“UPDATE: The elected EALA representatives and the votes attained.
Akol Rose Okullu 422
Namara Denis 415
Kakooza James 405
Odongo George Stephen 403
Paul Mwasa 401
Kadogo Babirye Veronica 383
Mugenyi Mary 367
Amongin Jacquiline 338
Siranda Gerald 233” (NilePost, 29.09.2022).
My prediction got hit with one seat in the East African Legislation Assembly (EALA) Members of Parliament (MP). The one I thought was a go was the Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) Fred Ebil. He didn’t get his seat and the UPC lost their seat in the EALA this period. Now, there is only National Resistance Movement (NRM) and the Democratic Party (DP) who has EALA MPs in the 5th Assembly.
Today, the NRM got their 6 candidates, which was anticipated. They got in addition two more “independent” candidates. So, in the numbers they got 8 out of 9. Jacqueline Amongin is a member of the NRM and a Pan African Parliament (PAP) Member too. So, she has represented Uganda on a NRM ticket already. Now she ran as an “independent” but everyone should know that she is associated and a member of the NRM.
The second “independent” Babirye Veronica Kadogo was the Woman Representative in the 10th Parliament for the NRM in Buyende District. She lost her re-election bid in the General Election in 2021. She ran as an “independent” but certainly is connected to the NRM as well. To think otherwise is naive at this point.
That’s why it’s only Gerald Siranda who is from another party, the DP. The DP who had this in their agreement with the NRM. The DP-NRM Agreement had this stipulation and Siranda takes over the seat after two terms for Mbidde. Therefore, the DP gets a seat and an EALA MP.
While we saw a boycott from the National Unity Platform (NUP). The Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) had a candidate that was bound to loose. Justice Forum (JEEMA) also lost, which was also scheduled to happen, as it is associated with the NUP. However, the shocker was that UPC lost their seat and didn’t get Ebil elected. Especially, since the NRM was supposed to back the UPC with this seat, but that was hallow.
The opposition didn’t really loose much. They had nothing to get to begin with. The NRM was bound for a pyrrhic victory, but today was just a painful exercise. The Speaker decided to have an early poll before the deliberations in the plenary session. This is creating the possibility for “pre-ticked ballots” and open rigging. Which is just foolish, because the NRM got the majority in the 11th Parliament and this would be a walkover.
The ones that should feel betrayed is the UPC. They are surely not valued and isn’t getting real support. That is the party which has made agreements with the NRM. Now, their dialogue and such isn’t considered. That is saying something. We can see that Mao and DP got their way. However, the UPC was kicked out by NRM leaning “independent’s”. Peace.
The ones expecting any sort of shocks or sudden changes in the East African Legislative Assembly Members of Parliament (MP) race will be in a dire loss. The EALA MP race which is already scheduled will most likely be a settled affair already.
It is the MPs that elects them and the majority will go to the National Resistance Movement (NRM). The NRM has already 6 candidates or Flag-Bearers and you should expect all of them to be settled in. The Democratic Party (DP) will get one MP as that was signed off in the DP-NRM agreement, which was signed of earlier in the year. That means 6 of the 9 slots is already taken. Further, the Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) should also get a candidate in for their loyalty and working relationship with NRM. That means 8 of the 9 MPs are already elected without much say. The last will be to a NRM leaning Independent and a “vetted” one like that. This is what you should expect and anything else would be weird at this point.
The NRM will have the majority and that is reflected in the NRM Caucus with their 6 Candidates. This is an easy pick and securing plum-jobs to former MPs and Ministers who has lost out. That’s why the EALA is a nice place for them to be put. When there is no parastatal or government entities to get appointed into. Therefore, the EALA is a well fitting place to do so.
The others are giving favourable and friendly parties of the Parliament a “shout-out” or “props” for their loyalty. They are getting a EALA MP slot and that’s why its easy to see the 6+2 or 8, which is al but missing 1 of the EALA MPs.
That Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) is fielding a flag-bearer is futile. The same can be said about whoever the National Unity Platform (NUP) would pick or have in this role. The Justice Forum (JEEMA) has also a flag-bearer, but that person will not go nowhere either. As the JEEMA has been an ally of the People Power and the NUP. So, with that in mind these parties candidates will go nowhere. There is no way that the majority of the Parliament will give them way. They are really wasting their time and only playing into the procedural games of the state. Yes, they have a right to have a flag-bearer or a EALA MP candidate, but it’s totally pointless. The opposition could have the best man or woman. They could have the incarnated saviour of the planet and all souls. That person still wouldn’t have a chance, because the NRM has decided and there is no turning back.
The FDC, NUP and JEEMA has no chance here. They should just give up. The DP and UPC will get the other spots. There is little chances for the independent candidates in this race, if any. Yes there is a talk of 15 MP candidates, but as long as you don’t have suction or pre-arranged agreements. These shouldn’t expect much. They are fillers on a paper or if even that…
The ones believing this will be free and fair elections. I hate to say it’s partly sealed already. The only last seat is what is unknown. While that one will most likely go to a NRM leaning Independent and someone in favour of the NRM without being on it’s ticket. That meaning all of the 9 of 9 EALA MPs.
The ones thinking the FDC, NUP or JEEMA has a shot at this… well, I cannot see it happening. It isn’t like the NRM or the ones in power has allowed that before. No, they rather see their own there and no one else. The only reason why UPC and DP has a chance, is because of their working arrangements with the NRM. That’s why they are getting favour and office. Not because of their representation or the will of the people. No, it’s because of ceremonial reasons between the NRM and their allies. There is nothing else too this. Peace.
“Politics is like monkeys’ dance, if you do not want the tail of monkeys to touch you, you don’t join their dance” – Fred Mukasa Mbidde
Who thought this would be race for the opposition to get golden tickets to the Star-ship and fly-away to moon? Who thought that the Movement would act like gentlemen and give what is proper to the opposition, than you haven’t followed class or known the Movement’s way of doing business. Surely it was all fixed at the State House, the result was pre-fixed and the time it took in Parliament was made to make the charade look like an open bazaar, when it was a closed session for the chosen few that the kingpin had decided.
The ones winning were these ones:
“Mukasa Fred Mbidde (DP),
Akol Rose Okulu (NRM),
Mathias Kasamba (NRM),
Mary Mugyenyi (NRM),
Paul Musamali Mwasa (NRM),
Dennis Namara (NRM),
George Steven Odongo (NRM),
Christopher Opoka Okumu (UPC),
Suzan Nakawuki (Independent)” (New Vision, 28.02.2017).
The official results and votes don’t really matter, the winners out of the 49 candidates, two who was from Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) and none of them was elected. Surely, the FDC didn’t trade or give ways to the Movement. Therefore, the sudden resignation of Fred Mukasa Mbidde as Deputy President of Democratic Party (DP) before the EALA elections and he was even parts of the NRM EALA Primary Elections at the State House. Nevertheless, the man who was parts of the party that Museveni once a point in the time wanted to destroy dearly together with the Uganda People’s Congress, he has given one candidate from each party.
So who is this Christopher Opoka Okumu, the Nebbi representative who apparently was good enough for NRM MPs to vote for a another term for the UPC candidate, who wants James Akena to run for President in the next election, though that would alter the paradigm agreement done with Museveni. That is how the UPC-NRM agreement and why the UPC got even cabinet members this go around. Therefore, Museveni offers the UPC another slot in the EALA as thanks.
Dennis Namara is the former NRM Youth Chairman and Presidential Advisor for Youth, George Steven Odongo the former Resident District Commissioner (RDC) of Lira, Rosa Akol Okulu, the fomer Minister for Internal Affairs, Mary Mugyenyi, the former MP for Nyabushozi County and former State Minister for Animal Husbandry, Mathias Kasamba, the former Kakuuto MP, who lost in the NRM Primary in 2015.
Susan Nakawuki is a former UPC member of EALA, but this time around she went as an Independent candidate this time around. Last time she was representing UPC and as MP for Busiro MP, who even wasn’t believed to be an MP because of her dress-code in 2009, also been in trouble with the law in 2011. So after the issues, she still had capacity to get elected for EALA in 2012. So now she soon starts her second term in EALA as part of the Ugandan Delegation.
So the opposition that isn’t really opposition is the ones that one a slot to the EALA, because the ones been in EALA delegation there, are not rocking the boat or using the title to pressure anything vicious in the East Africa Community (EAC). Therefore, that Mbidde who was part of the celebration of the movement in Masindi and even parts of the Primary in the State House, the other UPC candidates are already spoiled by the wealth of EALA, that they do not want to cut their pay-check and lose their livelihood.
The others are old-timers and former leaders who certainly have traded favours with the president, as some of these lost out at the NRM Primaries in 2015. We the knowledge of the pay-checks coming with the service at the EALA, the price of getting the offer and lose out on being a MP for the NRM. Must seem decent for the loyalist that Museveni can count on to continue his trench-hold on all most of the seats anyway!
Like Nabilah Naggay Sempala wrote on a secret meeting in Parliament:
“The meeting scheduled at Parliamentary building for 10am according to sources at the Government Chief Whip’s office, is to strike a deal with the leaning independent Members of Parliament to vote for all the 6 NRM candidates. The NRM would also in turn vote an independent candidate who is yet to be agreed” (…) “In politics nothing is done until it is done. We need any potential ally at this time to comfortably secure victories today,” a source from NRM said. The independent members are 66 accounting for 16 percent of the total members and bigger than the combined opposition members” (…) “NRM has 6 candidates in the race including former ministers Rose Akol and Mary Mugenyi, former Government Chief Whip’s office Policy Analyst Paul Musamali, former RDC George Innocent Odongo and former NRM National Youth boss Denis Namara” (Nabilah Naggay Sempala, 27.02.2017).
So with this in mind that these members we’re mention in regards, plus the amount of fixed movement MPs there wasn’t hard to see how this would go. As well, the ones that one today are proven to be former losers in the Primary, therefore the meetings that was at the State House was making sure the loyal MPs of the past would get a secured livelihood after their days in Parliament. However, there are now also Youth League leader, RDC and Political Analysts that are now paid with a heavy salary in Arusha. You can just know that there have been a trade-off and Museveni offered it for creating no issues during the campaign of 2016. That has been visible as the NRM stalwarts was offered plenty. Expect other NRM former MPs to be hired as Envoys or even Ambassadors to the UAE or any other place with a Mission.
Enough of the mellow yellow brown envelope fellow! Peace.
There are running battles between the shadows of the Movement and the Forum for Democratic Change has been going on for a while. This has happen as Secretary General Nathan Nandala-Mafabi wrote this in the EALA Nomination letter to the 10th Parliament wrote: “These clearly spell out the positions of the Ruling Party and the Official Opposition Party in the multiparty democracy. In regard to numerical strength. EAC Treaty is also clear on multiparty democracy”.
So now that the FDC is the official opposition party and not the winner of the General Election 2016, even though the rigging master Eng. Dr. Badru M. Kiggundu of the Electoral Commission and the deputy chief justice Stephen Kavuma had to ban the campaign of defiance, that was the Presidential Candidate Dr. Kizza Besigye who run hard against the ruling party and the ruling regime of President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni and his National Resistance Movement.
So with that in context, the months after has been smeared with irregularities and malfunctions as the NRM and their Police has targeted FDC with full force. This they did with detaining members and leaders without court order, house-arrests, blocking of the headquarters and all sorts of other injustices done with an ordinary fashion of contempt of the constitution and law. These have been done as the 10th Parliament was sworn-in and the President was busy having dignitaries from Turkey and South Korea.
Now that 2017 has arrived and ever since December 2016 the Independent Magazine editor and founder Andrew Mwenda has gone all wild on social media. At the same time TVO has disgraced him and his magazine. The graceful attempts have not been there as the words have addressed each other in fashions that would be in bars and not all in public. So Mwenda are using all tricks with his connections as he even seemingly has traded his popularity and his work ethic for goods from the ruling regime. Because he has gone from being a fierce critic of the Movement and now he defends them.
With this in mind Mwenda has attracted and attacked with more and more staunch words, even as he becoming a laughing stock and a wild-card. Even if he would have pieces of truth, the spin and the propaganda fashion of it all is spoiling facts that might be there. Just like Uganda Media Centre and Hon. Ofwono Opondo spills the beans and defends the Movement with all means. Though his entitled way of sounding more like a NRM Spokesperson than a man who is government spokesperson is showing the transgression of the party itself; just like the NRM inner party election for the EALA done over two days there.
This is still not an issue in nation of Uganda and under the rule President Museveni, which want to be legitimate by every mean possible. Therefore he uses the media and false stories on NTV Uganda where the Party Constitution of FDC is in question. As NTV Uganda wrote yesterday:
“A plan to amend the constitution of Uganda’s main opposition party, the Forum for Democratic Change could cause a huge rift among its members if it goes through. The plan is to change clauses in the constitution to allow former FDC leaders another go at the helm of the party. According to the movers, many of FDC’s past leaders have been rendered useless to the party and yet they still have a lot to offer.” (NTV Uganda, 08.02.2017). However, as the story unfolded the FDC leadership debunked the story, Besigye said he would never run as a candidate under that or heard about it. TVO came out saying it was Mwenda who was the source and Hon. Francis Mwijukye wrote this about the farce:
“ Am told that there was a confusing story on NTV last evening about ammending the FDC constitution. Will be hosted on NTV Uganda 8.00 to 8.30am today morning. Let me go and make it clear. I think I was misquoted” (…) ”We were asked about the future of former FDC leaders and party founders. All I said was that I would support an inclusion in the party constitution of a party organ to deal with a council of Elders whose sole role would be to advise where necessary and for institutional memory. There was nothing like allowing former leaders to compete for top FDC positions in the party asked to me. Otherwise I can’t support that amendment” (Mwijukye, 08.02.2017).
When the higher echelons from the FDC are addressing the matter nearly simultaneously with the clip of the story aired, there are clear indications of malpractices in the standard. The NTV surely did this for political purposes. Just as there we’re reports that NTVs Sheila Nduhukire did directly celebrate with the NRM Party when they had done their EALA Primary Elections at the State House. Certainly the media and media houses are getting to close to the ruling regime.
We can just expect that government fuel illegitimate stories in their portrayal to demoralize and legitimize their own existence in power. Because they cannot do it by their own merit anymore, that gravy train left the station long time ago. They will use all means to establish and make the blatant ignorance of Mwenda and use their connections in NTV Uganda to portray the FDC as wolfs or even better wolf in sheep’s clothing.
The NRM and the Movement cannot sell the truth at this point, because that will undress their own existence and their own established fanfare of just cause. The probable cause that has left long time ago, the decades of bribes, thieving and misgivings has now caught up with them. The rigging and ill-forced ways are now what entitles people and therefore EALA elections are ugly instead of silent shows of democratic balloting. The NRM has to use the media and spin to make their biggest threat FDC into a shambolic affair of political charade. Since they have the ability themselves to make itself look unwise.
So the spins and the lies of deception will continue to fluster from the NRM and their media hawks, but still the truth will shine in the end. Peace.
“Banyenzaki after quitting race: “The whole system is a fraud and stage managed. I can’t submit myself to such kind of election” (NBS TV Uganda, 08.02.2017).
The National Resistance Movement had to postpone the activity for another day at the Parliament, as the NRM could not with amended rules and with problematic ballot papers as it ended in suspended election yesterday, which even got the NRM MPs mad at NRM Electoral Commission chairman Dr. Tanga Odoi. Surely, they didn’t want a second day of embarrassment at the State House of Entebbe. The famous Okello house that President Museveni himself lingers in.
The people who dropped out yesterday, went back into the fold, while some dropped out today instead, therefore the EC surely had enough work on before the ballots could be signed and delivered to be counted today as well.
The one winning was Paul Musamali was a beaten NRM MP who lost his place in Parliament before the 10th Parliament. Rose Akol, the Bukedea MP lost also her place in the Parliament before this term. Former State Minister for Agriculture Mary Mugyenyi also we’re elected. Resident District Commissioner of Lira, George Odongo was elected today. Dennis Namara is a former Chairperson NRM Youth League. The Rakai District and MP for Kakuuto County Mathias Kasamba was the last elected person from the NRM.
We can see that Democratic Party Hon. Florence Nakiwala Kiyingi and Vice-Chairman Fred Mukasa Mbidde, who was supposed to run on NRM Ticket in the EALA nominations and candidates to the Parliament. Therefore the DP Party are not getting representation through the ruling party and their ticket. Hon. Kiyingi must feel awkward as her run for candidacy didn’t go through.
What this looks like is like there we’re talks at the State House after the General Election in 2016, as there must surely some of these former MPs and State Minister’s has made deals, as they didn’t run on Independent ticket for a Parliamentary Flag-Bearer in the county and district. This happen in the December 2015 when, surely behind closed doors in the State House and together with President Museveni to make sure they didn’t go independent or even trying to run against the NRM new MPs. With this in mind, we can question if this happen today with all the history in the room and the ones elected for the EALA candidacy in the NRM. There is only one who is a current MP and that is Mathias Kasamba, the rest is has-beens who get a good job in Tanzania.
That is enough NRM for today! Peace.