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The President’s black book chapter 2: The close tie between the GoU and M23; giving instantly amnesty to the guerilla; which make it seem more likely that it was a proxy war for the government

M23 Cartoon

There isn’t often I have gone through so many United Nations documents to pile up information about one single militias or guerilla force in the DRC. This is because I have had a suspicious feeling about the connection to the government of Uganda, as they have been busy before in the Democratic Republic of Congo, as they have done with their partners in Kigali, President Kagame and Government of Rwanda. As we will see here, this is the facts that the UN have claimed by their eye-witnesses, Amama Mbabazi is the man who has defended the Government of Uganda, he had to come with a threat towards the United Nations to silent this. Therefore you haven’t heard much about it…

As this will go first by year it is published, first you can read the defense of the Government of Uganda, then the evidence brought by the United Nations different committees and institutions from the “the Expert Group” and so on. This is interesting reading and should give you insights to a world the Rwandan and Ugandan government does not want the world to question, as much as they don’t want the questions come about the killing of Laurent Kabila… as that question the manner of how they brought a new regime in the Democratic Republic of Congo, this here is newer and fresher, close to today, as it then is more evidence that the UN has collected, and has pictured in their archives. Therefore take a look and hope it opens your mind.

Museveni Mbabazi

Part of Uganda Government defense against the allegation made by Amama Mbabazi:
“About the same time, H.E. Joseph Kabila, President of DRC, contacted President Museveni and explicitly requested him to intervene and facilitate dialogue between M23 and DRC Government. In accordance with article 23(2) of the Pact on Security, Stability and Development in the Great Lakes Region, President Museveni convened four Extra-Ordinary Summits of the International Conference of the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) on the security situation in Eastern DRC, three of which were hosted in Kampala using Uganda’s own resources” (…)”The UN must sort out the malignancy against Uganda by bringing out the truth about Uganda’s role in the current Regional efforts” (…)”In light of the above, withdrawing from Somalia, CAR, etc., becomes inevitable so that we keep watch on the DRC territory donated to the terrorists by the DRC Government and the United Nations” (Mbabazi, 2012).

5th Extraordinary Summit of the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region declaration on M23 and violence in DRC:
“Gravely concerned about the advance and capture of the city of Goma and the town of Sake in Kivu Province, of the DRC, by the M23 rebel movement in spite of the directive of the previous Summits of ICGLR to cease hostilities and remain in positions they occupied in July 2012” (…)”HEREBY DECIDE AS FOLLOWS:” (…)”MONUSCO to occupy and provide security in the neutral zone between Goma and the new areas occupied by M23” (…)”This process shall be supervised by Chiefs of Defence of Rwanda, DRC and led by the Chief of Defence Forces of Uganda, with the participation of other Chiefs of Defence Staff from other member states”(ICGLR, 2012).

First piece of evidence:
“The report also accuses Uganda of backing the M23, providing troops and ammunition for specific military operations” (P: 5, Gil, 2012).

m23_in_goma

Government of Uganda Support of M23:
“Senior Government of Uganda (GoU) officals have also provided support to M23 in the form of direct troop reinforcement in DRC territory, weapons deliveries, technical assistance, joint planning, political advice, and facilitation of external relations, Units of Ugandan People’s Defence Force (UPDF) and Rwandan Defence Force (RDF) jointly supported M23 in a series of attacks in July 2012 to take over the major town in Rutshuru territory, and the Forces Armees de la RDC (FARDC) base of Rumanbago” (P: 2, 2012). “Uganda’s more subtle support to M23 allowed the rebel group’s political branch to operate from within Kampala and boost its external relations” (P: 4, 2012). “UPDF Commanders sent troops and weapons to reinforce specific M23 operations and assisted in the M23’s recruitment and weapons procurement efforts in Uganda. Ugandan officials equally endorsed a “laissez-faire” policy authorizing local military and civil authorities to cooperate with M23 out of their personal ties to the RDF or the rebels” (UN, P: 9, 2012).

Weapons delivery to M23 from Uganda:
“Former M23 soldiers stated that UPDF officers based in Kisoro have been supplying M23 with small quantiles of weapons. One former M23 soldier said he hadaccompanied Makenga to Kisoro on three occasions at the beginning of July 2012” (…)”A former M23 soldier stated that UPDF commanders brought heavy weapons including 12,7 mm machine guns to the hill overlook Bunagana, on the Ugandan side of the border, in order to reinforce M23 during the attack, and subsequently left them with the rebels after they took the town” (…)”Two former RDF officers, two FARDC officers, one M23 cadre and one former M23 soldier stated that two trucks transported weapons and ammunition to Bunagana prior to the attacks on Rutshuru and Kiwanja. According to one FARDC officer, the two trucks mainly contained RPG-7 grenade launchers and machines guns” (UN, P: 11-12, 2012).

M23 Picture

More on the connection with GoU:
“Four Ugandan officials, an FARDC officer based in Bunagana, border agents as well as a former CNDP politician told the group that the Jomba Groupment chief based in Bunagana, Vincent Mwambutsa, regularly travels to Kisoro to organize recruitment and financial contributions for M23 with the Resident District Commander (RDC) of Kisoro, Milton Bazanye, his ally Willbaforce Nkundizana and local UPDF officers. One former M23 soldier confirmed that the rebels recruited 28 Ugandan civillians in Kisoro. A Ugandan official in Kisoro personally witnessed the UPDF taking recruits to the border” (UN, P: 12, 2012).

Ugandan known leaders and personalities involved in support of M23:
“A UPDF officer, a Ugandan leader, an M23 cadre, politicians, intelligence sources, a Kampala based diplomat and several businessmen stated that Gen. Salim Selah has been principal responsible for UPDF support of M23” (…)”A Ugandan Civil Society member, two M23 cadres and a Ugandan counter-intelligence report also affirmed that UPDF Western Division commander, General Patrick Kankiriho, has overseen military support to M23, including providing orders to Mukasa” (…)”Three Ugandan officials stated that in May and July 2012, General Kayihura held meetings with the rebels at Kisoro” (UN, P: 13, 2012).

Ugandan trading with illegal DRC gold:
“The Group estimates that 98 percent of the gold produced in DRC is smuggled out of the country, and that nearly all of the gold traded in Uganda – the main transit country for Congolese gold – is illegally exported from DRC. As a result, the governments of DRC and Uganda are losing millions of dollars annually in tax revenue, and tolerating a system that is financing armed groups in DRC” (UN, P: 1, 2013).

M23 Goma

One Connection between M23 and Uganda:
“The Ugandan army spokesperson stated that the former M23 “are not prisoners; they are soldiers running away from a war so we are receiving them and helping them because it is our responsibility.”28 He also compared the reception of M23 to what Uganda had done in 2012 when a Congolese army battalion had fled into Ugandan territory following fighting with the M23. President Museveni later indicated that he would not hand over Makenga to Congolese authorities and compared protecting him to the same support he gave Laurent Kabila against Mobutu in 1996” (…)”After being disarmed and registered at a Ugandan army facility in Kisoro on 13 November 2013, most of the former M23 fighters were transferred to the Bihanga military training center near Kasese” (…)”According to latest reports, Makenga and Kaina remain under Ugandan surveillance, while other former M23 officers and political leaders are reportedly able to move freely in Uganda” (SSPC, P:4-5, 2014).

AMISOM 32

Ugandan implications:
“Uganda, it is important to note, has received relatively little reprimand despite its implication in supporting M23. Its contribution of roughly one third of peacekeeping troops to the high-priority AMISOM mission, and threat to withdraw those troops in response to the GoE’s allegations, is likely a major factor in that lack of attention” (Jackson, 2013).

Findings from the M23 declaration:
“Recalling its declaration at Kampala, Uganda, on the 5th November 2013 that it had renounced rebellion and requested its ex-combatants to prepare for the process of disbarment, demobilization and social reintegration” (…)”Declares as follows: End of rebellion. M23 confirms it has renounced its rebellion. Amnesty: The M23 accepts that to benefit from the amnesty, each member of M23 shall be required to make a personal commitment in writing to refrain from the use of weapons or from participating in an insurgency movement to ensure success of any demand. Transitional security arrangements: The M23 commits itself to comply with and implement the transitional security arrangements, the details of which will be defined by the proposed Annex A as adjusted to reflect the changed situation on the ground, including the fact that some members of M23 fled to Uganda where they were received” (…)”M23 members reserve the right to change its name and become a political party accordance with the constitution and laws of DRC” (M23, 2013).

Risky move of amnesty to M23 member and combatants:
“The FIB’s impact was twofold. Most obviously, it had a military role, both in supporting the Congolese military (Forces Armées de la République Démocratique du Congo, or FARDC) and in taking the fight directly to the M23, deploying sophisticated technology such as South African attack helicopters. But perhaps more importantly, it changed the dynamics of regional politics. In raising the political stakes for the M23 and its putative backers, particularly Rwanda, it forced them into a choice between allowing the group to be defeated or – in essence – declaring open war on the SADC. The result is that the east of the DRC, for the first time in many years, is no longer held hostage by rebel groups with significant links to neighbouring governments, though these undoubtedly remain. It was a high-risk move, and one that could have led the region back into inter-state conflict. But M23’s backers instead chose to disengage, allowing the group to fragment, signing a series of agreements known as the Nairobi Declaration in December 2013. Though it has not faded entirely – former M23 combatants, many of whom are currently in Uganda and Rwanda, represent a latent threat of re-mobilization that urgently needs to be addressed – the group is no longer able to directly shape events in eastern DRC” (Shepard, 2014).

M23 Goma P3

The situation of M23 by August 2015:

“At this stage, the amnesty provision and the repatriation process of the reportedly over 1,400 ex-M23 combatants which fled to Uganda and Rwanda in 2013 are amongst the most contentious. To date, only 182 ex-M23 combatants have been repatriated from Uganda to the DRC, while 13 have been repatriated from Rwanda. According to Ugandan sources, as of 4 August, 817 ex-M23 combatants are cantoned at the Bihanga Military Camp. About 327 residents of the camp have deserted, with no clarity on their whereabouts, 14 are admitted in hospital, 25 departed on sick leaveand are yet to return, 4 are deceased. The presence of hundreds of ex-M23 and are yet to return, 4 are deceased. The presence of hundreds of ex-M23 combatants in Rwanda and Uganda remains a serious source of concern for the GoDRC and the host authorities in Uganda and Rwanda. Yet, despite several attempts by the GoDRC to expedite the repatriation of the ex-M23 combatants, in line with the Nairobi Declarations and relevant decisions of the ICGLR Summits, there has been no progress in this process due to lack of even focus in the implementation of the Nairobi Declarations” (UN, 2015).

Afterthought:

As we can see there is a connection and the deflection from Government of Uganda (GoU) is expected, but if I had showed the riches gained by the imported gold from the areas that M23 took, would have showed the value for supporting the army as the common sense for the cooperation and support directly from the GoU.

He might have called President Kabila and told he would work on the matter and have the discussions in Kampala as a way of swaying away from the fact that they are behind and servicing the M23. We can see that and knowing that they gave arms, training, army men from the UPDF and even technical training. The pictures of the arms with Ugandan origin after the retreat and stop of violence from M23 should be proof enough of their involvement into the matter, what is worse is the witnesses claiming that certain big men in the government has supported and set things in order to fix the problems that M23 had at one point. That is something that we all should consider, as Salim Selah has been involved in a lot of shady arrangement in DRC before and has only backed away from the “Wonga Coup” to deliver arms to Thatcher’s son. Rest of the time he has done transport arrangements and fixing the army to keep Uganda in parts of DRC when needed. So the stories of him being involved would not be a shock in any way.

The suspect issue is how easy they could stay in Uganda, cross the borders and even get personnel and recruit in border areas. As this suspect connection together with the history of using military force from Uganda to get wealth out of the DRC. As they did in the late 1990s and in the beginning of 2000s; they haven’t just cooperated with the world to fight together will alliances to force away LRA and ADF-NALU. That is not the whole story, though the Government of Uganda won’t it to seem that way, as a way to clean their hands from the mud they have been swimming in. Takes a lot more than a shower to get the dirt off, you smell me?

Peace.

Reference:
Conflict Prevention and Peace Forum – ‘Consolidating the Peace: Closing the M23 Chapter – Prepared on behalf of the DRC Affinity Group December 2014’

Jackson, Henry M. – ‘DEFENSE, DIPLOMACY AND DEVELOPMENT: MAKING A 3D STRATEGY WORK IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION OF AFRICA’ (Winter 2013)

Gil, Manuel Manrique – ‘The M23 and eastern D.R. Congo: An intractable problem or an opportunity to engage?’ (12.11.2012) – ‘European Parliament: Directorate-Generale for External Affairs: Policy Department’

International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) – ‘DECLARATION OF THE HEADS OF STATE AND GOVERNMENT OF THE MEMBER STATES OF THE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE GREAT LAKES REGION (ICGLR) ON THE SECURITY SITUATION IN EASTERN DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO (DRC) 5th EXTRAORDINARY SUMMIT OF THE HEADS OF STATE AND GOVERNMENT’ (24.11.2012).

M23 – ‘Declaration of Commitments by the Movement of March 23 at the Conclusion of the Kampala Dialogue’ (12.12.2013) – Nairobi, Kenya.

Mbabazi, Amama – ‘Uganda’s Stand and Response on the allegations made by the UN Group of Experts and the subsequent endorsement of the allegations by the UN Security Council about Uganda’s purported support of M23 rebels’ (01.11.2012) – Statement in Parliament of Uganda

Shepard, Ben – ‘Beyond Crisis in the DRC The Dilemmas of International Engagement and Sustainable Change’ (December 2014) – Chatham House, The Royal Institute of International Affairs,

United Nation – Letter dated 12 October 2012 from the Group Experts on the Democratic Republic of Congo addressed to the Chairman of the Security Council Committee established pursuant to resolution 1533 (2004) concerning the Democratic Republic of Congo

United Nation – ‘Letter dated 12 December 2013 from the Group of Experts on the Democratic Republic of the Congo addressed to the Chair of the Security Council Committee established pursuant to resolution 1533 (2004) concerning the Democratic Republic of the Congo The members of the Group of Experts on the Democratic Republic of the Congo have the honour to transmit the final report of the Group, prepared in pursuance of paragraph 5 of Security Council resolution 2078 (2012)’

United Nations – ‘OFFICE OF THE SPECIAL ENVOY OF THE SECRETARY-GENERAL
FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION -Neutralization of Armed Groups’ (26.08.2015)

ADF-NALU attacks a village outside Beni, North-Kivu in the DRC.

ADF is making the news again. Last time I reported on them, they we’re accused for the skirmishes in Kasese and Bundibugyo, Uganda. This time around in Beni in the DRC we can most definitely say they are the ones who done the crime.

To the news that has come on the horizon is from the MONUSCO: “decisive joint military actions of FARDC [Congolese army] and MONUSCO to start as soon as possible in order to relieve the population from the terror imposed by the ADF [Allied Democratic Forces], once and for all” (UN.org, 2014). Martin Kobler the head of MONUSCO says: “I call for decisive joint military actions of FARDC (Congolese army) and MONUSCO (U.N. peacekeeping mission) in order to relieve the population from the terror imposed by the ADF “(Ross, 2014)

A high diplomatic Source told the journalist Caroline Hellyer: “you take the FDLR we’ll take the ADF” (2014, Africa-news.info). She even reported something that big news corporation isn’t caring about is that 30 people with alleged ties to ADF and keeping weapons, bombs and such for them. They the defendants and weapons were all over town and on public view or should I say display (Africa-news.info, 2014).

Mayor of Beni,  Nyonyi Bwana Kawa commented: “members of the Allied Democratic Forces and the National Army for the Liberation of Uganda crept into homes and killed at least 26 people”. DRC Army Lieutenant Colonel Oliver Hamuli also commented on the matter: “people were killed with knives and machetes” and confirmed that the attackers we’re from the ADF-NALU (SierraLeone, 2014).

Governor of North Kivu Province Julien Paluku comments on the matter: “the attack occurred in Erengeti, near the town of Beni, and those killed include a Congolese soldier, 3 civilian men, 10 women and several children” (…)”the third attack blamed on the ADF rebels since the beginning of this month, despite the presence of U.N. peacekeepers in eastern Congo” (AP, 2014).

That this doesn’t make news real press in the west or make anybody shook their heads in agony is sad. Though at this Ebola times if a European person with a valued passport get caught with Ebola its front page, but over 20 persons in a violent attack from ADF-NALU doesn’t even break a sweat from anybody who uses the ink or laptops in serious media.

I am saddened by this tragedy not only that MONUSCO and FARDC can’t control this militia. Even with the fierce power they have an obligation from the government and international NGO of United Nation which has more power and shooting power than its predecessor MONUC. FARDC is expected to weak and not strong enough. Therefore the UPDF has been in now and then hunting for the LRA: Who now has been hidden in the CAR for a while. But I am not writing for that today. I am for the sadness and sorrow of Beni, DRC. Peace.

Links:

AP: “22 killed by rebels in eastern Congo” (18.10.2014) Link: http://kdhnews.com/news/world/killed-by-rebels-in-eastern-congo/article_243df3fd-ae25-51f2-8ae9-6ad61b09ed16.html

Hellyer, Caroline: “Congo/Uganda: high profile military operations against ADF will not rebuild local stability” (18.10.2014) Link: http://www.africa-news.info/politics/2014/10/congouganda-high-profile-military-operations-against-adf-will-not-rebuild-local-stability-by-caroline-hellyer/

Ross, Aaron: “Rebels kill 23 people in east Congo village” (18.10.2014) Link: http://www.trust.org/item/20141018125443-xi934

VOA-SierraLeone Times: “Dozen killed in DRC Massacre” (17.10.2014) Link: http://www.sierraleonetimes.com/index.php/sid/226740149

United Nation: “DR Congo: UN envoy calls for decisive joint military action to neutralize rebels” (18.10.2014) Link: http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=49113#.VEK_Uvl_uSo

UN Security Council 7235th meeting AM on South Sudan

WARRING PARTIES IN SOUTH SUDAN MUST EMBARK ON PATH OF RECONCILIATION OR RISK

HUMANITARIAN CATASTROPHE, SENIOR OFFICIAL WARNS SECURITY COUNCIL:

Reiterating Government’s Commitment to Peace Process,

Permanent Representative Urges Armed Groups to Show ‘Seriousness and Faithfulness’

After three years of independence, South Sudan was on the “brink of a humanitarian catastrophe and a protracted internal conflict”, a senior United Nations peacekeeping official warned the Security Council this morning.

“This is a man-made crisis, and those responsible for it have been slow in resolving it,” said Edmond Mulet, Assistant Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations, as he briefed the 15-member body on the Secretary-General’s 25 July report on South Sudan (document S/2014/537) and recent developments in the strife-torn African country following the report’s publication.

With both sides — the South Sudanese Government and the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A) in Opposition — believing they could achieve their aims through military means, the situation on the ground remained precarious, and the conflict risked spreading to other parts of the country, he stressed.  The Security Council’s visit next week to South Sudan was particularly timely, and should serve to caution both sides about the negative consequences of impeding the peace process.

“The parties must reach an agreement, without a further delay, on how to end the conflict and embark on the path of reconciliation,” he emphasized.  Those responsible for serious human rights violations must be held accountable and both sides must ensure unhindered, safe access by road, air and river for United Nations and humanitarian personnel.

He noted that talks had just resumed on 4 August between the South Sudanese Government and the SPLM/A in Opposition, and were being mediated by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) in an effort to sort out issues of security and humanitarian access; political transition and the creation of a Government of National Unity; justice, reconciliation and healing; and the parameters of a new Constitution, he said.  IGAD member States would also need to decide on the terms of applying sanctions against those who undermined the peace process, should the need arise.

Giving an overview of recent developments, he said that the ceasefire agreements, signed by the parties on 23 January, 9 May and 10 June, had been violated.  The first major incident occurred on 20 July when SPLM/A in Opposition forces attacked Government positions in Nassir, Upper Nile State.  Fighting for Nassir ensued until 26 July, when the SPLM/A in Opposition retreated.

Skirmishes had also occurred in Rensk, also in Upper Nile State, and in Ayod, Jonglei State, he said.  On 16 July, in Aweil, Northern Bahr El Ghazal State, the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) received reports of clashes between Government security positions and approximately 200 Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) deserters that had abandoned their posts over lack of salary payments.  On 2 August, clashes erupted between the Maban Defence Force, a local militia, and some 20 SPLA deserters of Nuer ethnicity.

Since the fighting began, United Nations personnel and aid workers had moved to the compounds of United Nations agencies and intergovernmental organizations for protection, and non-essential staff were been airlifted out, he said.  Thousands of civilians had sought refuge in a refugee camp near the airstrip.  A Quick Reaction Force with four armoured personnel carriers was en route to the area and another platoon size force was being deployed by air.

In addition, the deployment of more troops authorized under resolution 2155 (2014) was well under way, he said.  As of 4 August, fully 3,525 of the 5,500 surge troops had been deployed.  The remaining contingents — an infantry battalion, three military utility helicopters, three additional aircraft and a tactical helicopter unit — were expected to be sent by October.  The United Nations had also identified police-contributing countries for the deployment of four Formed Police Units comprising of 660 personnel.

The humanitarian operation in South Sudan was the largest within a single country, he said, with the Mission hosting more than 95,000 internally displaced persons at its site, far more than its intended capacity.  Heavy rains had severely flooded large areas of the UNMISS sites in Bentiu and Malakal, exacerbating already challenging health and sanitation conditions.  With the slow pace of the peace process, displacement was likely to continue.

“The status quo, therefore, is not sustainable and alternative options must be explored,” he said, stressing that UNMISS’ capacity and funding fell far short of overwhelming needs.  Aid had reached some 2.4 million people, but efforts had been hampered by insecurity, obstructed access, insufficient and delayed funding, and delayed logistic, human resources and political constraints.

The Mission had begun discussions with United Nations agencies and humanitarian partners to better delineate roles and responsibilities so that it could focus on its core mandate set forth in resolution 2155 (2014), he said.  Meantime, UNMISS continued to encourage internally displaced persons to relocate to newly constructed sites in order to alleviate overcrowding at the existing ones.

Joseph Moum Malok ( South Sudan) reiterated his Government’s commitment to the peace process and its determination to reach a final settlement through negotiations.  President Salva Kiir Mayardit had expressed willingness to form an interim or transitional Government in order to promote constitutional reform, national peace, and reconciliation and accountability mechanisms.

“We can’t afford to prolong the current situation,” he said, calling on the rebel groups to show “seriousness and faithfulness” in the negotiations and on the international community to remind them of the importance of adhering to the previous ceasefire agreements, which the rebels had violated repeatedly.

Furthermore, the international community must be mindful of the Government’s lack of technical capability needed to swiftly undertake forensic and legal proceedings, he said, expressing regret over UNMISS’ stalled efforts to build capacity of the organized forces and other rule of law institutions.

The meeting began at 10 a.m. and ended at 10:20 a.m.

Link:

http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs//2014/sc11510.doc.htm

Quick thought: 

We can all just see that the UN Security Council used ten minutes on a matter which themselves describes as a possible humanitarian catastrophe. Is that all the lives is worth for the UN? They fear that SPLM going back to the former days of SPLA. An they say the action comes from the opposition. The matter is how to solve the crisis and the effect of it. Endgame should matter, and isn’t that the mandate and honor of UNAMISS. They are supposed to have 5,500 surge troops, by 4. July, but they had gotten 3,525. So we can wonder if they will get the funding for the UNAMISS, when their missing nearly 2000 surge troops to their operation. If this isn’t sad piece of history, I don’t know history. Especially when it’s  already filled with the sadness of the MONUC (2000-2010 in DRC) and UNAMIR (1993-1996). If you wonder why I add those into play? Well, then you should read some on them and see what I am saying without saying it. Hope that UNAMISS will have another fate then UNAMIR and MONUC.

ADF or Obusinga bwa Rwenzururu? – Museveni struggle with counterrevolutionary insurgency

In 1990 Yoweri Museveni gave the Millitary Academy in Bombo a document explaining how to fight counterrevolutionary insurgency (Museveni 2000, S: 132). Why I am pointing this out today. It’s because of the tragic events in Kasese and Bundibugyo(Bagala, 2014) where its reported now 90 dead. The document was in a book published in 2000 called ‘What’s Is Africa’s Problem?’ Then I will address this document and this with the state it is in today. With doing so, I will there after discuss short history of ADF, LRA, ADM and UMLA whom all interconnected. After that show how the ADF has reacted to recent events and how we come to the news of recent of the tragic deaths in Kasese and Bundibugyo. This will be long post, but hopefully this will give you some new knowledge on the matter.

Museveni had four points to fight counterrevolutionary insurgency:

  1. Fight for the right cause
  2. The cause of the government must be for a just one.
  3. Politicizing the population
  4. Diplomatic weapons

(Museveni, 2000)

First Point: Fight illiteracy and make government policy on land for the population (Museveni, 2000, S: 132). In 2014 there new reports of bad schools and its sorry state, Margret Nakitto the Mukono Muncipal Education officer explains to Red Pepper: “We as a municipal, we always carry out village meetings with communities where the locals identify their basic necessities then we handle them over to the district that in most cases has positively responded to our requests”, she continues:”  Active learning is in government schools unlike private schools that hire mercenary who force pupils to cram what they do not understand”(Red Pepper, 2014). Second part of first point is to rebuild infrastructure (Museveni. 2000, S: 133). Museveni himself said for the budget in 2014/2015: “Uganda is now connected from corner to corner. You can now drive on tarmac road to all corners of Uganda. As a result of this shift in resources, Uganda has achieved connectivity across the country” (State House, 2014). So we have to see if that is true. The weakness of the national economy can lead to counterrevolutionary insurgency (Museveni 2000, S: 133). World Bank reports that since 1986 to 2014 the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has gone from around 4.80 Billion USD to 21.48 billion USD (World Bank, 2014). There would be issues with ideology, political and general conceptual underdevelopment (Museveni, 2000, S: 133). Reasons for underdevelopment in Uganda stemmed from the colonial administration into the new independence policies of manufacturing. The government continued with the new policies of to the agricultural sector. In agricultural sector has the focus is on the traditional foods and also the non-traditional for export like coffee. Structural Adjustment Program (SAP) has liberated the economy and also opened for more unemployment. SAP was abounded in 2009 where the focus turned into a principal marcoeconomics element such as economic growth to trickledown economy, inflation control, and export of raw materials, and also to focus on the Millennium Development Goals (MDG). Kashumbashi writes: “Uganda is now defined as a failed state vulnerable to domestic and external shocks including inability and /or unwillingness to control borders against the influx of illegal immigrants that have heightened political tensions as competition for services and resources particularly land ownership intensifies. Thus, notwithstanding its huge resource endowment and strategic location, Uganda remains mired in under-development and extreme poverty because of unfavourable economic policies and political instability, civil wars and violation of human rights and fundamental freedoms”(Kashumbashi, 2014).

Second Point: The cause of the government must be for a just one (Museveni, 2000, S: 134). Where the focus was on correct building of the army and graduation of the military (Museveni, 2000, S: 134). Museveni says: “Military training is not easy. It is tough but builds your stamina, body and character”(…)”This emphasis you have done, of political education and discipline is very welcome and I want to thank you very much for that”(UGO.co.ug, 2014).

Third Point: Politicizing a Confused Population (Museveni, 2000, S: 136). That the manipulation of the population and peasantry ignorance and bandits taking advantages previous political mobilization. There could also be tribal intoxicants with the issues between the “south” and the “north” (Museveni, 2000, S: 137). With the basis of the discipline of the army would give security to the population. Good prompt management and utilization of intelligence information for the government (Museveni, 2000, S: 137-138). Col Felix Kulayigye said “the truth telling process could turn chaotic since most of the conflicts in the country were tribal” (…) ”while many people keep accusing government of wrong doing yet there are many civilians and religious leaders who protected insurgents especially during the Lord’s Resistance Army rebel conflict” (Red Pepper (2), 2014). So there must be done something wrong by the government and the plans that Museveni had in the 1990 unto 2014.

Fourth Point: Diplomatic Weapons (Museveni, 2000, S: 139).

If you handle diplomacy in the right way and manner then will you get the weapons you need, and when you need them. So that continuance of weapons needed to combat counterrevolutionary insurgency (Museveni, 2000, S: 139-140). If the numbers from NationMaster can be used as a guideline, approximant number of UPDF forces (exact number of forces in 2000) it was 50.000 Armed Combat Forces. Battle-related deaths were in 2007 up to 91. The price of the army per capita was 6, 13 USD. Use of GDP was 2, 9% was in 2006, in 2013 down to 1, 8 % of GDP. Personnel for the army were up 47.000 in 2005. The amount of Weapons Holdings the UPDF had in 2001 was 286.000 (NationMaster, 2014). So if this numbers are somewhere near the truth of today’s picture, Museveni sure has made a well spent with Diplomatic Weapons.

Short LRA:

This was how Museveni himself in 1990 commented on how the Ugandan government should succeed in beating the issue of counterrevolutionary insurgency. This week we saw the second guerilla group in 20 years attacking northern parts of Uganda. The most famous one is LRA (Lord Resistance Army). LRA now is on the run between Central African Republic (C.A.R), Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Sudan; they are on the run from UPDF who is going after them there. This has led to clashes with ‘Seleka’ in C.A.R which wasn’t intended in general, but rumors are out that ‘Seleka’ is supporting LRA (Ronan, 2014).

Short history of ADF:

It started first of in Uganda as Ugandan Muslim Liberation Army (UMLA) this after they accused NRA (NRM) killing Muslims in 1979 at Nyamitaga in Mbabara and also the killings of Muslims at Butambala near Mpigi (Prunier, 2009, S: 84). UMLA was founded in January in 1995 (Prunier, 2009, S: 84). Monarchist of the Baganda Kingdom of Uganda wasn’t happy with the restoration of the Kabaka Mutesa II that happened in 1993 and became only a cultural institution with no power. Allied Democratic Movement (ADM) was founded in London later in January 1995 (Prunier, 2009, S: 85). The UMLA had it firsts attacks were in February at Buseruka, near Lake Albert in Bunyoro. This was on 20-28 February 1995 and went bad for the UMLA. So they fled the area and settled down in Bunia in DRC. Through the met of Tabliq a Khartoum supported group who worked together with Sudanese Army Security Service who controlled at the time Bunia Airbase and Khartoum was hostile to Uganda and NRM (Prunier, 2009, S: 86). This sponsored relationship from Khartoum led to the alliance of the ADM and the UMLA, whom became in the DRC the ADF (Prunier, 2009, S: 87).

ADF made a mark 13. November 1996. Museveni called Mobutu and told he would enter DRC to attack the ADF guerillas at their bases in Kasindi, DRC and Mobutu was surprised. Then leader of ADF Ssentamatu Kayiira said “to reintroduce multi party politics in Uganda, stop Museveni’s nepotism giving all the juicy jobs to Westerns (meaning people from Ankoli and Kigenzi) and re-establish cordial relations with Uganda’s neighbor” (Prunier, 2009, S: 120.121). This made Museveni enters the conflict at the time in DRC and fight ADF in Bunia and Kasindi (Prunier, 2009, S: 121). By mid-October in 1998 Museveni went into Sudan to fight to both strike back at LRA and also ADF since they got air support from Juba, the numbers was up to 50.000 IDPs in January 1998 and by July 70.000. Amama Mbabazi was commenting on this at the time: “Khartoum’s plan is to destabilize the region to prepare the ground for the spread of Islamic fundamentalism and Arabism”(Prunier, 2009, S: 196).

MONUC (UN Peacekeeping Force in DRC) hunted down with FARDC the ADF in late December 2005 where they ended up killing 86 ADF combatants (Prunier, 2009, S: 208).

Later the ADF still exists, but not only as guerrilla force on the footholds of Ruwenzori to a rogue mining company. They are not seeing in Kampala as a threat anymore, but something of the past (Prunier, 2009, S: 321,322).

ADF Now:

Recently suggest that ADF-NALU has 800 to 1.400 combatants in the DRC-Uganda. The funding of the organization is off Illegal logging and gold-mining, this money is being handled with a network of cars and motorcycles, this then being transferred to and from London, Kenya and Uganda. There has been attempts crush the guerrilla army in 2005 and 2010 (IRIN, 2014).

Lt. Col Paddy Ankunda of the UPDF and he comments: “The threat is real. ADF is recruiting, training and opening new camps in eastern DRC. We are alert and very prepared to deal with any attack on our side of the border” (…)”We are sharing intelligence information with the DRC government [and] FARDC [DRC’s national army] about their activities. We hope FARDC will be able to deal with the group” (…)”There is no doubt; ADF has a linkage with Al-Shabab. They collaborate. They have trained ADF on the use of improvised explosive devices” (…)”What is worrying us is that the ADF has been carrying out a series of abductions, recruitment and attacks in DRC without much resistance from FARDC”(IRIN 2, 2013). This is after what he said in 2013 and still nothing said about in international press or any action from them.

Stephen Oola commented also: “The allegations that ADF is regrouping are not new and should not come as a surprise. What should worry us as a country is the apparent collective amnesia of treating our own exported armed insurgencies as other people’s problems” (…)”The LRA [Lord’s Resistance Army] and ADF are Uganda’s problems and will remain so, no matter where they are located at a particular time, until we seek a comprehensive solution to conflicts in this country”(IRIN 2, 2013).

Museveni commented himself to African Report this in August 2013: “I have told President Kabila and the UN that they should deal with these killers” (…)”We can’t have neighbours who are murderers. ADF killers are in Congo, if they dare to if they dare to attack Uganda they will suffer the consequences” (…)”I urge Ugandans to look after our people fleeing the conflict in Congo. These are our people, the boundaries are foreign” (…)”Slowly by slowly we shall bring Africa back together. An elephant always carries the weight of its tasks however heavy” (Olukya, 2013).

Museveni congratulates Kabila on 2. December 2013 said “The DRC army operations overrun the headquarters of the ADF in the Eastern Region. I want to thank President Kabila and congratulate him upon this successful operation of flashing out the ADF” (NewVision.co.ug, 2014).

What Museveni failed with his counterrevolutionary insurgency plans from 1990?

My suggestion would be that he didn’t follow the four points of the 1990 military document given to Bombo Military Academy in Uganda. Museveni and UPDF can’t fight the right wars since they can’t have done that, then this kind of armies wouldn’t exist still after 20 years and making havoc in Kasese and Bundibugyo. The cause for safety of their own citizens should be JUST one, but does this matter at this point for the UPDF? They are used in Somalia, South Sudan, DRC and C.A.R, are there still forces to use in the country? If they are, where are they stationed at and how hungry are they? Since you can’t let the ADF just walk into your territory and start shooting without any warning, then killing both army personnel and also civilians.Politicizing the population is captured in the second point, how can a government and police let a guerrilla just walk over the borders and make hazardous event and tragic outcome. That UPDF isn’t stronger in the area must be a wake-up call for the brigadiers and generals of the Ugandan Army. This must be an answer to the ADF battles in 2013 and now their revenging the UPDF and DRC army. Fourth point is Diplomatic Weapons, I am sure that Museveni and UPDF getting the weapons he need. He has recently been in Russia and become more connected to them, also his ties to USA in the fight against LRA and the Al.Shabab in Somalia. UPDF is sure getting the modern weapons of this time from them and sure it’s part of the aid.

The sad new reports from several sources:

Paddy Akunda: “There was an attack by tribal gunmen on our barracks in Bundibugyo [Western Uganda] and we repulsed them, killing so far 41 of the attackers. The operation is ongoing”(AllAfrica.com, 2014). Ms Namaye says: “he attackers were coordinated by local leader and politicians, who are yet to be interrogated” (…)”Investigations are pointing to area politicians and a witch doctor who hails from Democratic Republic of Congo who helped them attack out stations” (Bagala, 2014). Lt. Ninsiima Rwemijuma has commented: “More than 80 suspected militants are now in custody”. The military is saying ‘it’s not a full blown insurgency’. They suspects it to be: Obusinga bwa Rwenzururu. Who is a part of the Bakonzo tribe and have a long tense relationship with neighboring tribe Bamba. Rwemijuma continues: “It is hard to confirm that this is a rebel group or not” (…)”This is a subject matter that needs investigation” (Muhumuza, 2014).

More interesting reports are armed men went into the barracks of Kasese and took ammunition from the place. Also fears of civil war sparking off in Kampala. Even UPDF Officer has reported that tanks has vanished and soldiers. Muzhoozi is reported also to hold a dozen meetings over the political unrest (Welinformers.com, 2014).

I mean it today:

Peace!

Links:

AllAfrica.com: ‘Uganda: Dozens Killed in Clash With Ugandan Police’ (06.07.2014), Links:http://allafrica.com/stories/201407070244.html?aa_source=mf-hdlns

Bagala, Andrew (Monitor.co.ug), – Death toll in Kasese, Bundibugyo attacks rises to 90, (Updated: 07.07.2014). Links:http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/Death-toll-in-Kasese–Bundibugyo-attacks–rises-to-90/-/688334/2374884/-/cewe5b/-/index.html

IRIN – ReliefWeb: ‘Briefing: ADF-NALU militia in DRC’ (27.01.2014), Links:http://reliefweb.int/report/democratic-republic-congo/briefing-adf-nalu-militia-drc

IRIN 2 – ‘DRC-based Ugandan rebel group “recruiting, training”’ (11.07.2013), Links:http://www.irinnews.org/report/98400/drc-based-ugandan-rebel-group-recruiting-training

Kashambuzi, Eric (the London Evening Post) – Why Uganda has failed to develop and eradicate poverty (Updated: 05.07.2014), Links: http://www.thelondoneveningpost.com/features/why-uganda-has-failed-to-develop-and-eradicate-poverty/2/

Muhumuza, Rodney (AP) – ‘Fears of rebellion as Uganda’s army battles gunmen’, Stripes.com, (07.07.2014), Links: http://www.stripes.com/news/africa/fears-of-rebellion-as-uganda-s-army-battles-gunmen-1.292272

Museveni, Yoweri K. – What Is Africa’s Problem? (2000), University Of Minnesota Press, USA.

NewVision Reporter – ‘Museveni hails Kabila for flashing out ADF rebels’, (10.02.2014), Links:http://www.newvision.co.ug/news/652370-museveni-hails-kabila-for-flashing-out-adf-rebels.html

NationMaster.com: Uganda Military Stats (Read 07.07.2014), NationMaster (Updated I don’t know), Links:http://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/profiles/Uganda/Military

Olukya, Godfrey – ‘Uganda: Museveni warns DRC rebels’, African Report, (06.08.2013), Links: http://www.theafricareport.com/East-Horn-Africa/uganda-museveni-warns-drc-rebels.html

Red Pepper: ‘State Of The Gov’t Schools In Uganda’ (Updated: 02.07.2014), Links: http://www.redpepper.co.ug/state-of-the-govt-schools-in-uganda/

Red Pepper (2): ‘Kulayigye: Uganda Not Ready for Truth Telling’ (29.05.2014), Links:http://www.redpepper.co.ug/kulaigye-uganda-not-ready-for-truth-telling/

Ronan, Paul: Behind the headlines: ‘UPDF clashes with Seleka in eastern CAR’ (02.07.2014), Links: http://www.theresolve.org/2014/07/behind-the-headlines-updf-clashes-with-seleka-in-the-car/

Prunier, Gerard: Africa’s World War (2009), Oxford University Press. UK

The State House of Uganda: 2014/2015 budget poised to boost infrastructure sector (02.06.2014) Links: http://www.statehouse.go.ug/media/news/2014/06/12/20142015-budget-poised-boost-infrastructure-sector

UGO.Co.Ug: UPDF Officers Demonstrate Skills Acquired In Intense Training (02.07.2014), Links: http://news.ugo.co.ug/updf-officers-demonstrate-skills-acquired-intense-training/

WelInformers.com: ‘Senior UPDF officers vanish with military hardware, Museveni, Muhoozi hold meetings’ (07.07.2014, Links:http://www.weinformers.net/2014/07/07/senior-updf-officers-vanish-with-military-hardware-museveni-muhoozi-hold-meetings/

World Bank: Uganda GDP – (Updated 2014), Links: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/uganda/gdp

Crime in the Crimean

Everybody who hasn’t lived under stone since 2013 has gotten with the news of demonstrations going on in Kiev in Ukraine. Ukraine who been split by two parts, the one who want a close connection to Russia and the one who want to get closer to EU. So there we have it! Viktor Yanukovich who has been ousted before is now in the wind in Russia. Last time was the Orange revolution in 2004. So ten years later it happened again!

This time Vladimir Putin the president Russia who was using the bargain chip of the vast issues of economic downturn in Ukraine. So there is an issue where Ukraine has a downturn and is borrowing in an up scaling rate. Russia would offer this money if they passed on the deal for a step towards getting a EU membership. That wasn’t acceptable for Putin or Russia. This is in the close hinterland of Moscow. Where famous battles of ancient Russia have fought and had made history there.

Ukraine has a sovereign right to the area. The only issue that Russia has rights there is that they have had agreement with the Ukraine government to have a navy-base fleet in the Black sea. This is the best place considering most other harbors in Russia would be frozen for a long time of the year.

We can all learn by history of action rash. The way of the future madness it can lead into. The way military units move into the region. The Ukraine is unstable because of fresh leadership and ousted of the government of Yanukovich. Putin is fairing the safety of the navy-base and warships.

That USA is calling this 18th century ways of acting. It’s kind of unreasonable of the country that has attacked countries without caring about the UN resolutions or the safety council accommodation. John Kerry attacking Russia is a bit of throwing a stone in glasshouse. USA went into Iraq, Afghanistan or Libya. Only a few times US has been right in aggressive military action is as recent “white” war of Balkans during the 90s. Now were in present time after a period of Bush wars and giving other countries the clean-up missions that they couldn’t do: in the likes of AMISOM mission in Somalia and the MONUC mission in Democratic Republic of Congo.

So here we have it! Putin who has been just finished a polished and beautiful Olympics in Sochi. Then he tried to make a positive impression on the world. Now, we are here where Russia is going into the Ukraine with a force to just secure … the navy-base in Crimea for its warship fleet and also excusing itself for the Russian inhabitants. We have heard sorry excuse before by other power in the 20th century it’s was a certain Nazi Germany who attacked parts of Poland and Czechoslovakia for its German citizens there and the League of Nations had no power to stop it or Neville Chamberlain.

It has some similarities we all now, but doesn’t have the same ending or the same pretext. We’re just in a situation where Putin has to save face and Ukraine has to do the same. Where USA and western hemisphere isn’t happy for the actions of Russia, at some point this will give other issues as well. Canada has already called back its ambassador from Moscow. The United Kingdom has already pulled itself out of the G8 meeting which was supposed to be in Sochi, Russia.

You can wash your hands clean and then call yourself guilty… Still your actions tell more than the lies you told yesterday. The same must Vladimir Putin feel today or yesterday since he order troops into the Crimean-peninsula. Mother Russia doesn’t have the rights to this. US is correct though they isn’t the right actor to talk. They have broken the same rules whenever it have pleased themselves in recent years. So if Canada or UK is attacking Russia for their actions they have more credibility then USA for the moment. Barrack Obama can talk peace, but he should instead spend time selling government cheese inside his own border then resume and judge Vladimir Putin. The French who has jumped to the Francafrique – the French Africa in this instances we talk about Cote d’Ivoire and Central African Republic. Cleaning out their own “commonwealth” or should I say: “Francafrique”.

So here we are in position where mighty people play with high stakes. So high haven’t we been in ages. The outcome can be either little or big. We can know for the moment. The people of the Crimean-peninsula are the pawns in this and it’s sad. So as outsiders we can only act with condemnation and pray for the right way out of this. This is still a crime and is a foul. If it had been a football match they would have given Russia as a player least a yellow card and maybe even warning that next action could lead to a red card! Peace.

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