Brussels, they have to clear-up show in Cardiff, Edinburgh and Belfast, as of their standing within the Union of United Kingdom. Peace.

Reference:

Learmonth, Andrew – ‘First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon told that Theresa May is too important to meet with her’ (22.07.2017) link: http://www.thenational.scot/news/15427709.First_Minister_of_Scotland_Nicola_Sturgeon_told_that_Theresa_May_is_too_important_to_meet_with_her/

The Guardian – ‘Ireland ‘will not design a border for the Brexiteers’, says taoiseach’ (28.07.2017) link: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/28/taoiseach-leo-varadkar-ireland-not-design-border-brexiteers?CMP=share_btn_tw

House of Lords recommend flexible approach to migration because of Brexit!

The United Kingdom and their tales of glory, the former Empire and giant industrial hub of Europe, clearly have forgotten their place and trying to distance themselves from Europe. It will not be as easy as the Brexiteers and the Conservative Party. The Tories has to find their way while the negotiations are continuing with the European Union (EU). The leaving will cause grand-issues with migrations and also how the borders will close or be have different visa procedures. Therefore, the labour market and businesses will be hurt by this. Not only the direct trading between the UK and EU, but who get ability to be hired and who cannot come and work in low-educated jobs and low payed jobs. This is what the House of Lords looked into, and it is important to look into the matter. Because the matter isn’t straight forward. The answer is more flexible than what the UKIP and Brexit supporters inside the Conservative Party. Just take a look!

Labour and Immigration:

EU nationals make up 7 per cent of the total workforce. The Labour Force Survey provides estimates of the number of EU nationals working in particular sectors and the proportion they make up of the overall total. For example, the concentration of EU nationals is significantly higher in some sectors, reaching 14.2 per cent in accommodation and food services” (House of Lords, P: 19, 2017).

We strongly recommend that the Government develop a new immigration policy for implementation once the UK has left the European Union. It should consult on the needs of business and on a

time frame for implementing the new policy. Any new immigration system should not make an arbitrary distinction between higher skilled and lower-skilled work on the basis of whether a job requires an undergraduate degree. British businesses must have access to expertise and skills in areas such as agriculture and construction that would at present be categorised as lower-skilled occupations” (House of Lords, P: 24, 2017).

Lack of Migration workers – higher cost for consumers:

As some of our witnesses highlighted, pay is not the only consideration but there are now a large number of migrant workers in some sectors who will not easily be replaced by domestic workers. Competitive labour markets will see some price adjustment in response to labour shortages, with an associated increase in local labour supply. However, in some sectors, business models may have to change. As noted in the example of agriculture, this is likely to lead to higher prices for consumers” (House of Lords, P: 26, 2017).

We warned in our 2008 report on immigration that employment of migrant workers could lead to businesses neglecting skills and training for British workers. As the example of nursing highlights, these fears appear to have been realised. Training for the domestic workforce needs urgently to be given a higher priority” (House of Lords, P: 28, 2017).

The Government must also acknowledge that in order to achieve some of its other policy objectives, such as building 225,000–275,000 new homes each year, lower-skilled immigration may be required in the medium term to provide the necessary labour” (House of Lords, P: 31, 2017).

The objective of having migration at sustainable levels is unlikely to be best achieved by the strict use of an annual numerical target for net migration. Instead, such a target runs the risk of causing considerable disruption by failing to allow the UK to respond flexibly to labour market needs and economic conditions, as the Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union has suggested is necessary. The objective of reducing migration to sustainable levels should be implemented flexibly and be able to take account of labour market needs, in particular during the implementation period” (House of Lords, P: 37, 2017).

You can easily see and envision the lack of agricultural short-term workers for heavy and low-paying jobs. This has to be hired by others and if they are UK citizens and such, they will not work for slice, but wont the whole pizza. That is why the end-game will be more cost for the consumer for what they in the past paid less for. Since the salaries of the UK citizens over the migrant worker are vastly different. Also, the possible problems of getting enough nursers and other educated to take the low-paying civil servants positions needed in the National Health Service. The House of Lords report can really show the implications of the migration and labour market the Brexit will have. Unless, the UK are planning such a soft border and open for EU nationals, than the changes will not be like night and day, but more like a similar day and just a little bit later on the same day.

Then the whole anti-Europe parades and campaigning lost. Since the Brexit became a shell of what it was supposed to be. It will be good for Europe and a pain for the Right in the UK. Certainly, the Farage’s of the world will hate this sort of report. Since the needed flexibility flexes against the will of the UKIP and Brexiteers amongst the Tories. They will be attacking this sort of report. Even if the Lords are impartial and uses accurate data. This shows the estimated effects of Brexit and the words of the Lords wasn’t dim! It can bring hope to Europe, but if the government will follow the recommendations and advise from the Lords; is something that time only can tell. Since the Tories would be showing weaker will to implement the idea behind the Brexit election, if they follow the advice of the Lords. That is not a easy bargain, but who said it would be? Peace.

Reference:

House of Lords – HL 11 – ‘Brexit and the Labour Market’ (21.07.2017)

Brexit: Request for a meeting and Comments to the UK Proposal 26 June (11.07.2017)