MinBane

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Archive for the tag “Nasir Fraction”

Opinion: Al-Bashir’s government is broke, that’s why he is so invested in South Sudanese Peace Process!

Today’s news from Khartoum all makes sense, as the bread-riots and rising prices are now hitting the government, as the President of Sudan, Omar al-Bashir had to dissolve and cut-back on government spending, this is happening as the Khartoum government have been more involved in the Peace Process of Juba and South Sudan, than usual. Surely, there are with some reasons. I will get to those, but as there are some clear indications why, now as the Sudanese government clearly lack fiscal funds and needs to revise their budgets. As the Cabinet is shrinking in.

Sudan’s President Omar al-Bashir has decided to dissolve the country’s national reconciliation government, Al Arabiya News Channel can confirm. Instead, Bashir has reduced the number of ministries under a newly formed government to 21 portfolios. Among the changes included the appointment of Moataz Mousa as successor to Mohammed Osman Rikabi as finance minister and Sadiq Ahmed al-Nile as successor to Ibrahim Mahmoud as interior minister” (Al Arabiya English – ‘Sudan’s Bashir dissolves govt, appoints new ministers’ 09.09.2018).

Because, there was vital part of the Khartoum Declaration of 25th June 2018, that bugged me like crazy and now that Khartoum is clearly going into a deep economic struggle. Those parts of the agreement makes more sense and why Al-Bashir made himself such a sponsor of the agreement between the SPLM/A-IG, SPLM/A-IO, SPLM-FPD and the SSOA,

What was striking to me, was this article from June 2018:

To delegate the government of Sudan to take the necessary steps towards securing oil fields in South Sudan in coordination with the Government of South Sudan, and to work on the rehabilitation of the oil fields with the view to restore previous levels of the oil production. In this context, the outstanding issues between the two sisterly countries of Sudan and South Sudan related to oil sector shall be resolved” (Points of Framework Agreement, 25.06.2018).

Today, it makes even more sense, as the rise and production of oil, that will go through the pipelines will add revenue to the state on the brink of economic tragedy. Because, Khartoum cannot be in a good place economically, when they are scaling down the size of the government and ceasing ministries. That shows that the Sudanese are lacking fiscal funds and are in dire need of new revenue sources. However, that can come from South Sudan, if they get their act together, have peace and have less internal fighting. Than the pipelines can provide Khartoum steady rates of the flowing oil to Port Sudan and ensure petro-dollars. That would save the day and the face of Al-Bashir.

That is why he has taken a further stake, as he needs the oil revenue now, as his state are lacking funds. Because no sensible state overnight, makes order to scale-back without some lack of fiscal funds to run the operations of these ministries and pay for the civil servants there.

We can just await riots and trouble, unless Al-Bashir gets sudden funding. This is the writing on the wall and the reasons for sudden involvement in the peace process are now more evident too. As he needs all the barrels of oil he can, because that can save his fiscal revenue and ensure all his allies are paid. Peace.

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South Sudan: CTSAMM Report 2018/21 Fighting Between Parties from 1 to 27 June 2018 (27.06.2018)

South Sudan: I expect President Kiir to rule for life!

Who shot him? I asked.

The grey man scratched the back of his neck and said: Somebody with a gun.

Dashiell Hammett

Pres Kiir asks national parliament to amend constitution & extend his term for another 3 years without elections, Kiir’s term in office is due to expire by August. South Sudan has never had any presidential elections ever since becoming an independent nation in 2011” (Juba Daily News, 03.07.2018).

Color me not surprised, let me say that there is plenty of ammunition and awaiting someone hitting the target. In the middle of the bulls-eye. I expect the bullets to sharply hit the target and leave nothing to chance. That the so-called end of term President Salva Kiir Mayardiit to step down, I would never expect that to happen.

That the man taking over after Dr. John Garang fatal assassination in August 2005. The man that took over from the Supreme Leader and the Rebel leader who ushered in his presence at all. That Kiir would give up his leadership and his administration, now? No, that wouldn’t happen and there is no will to see that. A man that has been running the Sudanese People’s Liberation Army/Movement (SPLA/M) or the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU) since 2011. That he would step is far-fetched.

The only way Kiir is going out is by the bullet or grenade, some kind of fatal “accident”, where someone planted weapons and technical difficulties, which leads to his demise. This sort of leader doesn’t just step down, they get either taken out or by a rare luck of coincidence a coup d’etat, which happens to be bloodless.

That there is news that Kiir isn’t stepping down, should be expected. It is expected to feel wet while raining. It happens to be connected that when it rains, raindrops contains water and that make you feel humid. In the same regard Kiir is just doing what is expected to do. It is not like the TGoNU or any part of SPLA/M is questioning his powers. No, nobody has the balls or the rank to question the man.

If you do, your a rebel and have to go to the bush. You have to make your political and military outfit. Just like Gen. Paul Malong, Dr. Riek Machar or anyone else, who has rebelled against Kiir. No one questions the man who rules by decree. No one has the achievements or the ability to takeover from Kiir.

If they said so, they would be rebels and be outcast, they could end up as outlaws and they would displease the almighty. And no one wants to make the almighty bitter or mad, then they know they will feel his retribution. That is self-destruction and usually a fools move.

So we shouldn’t expect any one to carry the mantle of Garang or Kiir anytime soon. Kiir has just been ruling for 13 years, we should at least expect a decade or two more. Kiir wants to rule for life and has no plans to step down and give way. He rather put bullets through someones dome, than actually make anyone else rule in the Republic. Therefore, expect the SPLA/M or TGoNU to let Kiir rule indefinitely.

Kiir isn’t going anywhere… He has no plan to do so, neither does the SPLA/M, therefore, anything else is futile. We are speaking 2018 and up to 2021, than he has been in charge for a decade of South Sudan, but also of SPLM/A since 2005. That is 16 years and close to Garang. Therefore, not expect that 2021 are the final nail in the coffin. It will not be that easy, he will be there until something unfortunate happens.

A man of hte sword, dies by the sword. Peace.

IGAD Council of Ministers – Press Release on South Sudan (30.06.2018)

The African Union High Level Ad Hoc Committee for South Sudan convenes on the margins of the African Union Summit, Nouakchott (30.06.2018)

SPLM/A-IO: On The Allegations By The Minister of Information, Culture, Youth and Sports, of Eastern Lakes States (30.06.2018)

SSOA Press Release on Khartoum Declaration of Agreement 2018 (28.06.2018)

SPLM/A-IO: Declaration of Permanent Ceasefire (28.06.2018)

Statement of the Chairperson of the African Union Commission on South Sudan (28.06.2018)

United Nations chief welcomes agreement by rival leaders in South Sudan, as a step towards ‘inclusive and implementable’ Peace (28.06.2018)

United Nations Secretary-General has welcomed an agreement signed on Wednesday by the President of South Sudan and his former Vice President.

GENEVA, Switzerland, June 28, 2018 – President Salva Kiir, and his rival and former deputy, Riek Machar, reached an agreement in the Sudanese capital Khartoum, which according to reports, includes a ceasefire between government and opposition forces that is due to begin within 72 hours.

Previous efforts to end fighting between the rival forces since 2013 around South Sudan have failed, leaving tens of thousands dead, and around four million either internally-displaced or forced to flee to neighbouring countries. The humanitarian crisis has left millions without enough to eat, and led to famine in parts of the country.

In a statement issued by his Spokesman, UN chief António Guterres said that Wednesday’s agreement had been signed “at a time when the security situation in parts of South Sudan continues to deteriorate, marked by violations of the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement of December 2017, with killings of civilians and other atrocities.”

“He therefore, welcomes the Parties renewed commitment to redouble their efforts in the interest of peace,” the statement continued.

Mr. Guterres also commended the continuing efforts of the so-called High Level Revitalization Forum which first met in December last year, under the auspices of the African regional development forum, known as IGAD. Together with the UN and the African Union, IGAD has been working for years to facilitate the peace process.

“Welcoming the intention of the parties to continue negotiations to finalize the IGAD bridging proposals”, the statement from UN Headquarters in New York said, “the Secretary-General urges all parties to demonstrate the political leadership required at this critical juncture of the peace process and engage to reach agreement on the outstanding issues of governance and security arrangements.”

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