Today President Donald J. Trump through the “deal” or “agreement” made between the Kingdom of Morocco and Israel. Have ensured that the Kingdom can annex the “Southern” provinces or Western Sahara or the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic. Because of the support of the Polisario Front, the government in-exile have claimed the independence and own state. However, the Kingdom of Morocco have claimed it after Mauritania “left it”.
This is why it’s really unfortunate that the Trump Administration in its final stages are arranging a “legal annexation” of Western Sahara. This will further escalate the “cold-war” between the neighbours of Algeria and Morocco. Who already fought the Sand Wars over the same territory. As the Algerian government is supporting the Polisario Front. While Morocco wants to keep a bigger territory. Where they can also enforce its control, extract its resources and sell the fish abroad. Which it does and have done.
This Israel-Morocco deal is surely to give another “victory” in the supposed legacy of Trump. However, this might be remembered for further escalation and cause more problems for the UN Mission in Western Sahara (MINUSRO). A UN Mission which will in trouble and cause issues about brokered peace deal of 1991. This will most likely hurt these endeavourers and cause more harm.
The Government-in-Exile will surely be hit by this and the Algerian allies will react to this. The support from all across the continent will react too. As there been a long history of solidarity across the African liberation movements in support of the independence of SADR. Therefore, today’s actions thwart that.
It is a sad day. As this is throwing a Molotov cocktail into the conflict and probably causing more frictions, tensions and escalations between Algeria-Morocco. Since both parties are invested in it and has their pride in this.
The United Nations needs to mediate. The African Union needs to get active before Algeria, Polisario Front or Morocco annexes it officially. Not only “holding” the territory, but taking full ownership. That would cause such harm and we would have a cross border battle. Also, possibly involve more Republics. As the surge for support of the cause and secure its benefactors.
The Kingdom of Morocco might cheer today. However, that is all false celebrations. As they are colonizing an area, which isn’t their to have. It is the SADR and not “Southern provinces”. Let’s that be clear.
There is a need for solidarity on this and the people of SADR. The Sahrawi deserves recognition. It is their birthright. It is not for Morocco too take. Trump is an erratic bullshitter and ego-maniac. That man doesn’t care about the consequences as long as he gets a cut or pay-off. We can wonder what that is here, but with time the price will eventually leak.
The SADR isn’t something you bargain for cheap. It isn’t a commodity you sell. It is a Republic that shouldn’t be for sale. However, Trump easily sold the Kurds out too. So, this follows a pattern. Peace.
After Zimbabwe, people have started to blaze the horns and expecting other dictators to fall. Well, I am humbly saying, I hope so, but don’t expect so. Unless, there are vital changes, unless they lose their support and their weapons behind them. If the support and armies are not behind them, than the Robert Mugabe story can be repeated elsewhere. But it will be different from state to state, from president to president. As each President has built around a stronger or weaker system of orders, strength of institutions and also personal cult around themselves. We also know they are using their myths and their state media to serve their interests.
President’s that I will honor with a mention are Joseph Kabila, Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, Pierre Nkurunziza, Faure Gnassingbe, Hailemariam Desalegn, Isias Afwerki, Omar Al-Bashir, Idriss Deby, Paul Biya, Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasango, Mahamadou Issoufou, Paul Kagame and Ismaïl Omar Guelleh. These are a list of honorable mentions, there several more that could be put on a list, but these was the first to mention, if feel someone is left behind. Please leave that in the comments down below(I know that sounds like a Youtuber, but I had to take inspiration from somewhere).
All of these men in their republics knows that they use power and security organizations to quell, silence and oppress their opposition. They are keeping control of the state reserves and has their party as filled of loyalists and cronies. All of this states are militarized, there is state controlled media and has various of different rules. They are strict and controlling from the state houses and the freedom in these states are limited. The state and business are usually connected with the President and his family. If not there are cronies who also have business and fortunes. So the dictators are for the moment having control and making sure the people is not uprising.
What we can know is that if these dictators take it to far and the fear for the repercussion from the state. So as long as the public and opposition are detained for arbitrary arrests and citizens hurt after demonstrations. While the state reserves and donor funds are eaten by the elite, while the countries are kept poor. As long as the republic’s are poor, than they still need more foreign donors and supply. So it is good for the dictators to keep their nations poor, as the Western and Multi-National Organization can continue to supply them with non-binding funds. That they are free to use on military and one themselves, instead of building institutions and good governance, it is all controlled by the one man on top and his loyal subjects around.
This is well known and for different reasons, these men should always worry about their decisions and their capacity to rule. Nothing last for ever. There will be some who might want to take their place and replace them. Someone will always be opposition and fight for democratic values, but sooner or later they will succeed. It is just a matter of how and how long it takes.
They are all based on strong military control, even minor specialized groups who are like Presidential Guards/Republican Guards or Special Forces. These are controlled usually by either relations or trusted generals, who are loyal not to turn against the President. The Presidents promotes and demotes leaders inside their armies often, the same in the police force/service to compensate and also to make sure the old guard of warrior and soldiers who fought for the President. Will not be seen as a threat or have power to ever topple him. That is why they are trying to distance themselves from the ones who brought them to power, because they will know their inner-tactics; that is why the stalwarts and historicals are more public personas, but not people of power. Even if they did have so in past.
That is done to secure the role and secure the commander-in-chief, even the President always need the historical battles and origin story to keep himself relevant and prove his place. He don’t needs ones who fought with him and his cause. They will just ask for checks- and balances on the promises made in liberation and in the battles against previous oppressors. That is why they are not entangled with these, unless they give them phony medals and grant money, to hopefully silence them.
Still, with all the protocol and strength of the army, they are still vulnerable as they know this too. That why they are calculating and trying to find out the next person who wants their role and their positions. Which is why there are changes in their cabinets, Vice-Presidents and Prime Ministers. Until they find persons and people they trust to not ambitions to overpower them. Also, they want to stop other MPs and other voices to install hope in the population and to create popularity that is bigger then their personal cult and their teachings.
However, there are ways to bring them down by actually not fearing the state security organizations, waiting for the President to act swiftly without feeling the tensions within his own party. Like President Robert Mugabe did recently. If not actually know you have lost all legitimacy in recent elections, but not willing to step down like Yayha Jammeh. That was ECOWAS and Senegal who intervened on behalf of the newly elected President. Which was the reason for the dictator ending in Exile recently.
Therefore, we have to hope for leaders who have capacity to capture the pulse of the people who are oppressed, of the ones who are marginalized and the ones who are captured by the state. Since the dictatorships doesn’t give up easy, unless there is no escape. History has learned us that and therefore, the lesson needs to be learned. We in our time cannot give in and accept that the liberty, freedom and government are taken by one elite and one ruler.
Certainly, it will not be easy, the fight against oppressors will cost and take time. That is proven time in and time out. The same will happen here, but with their aging and their lack of control. Their trust in family members and trying to create family dynasties. They might fall like Mugabe. Even if some are sons of former presidents. Doesn’t mean they can continue owning the title and running the state. It is proven that is not accepted and that is all within reason. This is what happen in Zimbabwe and we understand if similar events transpire elsewhere.
In the end it is all up to the public for change, the public reactions and their demonstrations, boycotts and their inner works to dismantle the oppressive dictatorship. Often the international community and international counterparts will not intervene as they wants mineral resources and other commodities for cheap; and as long one partner can be bribed, the workers and resources don’t need to paid-in-full or proper. This prospers foreign investments and multi-national companies. This is not well-spoken of, but should be revealed, as it is so often shady dealings with resources sold or land to investors from these dictators. They are funding the state and military, that together with aid are keeping these regimes afloat.
With all this in mind, we have to continue the struggle against these men that are keeping people hostage and taking away freedom and liberty, freedom to assembly and to be activists. They are licensing and authorizing businesses and if people are allowed to have parties and civil society organizations. This are all in different ways, the same with the media and other public ways of sharing information. These are often controlled like all else are in society and in the republic.
We can just wonder if we let this repeat itself, let them continue to oppress and letting these multi-national corporations earn on this forms of government. If we can accept that aid and multi-national organizations keeping budgets and keeping them as leaders, because if these leaders would struggle more economically, more loyalists and more cronies would actually deflect quicker. Also, that if the economy struggle and the security organizations are not paid-off. They could instead of turning their weapons against the public, they could turn against the government/regime. So there are many ways together with public uprising that is needed to topple these dictatorships. Peace.
Dear Sir Honorable Joseph Nkaissery!
I write to you again, I know it’s been a month or so, but the actions have to be questioned and the liability of the actions you do Honourable Minister or Cabinet Secretary of the Ministry of Interior Affairs and Coordination of National Government. You have an ability of making decisions that area allowed to be questioned.
I am not writing to you because I am not defending terrorism, because I am not, the Garissa University attack, the Lamu Attack and Westgate attack in Nairobi was sad and unfortunate as innocent Kenyans died while Islamist, went in and killed without impunity; that has to be answered and those actions should not control the agenda of the country, but give way to the liberties and freedoms that the citizens are rights to have. While the Government finds ways of charging and hunting down the men who are behind these hideous crimes.
But, the use of Terrorism to close down Daadab Refugee Camp seems a bit premature.
As this was even stated by academics on the matter in 2014:
“The speaker said that the Dadaab Camp is not an engine for radicalization; rather, it is an engine of moderation. Poverty and displacement do not automatically lead to radicalization. There is a growing need for more anthropological research on the topic. An entire generation has grown up in peace; it is not scarred by war” (…)”More political and economic analysis is needed on this issue. The Kenyans claim to be in charge but al Shabaab remains everywhere. The Kenyans do not have the level of control that they claim. A lot of the radicalism that is currently being seen in Mombasa is very local. Al-Shabaab is also present in Nairobi. Many al-Shabaab suspects are Kenyan nationals. Terrorism is a wider, urban East African problem” (Rawlence, 2014).
So if the man behind Open Society have claims two years ago that can counter your arguments now for closing, can you bring evidence can show that Rawlence is totally wrong, please honourable Sir?
Hon. Joseph Nkaissery I hate to do this as this is your set of laws and the ones that set the guidelines for your government until you get the National Assembly or Parliament to change it with a general vote.
So for now the law of Kenyan Refugee Act of 2006 says this:
“18. No Person shall be refused entry into Kenya, expelled, extradited from Kenya or returned to any other country or to subject any similar measure if, as result of such refusal, expulsion, return or other measure, such person is compelled to return or remain in the country where –
The law is clear and doesn’t seem that it is too important for you, if these laws is still applied then the closure still gives them rights as Refugees or as legal persons in the territory where you are the Cabinet Ministry Nkaissery. I know that shouldn’t be too much to ask that the Kenyan Government are following the laws of the land? Of does this not apply to the refugees and the ones that have left Somalia, Ethiopia or South Sudan because of oppression and aggression there?
In 2015 John Kerry and the United States pledged $40m directly to the Refugee Camps, so they must have had a say in the planned closure you had of the camps last year, with the new idea of trying to do it again.
Here is his latest statement to you Hon. Nkaissery:
“We strongly urge the Government of Kenya to maintain its longstanding leadership role in protecting and sheltering victims of violence and trauma, consistent with its international obligations. We call on Kenya to uphold these international obligations and not forcibly repatriate refugees” (…)”We call on Kenya to continue its support for refugees and voluntary return efforts, and to continue to work with UNHCR and partner nations to find durable solutions that respect humanitarian standards and uphold international law. We also urge the Government of Kenya to honor its responsibilities, including the 2013 Tripartite Agreement on the voluntary repatriation of Somali refugees living in Kenya” (…)”We remain committed to working with Kenya to support voluntary returns that are safe, dignified and consistent with international law, as well as helping Kenya to address security concerns presented by al-Shabaab and other extremist groups” (Kerry, 2016).
So Honourable Minister CS. John Nkaissery, you have lots of responsibility and have to swallow lots of crap in your days in office, while Deputy President William Ruto and President Uhuru Kenyatta got to do the fun stuff and sign decrees and words into laws. You have to clean up behind the scenes and act upon the ideas these two men have. So I am sure the stress is coming to you and therefore is so seldom that the pundits and public see you charming smile.
We are not at the point that the Terrorism claim, I don’t feel you can validate that as a reason for the closure of the camp, unless you have evidence you send to me Hon. Nkaissery. I am an advisory, but until I am proven wrong, I will not change my mind. As you are playing your cards this way, is to try filtering the world away from assassination plot that we’re on Jacob Juma or is the something else you want the world to forget? The Pre-Election violence twice in Nairobi under Nairobi Metropolitan Police Commander Japhet Koome towards the Cord Demonstrations, is this right or am I wrong hon. Nkaissery?
But to get back to reality and not the conspiracies that might run as the Kenyan Government said they would close the Refugee Camps last year in 2015. When as I said United States Government pledged more money to run them and filter it through the United Nations programs.
Seems more like this is a way of scaring the international groups, multinational organizations and all to give direct funds to Kenyan Government instead of taking it direct to the Refugee Camp. If not I hope you get a Task Force that really looks into your allegations and also delivers the findings so they can be looked through and are more believable than the financials from Donald Trump.
There are questions that remains Hon. Nkaissery because the issues and the rights, even the laws that are still viable and official guidelines for the refugees and citizens in Kenya, make a brother like me question the rhetoric you have used and arguments. So please take care of the action you do. This here will be greater stain on the Jubilee Alliance Party (JAP), and you don’t want that as a Cabinet Secretary that creates tensions with the allies abroad that both gives your army funding and equipment together with direct budget aid. That would not be wise… Though I understand Hon. Nkaissery that you care about the refugees and their safety even if you close them; because for many of them have been living there for a long time and they could be by many means Kenyan citizens with Somali ethnicity for instance.
Would you clear the Kibera slum and the areas around as the Rawlence claimed that the terrorist and extremist was more likely in Urban areas, and Kibera is Urban and also uncontrolled in some ways. So why are you not focused on the development of Kibera that you have Dr. Evan Kidero, the loyal Governor can access the situation for you and find ways to monitor the extremist that might be trained there? Because, if a so-called expert Rawlence can be some people who becomes violent in urban areas, and that is not politely the Dadaab Refugee Camp. So it must be more political than actual be the reason for the closing as they either want to show character or independence over the Multi-National Organization and the International donors, as a sovereign state.
Hon. Nkaissery, we both know that Kenya is a Sovereign State and because of that have freedoms to do what they want on their territory, but they have international obligation. You and I know that Kenya has internal laws and also have to keep their international laws considering the rights of refugees. Still, you can act this way, but will you consider the implications and the ramifications of this. Even if the European states are considering and signing agreements to ship the Syrian Refugees from Greece, to Turkey; that does not send direct flight back to Palmyra, Syria, as much as you don’t want to be remembered for sending back Somali Refugees from Dadaaab Refugee Camp to hostels in Mogadishu, Somalia. Or will you?
I am just worried for these innocent fleeing human beings who has fled their homeland for safety in Kenya, as much as I am worried for the Syrian who are fleeing to Greece and being transported to Turkey. I condemn that and would condemn if the Kenyan transport these men and woman to Mogadishu in the midst of fighting and continuation of AMISOM mission in Somalia.
I know I am nobody, but I had to address it and ask you why you want to, as I also question quickly the biggest argument for closing. As I don’t believe until there are serious report and evidence of the terrorism threat from Dadaab Refugee Camp, and why you don’t check more Kibera slums of Nairobi, but that would hurt your pride, right? Wouldn’t it Hon. Nkaissery, or am I wrong?
Write of Minbane.
Rawlence, Ben – ‘Somali Refugees in Kenya: The Case of the Dadaab Camp’ (08.05.2014) link: https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/files/chathamhouse/field/field_document/2014Somali%20Refugees%20in%20Kenya.pdf
Kerry, John – ‘On Kenya’s Announcement to End Hosting of Refugees’ (11.05.2016) link: http://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2016/05/257113.htm
Earlier report on the matter:
Also this one: