On Andrew Mwenda and Corruption – how he has changed his mind over the years

It’s been a long walk for Andrew Mwenda the former Political Editor of the Daily Monitor of Uganda. The former enemy of the regime, the man who got 15 counts against him in court at a set of time for writing against the NRM regime is today another man. He has changed with quotes leading in Chimp reports sadden me. At some point I had faith in the man as a Nobel journalist who fought a just cause. I will show from today and famous words from before to show and mirror the man and how he has fallen from grace. Here I will go back to the letters which shows his colors in black and white. While taking the stand against in one minute and later being for it. This here is about the reach from today and the past where he said differently.

With the reference to the quotes from today’s Chimp reports it shows how he has fallen from grace:

“With a budget of 24 trillion, I think stealing 500 billion is peanuts (it’s a theft rate of less than 2%) In the wider scheme of things, a 2% theft rate is really small. It means that you are utilizing 98% of the money correctly” (…) “May be the stolen 500B is what ensures a stable political order without which we would have civil war. It is hard to tell. The point is, even if you were right about the loss of 500B; you don’t know the other opportunity cost of not stealing it!”(Waswa, 2015).

That is what he said today, but a few years ago when he went independent from the Daily Monitor. On the departure and resignation on the 16^th August 2007 the memorable quotes on the same issues is this:

“The major shareholder is given more investment deals in Uganda. I am a citizen of Uganda, not a mercenary. I therefore cannot betray the future of my country in order to retain the privilege of working or writing for Monitor. The future of Uganda is more than anything that money can buy” (…) “Because Monitor has succumbed to bribes and intimidation from the state, it is no longer the institution I was once proud to serve. It has lost its soul. It has betrayed its readers and listeners. It has betrayed Uganda. It has betrayed Africa. It has betrayed the cause of liberty and freedom. It has betrayed humankind. I cannot be an accomplice to this death of a dream whether because of state intimidation or of sweet heart business deals between the chief of state and the major shareholder. To do so would be identical to the action of Judas Iscariot who betrayed Jesus for 30 pieces of silver” (Mwenda, 2007).

In 2008 letter for late payment for “advertisement” in his publication:

“This is to request you to pay Independence Publication Limited (IPL) US$ 200,000 (two hundred thousand United States dollars) only for adverts in the Independent newsmagazine for the government of Rwanda for the year 2008” (Mwenda, 2008).

In 2010 Mwenda continued the stride against corruption:

“the country needs to implement drastic reforms in order to bring its fiscal house in order and promote development using its own resources—starting with a more efficient and enforced system of taxation” (…) “tax collection by the Uganda Revenue Authority amounts to about 12 percent of GDP—well below the sub-Saharan African average of 18–20 percent and far from the government’s target of 24 percent” (…) “Uganda does not need more foreign aid” (…) “Rather, it needs to improve its tax administration by investing in better staff and motivating them with better pay and better facilities” (Probe International, 2010).

How Mwenda got paid from the Government of Rwanda:

“As capital, Mwenda was advanced $1 million from state consolidated fund termed as classified to start this magazine, then to help fight President Museveni’s Government that Kagame was not happy with” (…) “Mwenda who is on a monthly basis paid $200,000 from state coffers, for his rebuts and propaganda against Kagame’s critics and in defence of the dictator has no shame to compare Kigali roads and streets to Dubai, London and New York, forgetting that these roads are not more than 2 years old, compared to those that have stood a lifespan of more than 100 years” (Gasasira, 2013).

In January 2015 he even wrote this at his own leader in the Independent:

“Corruption is debated in mainstream media as a criminal act whose primary objective is to enrich individuals involved in it. Although it manifests itself this way, this is a residual part of the problem. The real issue about corruption in Uganda is that it is the essence of how political power in the country is organised, exercised, allocated, distributed and reproduced. Corruption is actually our system of government” (…) “President Yoweri Museveni’s greatest triumph has been to organise corruption on a broad-based scale. By expanding cabinet, the number of presidential advisors, increasing the number of districts, creating many commissions and autonomous government agencies and by establishing many security outfits, he has created highly diversified centers for corruption. Even the opposition has districts where they can goad themselves. Where in other nations corruption has been explosive, in Uganda it has been integrative” (Mwenda, 2015).

When you look through his quotes and what he has taken a stand for corruption in the past. And how he accepted certain pay-offs from Rwanda in the beginning of the Independent Magazine as early as 2008. While has had issues with barking at the government of Uganda. This is sadly ironic for this public character and writer that all people who knows Uganda, knows about. Therefore when the colors are off, you know see who he really has become.

So when you see how that money is making him blind on Rwanda and their issues. It is understandable why he will be a strong supporter of the third term in Rwanda. I am sure we will see more of that in the near future. But this here is about corruption and shows how he is not committed to it when it comes to Republic of Rwanda.

Secondly he has from the times of 2007 to 2015, shows the changes and how he has become something else then the man he wanted to be in 2007. If he really wanted to be that man with integrity and honor. He has now lost his marbles in the recent year or tired of being a true renegade against injustice in Uganda. Since he all of a sudden is fan of corruption and believes that generate actual growth. This in a country that has more and more debt, more and more local counties and ministers which cost more money, while it isn’t generating more tax money. That does not make sense Mr. Mwenda? Does it? Your supposed to an enlighten man, but your arguments today beats by your own old words. I am not sure if he is now positive since he claim that the government of Uganda is integrated with Corruption (which he said in January this year) then now in August he claims that it’s okay steal 500bn shillings when the budget is as much as 25 trillion shillings. Because it’s peanuts, it’s a saying that he now can think about: Respect is hard to earn and easy to lose. Something he has done now. With actually proclaiming for the world it’s okay to take 500bn from the state-coffers to their own gain then actually making something decent for their country.

Mr. Mwenda I am sorry whatever reason you can say that thieving is a good thing is wrong. It’s like tomorrow you will claim killing and the plague is great like Malthus is famous for saying: “Instead of recommending cleanliness to the poor, we should encourage contrary habits. In our towns we should make the streets narrower, crowd more people into the houses, and court the return of the plague. In the country we should build our villages near stagnant pools, and particularly encourage settlements in all marshy and unwholesome situations. But above all, we should reprobate specific remedies for ravaging diseases: and those benevolent, but much mistaken men, who have thought they were doing a service to mankind by projecting schemes for the total extirpation of particular disorders. If by these and similar means the annual mortality were increased … we might probably every one of us marry at the age of puberty and yet few be absolutely starved” (Marjie, 2009).

I am waiting for Mr. Mwenda to turn a blind eye to other issues in society. But today’s stupid comments on corruption are as mad as population control from the late Thomas Robert Malthus who lived 1766 – 1834. And Mr. Mwenda want to be seen as enlighten and educated TED talk’s kind of editor. With this kind of reasoning he is losing it. And I don’t know why, I am not sure if he knows why. He surely has become something else then the man who went away from a great position in the Daily Monitor to make his own workplace in the Independent Magazine in Uganda. Which is sad see if he has sold out totally, he will not be a crucial voice into the elections, which is coming in the 2016. He is surely not the man who needed a bail out in 12 August 2005 after being too critical on the KFM radio. That made the government angry so they actually turned off the radio transmitters for a week (Article 19, 2005).

So the man who has had issues with the government must has grown tired and wanted a decent day job instead of being a renegade watchdog with his own magazine. This has led to the quotes today which don’t fit the old reasoning of the same man. Mr. Mwenda, where did your mind go? And why did you change your mind? Peace.

Reference:

Article 19 – For Immediate Release – ‘Uganda: Sedition law must be abolished’ (26.09.2005). Link: https://www.article19.org/data/files/pdfs/press/uganda-sedition-law.pdf

Waswa, Sam – ‘Uganda Needs Corruption to Stimulate Economic Growth – Argues Mwenda’ (12.08.2015) link: http://chimpreports.com/uganda-needs-corruption-to-stimulate-economic-growth-argues-mwenda/

Mwenda, Andrew – ‘Re: Resignation’ (16.08.2007) – Letter sent to the Managing Director of Monitor Publication.

Mwenda, Andrew – ‘Re: Payment for advertisement’- Letter from Independent Publication Ltd to Ministry of Finance, Republic of Rwanda (10.03.2008).

Mwenda, Andrew – ‘the political value of corruption’ (10.01.2015) link: http://independent.co.ug/andrewmwenda/?p=298

Marjie, Bloy – ‘Thomas Malthus’ “Essay on Population”’ (09.08.2009) link: http://www.victorianweb.org/economics/essay.html

Gasasira, Sweden – ‘When Mwenda goofed with $200,000 cheque stolen from poor Rwandans in defence of Kagame dictatorship’ (11.01.2013) link: http://www.umuvugizi.com/?p=7465&lang=en

Probe International – ‘Rewarding corruption: World Bank gives more money to corruption-riddled Uganda’ (14.10.2010) Link: http://journal.probeinternational.org/2010/10/14/rewarding-corruption-world-bank-gives-more-money-to-corruption-riddled-uganda/

Uganda – MPS Defence budget for FY 2015/2016 – Quotes and Outtakes:

Here are the quotes and outtakes from the Ministry of Defence in Uganda. Government of Uganda has with this Ministerial Policy Statement (MPS) it shows the value of the Defence Ministry. So here we go to show it!

Vision of the Ministry:

“The vision and commitment of Ministry of Defence is to transform and sustain the UPDF into a modern, professional, efficient and accountable force” (MPS P: 7).

Internal Security Environment:

“The tensions which erupted in the Rwenzori Sub-region in July 2014 were contained by the Security forces. In order to fundamentally resolve the basis of the tensions” (…) “Disarmament Operations in Karamoja have largely been successful and as a result this year’s Tarehe Sita celebrations were held in the Karamoja sub region under the theme” (…) “Terror threats from Al-Shabaab and ADF still persist. Some murders particularly in Eastern Uganda have been linked to ADF elements” (MPS P: 8).

External Security Environment:

“To the north of the country, the security situation in South Sudan remains volatile. Fighting between the warring parties continued despite the IGAD mediation process in Addis Ababa, clashes in the states of Jonglei, Unity and Upper Nile persist” (…) “On the western frontier of our border with DRC, the threat of ADF persists despite ongoing operations by the DRC’S national army, the FARDC and the Intervention brigade of the UN” (…) “UPDF maintains strategic deployments along the border and an intelligence liaison team in Beni town to monitor this security situation. As reported last year, the M23 was militarily defeated and a political agreement reached between the DRC Government and the M23. However, the implementation of the agreed declarations in Nairobi has stagnated. For example of all the M23 ex-combatants that took refuge in Uganda only 182 have been repatriated and over 1000 are still in Uganda” (…) “the Counter LRA Operations. In the course of the year no agreement was reached in regard to Uganda joining the UN multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission for CAR (MINUSCA)” (…) “RTF).Counter LRA Operations in the course of the year were remarkable. Twenty five (25) rebels were killed and seven(7) forced to defect including Brig Dominic Ongwen, who is now being prosecuted by the ICC in the Hague. Over 100 abductees, including women and children were rescued from LRA captivity” (…) “In Somalia, the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) continues to register achievements. Key coastal towns, including the Port of Barawe which was the lifeline of Al-Shabaab, were captured. Consequently the 5 sea route portion between the ports of Mogadishu and Kismayo is now under the control of AMISOM forces” (MPS P: 9-11).

Public Enterprise:

“The Uganda Air Cargo Corporation had its license withdrawn by the CAA in the general operation to enforce standards. For most of the year therefore the corporation has suffered heavy losses” (…) “the National Enterprises Corporation (NEC), performance has not been to the desired standards. Accordingly a new managing director is being appointed and the corporation will fundamentally get restructured” (MPS P: 12).

Logistical Support:

“Food stuffs and agricultural products were procured to feed troops on special operations, patients, trainees and ceremonial functions” (…) “It should however be noted that the budget allocation on food is 18.5bn against a requirement of 53bn hence creating a shortfall in the Ministry’s budget. There is need for an increment on the Ministry’s food budget” (…) “the Ministry to enjoy economies of scale and also ensure that the whole force is fully dressed at once. This costed the Ministry 22bn worth of uniforms against the allocated budget of 11b” (…) “Vehicles The Ministry continued servicing the outstanding debt obligation in respect to the acquisition of 109 vehicles. Payment for the same is expected to be completed in FY 15/16. Routine servicing which included procurement of spares and supplies of all vehicles and equipments to keep them operational was undertaken to enable smooth operation of the Ministry. With a meager budget of Shs. 1.573bn, single line tyre dressing of MoD/UPDF vehicles was also undertaken” (…) “Air force continued to consolidate its capability through routine maintenance, overhaul fabrication and procurement of service parts. Assorted workshop and ground tools were acquired to further strengthen the UPDAF capability to conduct routine maintenance. A total of 7.2bn” (…) “In order to facilitate training, the movement of troops and delivery of logistics at the required time and place, the ministry is projected to procure POL products worth Shs 31.976bn against an allocation of 10.3bn” (MPS P: 15).

Welfare:

“Decentralization of payment of government employee’s salaries to line ministries, the ministry continued to use the Integrated Personnel Payroll System (IPPS) to pay salaries of the public officers and pension/gratuity for the soldiers while the salary of the troops continued to be paid through the IRIMS. This has greatly improved payment of salaries as they were received before the 28th day of every month. During this FY 2014/15, the ministry plans to retire 1,112 personnel in phases” (…) “National Medical Stores (NMS), the ministry further strengthened the implementation of this directive by entering into a Memorandum of Understanding with National Medical Stores. Shs 3,019,523,250/= was remitted to NMS to cater for the ministry’s pharmaceuticals requirement” (MPS P: 16).

Infrastructure Development:

Planned Outputs:

“The UPDF will continue with routine border surveillance and further strengthen early warning mechanisms to deal with border insecurity and terrorist groups be it ADF, LRA or any other wherever they may be. UPDF will continue supporting the Uganda Police Force, whenever called upon, to enhance internal peace and security, and controlling the proliferation of Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALW)” (…) “In addition the UPDF will continue contributing to regional peace and stability through regional bodies. Under the African Union and IGAD, continued progress will be made to build the East African Standby Force. The ministry will continue participating in other regional bodies like EAC, IGAD and ICGLR to address collectively regional peace and security issues” (MPS P: 18).

Logistical support under planned outputs:

“Refurbish and maintain UPDAF Aircrafts: UPDF has a number of aircrafts that require regular refurbishment, maintenance, overhaul of engines as well as acquisition of spare parts. In order to enhance UPDAF capability, the MoD will focus on refurbishing and maintaining of the aircrafts” (…) “Machinery and equipment: The Ministry will continue to establish a combination of contracted and sustainable maintenance plan for its equipment in Mogadishu (…) “Defense Force Shop: Sale of duty free building materials to troops and their families and diversity stocks. The shop has 08 outlets (AMISOM)” (…) Defense Strategic Infrastructure Investment Plan (DSIIP): During this planning period, the DSIIP will continue to guide infrastructure development, resource allocation and prioritization of development. The DSIIP will focus on the construction of the referral ; construction of 30,000 housing units for soldiers” (MPS P: 19-21).

Cross cutting issues:

“The UPDF Spouses desk which falls under the Chieftaincy of Political Commiseriate aims at improving the welfare of families of the UPDF soldiers in all Units country-wide through empowering them with skills that will improve their livelihood.With a budget of Shs.40m” (MPS P: 23).

Afterthought:

The opinions and wishes from the Statement are clear. You can see the wishes of the UPDF. The way the government wishes to use and function of the army. From being an important part of the African Union peace missions. To also becoming vital in the close area like in South Sudan where even the advice from the Parliament is to pull out. We all know that isn’t going to happen because of the relationship between Museveni and Kiir. They have fought together and helped each other. Now Museveni supports his neighbor and the SPLM. The UPDF are also already in Somalia and Central African Republic as well. When you see the budget for things you well ask yourself. As well as the Classified Equipment are big number and you starting to wonder what that money goes for. Especially when they call it ‘Classified’ and why it’s that size of cash. But I think the rest of the numbers talk for them self. Peace.

IMF Country Report No.15/175 on Uganda and the IMF review of the Policy Support – Quotes and Outtakes

Now I will go through how the IMF is describing the economic situation in Uganda. It will have similarities with the budget of 2015/2016. Seem like the Ministry of Finance in Uganda. The numbers and fiscal standards are exactly the same. Still I think it will good to see and give what the Western Hemisphere and the monetary organ is saying about the economy of Uganda. So that people can see the similarities and also the difference quotes from the situation.

Min Zhu the Deputy Managing Director and Acting Chair in the IMF commented on Uganda in this way:

“The economic policy mix is expected to remain focused on attaining growth and inflation Objectives” (…) “The Bank of Uganda is encouraged to remain firmly focused on the maintenance of price stability” (…) “Enacting regulations to implement the new PFM Act and a charter of fiscal responsibility, and improving cash management are critical remaining reforms. Amending the Bank of Uganda Act and enacting financial institutions legislation are key steps to further enhance central bank independence and strengthen financial resilience”.

The Executive board:

“Uganda’s recent economic performance has been favorable. Real GDP growth is projected at 5¼ percent for FY2014/15 supported by a fiscal stimulus and a recovery in Private Consumption” (…) “Economic policies in FY2014/15 have supported growth and stability objectives. The fiscal deficit is estimated at 4½ percent of GDP, below previous projections, on account of a sharp tax revenue increase” (…) “The outlook is promising. Growth is estimated at 5¾ percent in FY2015/16 and an average 6¼ percent over the medium-term, driven by scaled-up public investment and a rebound in private demand”.

The Executive Board Assessment:

“Directors stressed the need for continued fiscal discipline in the pre-electoral environment, and recommended strengthened communication with the markets” (…) “Directors welcomed the adoption of the Public Financial Management Act, and advised prompt enactment of its regulations”.

Staff report from the 12^th June 2015:

Context:

“Security concerns following unrest in neighboring countries and terrorist attacks in the region have weighed on Uganda’s spending needs, exports, and remittances. Declining donor support in reaction to concerns about governance and human rights and reduced development partners’ aid budgets have spurred domestic borrowing requirements” (…) “During a period of moderate growth, inflation has come down significantly from its 33 percent peak in 2011; and despite a decline in international reserves and a pickup in public debt, both remain at comfortable levels” (…) “The reduction in the stock of domestic arrears was smaller than targeted reflecting a decision to backload intra-year repayments, but the annual target is expected to be met. Contracting of nonconcessional borrowing (NCB) for hydropower plants (HPPs), roads, and electrification was within the $2.2 billion limit. Most end-March ITs were met” (…) “The approval of the Public Financial Management (PFM) Act in November 2014 was a major milestone, and structural benchmarks on finalizing preparation on its regulations and the Charter of Fiscal Responsibility (CFR) were observed. The Treasury Single Account (TSA) set-up has laid the stage for improved cash management although more time will be needed to eliminate movements of cash and incorporate donor accounts in the system. The submission to parliament of amendments to the Bank of Uganda (BoU) Act was postponed” (…) “the government has started the implementation of an ambitious investment package aimed at narrowing the infrastructure gap, enhancing regional integration, and preparing for oil production”.

Recent Developments:

“real GDP growth was 4½ percent in FY2013/14, driven by services, trade, construction, and manufacturing—below the estimated potential of about 6 percent” (…) “The nominal exchange rate against the US dollar appreciated by 7 percent in the year through February 2014, and since then depreciated by 20-25 percent” (…) “The real effective exchange rate appreciated by about 4 percent in 2014, mainly reflecting the weakening of Uganda’s main trading partners’ currencies” (…) “Annual core inflation fell to 2.7 percent in December 2014 and rebounded to 4.8 percent in May 2015” (…) “GDP was revised upwards by 17¼ percent in FY2009/10, the base year. The services sector and to a lesser extent the agricultural sector increased their share in GDP, while the share of industry and construction declined” (…) “Short-term benefits of the oil price decline have been less pronounced in Uganda than in other countries in the region. In the past nine months, petrol average pump prices have declined by 10 percent in domestic currency” (…) “Oil investments might be delayed in the context of lower profitability. Moreover, many interrelated investment decisions are dependent on the oil price, including granting production licenses; signing commercial and financial arrangements; developing engineering, procurement and construction plans; and agreeing on transnational infrastructure works” (…) “The current account deficit remained large owing to structurally high trade deficits. Imports of capital goods and petroleum products are increasing, while both coffee and non-coffee exports have stagnated since mid-2013 reflecting depressed food exports to South Sudan” (…) “The monetary policy transmission asymmetry is explained by the banks’ cautious focus on loan recovery and their high operating costs, coupled with some crowding out effects as government’s domestic borrowing requirements increased at that time” (…) “The number of commercial banks has increased from 14 to 25 with a large influx of foreign banks, which currently hold 80 percent of assets” (…) “the BoU kept a tight policy stance, holding the CBR constant at 11 percent from June 2014 to April 2015, and then raising it to 12 percent, on account of global developments and the ongoing and expected exchange rate pass-through. The BoU’s intervention in the foreign exchange market has been focused on its program of announced dollar purchases for reserve build-up, but in the last few months it has been intervening on the sale side to smooth the fast-paced shilling depreciation. This intervention, along with increased infrastructure-related government imports, drove reserves down from $3.2 billion in end-December to $2.9 billion in mid-May (about 4 months of imports)”.

Economic Outlooks and Risks:

“Public investment financing, alongside weaker exports and tourism receipts, will drive the current account deficit up while preserving reserves at 4 months of imports” (…) “Low consumer prices—with average core inflation projected to remain within the PSI consultation inner band at 3½ and 6¼ percent for end FY2014/15 and FY2015/16″ (…) “Slower growth in key trading partners and further spillovers from lower global liquidity could trigger capital outflows, squeezing liquidity and generating currency mismatches for banks and corporations. In the medium term, the complex commercial and legal aspects surrounding FDI in the oil sector could delay the planned investments”.

Supporting Medium-Term Growth:

“The latter has been at the center of the authorities’ economic agenda as infrastructure investments of around $11 billion—including PPPs—are expected over the next ten years” (…) “With recoverable crude oil reserves of 1.7 billion barrels out of potential reserves of 6.5 billion, oil production would start in FY2020/21 under a model that entails a crude export pipeline and a domestic refinery” (…) “Uganda ratified the Monetary Union Protocol, and has been actively participating in work to establish EAC regional institutions and to create a fiscal surveillance process” (…) “the Uganda Revenue Authority (URA) to improve enforcement and compliance, but a sustained increase in the ratio will require incorporating the large informal sector into the tax-paying portion of the economy and ensuring that large taxpayers comply with their obligations” (…) “Sustainable financial deepening will largely rely on making steady progress on financial inclusion, which will in turn depend on actions to boost the bank deposit base; enhance the intermediation role of non-bank financial institutions, including the National Social Security Fund (NSSF); and develop the money and capital markets” (…) “Staff’s debt sustainability analysis, which includes the infrastructure package as a whole, concludes that the public and publicly guaranteed external debt-to-GDP ratio in net present value (NPV) terms would peak at about 25 percent in FY2020/21. Even combined with domestic borrowing plans, total public debt would remain well below the benchmark associated with heightened vulnerabilities” (…) “The tax-to-GDP ratio in Uganda was one of the lowest in the region prior to the GDP rebasing and is definitely the lowest afterward. Over the past ten years the ratio only increased by 0.2 percentage points per year, on average” (…) “Planned improvements include URA’s efforts to assess income from rental properties and identify businesses that are accessing local services but not filing national tax returns. Use of enhanced controls and creation of a single central processing center for all customs clearances should boost customs revenue” (…) “EAC convergence criteria, Uganda has targeted a tax-to-GDP ratio of 25 percent by 2021”(…) “Social protection in Uganda is entrenched in the Constitution, Vision 2040 and the NDP II. Interventions have nonetheless been limited and fragmented—with only 0.4 percent of GDP a year devoted to direct income support and 1.2 percent of GDP to total social protection”.

Maintaining Fiscal restraint while raising Public Investment:

“The overall deficit increased by 2 percent of GDP between FY2011/12 and FY2014/15” (…) “The overall deficit is projected to increase by an additional 2½ percentage points by FY2017/18 fueled by a continued expansion in capital spending (3¾ percentage points) and a small increase in current spending (¼ percentage point), and curtailed by a further improvement in revenues of at least ½ percent of GDP each year” (…) “the supplementary budget used part of the windfall revenue and expenditure savings to cover operational shortfalls at several ministries, and Electoral Commission outlays, among other pressing needs. All in all, the overall fiscal deficit is now projected to reach 4½ percent of GDP (6¾ percent in the program) and issuances of securities in the domestic market should remain within the target” (…) “The FY2015/16 budget will increase the overall fiscal deficit to 7 percent of GDP largely financed by NCB on favorable terms” (…) “The contingency provision was reduced by 0.2 percent of GDP at the time of budget approval to facilitate one-off spending on police activities linked to the election and allowances to parliamentarians, leaving little budget flexibility and requiring prudent execution in the year ahead”.

Protecting the Inflation objective:

“Some challenges remain, including insufficient institutional arrangements to prevent government’s use of deposits in BoU accounts beyond agreed levels, and shortcomings in inflation forecasting capabilities and fiscal-monetary policy coordination” (…) “Given the high share of imported goods in the CPI, import prices play a key role in inflation behavior, with an estimated pass-through factor of 0.4–0.5” (…) “The BoU has taken steps to reduce volatility in overnight market rates by allowing all banks (previously only primary dealers) to access BoU operations”.

Securing a more effective contribution of the Financial Sector to Growth:

“The BoU does not stress test banks’ resilience to lending rate hikes because of insufficient data availability” (…) “High dollarization. 37 percent of deposits and 43 percent of loans are denominated in foreign currency” (…) “banks’ business models, with a large share of assets devoted to investments in Treasury bills, reflect cautious risk taking, as well as curtailed policy predictability given the large swings in interest rates, thus jeopardizing credit growth”.

Building Institution and improving the Business Environment:

“Core fiscal targets: These targets are based on the EAC convergence criteria, and consist of an overall deficit target of 3 percent of GDP by FY2020/21 and an annual debt ceiling of 50 percent of GDP in NPV terms”.

Staff Appraisal:

“That fiscal policy decisions will be strictly aligned to the budget is essential to influencing banks’, corporations’, and households’ behavior. Even more critical, however, is that policy implementation adheres to the budget to build a track record of fiscal discipline during pre-electoral periods and preserve the economic objectives”.

Afterthought:

Can you believe it and how the inflation numbers together with the borrowing are not totally the same, that is for the reason that the Budget Deficit has been set by the government of Uganda is on the size of the yearly budget instead of the GDP as the IMF they set it there, the number will significant better and also smaller. Still, the Yearly Review which was ‘Value for Money’ told the same, even if the number will be different next year from URA and Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MoFPED) will hopefully drop similar numbers next time. Since the numbers for deficit are going up and also the loans because of missing donor money. While waiting for the money from the Oil Development. Still, wait for how the budget year 2015/2016 will go. Peace.

How the Implementation of the IMF Policy Support is going:  

Letter from the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MoFPED) to the IMF:

Reference:

International Monetary Fund – IMF Country Report No. 15/175: STAFF REPORT FOR THE 2015 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION AND FOURTH REVIEW UNDER THE POLICY SUPPORT INSTRUMENT—PRESS RELEASE; STAFF REPORT; AND STATEMENT BY THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR FOR UGANDA (July 2015).

CSO Press Statement on the Uganda FY 2015/2016 National Budget Framework – Our Monster Budget: Between a Rock and a Hard Place (07.06.2015)

CSO Proposals to WASH Forum Water and Sanitation (Proposals towards Uganda’s National Budget Framework FY 2015-2016)

Uganda – Outtakes and quotes from the Uganda National Budget Framework FY: 2015-2016

It’s this time a year and this has been delivered to me. So I feel the need to drop the most interesting stuff from the Uganda’s National Budget Framework FY 2015-2016. I can drop the whole piece since it’s too much. So I have taken the pieces that are worth setting some extra light and questioning. To give you a little feeling about what’s special this year. Enjoy!

When I have more time and can. I will dig deeper into the specific areas and allocation. And look for there some difference from last year. And if they have made something special. This is a document of 789 pages. There is a lot to grasp. This is just a tiny piece of it all. Hope you get to something out of what I put up today. There will be more later from me. Hope you have enjoyed this. Peace.