Ethiopia: Credible reports of a new offensive towards the Tigray region [and was the “Humanitarian Truce” a shield for international spin?]

There are now reports that on three fronts encircling the Tigray region. The Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) has sent soldiers by buses to re-group and strategically prepare to attack the Tigray region. The Tripartite Alliance has been silently awaiting the right time after leaving parts of the Tigray region last year.

In the “Survival Campaign” they entered the region, but didn’t continue to Mekelle or re-invade like they did in November 2020. Now in the end of March or early April it is maybe scheduled a new offensive to not only control Western Tigray. Which they have had under their reign and with the help of the Eritrean Defence Force (EDF).

The Amhara Para-Military Group “Fano” might return together with ENDF. Which wouldn’t shock anyone, as they have promised to defend the “motherland” and attack their enemies. The enemies being the Tigray.

If the reports are true… just like Ceasefire was announced as the state was losing grip and lost on the front-lines at the time. Now, they could use the headlines and news-cycles of positivity to shield itself from criticism. As the FDRE and ENDF could gear up on the borders for another way. Because, they have had the time train and re-structure the army. The reports are stating up to 230 buses has been directed from Dessie to Kobo. 

Since there have been no humanitarian convoy or any sign of aid to the Tigray region after the announcement. Neither, has there been any talks with the stakeholders or the ones in conflict. Meaning, it was an empty statement made for headlines and not the reality. To spin the news in positive favour and trying to overlook the realities on the ground, which is very dire … a man-made famine, starvation and people dying over lack of medicines. That is what the state has delivered the Tigray region for months upon end since November 2020. Therefore, as I suspected… it was a smoke-screen for something more sinister.

The FDRE and their allies was gearing for war. They are now sending troops and military equipment to different fronts. Preparing for another “campaign” or “offensive” to end the Tigray Defence Force… alas… that they have tried a few times already, but to no avail.

We should expect soon orders and a full scale attack on Tigray from the Tripartite Alliance. That is on the horizon and there will be another bloodshed in the name of the Peace Prize winning Prime Minister Ahmed Ali Abiy. Peace.

Ethiopia: Organizations call for immediate intervention to protect His Holiness, Abune Mathias I, Patriarch of the EOTC (26.03.2022)

Ethiopia: Afar People’s Party – The Afar People’s Party Statement on the truce deal between FDRE and TPLF (26.03.2022)

The Afar People’s Party (APP) understand the Intentional humanitarian law, also know as the law of war and or law of armed conflict and how it guarantee the rights of Civilians in it’s four of Geneva Conventions and Additional Protocol I and II.

Therefore, APP adheres to The Humanitarian law as it intended principally for the parties to the conflict and protects every individual or category of individuals not or no longer actively involved in the conflict.

The APP is Committed to the fundamental purpose of international humanitarian law to end the suffering caused by war by protecting and assisting its victims as

far as possible.

The Afar People’s Party also understands the recent statements from federal government and Tigray regional government positively. as the first step of both sides to halt the war and it might be even clear the path to possibilities of further arrest the war permanently if handled carefully.

The Afar People’s Party is however, sceptical about the fact that both sides are not trustworthy enough. They are trying to use all their maximum capacity to isolate and neglect the main stakeholder of this agreement, the Afar People by ignoring the reality on the ground.

It’s crystal clear from federal and Tigray region’s statements, that they want to avoid the Afar People’s interest, ignoring the fact that they want to use Afar corridor as a major route to deliver humanitarian assistance to Tigray, neglecting the truth about encroachment and occupation of Afar Land by TPLF and downplaying the atrocities, violations of basic human rights and acute humanitarian crisis in Afar.

The Afar People’s Party is willing to play a positive role in the making of peace and stability in Ethiopia. Ending these reckless battles and hostilities and stop human suffering immediately and permanently while prioritizing the Afar People’s interest and collective well being of Ethiopians is our main objective.

Therefore, the Afar People’s Party calls upon:

1.The International community to understand the critical importance and role of the Afar People. The Dire humanitarian situation should be taken into account. APP requests from the international community and government to give equal & fair attention for nearly 700,000 Afar IDPs mainly women, children, & elderly people in all humaniterian aspects evicted from their homes by the terrorist TPLF forces.

2. To cooperate and deliver the badly needed humanitarian assistance smoothly, and more importantly to build more trust for further collaborations, The TPLF aggressors must ceasefire and must withdraw from Afar immediately and unconditionally . If they have real security concerns, they can deal with the federal government about it.

3.The federal and regional governments must contain the horror of this conflict through the deployment of ENDF, the hundreds of thousands of IDPs should return to their homes with peace guaranteed and life saving as well as rehabilitation programs must begin immediately.

4.The intentional community to understand that our main concern this time, is another round of conflict between Afars and federal government, if they continue the way they are handling the issue, and their systemic betrayal of Afaris self defense. We are carefully following the very smart way of the federal government trying to scape responsibility and portray the Afar people as a trouble maker and obstacle in the process of dealing with TPLF.

Afar will defend itself from any Illegal activities and will maintain its interest whilst working very genuinely and honestly to achieve mutual benefit of all parties.

Ethiopia: Tigray External Affairs Office – Update on the “Humanitarian Truce” (26.03.2022)

Ethiopia: Statement on HR6600 from One Amhara, Amhara Youth Association and Amhara Youth Association (25.03.2022)

Ethiopia: The Humanitarian Truce of 2022 is declared like the Ceasefire in July 2021

This is really repetitive and not going anywhere. As yesterday’s late release of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia release of the “Humanitarian Truce” without seemingly have had any dialogue or contact with the stakeholders. This is making agreements and a truce without talking to the parties involved. Only having the state working on it’s own without recognizing the other party.

We know the bureaucracy of the FDRE has made it impossible together with allies on the border regions of Tigray. These has blocked, looted and ensured that no humanitarian aid has entered. If not just drops of the vast sea of needs, which is part of the war that Tripartite Alliance has prolonged against the Tigray.

For me this is reminding the time that FDRE said they announced a ceasefire in late July 2021 after continues war since November 2020. The regional government of Tigray asked for similar in the December 2021, but then the FDRE and it’s allies wouldn’t comply to it. Now in the end of March 2022 they are announcing a Humanitarian Truce. Which haven’t been made or with direct talks between Mekelle and Addis Ababa.

Prosperity Party have not reached out to the parties in Tigray Region, Amhara Region or in Afar Region for that matter. They have only decided to do this… because there is a law and possible sanctions on the horizon from the United States. The FDRE is trying to manufacture or ensure positive publicity.

While the state haven’t opened up the utilities like water, electricity or phone-lines. Neither is any of the other bureaucratic hurdles been opened up. Unless, they have suddenly ceased their mission of oversight and needed to sign of humanitarian convoys. Which has been an issue through the whole war.

On schedule the African Union statement said this: “The Chairperson of the African Union Commission, His Excellency, Moussa Faki Mahamat welcomes the Declaration of an indefinite Humanitarian Truce by the Government of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia in an effort to expedite the provision of much needed humanitarian aid to people in need in the Tigray region. The Chairperson further welcomes the announcement by the Regional Government of Tigray committing to observe the said humanitarian truce, and also welcomes its declaration of an immediate cessation of hostilities” (AU, 25.03.2022).

I am pretty sure something similar was written last year. The Tigray Regional Government had some stipulations, which time will tell if the FDRE will comply. Since they have worked with a mission of annihilation and total destruction of that region. That seems to be the goal of the “Operation Law Enforcement” and the “Survival Campaign”. However, they might say otherwise, but both statements and visions of high ranking official has said similar things.

That’s why the FDRE has to do more than statements and actually talk with the stakeholders. Which is something that will humiliate and also show grace. As that is the only way out… but we have seen how the Dialogue have been done and that isn’t promising. It is only a ploy and a nice title like the Ministry of Peace, which has only been used to boost the war-effort. Therefore, the FDRE and their ministries has a job to do. The stakeholders has to be connected and build trust.

If not… this truce is as worthless as the ceasefire of last year. Which was only made to re-group and try with new offensives against the Tigray. Peace.

Ethiopia: Tigray External Affairs Office – Statement by the Government of Tigray on Cessation of Hostilities (24.03.2022)

Ethiopa: Declaration of a Humanitarian Truce by the Government of Ethiopia (24.03.2022)

Ethiopia: Oromo Liberation Front/Army (OLF/A) – State-Sanctioned Ethnic Cleansing of Oromos from Benishangul Gumuz has continued (24.03.2022)

Ethiopia: Advocacy Organizations Urge the Senate Foreign Relations Committee to Pass the Ethiopia Peace and Democracy Promotion Act (23.03.2022)