The Stand-Off in Mogadishu continues: The Clash of the Big-Men!

Mogadishu, April 4, 2018 – Over 300 well-armed special forces contingents of Danab, known as Somali Commandos, are deployed in Mogadishu today, including strategic locations, main intersections of the city as well as parliament building near the State House. These young forces were exclusively trained to destroy and dismantle Al Shabaab, but their deployment indicates reckless leadership at Villa Somalia who wouldn’t hesitate to misuse and abuse the purpose of our armed forces: to protect the country against foreign enemy and domestic terrorism. “It’s such a very unfortunate that we witness U.S. funded and trained special forces deployed in the parliament” said Honorable Ali Omar, a member of parliament who expressed shock and called the move a blatant abuse of power and authority. He added, “Danab was never used before in this manner, even during the highly contested election.” (U.S. Funded Special Forces Used for Political Standoff in Somalia, 04.04.2018).

The situation in Mogadishu politically still at a stalemate, between the same fractions that has been going on for weeks now. This is between the Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire and Lower House Speaker Mohamed Osman Jawari. While this is happening, the Parliament has been in lock-down and lack of plenary sessions for the voting of ‘No Confidence’ for either parties. As secret meetings, as well as soldiers and mercenaries are involved now.

Bancroft mercenaries was seen at the Parliament today, as well as the Peacekeeping Force own leadership was around the Speaker today, talking about how the political stakeholders has to find solution and have dialogue. This is happening as the recent days, the President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed Faramajo even asked the Speaker directly to resign, but he retorted that he worked for people and not for the President. Therefore, there been none wished reactions from the Speaker.

Yesterday evening, parts of the capital was under lock-down, soldiers sealing of the streets as the government prepared for the voting. They blocked Members of Parliament to enter in the morning today at the Parliament. While this has been going on UN Representative for Somalia Michael Keating has talked and had a session during this week with the Prime Minister, but not stepped further into the nests of eagles. He is afraid he might become a prey if this go south.

The lack of clear leadership, as well as the political mind-games, while the stakes are so high. The military, the Somali National Army (SNA) has taken away the safety detail of the speaker, while he has moved soldiers from AMISOM. This is clearly, showing how the mandate of foreign forces are involved in the midst of the stand-off. AMISOM and American Mercenaries are all involved in the political hit-job.

You know things get worse when the government are putting the blame on someone: “Commander of Police Gen Bashir Abdi Mohamed accused Speaker Jawari of bringing armed men into parliament, says he ordered security forces not to open fire. MPs supporting Jawari say they were his normal bodyguards” (Harun Maruf, 04.04.2018). The Police Commander is clearly, saying Jawari who later claimed it was just bodyguards he took to the Parliament, most likely so. He later in the day lost this and the AMISOM has to secure his passage. Clearly, the pettiness of the leadership is not over yet.

There are underlining factors to this, but clearly, there are some foreign pressure and foreign funding, since the government are using mercenaries to close of the Parliament. Some claim the DP Port Berbera deal with Somaliland, Ethiopia and UAE is the reason behind it. Since the Parliament wants to make it “null and void” and the government want it to be. Because they are greedy to get their taking of the profits made by the Somaliland agreement.

But his escalated situation is also all the guns that is in the streets, as Al-Shabaab is able to drop of mines and bombs in the city. That they have been able through the stand-off. Even as the SNA, Mercenaries and AMISOM is guarding the city, but they are preoccupied to keep politicians safe. Instead of saving the whole city.

There is also reported that the Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF) brigade will take charge of the security of the Parliamentary building. While the reports are also saying all Parliamentary Business is suspended. That is making sense, since all parties should go back to the drawing-board and find a solution. Instead, the stand-off is because of pride and wanting to gain personal power. To show whose the big-man and skip procedure.

That the President had a meeting with the Security Commanders after the failure in Parliament is natural, as he has used all sorts of tricks to install fear together with the Prime Minister. Who both haven’t come out with a reason. The ones who has been the Speaker who is caring about his career and the protocol of the Parliament. A Parliament that again and again, has been invaded by aliens and soldiers, with intent to spread fear and get the MPs in line with the government. They are really going all in, like this will clear the way of extensive rule for the two partners in crime.

This is clearly not the final say, but the relics of hope of good ending is dwindling, why? Because all men are going for the guns, to solve political squabble, instead of taking it by codes and protocol, the state has used all sort of military outfits, while the Parliament has done what it could to cope. Jawari is the only one who has been transparent and open, dropping often statements, while the state has been silent and hope that the fear was the final straw. That has not worked.

BREAKING: Somali army chief Gen Abdiweli Jama Gorod says a group of soldiers who entered parliament today w/ weapons has been “detained”. According to a security source, about 45 soldiers were arrested. Earlier Speaker Jawari said he only took his bodyguards into the parliament” (Harun Maruf, 04.04.2018). This is clearly, showing that the state is retaliating against him and wants him to suffer, because he didn’t resigned like they wanted yesterday. While the Parliament is in chaos and suspended.

The interference and uncertainty will continue. The lack of transparency and neither clear motives are putting the Parliament in jeopardy, but that is maybe the will of the President and Prime Minister. They don’t care as long as they are on top. They are ruling and can do so, because they have the army and the Danab brigade to put on the streets of Mogadishu. But certainly, this is not looking like strength, but weakness.

The PM tried to spin the media to say the Speaker broke the peace of the Parliament with his Security Detail, this from the man who sent the SNA into the Parliament and forced everyone out. Blocked the Parliament and had AMISOM get in February 2018. Therefore, trusting the PM on this matter is a blatant lie, to overshadow his own ignorant attitude towards the Parliament.

It is making a mockery of the Lower House and the Parliament. Because they are not delivering the policies or safety, but clashing ego’s. It to show character and man-up, not send more guns to the streets. Time to talk and listen, find a good way out that makes sense. Since this doesn’t! Peace.

U.S. Funded Special Forces Used for Political Standoff in Somalia (04.04.2018)

Somaliland MoFA Press Release on Berbera Port and DP World Deal (29.03.2018)

Somalia: National Rescue Plan (31.03.2018)

UNSOM Renewal Statement by Ambassador Abukar Osman, Permanent Representative of Somalia to the UN in NY (27.03.2018)

Statement Issued by the Inter-Governmental Authority On Development (IGAD) on the Ongoing Political Tension in Somalia (26.03.2018)

Fragile Somalia is now taken advantage of by its neighbors!

Just as the International Community, the United Nations and African Union Mission are holding a tight grip, while the Mogadishu political scene is in full squabble and in-fighting. The neighbors are setting their sights on more land, Somali land to take control over. Over the last 24 hours, there are reports that Ethiopia has taken control over Aato District of Bakool province, where the Ethiopian government has built a hospital and a Police Station. They have annexed it without any forewarning.

Just like that the Kenyan government has started to building a border wall at Beled-hawo Town, the Kenyans are extending their border and their land with the building of the wall. It is a trick to grab some more land away from Somalia. Just like Ethiopia just have built themselves as a state in Aato District. That is the province closest to the Ethiopian border. So, it is fitting, the same as the Kenyan.

This is happening as the Berbera Port deal between Somaliland, Ethiopia and DP World has gotten into issues, as the Mogadishu politicians are trying to stop it and also the connection with Ethiopia. Who has already had a Berbera Corridor, that has been a project since October 2014 and has involved both IGAD, World Bank and other international development banks. All to secure a transport hub between Addis Ababa and Berbera port. That is fitting that the added pressure and lack of transparency between the regional government and the central government in Mogadishu, gets into question. That led to issues between Speaker Mohamad Osman Jawari and Prime Minister Hassan Ali Kheire. Money talks and also adds guns.

That is why the whole play of the international community, while the Mogadishu government lacks control and oversight. While most of the family members of the cabinet are living abroad, while the leaders themselves, are eating for bad deals. And they don’t have the security or training to secure the borders. That is why Kenya and Ethiopia are taking charge on the porous borders, they are invading and annexing land. Because it has no consequence to the sovereignty of Somalia.

AMISOM, who has foreign soldiers on mandate cannot even keep Mogadishu totally safe, as the escalation of car-bombs and fatalities of civilians are a sign of troubles ahead. The President hasn’t attacked or asked for reasons for the neighbors annexation of land. Even if he cares or afraid of doing so. While the PM isn’t acting on it either. Even UN’s Micheal Keating hasn’t addressed it, he who loves to be the face of the Republic. Now he is gone missing on the map. Just like President Farmajo, who should fight for his borders and his state, instead he is busy elsewhere.

This is worrying, that the Kenyans can take this land, that Ethiopia does too. That them all are doing this, that the DP Deal with Ethiopia, while the secrecy of the Berbera Corridor deal is showing it was planned a long while ago, since Ethiopia is landlocked and wants more safe ports than only in Djibouti. That is the sign, it is the Ethiopian power-play, while Kenya just showing power to take more land in self-defense. Still, it is not right to do that to a sovereign.

I am not even Somali and I am worried about the porous borders, the lack of manpower, the Somali National Army and the Police Service, when the foreign states can just do this. You take a breadcrumb, another breadcrumb and next time slice of bread, with time you take the whole bread. That is how we are as people, state is not different from that. As a weak state, that is taken advantage by its neighbor. They know this, because the AMISOM and UN Mission is not training or trying to achieve a secure state. The ones in Central Government want to live on donor funds and rampant corruption, instead of building institutions and stronger army to secure the borders. Because if they do, then they cannot beg for aid. A pledge they can eat without doing any work for it. Peace.

Final Communique of the Nairobi Action Plan on Durable Solutions for Somali Refugees and Reintegration of Returnees in Somalia (22.03.2018)

Coup in Mogadishu Part II: Was the action today from AMISOM a redeployment or a takeover of the Parliament?

Yesterday’s stand-off in the Parliament as the two tabled ‘no confidence’ votes transpired into the Prime Minister Hassan Ali Kheire decision to send the Special Guard to the Parliament to prove his power to the Lower House Speaker Mohamed Osman Jawari. Today, The African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) sent troops to the Parliament to settle the stand-off of yesterday, if these we’re the orders of the Force Commander Lieutenant General Osman Noor Soubagleh or somebody else is hard to know.

But the political squabble and the use of military force to settle the score cannot continue. This transpiring efforts will only undermine the state and the means of the Federal Government of Somalia. That is not a show of strength, when the PM orders the Special Guards to the Parliament, neither is it show of strength, when the Peacekeepers has to occupy the National Assembly. We all know that is a bad sign ahead. No matter what they call the action today, if it a redeployment or a takeover. Yesterday, was a vicious act to spike fear in the mind of Jawari, even if I doubt it would do that to him,

We can wonder where President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed Farmajo has been, why he hasn’t said anything, condemn either of the political actors, neither his deputy or the speaker. No one has been answered, the President is so silent. You could think he was hiding beneath a rock or try to get to Addis Ababa. Because, he is not heard from. Even the fishes speaks more of the recent acts in Mogadishu than him, I am sure Nemo has some answers for Farmajo.

Another one, who usually challenges the political landscape and acts like a local kingpin, is United Nations Special Representative for Somalia, Michael Keating. I was expecting to blaze all guns and spiteful chants of different types. As he sometimes at international affairs and even at forums are more viable than heads of the Federal Government of Somalia. Therefore, in an affair like this, he might should have taken more charge. Since he likes the spotlight and looks like he matters in Somalian questions.

With the AMISOM actions, they clearly used the status of the 11 Point of their mandate: “To provide and assist, as appropriate, protection to the Somali authorities to help them carry out their functions of government, and security for key infrastructure” (AMISOM – ‘AMISOM Mandate’). So the Parliament can be seen as part of Somali authorities and key infrastructure. Some call the acts today a redeployment and not a takeover. But after yesterday, it seems like an act to show their mandate to the people.

Since the Special Guards came yesterday, we can wonder how this will evolve, how the different fractions will behave and how the next few days will be. Since the PM has used the army for his personnel gain, while questions of others non-action shows their true face. It should be expected that the President acts and also address his closest Deputy, instead he has left him go of the hook. He could also have addressed the Speaker to clear the air. Instead, nothing has happen and the transpired affair shows.

The ending of a political career can show the weakest links, can show how they act under stress. The PM goes to use soldiers and use of the army to settle his affairs with men who wants him away. The Speaker tries to use protocol and find out if he is allowed to do the same. However, the one with the guns stops all activity, but he loses face, because they know it was wrong behavior and the world knows it.

PM Kheire has flipped has cards, but he doesn’t have a full-house, not even a straight flush, he should have wished he had a royal flush, but he didn’t. We could wish the PM had bluffed, but he didn’t stack the deck, he just went into with a bad hand. The risked all with all-in without knowing the consequences. We will see if he wins, but it will not be because of brilliant tactics, because it hasn’t been.

AMISOM has acted, but the tale of the Lower House of the Parliament is not over and the ‘No Confidence’ for either the Speaker and PM will come up again. But the one that has lost face is the PM. Who has misused his position and put himself in the line of fire, because of either arrogance or fear for his position. Peace.

Coup in Mogadishu: PM Khaire Vs. Speaker Jawari!

There are reports that the Somali National Army and the Special Guard on orders by the Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire today after there been secret meetings of a ‘No Confidence’ towards him and wanted it to be tabled at the Parliament. This was supposed to be a group of 40 MPs in the Parliament. However, the PM has addressed this with sending the army to the Parliament and seizing it. To silence and stop the House Speaker Mohamed Osman Jawari. As well as the PM took away the Security Detail for the Speaker hours earlier. This is really a stand-off between the two power brokers.

This week the blows between has been evident as the tablet ‘no confidence’ against Jawari, that was in the media on the 13th March, now on the 16th March, the whole brigade has blown over. Since the PM has used his powers to act against the people who wants him down.

Even United Nations in Somalia (UNSOM) has this Press Statement late today: “JOINT PRESS STATEMENT: International community extremely concerned by recent political developments in #Somalia, urges respect for constitutional processes to resolve differences” (UNSOM, 16.03.2018).

This stand-off is because of different ‘no confidence’ votes and signatures. Earlier in the week, there was 40 MPs at an undisclosed location planning to put forward a petition to vote on the future of the Prime Minister. However, that has no been countered, but the PM decided to order the army. Therefore, this isn’t procedure or trying to resolve matter with words or persuasion. The same issue as of the fear, there are reports of regroup of 91 MPs to support the suspension of the Session tomorrow tabled by the speaker. But that is only to be in the good graces of the ones using the army against the Parliament.

While the Minister of Security Mohamed Abukar Islow Dualle wants to deflect the reports that has been going on for hours, as they are saying: “denies reports of the seizure of the Parliament building, says it sent reinforcement units to boost the security” (Garowe Online, 16.03.2018).

Just to further verification to all the speculations, that this is real, the reporting from Radio Dalsan said this: ““The security of the Parliament is not our control.If anything happens in Parliament the responsibility is not mine but the PM.The security is not in our hands but has gone to the PM. The responsibility has been taken by him” Speaking to journalists at his office Jawari added” (…) “Radio Dalsan reporter Saleymaan Rage confirmed the presence of extra military personnel deployed at the Parliament buildings. These latest development followed this week’s failed vote of no confidence against Jawari” (…) “Mps loyal to Jawari have accused Khaire of being the mastermind of the vote of no confidence against Speaker Jawari. Jawari said that he is ready to face the motion on the floor of the house if the legal requirements are met” (…) “Deputy Speaker Abdulkadir Mudey on Thursday had announced that the motion is legitimate and will brought to the house. Jawari has been a speaker since 2012” (Radio Dalsan, 16.03.2018).

Jawari claims reason motion was initiatied again him is because “I refused to sign documents that are contrary to the principle and trust”. If any problem happens at building it’ll be the responsibility of the PM who ordered seizure, Somali people should know that, Jawari says” (Harun Maruf, 16.03.2018).

At this point, with the allegations going both ways, the weakest link seems to be the one who ordered the army and Special Guards to takeover the Parliament. Take away the Parliamentary Guards and the ones securing the Parliament Speakers Security. That is really to insult to injury and also intimidate the Speaker of the Lower House. Prime Minister Khaire are really messing up the political landscape and also showing his will to use force to stay in power.

That PM Khaire is afraid is evident by his actions, since he fears for both motions, that the Lower House would get enough signatures and votes to impeach him. That would have insulted him and also his career. Seemingly, the speaker since 2012 would follow procedure and make sure he didn’t get enough signatures against him. That is what the PM should be doing, making alliances and making sure the Parliament would be on his side, even as the secret meetings was appearing. However, he has instead sent the army and trying to tell it isn’t anything. Like the Speaker would cry foul and spread the news, when it is nothing. It is Mogadishu. He knows when he see army personnel and when they takeover of the Parliament.

This is a coup, where the Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire has taken all power in his hands and doesn’t care for the aftermath. He is clearly using his power and the position he has to stop the Speaker of the Lower House. Clearly, this is a violation and a stand-off. We just have to see, what will be the next movement. What it will cost for the Parliament, for the motions and for the Speaker. Even if this will backfire for the PM who is in-charge of the operation.

While we can wonder, why the President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed Faramajo has been silent and hasn’t acted? Doesn’t he care about the Parliament or the Speaker? Is he a puppet for the Prime Minister? That is things I wonder about, since this sort of action should have been done by the President and the No Confidence should been pushed with him first and then the PM. That would be common sense, as the MPs would bring down the center and maneuver down the food-chain. Instead, the Second in Command is the one people are questioning. Than, you know there are something behind closed-doors that is not known in public or disclosed yet. Peace.