“I wish that we had been able to hold full democratic elections of one person one vote across Somalia, but because of unavoidable circumstances, we are ending up with an indirect electoral process. But let me underline that our aim is to ensure a smooth, peaceful and inclusive electoral process that will lead to a secure and democratic transition in November, with no extension of the current government’s mandate. This will constitute a first step towards the implementation of the one person one vote mechanism by 2020” – Hassan Sheik Mohamud to Newsweek (Conor Gaffey – ‘Exclusive: Somalia President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud Tells Newsweek How He Will Destroy Al-Shabab’ 29.09.2016, Newsweek).
Today near Banadir Court in Hamar Weyne the convoy of Ex-President Hassan Sheik Mohamud was targeted and there was shots fired by Somali forces. This was happening as the ex-President was going to attend a reconciliation meeting.
Earlier this year, government militias and troops have raided his home as well. Therefore, this isn’t anything new, which is occurring on the regular now.
This is maybe Interim-President Farmaajo’s way of proving his point to the former President. As a reminder of who is still in-charge and has the power. While his Prime Minister Roble is getting the credit for setting up a time-frame and a election road-map. Which is still in the same manner as previous ones.
The government of Farmaajo isn’t able to fulfil the dream of the ex-President to have one person one vote system in Somalia. It’s still based on delegates and the elected MPs will vote for who become the President. This isn’t universal suffrage, but more of the same.
The current President haven’t delivered just like predecessor didn’t, but at least to his effort was a steady transition. Which this President will not be remembered for, as the current interim-President has tried to be unelected and push for a further extension. That clearly backfired and now we are seeing a new process.
However, the guns has been silent after skirmishes in the capital in late April. Now we are seeing they are returning, as the parties are meeting and ensuring their next steps ahead of the election. The interim-President should be more careful. He has already targeted to demote and investigate several who took part in April skirmishes. Therefore, we know there actions made and it’s questionable indeed.
Prime Minister Roble have to carry this and Farmaajo can be devious in the background. Today’s news and reports are worrying. It could have gone really bad and that could have escalated things further. Instead of going forward on the momentum of the 27th May 2021 Agreement. Peace.
“President Mahama whose appointment as the AU envoy has been roundly welcomed by the Council of Presidential Candidates of Somalia, and the Coalition of Somalia’s Federal Member States, further cautioned in his letter to the AU Chairperson, Moussa Faki Mahamat, that the lack of support by the Federal Government could jeopardize the whole process and undermine the hopes that the entire world has in bringing peace to the esteemed land of Somalia” (Joyce Bawah Mogtari – ‘John Mahama withdraws acceptance as African Union Envoy to Somalia’ 20.05.2021).
Today, the Primer Minister Roble is having talks at a Airport Hotel in Mogadishu. As the election impasse meeting is being held. While they are moving forward on the 17th September 2020 agreement. However, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) haven’t played their cards right.
That is why we are here today and things are still moving slowly. That’s because ex-President Farmaajo and Villa Somalia wanted this to move glacier slow. The state have arranged it like this and that’s why we are in May 2021 and things are yet to be resolved. This is deliberate and to say something else is foolish.
The ex-President wanted to so dearly to become a transitional one without any election. He even got an extension at the Lower House of Parliament, which was later revoked. This is why the whole process have become like this. Also, after skirmishes and direct bloody attacks in Mogadishu. The stalemate was getting dangerous and the means of getting their way was becoming fierce.
We should be happy that the guns are silenced and that the ex-President gave a mandate to his appointed Prime Minster to handle the security and the election. However, he could have done this much earlier and closer to his final days of office. His still lingering in office, but without any true mandate to his name. The same with the legislators and the appointed leadership in the ministries. That’s because of the game the ex-President played.
The meeting today is a sign of hope, but I don’t trust the FGS who are so easily trigged by foreign interference. They have asked the African Union to help out, but dismissed their help. They have said they don’t want anyone to interfere, but days after the ex-President went to Kinshasa asking for help. Therefore, the lack of process and due diligence is clear.
Mahama as a Special Envoy is just a scapegoat, which wouldn’t have caused any harm. Farmaajo used Ethiopians as the issue before the previous election. This election everything associated or had have talked to anyone in Nairobi is the problem. That’s why Mahama had to go because he had previously participated as a envoy in Kenya. Which is ridiculous, but the game the Lords of Mogadishu plays.
However, this is also a statement of how little it takes to not have trust. As the parties themselves cannot move things forward and blame each other. Farmaajo wants to seal his fate and retain power. That is evident. He rather have his personal armies to settle scores, than initially work things out. His risking his career and his position to keep power.
The National Electoral Consultative Assembly that’s to be held on Saturday is either a sign of real hope or another stalemate. We can wonder if they will pursuit peaceful movement or see if the FGS has laid down more traps ahead. Because, I lack trust in the FGS and how they have handled this so far. Roble has bought peace, but that’s weak peace. It can easily spire out again, if there isn’t anything substantial put forward by Villa Somalia and Prime Minister. Which I hope for, but is wondering when I can initially see it.
I hope to the almighty that they can settle and work towards the 17th September Agreement, but there needs to be proof of this now. As the months have passed and the FGS haven’t delivered it. They have postponed and played all games. Now, the empasse have to end and the reality have to kick-in.
We just have to wait and see, but expect the National Salvation Front and the Council for Presidential Candidates to act upon what happens this Saturday. There will reactions if there is no signs or movement whatsoever. We can live in hope, but Roble has a mountain to climb. He has to prove his weight and worth. Not only to himself, but to the Federal Republic of Somalia as well. Peace
The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and Villa Somalia have now badly manoeuvred the mediation and possible third party involvement in the election impasse created by the President and his “Yes-Men”. Clearly, the state have been able to sway their misgivings and getting their way in the past by the way the state went out of its way to expel United Nations Envoy to Somalia Nicholas Haysom. This here follows a pattern now, but it’s more depressing than that.
The ones who doesn’t see it. Clearly should follow this mockery of legitimizing the current affairs. It is clear that the ones in charge is only asking the African Union (AU) to get the rest of the International Community to move away. Villa Somalia already have their appointed Prime Minister to run it all, but the ex-President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed Farmaajo is still getting his way. Just had to give up his 2 year extension, but that’s all.
Now we have seen a joke of foreign response and getting mediation. Just read these three reports since the 20th April to the 12th May 2021. That is just a month and it’s a side-show.
On the 20th April 2021:
“President Farmaajo, who arrived in Kinshasa for an official visit on Monday, met DR Congo President Félix Tshisekedi, who is also the AU chairman, for two hours. During the meeting, he briefed President Tshisekedi on the political and security situation in Somalia. “President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed particularly insisted that the African Union and chairman should play a leading role to facilitate and frame the negotiations and the dialogue between all the Somali stakeholders,” a dispatch from the Presidential Palace in Kinshasa said” (Patrick Illunga – ‘Somalia: Mohamed Farmaajo Accepts AU Mediation’ 20.04.2021, Daily Nation/AllAfrica).
On the 9th of May 2021 the Somalia Minister of Foreign Affairs Abdirizak Mohamud notified and wrote a letter to the African Union Commission Chairperson Moussa Faki Mahamat. Where the message was clear from the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and Villa Somalia. As the final piece of the letter say: “The earlier envisaged rule of the high representative was all the more sensitive given the political nature of the task. Therefore, it’s indeed surprising that a candidate with an extensive link with Kenya’s leadership has been chosen by the AU to facilitate talks on a political impasse partly engineered by the Kenyan leadership has supported” (…) “I hereby notify the the African Union of the formal withdrawal of support by the Federal Government of Somalia for the AU Representative for Somalia” (Somalia Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation letter to African Union Commission Chairperson Mahamat, 09.05.2021).
On the 13th May 2021:
“A source told Garowe Online that Prime Minister Mohamed H. Roble was aware of Villa Somalia’s rejection of the AU envoy. According to the report, PM and his advisers believe that the new envoy will undermine the role of the PM in the talks expected to take place in Mogadishu on May 20, Somalia” (Garowe Online, 13.05.2021).
This here makes it seem like a insincere gesture. That the Somali Ex-President only travelled to Kinshasa to buy more time and later get somebody to talk too. Though initially not wanting anyone. It is just mere luck that the former Ghana President John Mahama was part of the mediation post-2017 elections in Kenya. Not like Mahama or even John Kerry made strides or became popular in the political circles in Nairobi. Still, that is made as an excuse and supposed to be more “Kenyan” interference in Mogadishu.
The way this has been played out is not a winning strategy for Farmaajo or Roble. They are maybe thinking this is smooth sailing, but instead they are humiliating themselves. First they are asking for something and when they get it. They say no to it like an entitled brat. That’s maybe because the same administration was able to send Haysom packing and change the UN Envoy as well. Therefore, they think they can do it here too.
Farmaajo and Villa Somalia is really liking to be on the knifes edge. This sort of behaviour isn’t making the mediation or the process more believable. Though everyone should hope for a process on the 17th September 2020 accord. Therefore, Roble have to build trust with all the Federal Member States and Presidential Candidates as well. This will not be easy.
Especially, when Villa Somalia plays things out like this. That doesn’t create trust in them. Instead it opens up mind to question them more. Because, many of them are the same one that stalled process and did what they could to get a unconstitutional two year extension. Peace.