The Astellon Capital Partners report on the Italian nation debt is troublesome, as the reports are indicating troubled waters ahead for controlling the debt and repayment on the defaulted loans. This will create other higher issues than only the Greek debt and interest-rates from Brussels and Berlin. The Italian and Rome problem will cause monetary effects for all of Europe, as the debt are like his:
“1980 –1995: Debt / GDP increased by 64%, due to high interest rates levied by Bank of Italy to fight inflation and promote exchange rate stability of Lira within European Monetary System, precursor to the Eurozone” (…)”1995 –2015: Debt / GDP increased by 11%, due entirely to debt servicing costs as Italy ran a primary fiscal surplus over this period” (Astellon Capital Partners, P: 2, 2017).
The continued pressure of the Italian debt is showed with the average primary balance since 1995 have been 2, 1% and the average interest costs of the GDP have been 5, 5%. “Italy among the most fiscally sound member states in the Eurozone, yet also among the most burdened by interest costs” (Astellon Capital Partners, P: 3, 2017).
These numbers are not really positive at all, as the high interest rate by the Bank of Italy together with the rise of debt servicing that increased 11% alone in a decade. That the Italian state have the amount of costs of interests amounting to 5,5% says lots of the economic pressure on the budgets and fiscal policies within the government structures. This does not like a prosperous and strong economic situation.
The report continues with more worrying numbers that the Italian labour costs are 11% higher than rest of the EU average. Certainly also that the average productivity of the labour are 12% lower than the Eurozone average. So you got higher paid workers that work less, which also isn’t strengthening the economy.
That the Italians bank’s they have deflated badly loans that has gone from under 5% in 2005 to the running value of close to 15% in 2016. So that the European Central Bank have bought into the government debt issuance: “2014 –2019: At current government debt net issuance rates and announced QE levels, ECB will have been responsible for financing 100% of Italy’s deficits from 2014 –2019”. This is if the debt is: “Assumes €50bn annual run-rate of government net debt issuance” (Astellon Capital Partners, P: 6, 2017). That is a hefty sum when considering all the other fiscal issues that already put forward.
“Substantial increase in non-bank net purchases of Italian debt required ECB and Italian Banks acquired 88% of government debt net issuance since 2008. Over next six years non-banks will need to increase purchase activity to 7x that of past nine years” (Astellon Capital Partners, P: 7, 2017). So a nation that struggles with high paid performance with low productivity are suddenly needed to get the workforce to 7 times higher purchase activity, meaning the production and selling has to increase seven-fold if the state should have ability to sustain the defaulted debt that has increased and the debt the ECB has bought. Together with the Italian Bank gold-reserve which is lower than the stated and needed figures to be sufficient. The bank has gold-reserves by today’s value about €100bn, but by the ECB agreement need to collateralised that needs to be up to €350bn. That the report claims to be only 25%; while the assets are dwindling too and that is also worrying!
The Assets have from 2011 gone from being around 0% or none, to 2016 when the assets of the Italian bank is now in 2016 -20%. Because this have come a German proposal to avoid an new Argentine Bank collapse case. As the Italian Bank are required independent assessments of debt sustainability.
The great risks for Italy and the Italian republic are these scenarios. Like the hedge funds can buy into with high risks and yields through BTP yields during the 2016-2017. Second scenario in 2018 is that the ECB or European Central Bank will be a marginal buyer of the government bonds and buying debts. Third scenario is that the Italian Banks becoming net-sellers and therefore losing their assets with less of profits in the 2016-2017. Last scenario is unilateral re-profiling or re-domination or some form of Greek-Haircuts by 2017-2018, that means trade-offs and cutting taxes to try to revamp the economy (Astellon Capital Partners, P: 21, 2017).
With these numbers and situation, there are certain men in ECB and in Italy that is worried. The strength and sovereign nation of Italy has to find ways of restructuring the debt and assets. What is certain is that the debtors cannot take it easy on this one. The Italian debts and reserves are worrying as the debt has to restructure and the focus on how the Italian republic has to get more productivity and create more production so the taxes and debt per GDP can go down. This will be painful for the Italian state and their government institutions, together with all the debt and bad-debt that the state has to cover, because the banks cannot afford to lose all of these fiscal funds. There have to be a revolution of something if the Italian republic and its workforce are able to 7 times higher purchase activity. That will not come easy and how they will ever achieve that must be by a unicorn arriving and spinning the Fiat wheels of Torino more than ever before; even getting the world more hooked on Milan fashion design or Illy coffee. Peace.
Astellon Capital Partners – ‘Q1 2017 Notes No. 24 – Ciao a tutti: An orderly restructuring of Italian debt’
Gianni Pittella said: “This is no time for polemics. This is a historic event, we need clarity. Do we get clarity from the Brexit side? Difficult to see why all of a sudden there’s no clarity.” (European Parliament, 2016).
There are many of these days when one Member State have taken the vote to leave the Almighty European Union and their Organizations. This is rare occasion that shows the ramifications on the European continent. The leadership of Europe and Britain will be tested and go through fire, what we as Europeans can hope for is humility from the different partners and regulators. The Nobility of President of the European Parliament Jean-Claude Juncker shows of a man who has been punched in the stomach and tries to sustain the honor of fellow kin; while the others in Parliament we’re either ignorant, pan-Eurocentric or just wanting to speak of honoring the vote of confidence of other Eurosceptic. This is the start of the solution.
As the MEP spoke, this is how the Plenary Meeting we’re presented:
“The European Parliament held an extraordinary plenary session in Brussels on Tuesday 28 June for MEPs to discuss and vote on a resolution assessing the outcome of the UK referendum and its consequences for the European Union. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and Council representatives also took part” (European Parliament, 2016).
The Northern Ireland MEP Martina Anderson said:
“There was a democratic vote, we voted to remain [in Northern Ireland]. I tell you, the last thing that the people of Ireland needs is an EU border with 27 member states, stuck right in the middle of it” (…)”The EU has supported our peace process,” she said. “I ask you to continue to do that” (…) “MEPS like Diane Dodds and Marine Le Pen would say that we in the North of Ireland are bound by a UK vote. We say we are not. Like the previous MEP Mr Smith, we ask you to respect our vote. We stand by the vote of the people from the North of Ireland, just like Scotland which voted remain. We accept, we respect and we will defend the wishes of the people of the North of Ireland.” (European Parliament, 2016).
The Scottish MEP Alyn Smith said:
“While I am proudly Scottish, I am also proudly European. Please remember Scotland did not let you down and I beg you colleagues, do not let Scotland down now.” (European Parliament, 2016).
The English MEP Nigel Farage Said:
“The United Kingdom will not be the last member State to leave the European Union.
“It is up to the British Government to invoke article 50. And I have to say that I do not think that we should spend too long in doing it” (…) “What I’d just be pragmatic, sensible, grown-up, realistic, and let’s get between us a sensible tariff-free deal and thereafter recognise that the United Kingdom will be your friend, that we will trade with you, we will cooperate with you, we will be your best friends in the world. But do that sensibly and allow us to go off and pursue our global ambitions and future” (…) “The only upheaval is political upheaval where we see the Prime Minister resigned and indeed the British Commissioner Lord Hill resigned. They both have done so for the right reasons. You never know, we might be getting rid of the Labour Party Leader as well. But upheavals in politics can actually be a very healthy and very good thing” (European Parliament, 2016).
The Answer from President Jean-Claude Juncker:
““You can’t leave a nation up to its nationalists. You have to respect the nations, but you don’t need to respect the nationalists, they are not patriots, they are anti-Europeans. They are not patriots at all.” (…) “The UK didn’t vote on austerity policies, they didn’t vote on the protection of external borders. The UK is not a member of the euro zone, so the euro policies does not apply to the UK. The UK is not a part of the Schengen area so the United Kingdom is a master of its own borders.” (European Parliament, 2016).
First rebuttal from Nigel Farage:
“”Isn’t it funny? When I came here 17 years ago and I said that I wanted to lead a campaign to get Britain to leave the European Union, you all laughed at me. Well, I have to say you are not laughing now, are you?” (…) “And the reason you are so upset, the reason you are so angry has been perfectly clear from all the angry exchanges this morning: you, as a political project, are in denial. You are in denial that your currency is failing, you are in denial… well, just look at the Mediterranean.” (European Parliament, 2016).
First Rebuttal from Jean-Claude Juncker:
“I am sad after the vote in the UK. I really would have liked that the UK would have decided to stay with us but they decided differently” (…) “I’m sad because I’m not a robot, a bureaucrat or a technocrat. I’m a human being and I regret the results of the referendum” (…) “I would like the UK to clarify its position. We cannot allow ourselves a prolong time of uncertainty period. There won’t be secret negotiations. No notification, no negotiation” (…) “We need to reassure Europeans. Our flight continues, our journey continues” (European Parliament, 2016).
The European Parliament President Martin Schulz:
“The will of the majority of citizens of the United Kingdom must be done. It has to be respected and that is why we will be looking today intensively at the issue of Article 50 and its triggering.” (European Parliament, 2016).
If these words don’t prove something, then nothing does. We can see the liability of the vote and now the fragile situation that is created between the United Kingdom and the European Union. Certainly the situation does not become better with the consideration and rhetoric used by either UKIP Nigel Farage or European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. The words between UKIP leader and European Commission President we’re not worthy of Parliament, reasons why I didn’t address the Le Pen or other ‘Nationalist’ who wants to coin in on the current affairs instead of creating progress. I am not a man who supports the EU, but still see the value of integrity and transparency between the counter-parts of Europe and collaboration of the Union.
With that in mind, the Northern Ireland and Scottish MEPs represented their constituency with honor and also respecting the vote, still wishing to be taken serious as people and voters who wanted to ‘Remain’, they proved the hard task of Nobility towards the Brexit Referendum in the whole United Kingdom and their own constituency, a reason alone why the other MEPs respected their words and character. While after this, Nigel Farage continued his flabbergasting words and acting as brute, instead of happy victor with some clarity. Farage was like a kid who finally gotten his candy he had nagged for the whole car-trip. Instead of being a Politician with humility and trying to commend the Union, as he forgets or trips on the escape button; like Farage doesn’t know that the levels for leaving the Union the rubberstamp by the fellow MEPs who are responsible to accept the agreement between UK and EU in the near future.
While Jean-Claude Juncker is a disappointment, he can be right about how he perceive the Union, but the doubt of the centralized organization of Brussels that many Europeans have a problem with, and doesn’t need to be nationalist or right-wing separatist, more about the question on being Sovereign, which is major question towards the EU. But, his attitude and quarrel with Farage, doesn’t make him look bigger, instead like a little kid losing his favorite toy. That is not the look the ‘aftermath’ of the UK referendum needs.
What the Italian MEP Gianni Pittella said was spot on, as the Italian sees the big picture and the accurate vivid the uncertainty and needed for clarifications on the United Kingdom and the EU leaving as the Member State of the Union. The Italian are representing something refreshing and other in the debate, as the Scottish and Northern Ireland MEPs are respectable, but also wishing to be considering as special candidates for Membership in the future it seems. This is as the England and Wales population; we’re the majority voted on the whole of referendum. While the other we’re either biased for the Nationalistic or Eurocentric that the ideas of addressing it with equal sense and clarity, instead of being there to act upon the decision made by the British public with care and honor. Certainly some like EU Commission President Juncker acted wrong… he acted with the sense and talked with caution instead of childish towards Farage, there would be a better taste in my mouth as an outsider.
But let me not forget what MEP Greens Belgium Phillippe Lamberts: “No wall will be high enough and thick enough to isolate Europe from the challenges of the 21st century” (…) “Today you can only have sovereignty if you share that sovereignty” (European Parliament, 2016).
We can question the future and how this will end, if the EU negotiations towards the UK will be in the fashion of the Commission President, then the Farage should take care of his words, while the bureaucracies on both sides have to be solid and clear on their programs, as the monetary policies and the exclusions from the current programs from the EU will hit the UK with unknown consequence, as the EEA or other possible tangible ways in the Single-Market of Europe still will be on the line. The matter of the tone and progression as respectable men should be in the end the level of concern between the negotiators.
What is worrying that the level of attitude from men likes Nigel Farage, not that I am shocked as he does have the con-man, the fraudster and the snake-oil salesman smile and attitude that cannot be taken away from him. The United Kingdom must hope they send some talented and wise consular towards the European Union when they are pushing the Article 50 and triggering the 2 Year time-table to become a Non Member State. This is a reform and reformation takes time and UK need to take their time. While EU has to prove their Community and their Peace Project worthy and Juncker was not that today, I am disgusted by him and also by Farage, but Farage was more to expect then Juncker. Peace.
European Parliament – ‘UK referendum: European Parliament debate on outcome and consequences’ (28.06.2016 – 10:00 CET) link: http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/news-room/20160627STO33965/UK-referendum-MEPs-debate-outcome-and-consequences
Its silly season just some weeks before the Premier League starts up again. All the teams try to add on with players to sustain their place or get into a better position than last year. Teams that have gotten from the Championship for example Watford have used a tiny fortune on new players. Another team that are trying to be champion is Manchester United who has bought half of central Europe players and part of the Mediterranean countries big players to get into the league of Chelsea and Arsenal again. But this story is about neither. This story will be about loyalty.
Aston Villa is the old aristocrat in the Premier League. The Birmingham club is a royalty in some ways. Not that it’s Reading who has the nickname. But still the history of the club and range of level it has given the league it deserves credit. Times are changing big money has arrived and been here awhile. So that English players are getting rare in the British league of Premier League. Whatever Greg Dyke or Richard Scudamore is saying is because the FA getting loads of money with the TV deals. That is giving the clubs more money but isn’t helping the movement of players that really representing their clubs in the long run. You can’t buy loyalty. Especially when you can go from being a kid in the sticks and in a few years’ time to having a £30k a week and if you switch to the big ones you can get £100k a week.
This story is not about Raheem Sterling. He went as a kid from QPR and built a reputation in Liverpool. Wanted to win things and went to for the highest price ever for a British player £44m to Manchester City. This story that I am telling and describing is about Fabian Delph. Fabian Delph was first as a youth in Bradford City and Leeds. Later he was on a pro contract for Leeds for three years from 2006 – 2009. Delph was in 2009 Young Player of the Year. He went for about £8m to Aston Villa.
So now that we’re in 2015. There is more money in the League. We have title chasers who needs English players in the team line-up. This team is the same as the one who got Sterling. A team that has lost most of their English players in recent years the only player who has stayed through the years in the central team is goalie Joe Hart. Micah Richards went for free from Manchester City to Aston Villa. James Milner who the current manager Pellegrini and former manager Manchini who liked his services still him left on Bosman to Liverpool. They sold Boyata to Celtic as well before this season. The savior was the loan in from New York new club and former Chelsea player Frank Lampard. But now he really went over to the club. So in this sense the whole world has known about that the rich club Manchester City and it’s struggle to keep and getting good British players.
It’s in this context that Fabian Delph comes in. He was the captain in a team that barley saved them last year in the Premier League. Before Tim Sherwood came in there been two and a half years of Paul Lamberts reign. Three years of barley making it and having 2 months without goals last season before Tim Sherwood got hired as manager for the club. Also that the glamour of O’Neill era is totally gone and the owner tried to sell the club for ages. Therefore the budgets and standard of the squad has gone down. There haven’t been much invested in new players for a long time.
So this year’s silly season has been important for Aston Villa. Christian Benteke and Fabian Delph have been rumored away to Liverpool and Manchester City. They are the stars on the team together with Agbonlahor and Vlaar. Even been talk about Vlaar leaving the club.
Seven days ago Fabian Delph said that he would be loyal to the club. As he was proud of being captain of the team at that time the club they starting working on a new contract offer to Fabian Delph so that he would be appreciated at that level. They wanted upgrade the old contract of £30k a week to £80k a week. So that he would stay and feel rightfully earning in the league he has been playing in since 2009.
A Short Timeline:
On the 11th July 2015 he promised loyalty to Aston Villa after months of rumors and also closely going to medical in Manchester. This was after he was taken off the official internet page of the club and also in the ads for the new shirt.
Then later this week on the 16th July he switched his mind and went on with the deal to Manchester City. Had a medical and is rumored to sign a £100k a week for the Manchester club. Also he is part of filling up the quota of British players in the club. Leaving behind Aston Villa where he was captain.
So now two days after leaving for the second time the Birmingham club in the same summer. We can see why many fans are displeased with Fabian Delph. For a few days ago he promised himself again to Aston Villa. He signed a new contract for the club already in January. He has been a player who captured interest of big clubs for a while. In his contract he had a buy-out clause that Manchester City £8m. This was been met easily and is a cheap transfer for a British player for the club. When the prices of this players are souring look at Luke Shaw, Raheem Sterling and so on.
Therefore with this surprise move that he initially went from Aston Villa to Manchester City is a downer. It kills me a bit by bit because as a football fan we wish to have positive players who have loyalty to their clubs. It’s harder and harder to get by the day. I am not a Liverpool fan, still I wish there was more players like Stephen Gerrard. Fewer players are staying most of the careers in one team instead they are changing for a fortune anywhere else. In the same team its one player that is a standout I have already mention him as a star on the team: Gabriel Agbonlahor is loyal team player with quality. He is one of the few pivotal players you have in the Premier League. And he is a humble and a good guy.
So it’s sadden that the youth talent that came from 2009 came from Leeds went from Aston Villa on 16.07.2015 to Manchester City. So the speeches and quotes of loyalty in the start of the week was utter rubbish. City and Citizens should be happy for this coup. Delph is an amazing player. Always enjoyed watching him playing for Villa so it’s sad to see him leaving a team where he has a major impact and just be pawn on the chess set on the tactical field in Manchester. Like Bony was a phenomenon in Swansea after coming from Twente as a magnificent goal-scorer. He was a machine and a wonder to watch in Swansea. After my reckoning he scored two goals and two whole matches and 8 times substitute for the team.
If Delph will get the same treatment is not something I can proclaim. But that he want has as much impact as in Villa is a simple truth. Because Manchester City have more midfielders and players of quality then Villa, which we all know and also Delph already should know. So that he has changed from being a man and player speaking about loyalty. That loyalty only lasted less than a week. When he again went to City and got the new high paying contract.
I respect even more players like Stephen Gerrard and Agbonlahor, when I see how the summer sales are going. I am sad also by the way Iker Casillas went from Real Madrid to Porto. After winning everything worth having in the club he had been in all career. Stephen Gerrard had the same and even if he left for Los Angeles Galaxy with respect. Casillas went with sadness and not as hero. The same was with Xavi recently from Barcelona to the Middle East somewhere. So seeing players like this staying loyal and only leaving at the last straw of their career. That is because they want to be the main player in a club. And with their legacy they deserve something else then playing second fiddle. Though I hope they will come back to the club as representative and being part of backroom staff in the years to come. I don’t believe that will happen to Iker Casillias.
Delph has to stay somewhere and being loyal to it to get remember there. He has already made a mark in the jersey of Aston Villa. If he had stayed he could be respect and an honorable player in this times when fees and salaries are increasing to fairytale level. Therefore Agbonlahor could be an example for Delph. It’s understandable that certain players using clubs like Aston Villa as a stepping stone to a bigger club. Even if the club it’s like a royalty in the league. Still hasn’t had a top position since Martin O’Neill. Therefore players like Delph could have been a foundation for a bigger team and building a stabile club that could be far away from the three year relegation battle. Tim Sherwood can bring a lot of passion into a team. Still he needs quality and players that are loyal to his vision and club. As every club need. Delph in time he would be seen as a cornerstone in the midfield of the club and remembered as a loyal club player. A player who was there for the team while it was struggling for three seasons to battle relegation and trying to establish itself as a secure club in the league. Instead he went for the quick money in Manchester City. In a club that has won the league twice in last 4 years. They have gotten all the money of the world. But is the epitome of what is wrong in modern football. Though I am not a great fan of Manchester United, I still wish City to win over them, just because of the arrogance of the red devils. Still, the money of City doesn’t by the heritage and history as Villa has. That Delph could continue to be a part of. Especially since he spoke of loyalty recently, then switched and went anyway. Raheem Sterling did everything in his way to get out of Anfield and Liverpool. Delph was different and was silent as silly season went on. The rumors we’re steady. We all knew that City needed British players in this transfer window. They got two now and has Joe Hart. So they got quality homegrown players now.
Nevertheless Fabian Delph has proven that money is more important than leaving a legacy. As so many other players of his time as written before I wish there was more players like Stephen Gerrard and Gabriel Agbonlahor. They are heroes in my football heart even if I am not a supporter of their teams. Because these players are humble and hardworking staying to strive for their teams over time, on the other hand are Raheem Sterling and Fabian Delph.
A week went by and the truth came to surface what was important for Fabian Delph. So let’s see how his impact will be in the new squad and I hope that Villa get a new replacement that will stay and build on the new vision that Tim Sherwood has. And yes, I can’t wait for a new season and campaign of 2015/2016 in the Premier League. Rest of silly will be interesting, but I hope that no player plays it out as Delph did. The way he promised loyalty and then in like a windfall going back to Manchester City for a new medical. He has surely signed a new contract and gotten the number and new shirt for his new team. As he left Birmingham and went for the money, if I can advise him on one thing not that I believe he will read a single word I wrote. Fabian Delph shouldn’t speak again about loyalty and love for a club before you actually prove it in action. Peace.