Vincent Kaggwa arrested and missing – Where is he?

Vincent Kaggwa

There been arrest of opposition members has been frequent in Uganda (if you have followed the situation you know its often). The news was in social media that a Pro-Amama Mbabazi NRM Youth Brigade member Vincent Kaggwa was arrest while wearing a t-shirt with JPAM in 16.07.2015. So the reports starting flying that on the 17.07.2015 the Flying Squad Police raided the residence of Kaggwa with pistols in his Katanga. Then he was driven to the Special Investigation Department (SID) in Kireka. Then after this he headed to the Nalusenya Prision in Jinja. Family members have been to the prison but they claim to never have heard of anybody called Vincent Kaggwa. This all happen for a simple reason – he had shirts with pictures of presidential hopeful Amama Mbabazi.

Who is Vincent Kaggwa:

For those who don’t know Vincent Kaggwa. He was one of the main members on the Team Amama Mbabazi 2016-2021. Vincent was also a NRM Poor Youth member. He was also in 2014 the Interim spokesperson for the NRM Poor Youth Forum and the Chairman for the Kawempe sub-county.

Where is he:

Hopefully he is breathing somewhere like Sam Mugumya! I really do, but the rumors and speculation are going about the life of Vincent Kaggwa the political active member of NRM Poor Youth Forum that he might even stopped to breathe. Hope he will give a statement soon and the world will know his whereabouts. Still the Team Amama Mbabazi 2016-2021 wonder where he is! The same does I, since there haven’t been any reports from government and Police sources. Peace.

How the new counties will change for the constituencies before the Presidential General Election 2016 in Uganda – and which MPs it affects.

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Recently there been reports that yet again the government of Uganda has decided to split a certain numbers of counties into 39 new counties and in the end make the total amount of Member of Parliament (MPs) to 424 (Kisakye, 2015). This can only been seen as a calculated plan to gain more MPs by the government party to reign over this new counties. I will go through who will have to fight for new constituency and votes in newly created counties that the government wishes. This will be after the list that was on the Observer. I will take district after district. An over time I think you’ll see a pattern.

Agago County MPs:

Who? Party:
John Amos Okot NRM
Judith Franca Akello FDC

Amuria County MPs:

Who? Party:
Francis Musa Ecweru NRM

Manjiya County MPs:

Who? Party:
David Wakikona NRM

Bukedea County MPs:

Who? Party:
George Stephen Ekuma NRM
Rose Akol Okullu NRM

Bukomansimbi County MPs:

Who? Party:
Deogratius (Deo) Kiyingi DP
Susan Namaganda DP

Bulambuli County MPs:

Who? Party:
Irene Nafuna Muloni NRM
Midimi Wamakuyu NRM

Dokolo County MPs:

Who? Party:
Felix Okot Ogong NRM
Cecilla Barbera Atim Ogwal FDC

Gomba County MPs:

Who? Party:
Rosemary Muyinda Najjemba NRM
Kyabangi Katusiime Nakato NRM

Kilak County MPs:

Who? Party:
Gilbert Olanya Independent
Betty Bigombe Atuku NRM

Dodoth East – Kaabong County MPs:

Who? Party:
Samson Lokeris NRM

Bulamogi County – Kaliro District MPs:

Who? Party:
Kenneth Lubago Independent
Flavia Nabugere NRM

Kibuku County MPs:

Who? Party:
Moses Saleh Wilson Kamba NRM
Sarah Mwebaza Wanene NRM

Nyabushozi County MPs:

Who? Party:
Fred Mwesigye NRM
Beatrice Rusaniya Namala Barumba NRM

Kibanda County MPs:

Who? Party:
Sam Owor Amooti Otada Independent
Helen Kahunde NRM

Chua County MPs:

Who? Party:
Henry Okello Oryem NRM
Beatrice Anywar Atim FDC

Kole County MPs:

Who? Party:
Fred Ebil UPC
Joy Ruth Acheng UPC

Kumi County MPs:

Who? Party:
Patrick Oboi Amuriat FDC
Christine Hellen Amongin Aporu NRM

Kiboga West County MPs:

Who? Party:
Samuel Ssemugaba NRM
Ann Maria Nankabirwa NRM

Kyaka County MPs:

Who? Party:
William Ngabu Kwemara NRM
Flavia Kabahenda Rwabuhoro NRM

Mwenge North County MPs:

Who? Party:
David Muhumuza NRM

Luuka County MPs:

Who? Party:
John B.  Ngobi Bagoole Independent
Evelyn Naome Mpagni N. Kaabule NRM

Maracha County MPs:

Who? Party:
Alex Onzima Independent
Ruth Molly  Ondoru Lematia NRM

Kashari County MPs:

Who? Party:
Yaguma Wilberforce NRM

Ruhinda County MPs:

Who? Party:
Kahinda Otafiire NRM
Jovah Kamateeka NRM

Matheniko County MPs:

Who? Party:
Dr. John Baptist Lokii NRM

Aruu County MPs:

Who? Party:
CD Oketayot Lowila NRM
Samuel Otto Odonga FDC

Kooki County MPs:

Who? Party:
Amos Mandera NRM

Mawogola County MPs:

Who? Party:
Sam Kahamba Kutesa NRM
Anifa Kawooya Bangirana NRM

Soroti County MPs:

Who? Party:
Michael George Mukula NRM
Peter Omolo FDC
Angelline Osegge FDC

Okoro County MPs:

Who? Party:
Stanley Oribdhogu Omwonya NRM

Butebo County MPs:

Who? Party:
Stephen Oscar Malinga NRM

Tororo County MPs:

Who? Party:
Geofrey Ekanya FDC

Kibaale County MPs:

Who? Party:
Frank Kagyigyi Tumwebaze NRM

Aringa County MPs: (Will be three more districts)

Who? Party:
Achile Manoah Mile UPC
Abason Huda Oleru NRM

Bugahya County MPs:

Who? Party:
James Kiiza Rwebembera NRM

Koboko County MPs:

Who? Party:
Ahmed Awongo NRM
Margreth Diri Bara NRM

Kassanda County MPs:

Who? Party:
Godfrey Lubega Independent
Thembo George William Nyombi NRM

East Moyo County MPs:

Who? Party:
Moses Ali NRM
Jesica Ababiku Independent

In numbers of the MPs that is on the line and getting new districts to get votes for re-elections in the 2016 elections. This here will be decisive for them. AS you can see that even some district has big birds and people who have been in the wind for a long time like Otafiire from Ruhinda County. But now let me show the numbers:

Party: Total MPs: Percentage:
NRM (National Resistance Movement) 45 69%
FDC (Forum for Democratic Change) 8 12%
DP (Democratic Party) 2 3%
UPC (Uganda People’s Congress) 3 4.6%
Independent 7 10.7%
Total Sum of MPS: 65 100%

This should be call on how the NRM wish to split the votes in certain areas so that they can eat more of the votes in next election. That they can take more of the independent votes and also from the opposition parties like FDC.

Uganda regions

Let me show the areas that are being split not just name of main counties. Since Uganda has been split to smaller and smaller fractions and now is hard to remember where the “original” bigger counties where before they got into the humongous number of 424. So let see here:

Part of the Country Total Couties:
Buganda VI – 6
Ankole IIII – 4
Kigezi 0 – 0
Toro II – 2
Bunyoro II – 2
Acholi VI – 6
West Nile IIII – 4
Lango II – 2
Karamoja I – 1
Teso III – 3
Sebei 0 – 0
Bugisha 0 – 0
Bukedi II – 2
Busoga V – 5
Total Counties: 37

(Aringa County will become three counties – North/South and Yumbe)

Numbers game:

If you can quickly see it’s the central regions that have a certain level of changes like in the Ankole, Busoga, Bunyoro and Buganda. The number of counties which is changing in the central/eastern is 17 of 39. Other areas that are also getting a renovation from the government are the Acholi, West Nile and Karamoja which is the Northern parts of Uganda. The total of areas that will be changed is 13 of 39Those total 30 of the 39. So it’s easily to see where the main changes are happening. Sometimes in the heartland of the opposition parties than in the Movement territory, so if you think otherwise. Look at the numbers and see even if this is going after 69% of the MPs are NRM. We all know that around Mbale and up north has voted for DP more than NRM in history. FDC is also gaining more grown in eastern, central and western areas. Therefore NRM fearing this, FDC candidate even won in Amuru by-election in November 2014. So that the Government is making a change in the districts around isn’t surprising. But let’s look at the other part of this changes that I haven’t touched on yet. Not the number game, but the real election game.

Election game:

This strategy is amazing. The way you split counties to reassure and get more loyalty from the new LDC then before. Therefore doing this so close to the election makes the 40 new counties and 40 new MPs. Also open up new constituency and voter’s numbers that need to be secure to get the MP for a county in. Thirdly and last point is that the history of voting in an area get diminish because the new counties. This will lead to smaller counties and need less people to vote the MP in the area. That can be either a gift or a curse. That the counties are getting to be smaller populations so that their easier to manipulate since their no current voting history in this counties. So that the loyalist will get more positions during next elections and also getting new LDCs that will supposedly to give the local community more control and also support the governments work in the areas. Like getting supervision over the primary school and police I guess. But we all know that this is more securing the NRM government more control over the areas and getting the loyal supporters of the Mzee becoming MPs and also making new counties to disfranchise the opposition if possible. That this  areas are also in places where the Independent MPs are coming from and just a few big shots like Kahinda Otafiire. I look forward to see the results from the Presidential General Election of 2016. Hope you do as well in the new counties and see if the MPs from the 9th Parliament will arrive from the new counties.

Just a by the way – on the information flow:

The irony of it all, I couldn’t find the MPs on the Parliaments own site or government official sites online. I found the best by the sites that are targeted by the government. Like the lists from Uganda at Heart had an awesome and amazing list. Second list was from an anti-corruption NGO from Uganda. So the one that isn’t supposed to be friendly with the government is the one that has organized it the best and that is a rare instance. Because a brother expect to easily see who represent them. Taxation with representation, the parliament page of the Ugandan government isn’t sufficient or a page that is really working. Hope that Hostalite and make them a better page indeed. And the Parliament Watch site was ten times better. Where I could double check the result of the General Election of 2011 was from the elected MPs from the Electoral Commission of Uganda. I am grateful that one supposed to be unbiased governmental institution has certain information to the public so I could verify what I found at Uganda at Heart and also the information from Parliamentary Watch. Thanks! Peace.

Reference:

Kisakye, Frank – ‘Govt creates 39 new counties, number of MPs rises to 424’ (15.07.2015) Link: http://www.observer.ug/news-headlines/38782-govt-creates-39-new-counties-mps-rise-to-424

Today Amama Mbabazi starts walking through the desert

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This day we have a special announcement that Yoweri Kaguta Musveni isn’t the only presidential candidate in the NRM or National Resistance Movement Party (Walubiri, 2015). We all know that the other parties have gone together in a Democratic Alliance that happened on the 10.06.2015.  This here will not be on that, but will be hard to separate from the latest revelation.

Now a new path will JPAM or Amama Mbabazi walk on the way to preliminary election to be the main candidate in the NRM. Though we all in our hearts now the end-game as long as Yoweri Museveni walks himself on mother earth. This will not be a real election. There will be certain speeches and balloting, but the end result will be in his favor, but in the party and nationally in the General Election of 2016.

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We all who has followed them know that their former weapon brothers who have kept each other close. No one would deny that. If you have followed Amama Mbabazi you know he has scruples. This will be played in this power struggle. Not only use of UPF to get rid of campaign people for the Ex-VP. We all know that. There will be because of the Public Order Management Act (POMB) and 3 day rule. Some of us know that the powers want allow them to gather. Because that makes NRM into two vicious fractions: the ones supporting Museveni and the other supporting Mbabazi. Mbabazi has had strong support in the NRM Youth leaders who has endorsed him (Katusabe, 2015). Even today on the Uganda Youth Platform they endorsed him too. Their statement on facebook was: “We as members of uganda youth platform want to fustinctively thank Hon. Amama mbabazi upon his declaratin! This is good for the struggle to dislodge the dictatorship. Bravo”. So we sure know that Amama Mbabazi has a base. It’s surfacing.

But we all know the tricks of the grand master. He will not release and loose this at any price. I am sure he will pull out all of his election mechanisms and trades. That he has stocked up. Finally he will address all the scandals of Mbabazi. The reasons why hasn’t done that yet or done anything else then clipping his wings. It is because Museveni knows that if this all goes public, he can also shame him and put dirt on him as well.

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After he sent him into a special exile we have all wonder what his step would be. Would he join forces with the opposition like FDC, UPC or DP? Be friendly to Gilbert Bukenya, Mugisha Muntu, Dr. Kizza Besigye or Olara Otunnu? No, he haven’t made any significant relationship with these people? No! He is going solo in the great party of Museveni.

The former weapon brothers are sudden “enemies” and wishing the big-chair at the Parliament. But there can only be one winner. No matter what kind of alliance the opposition parties and candidates they have against the NRM candidate. They will struggle and have hardships. The EC is often rigged. Dr. Kizza Besigye knows this. All of Uganda knows this. Even if FDC has won some by-elections in the past like recent the one in Amuru by-election 20th November when Lucy Akello won the seat there. But this is small fry compared to the real deal of going against the almighty chief. The boss that has been seated in-charge since 1986. The man who took power with the gun and after promised twice to step down. First was that he was supposed to retire after the 2001. Then he changed added an amendment to the constitution on 2005. So he could be elected again in 2006. And so is the saga until this day of today. We are now running towards the General election 2016 which happens to be 15 years after his first promise of retirement. And now Mbabazi will be into the fire and get with a goat in the desert.

He might have the endorsement from certain type of voters. Even inside of the party. But he will have to fight the man who “built” him and “let him be”. Now Museveni will do everything to discredit him. Take all kind of ammunition of corruption, nepotism and other misgivings that has happen since the NRM took power.

Now will Museveni does what he can, even if Mbabazi could drop knowledge on him, because Mbabazi got a stamp okay to do it or even so, Museveni just let him do it in the past. Now that it will surface and the stink will be smelling for days. Mbabazi might even feel a bit alone at times. Because now Museveni will ask for loyalty, which means that those who are behind him will get paid, those that don’t will be shut out or shunned by the party. Just like the NRM Youth leaders who endorsed him. They lost their spot and positions. While those who stand by Museveni will prosper. That’s his system. In reality the Movement System has become a place of finding those who are loyal in the rural areas and does who will follow conformed message of the leadership without asking. They will over time get a piece for their contribution. Even if their lucky get their district shut in two so they can get more leadership funding and balance, last and least securing loyalty to the chief in the parliament in Kampala.

Therefore when you have a system built for loyalty to one man. Then a former fellow comrade, weapon-brother or friend goes against you. It will be a long road. Mbabazi will walk alone on this one. He will be burned in the desert. The sun will not leave much shade. Every piece of bad blood of his past will now crack open. I as many others know that he is a corrupt man. Museveni is a corrupt man. But you, I and the world should know that by now. And if you’re surprised by that fact then do a little research. You’ll find enough articles and examples on how corrupt this two are.

They will know fight though not in front of the public. This will be in the background and in the shadows. The dirt and dust will land in public. New Vision will come with all ammunition on the dirt of Mbabazi. They have already started today. The journey through the desert is just starting for Amama Mbabazi or JPAM. Museveni will trigger all kind of works from the NRM that we haven’t seen in ages. To take a little quote from point blank: “this will be bloody!”

Good luck on your journey through the desert. Hope it will not be like Moses and last for 30 years. Mbabazi doesn’t have that time. Might his daughter have that, but not him. Museveni will not give this up easy. This will be special and how it will play out is now coming. If Mbabazi is going to get the Erias Lukwago and Dr. Kizza Besigye treatment is not sure of. But I wouldn’t be surprised: if he will get house-arrest in the future and can’t drive out his block to a campaign in Wandegye in Kampala. Or have to postpone meetings with delegates who support him because he will break with law of POMB. Certain things will happen in due time while he is in the desert. Peace.

Video of statement from Amama Mbabazi:

Reference:

Katusabe, Ruth & Bashime, Felix – ‘Three NRM youth leaders fired over links with Mbabazi’ (30.04.2015) Link: http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/NRM-youth-leaders-fired-links-Mbabazi/-/688334/2702094/-/6vcl1y/-/index.html

Walubiri, Moses – ‘Amama Mbabazi to run for president’ (15.06.2015) Link: http://www.newvision.co.ug/news/669767-amama-mbabazi-to-run-for-president.html

Picturesque: Mbabazi and Rugunda enjoying the Cranes against the Black Stars

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When the Ghana Black Stars played the Uganda Cranes today in Kampala. This match was at Nambole Stadium. It isn’t special or significant that politicians and other ‘big men’ shows up at events like this. On the other hand nobody else expected this. Was the view of the former PM Amama Mbabazi and the newly appointed PM Ruhakana Rugunda. They we’re sitting and enjoying the match. This must make the boss, the Mzee extremly pleased where his sitting. You know I didn’t mean the last remark. But this picture is telling that the tales that is coming and going towards Mbabazi can’t be correct. Some games are coming and going. Sometimes you win and sometimes you loose, just like the Black Stars and the Cranes. Now let’s see where this takes us. Peace.