WikiLeaks – The reports from 2007-2009 about the Presidental aspiration of both Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga
Well, today is this blog in the name of WikiLeaks. For the simple reason the documents I found was to interesting to not be addressed and take the quotes which give an impact on how the Americans address the pre-election Kenya. This is the Election which Uhuru Kenyatta the chairman of the Kenya African National Union (KANU) and William Ruto the leader of the United Republican Party (URP) their Jubilee Coalition won over Rail Odinga and his Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). But here are the quotes and transcripts that were interesting in hindsight of history and also seeing the view of the US into the matter.
Odinga’s Presidental Plans and how sees the opportunity to win the election:
“The Ambassador told Odinga the United States remains optimistic that there will be a credible, positive electoral process, and urged Odinga to continue speaking out against violence and exploitation of tribal politics. The Ambassador commended Odinga for having delayed a huge rally planned for Nairobi because it conflicted with a planned pro-Kibaki rally, rather than risk confrontation. (The rally was held in Nairobi,s Uhuru park October 6, with an estimated turnout of over 500,000.) The Ambassador emphasized the U.S. interest in moving quickly to coordinate post-election priorities should Odinga be elected” (…)”Odinga, who just days before the lunch suddenly emerged in polls as the front-runner, said he is anything butoverconfident. He commented that polls are not always accurate, and he said he recognizes the formidable governmental machine and the money behind Kibaki,s campaign. However, Odinga said that his Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party is better-positioned overall to win than is Kibaki,s newly created coalition Party of National Unity (PNU)” (…)”Odinga said that ODM is doing its own weekly polling both on issues and specific races. The ODM polls track closely with the national polls showing him significantly ahead of Kibaki. Odinga,s comments reflected something we have heard from numerous other sources: that the ODM,s &war room8 and strategy are at this point far better organized than Kibaki,s effort, which is rent by internal divisions. Odinga described these divisions in some detail, noting that there are at least three competing groups seeking to dominate the campaign: the technocrats, the so-called Kikuyu elders, and several key financial backers. As a result, the Kibaki campaign has been disjointed and without a coherent message, Odinga said”(WikiLeaks, 09.10.2007).
”Odinga is working to achieve victory on the first ballot, but is simultaneously working on a strategy to deprive Kibaki of 25 percent of the vote in at least four provinces, which would force a run-off (…)”Odinga is working to achieve victory on the first ballot, but is simultaneously working on a strategy to deprive Kibaki of 25 percent of the vote in at least four provinces, which would force a run-off. (Note: The President must be elected by a plurality of total votes cast and by receiving at least 25 percent of the vote in five of the country,s eight provinces.) Odinga believes the ODM may be able to deny Kibaki 25 percent in Coast, Northeast, Western, and Nyanza provinces. Odinga believes that he will receive a plurality of all votes cast and at least 25 percent in Coast, Western, Nyanza, Rift Valley, Nairobi, and Northeast provinces. Odinga noted that his and Kibaki,s base votes are about 30 percent each, emanating from their respective tribal groups, the Luo in Nyanza province and Kikuyu in Central province” (09.10.2007).
Odinga feels (in an opinion that is widely shared) that former President Moi,s support for Kibaki in Rift Valley may prove counter-productive with Moi,s Kalenjin tribal group there, and Odinga claimed he will get 80 percent of that vote” (…)”dinga cited the danger of misuse of government resources and said local chiefs have been told by Minister of Security Michuki that they will lose their jobs and have to be elected (they are appointed now) if Odinga wins. Kibaki and his team are also warning that Odinga,s support for &majimboism8 (strong local autonomy) will create chaos and reinforce tribalism. (Note: “Majimboism” was first promoted, unsuccessfully, immediately after independence by those who wanted to deny land ownership and other rights to Kenyans deemed not indigenous to a region” (WikiLeaks, 09.10.2007).
“Odinga is part of the same traditional political class as Kibaki. His hands are not clean, though perhaps relatively cleaner than some. While he says he understands the need to reassure groups which feel threatened by his possible election, an Odinga victory would constitute a sea-change for Kenyan politics in several respects. It would be the first time a sitting President lost an election and handed over power to the opposition. It would represent a seismic shift in Kenyan tribal politics. Paradoxically, his election would in one sense be the result of the worst kind of tribal politics (playing up anti-Kikuyu resentments), but in another sense it might actually represent progress through Kenyans demonstrating their willingness to &try another tribe,8 a comment widely heard in different parts of the country. The responsibility would then be heavily on Odinga to prove his commitment to improve the welfare of all the people of Kenya. We should also reflect on our own rhetoric regarding the maturing of Kenyan democracy and our faith in the ability of the relatively well-educated Kenyan electorate to set the nation,s agenda for the next five years” (WikiLeaks, 09.10.2007).
“Annan remains intensively engaged by phone with the two leaders, and I am coordinating closely with him. We are supporting various efforts underway to bring about another meeting between Kibaki and Odinga to iron out a cabinet deal” (…)”Kibaki and Odinga have agreed on a cabinet size of 40, with each side getting 20 positions. Odinga insists that for the sake of real power-sharing he must receive at least a few of the highest profile ministries. Kibaki has not offered any of these, and insists that what he put forward is fair”(WikiLeaks, 09.04.2008).
Cabinet Question Part II:
“Uhuru Kenyatta, who currently holds Local Government and is a presidential aspirant, does not want to give up this powerful ministry. Kenyatta is important to the cohesion of Kibaki’s Party of National Unity. Martha Karua, who is also a presidential aspirant and who was Kibaki’s lead negotiator in the Annan-led talks, holds Justice and Constitutional Affairs and does not want to relinquish it. Kibaki sees Foreign Affairs as his personal domain. Odinga is under enormous pressure from William Ruto, who is key to the crucial support Odinga has in Rift Valley. Ruto feels threatened by the government’s allegations that he was involved in organizing and supporting the Rift Valley violence which followed the election dispute” (…)”Kibaki repeatedly insisted that he has offered all that he can. He said the problem is that Odinga keeps changing his conditions and demands for an agreement (moving the goal posts, though he did not use that expression). Kibaki sounded patient and exasperated at the same time. “His behavior has put me in an impossible position,” Kibaki said. “I do not want to create another crisis by being the one who makes this deal not succeed.” Kibaki went on to say that “I’ve reached a point where I cannot change, because if I do I will look useless to my people. I will lose all my credibility” (…)”Kibaki did, however, leave the door open. “I want to move this country forward,” he said, “and I know that I cannot do that without a deal with Odinga. For the sake of finalizing an agreement, I might be willing to make additional concessions on ministries,” he continued, “but there is no guarantee that Odinga would not simply take that and then put on yet more conditions” (WikiLeaks, 09.04.2008).
Kibaki thanks USA for setting up the talks:
“Kibaki expressed great appreciation for all the efforts the U.S. has been making to help Kenyans, and asked me to talk to Odinga to get him to accept what is on offer” (…)”Kibaki said that I could also tell Odinga that he (Kibaki) is willing to make additional ministerial changes within 2 months following installation of the cabinet” (…)”Kibaki claimed that there will be more Kalenjins (people from Rift Valley) in the government once Odinga is prime minister than there has ever been before. This, Kibaki maintained, would benefit Odinga and strengthen his credibility by showing results” (WikiLeaks, 09.04.2008).
Odinga talked with Ambasador over lunch:
“Odinga agreed with this assessment saying that, in some respects, it mirrored his own situation” (…)”Odinga said he is reluctant to meet with Kibaki again unless there is a strong prospect of reaching agreement. He proposed having two people from each side meet to work out a final agreement” (…)”I talked at length with Odinga about the advantage he will have once he becomes Prime Minister, almost regardless of the specific nature of the cabinet appointments. He agreed with this, but said that accepting a deal without the 2-3 ministries he wants would risk splitting his party and thus weakening his leverage within the government and within Parliament” (WikiLeaks, 09.04.2008).
Annan following up the Cabinet deal:
“Annan urged Kibaki and Odinga to meet again, and he urged Kibaki to yield at least a couple of the high profile ministries. I have been in frequent touch with Annan, and we are closely coordinating efforts. The evening of April 8, Annan told me it may become necessary for him to come to Kenya at some point to press Kibaki and Odinga to finalize a cabinet deal. He had planned to come for the planned April 12 swearing-in of the new cabinet and Prime Minister. Annan expressed great appreciation for the Secretary’s continued engagement, saying it is essential to SIPDIS moving Kibaki and Odinga forward” (WikiLeaks, 09.04.2008)
“After the unsuccessful Kibaki-Odinga meeting on April 6, both sides went public. That evening, Kibaki and Odinga made positive statements emphasizing their commitment to reach a cabinet deal and urging the Kenyan people to remain calm” (…)”The impasse over the cabinet has heightened tensions, and sporadic violence flared in several places on April 8. This did not become generalized violence, and the country is currently calm. A very positive corollary to these rumblings of unrest, however, is the mounting chorus of voices from supporters of both sides, and indeed from Kenyans everywhere, echoing our pressure and demanding that their leaders resolve this impasse immediately” (WikiLeaks, 09.04.2008).
Leaders & Signals:
“Both President Kibaki and Raila Odinga are demonstrating a strong commitment to implement the political accord signed on February 28th” (…)”Kibaki and his team have been referring to Odinga as the “prime minister-designate,” even though the implementing legislation had not yet been passed by Parliament” (…)”Parliament on March 18th passed legislation amending the constitution to create the positions of prime minister and two deputy prime ministers (see ref B). President Kibaki and Odinga, both MPs, participated in the friendly and constructive debate on the bill, and set a very positive tone” (…)”Odinga will be sworn in as prime minister next week, and that the composition of the cabinet will be announced at that time” (…)”Formation of the coalition government is one among a number of steps needed to implement the accord. The other two main areas of implementation include formation of three commissions (on election irregularities; on election violence; and on truth, justice, and reconciliation), and moving ahead with the institutional reform agenda (constitutional, electoral, land, and related issues)” (WikiLeaks, 20.04.2008).
Annan and the Nigerian Foreign Minister:
“Former Nigerian Foreign Minister Oluyemi Adeniji, who Annan asked to work with the parties following his departure, has been ably chairing the continuing talks on the reform agenda. Annan is remaining in touch with Kibaki and Odinga, and has made clear that he has not abandoned the process. To continue this process, formation of a formal “Secretariat of Eminent Persons” with AU and UN personnel, as well as outside experts, will follow the implementation of the coalition accord. The U.S. and other donors are providing financial support for this mechanism” (WikiLeaks, 20.04.2009).
Odinga & Kibaki – Safricom and Aid:
“On March 14, Odinga dropped his earlier opposition and signaled his support for the March 28 launch of the Safaricom initial public offering, which will provide the GOK with $770 million in badly needed cash for the budget” (…)”Kibaki and Odinga jointly chaired a meeting with donors and international financial institutions on March 17. As reported septel, they appealed for approximately $480 million in support. At the meeting I circulated a paper laying out the humanitarian assistance that we are providing and making clear our commitment of $25 million in new assistance” (WikiLeaks, 20.04.2009).
U.S (are the same as we). more involvement:
“U.S. stock in Kenya has never been higher but, concomitantly, expectations for our continued engagement on recovery efforts are also high. Kenyans appreciate that the U.S. is already their largest bilateral partner, and look to our friendship as key in ensuring the accord stays on track” (…)”I have emphasized to Kibaki and Odinga the need to work closely with civil society and the private sector to carry out the reform agenda in an inclusive manner” (…)”With timely support from USAID’s Office of Transition Initiatives, we will expand our support for Parliament” (…)”The bolstering of USAID’s democracy and governance funds is enabling us to expand support for grassroots reconciliation efforts, particularly in hard hit Rift Valley Province” (…)”We are continuing to provide humanitarian assistance on an urgent basis, including upgrades to IDP camps in preparation for the impending rainy season” (…)”Once the coalition government is in place, we plan to brief PM Odinga and relevant ministers on the U.S.-Kenyan partnership, and to lay out key priorities for action (including legislative priorities like anti-money-laundering). We will provide similar briefings to Members of Parliament” (…)”We are working with relevant government ministries and the private sector (including the American Chamber of Commerce) to encourage the return of tourism and to intensify support for U.S. investment” (…)”We are working with Peace Corps to begin the return of volunteers during April and May” (…)”Other steps to demonstrate engagement with the new coalition government may include a U.S. naval ship visit to Mombasa in early May” (…)”This strong U.S. leadership will be further bolstered as we influence donors and international financial institutions (IFIs) to provide appropriate support for Kenya” (WikiLeaks, 20.04.2009).
Uhuru Kenyatta Presidental Ambition:
“Uhuru Kenyatta appears to be working towards a presidential run in 2012. While many have pointed out that replacing President Kibaki, a Kikuyu, by another Kikuyu, would be unlikely due to anti-Kikuyu sentiments prevalent across much of Kenyan society, Kenyatta may be encouraged to attempt a presidential run due to shifting political dynamics that make potential challengers seem weak” (…)”Kenyatta is taking steps that are clearly intended to bolster his political standing and mobilize support. His appointment as Finance Minister was seen by many as an implicit endorsement by Kibaki; it provides a powerful platform for Kenyatta to pursue presidential ambitions” (…)”Kenyatta also increases the support he is likely to receive in working behind the scenes to ensure that parliamentarians never approve an independent special tribunal to hold accountable those involved in post-election violence” (…)”Ex-President Moi,s son Gideon could compete for control, but at the end of the day an accommodation could be worked out.(Kenyatta was Moi,s designated successor and ran in 2002 on the KANU ticket.) Gideon Moi and other KANU stalwarts have been pressing Kenyatta to focus his energies on rebuilding KANU” (…)”Kikuyu political dynamics seem to be favoring Kenyatta” (…)”A number of sources report close contacts between Kibaki and Kenyatta, and between those two and William Ruto, a potential ally” (…)”Kenyatta and Ruto is focused on a deal whereby Ruto uses his influence among Kalenjins to facilitate the reintegration of the Kikuyu internally displaced persons in Rift Valley; in return, Ruto would get a significant share of important economic positions for his Kalenjin political allies” (…)”The reason that Kenyatta is assumed to be on the Waki Commission list of suspected perpetrators of post-election violence is his fund-raising to support Mungiki violent actions against Kalenjins during the post-election violence. Some reports indicate that Kenyatta has tried to distance himself from the Mungiki” (…)”Kenyatta may see shifting political dynamics as opening the way for a presidential run. Odinga is increasingly perceived as feckless, unable or unwilling to govern effectively and move forward the reform agenda” (…)” (WikiLeaks, 26.06.2009).
Thanks for reading and hope you got enlighten and new information.
WikiLeaks – ‘KENYA ELECTIONS: MAIN OPPOSITION CANDIDATE ODINGA LOOKING PRESIDENTIAL’ (09.10.2007), Link: https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/07NAIROBI3991_a.html
WikiLeaks – ‘RESOLVING KENYA’S CABINET IMBROGLIO’ (09.04.2008), Link:https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08NAIROBI960_a.html
WikiLeaks – ‘CORRECTED COPY: KENYA’S POLITICAL PROCESS AND U.S. ENGAGEMENT’ (20.04.2008), Link: https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08NAIROBI798_a.html
WikiLeaks – ‘UHURU KENYATTA – PRESIDENTIAL AMBITIONS AND THE’ (26.06.2009), Link: https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/09NAIROBI1296_a.html