Opinion: President Museveni said “I am tired” and want to indirectly reinstate the Movement System!

It is just one of these days when the President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni reveals that he wasn’t in favor of the Multi-Party Democracy, even if he claims to be elected and have credible elections abroad. It is always his vision and his perspective that matters, the others should just follow and listen to the high and mighty Musveni. No-one else has a vision like him and his party, which bow their knees, gets Presidential Handshakes and also kisses ring when they have too. That is something the Opposition MP’s doesn’t do, except for the “Good DPs” and the level-headed UPC MP’s. Still, he has something obvious to say today!

President Museveni addressing Bulago Primary School in Buyengo Sub-County in Jinja District:

I am tired of wars. I want you to vote for pro-NRM members of parliament like our party flag-bearer, Mr Moses Walyomu.” (…) “I don’t want to go back to the bush to fight again. Don’t send me people who will disagree with me in parliament. I fought in 1986 and I am tired.” (…) “He said people who are not of his party fear to discuss with him matters that are pertinent to the development of the country. And for that to be avoided, he will need Members of Parliament who share his ideals and vision for the country” (…) “He threatened that should Kagoma voters vote for an opposition candidate, their wish for good roads and other crucial utilities such as power will be no more”(Kirunda, Nakato & Katabulawo, 2017)

He is clear, if you disagree, that means war, not negotiations or discussions to find a level middle-ground. Since it is only one-man with a vision in Uganda, and that is the President. The Wonderful Dictator who is on his 7th Term, not 5th, even if he is rigged in 5 times in row. There was still a decade that gets shaved off in the calculation. I will write that until my ending. Since he deserves to count all years from 1986 and not only from 1995. While we are on that. Under President Museveni, there wasn’t always Multi-Party Democracy.

Three years after the Coup d’etat:

As already noted, the 1989 elections were held under strict anti-party rules since the NRM government had suspended all political party activities. Indeed, the Resistance Councils and Committees Elections Regulations, 1989, forbade all use of party symbols, sectarian appeals, and threats of force, the offer of food or drinks and the display of candidates’ posters. The absence of open campaigning made it impossible to discuss policies” (Bwana, 2009).

So as President Museveni forbade other parties and their political parties after taking power. He created together with the NRM/A a Movement System to control the local party politics and have structures that he could have oversight of from the State House. This was not a Multi-Party System. A special system that are now overturned into the Local Government system, still it is inherited by the RC system, that the party unleashed in the end of 1980s and tried for a long while. Explained by this Scottish student in 1993!

Importance of Movement System:

Two statutes, the Resistance Councils and Committees Statutes 9 (1987) and the Resistance Committees’ Judicial Power Statute 1 (1988), codified and expanded the system of local Resistance Committees that had sustained the NRA in its war against the second Obote regime. The genesis of the Resistance Committee system can be traced to the Mayumba Kumi (or ‘Ten Houses’) experiment of the UNLF in the early 1980s, which in turn was linked with the Tanzanian Ujamaa philosophy (Oloka-Onyango, 1989; Baringo, n.d.).” (…) “The RC statutes divided each of Uganda’s 34 (now 38) districts into 5 administrative zones; village (or ward in towns and cities), parish, sub-county, county and districts” (…) “The extent to which the RC system offers the levels of popular participation claimed by the NRM/A also requires consideration. The RC Electoral system operated in 1987, 1989 and 1992 of direct elections only at RC1 level means that the population is excluded at every stage from choosing candidates for higher office. This limitation on direct popular participation in the RC system recurs at a higher level where the links between RC4/RC5 and the NRC and government ministries become rather uncertain. By 1992, there existed no power of recall for members of the NRC beyond elections day itself” (Smith, 1993).

With all this in mind, the tiredness of having opposition. It seems that the President is ready to control the Parliament, the Local Government and have only local cadres that are his. The ones that he knows he can bribe and have under his structure. That means he wants to back to late 1980s and early 1990s when the Movement System and Resistance Councils were the thing. Where the Ministry of Local Government could fire a Resistance Councilor or others, if they didn’t follow the direct orders of the President and his State House. This seems real now.

This seems like the thing, as he wants to take away development and public service if they doesn’t follow his orders in the By-Election in the Jinja District. That proves the lack of democratic values and wish to honor the ballot. But hey, he has for 30 years rigged himself in and made sure his cadres has gotten positions, why else would Gen. Kahinda Otafiire still be a Minister? Not because of his brilliant intellect, but for his loyal assets and following orders of the President.

That President Museveni wants to have men and woman who listens to him and doesn’t challenge him. Therefore, he is telling in Jinja District, that he didn’t go to war in 1986 to have people questioning his rule. His legacy now will not be that he re-released the Multi-Party System, neither that he Constitution delivered a fresh start, as his lingering time in power. Proves that he has gone backwards and become alike the men he overthrew. There isn’t anything different between Dr. Milton Obote distrust in Institutions and Political Affiliations, the only difference is the names and the times. The misuse of army and police to harass the opposition is not different either. The use of government resource in elections are also facilitated for the Movement to counter the opposition. Therefore, the wonderful dictator is alike predecessors, only difference is his ability to overstay!

President Museveni is tired, because he cannot understand that people still question him. That people still doesn’t believe in his vision. That is because he forgot to deliver, he didn’t care to deliver and wanted all along to control it all from the Okello House. There wasn’t with prompt and glory that the Multi-Party Democracy became law, it was two elections and amendment of the constitution that the President didn’t want to deliver. President Museveni wanted it all inside the Movement and the Resistance Councils, which he could assess and control. So now he had to allow other people create their own parties, where they have their own guidelines and programs, not his! They doesn’t have his vision. That is so tiring for him. Therefore, he now want to return back in time, to the Movement System and the Resistance Councils.

He wants total control and he says it, because he is tired of men and woman who doesn’t accept his vision. The vision of looting, dismantling and disorienting the citizens for the wealth of the Museveni family. The rest is history, as the value of currency, the added state debt, the lacking of transparency and patronage is extensive. Therefore, he doesn’t want it question of his state and his system. It is all what he created and made over the decades as the supreme executive. Certainly, the glory days and the days of hope is gone. Just like the days stalwart Besigye would help the old-man creating the Resistance Councils as well. Peace.

Reference:

Bwana, Charles – ‘Voting Patterns in Uganda’s Elections: Could it be the end of the National Resistance Movement’s (NRM) domination in Uganda’s politics?’ (2009) – LES CAHIERS D’AFRIQUE DE L’ N° 41

Kirunda, Abubaker; Nakato, Tausi & Katabulawo, Andrew – ‘I don’t want opposition in parliament, says President Museveni’ (09.05.2017) link: http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/I-don-t-want-opposition-in-parliament–says-President-Museveni/688334-3919496-71atniz/index.html

Smith, Justin McKenzi – ‘Breaking with the Past – A Consideration of Yoweri Kaguta Museveni’s National Resistance Movement, and of social and Political action in Uganda during its government’ (1993) University of Edinburgh, Scotland, United Kingdom.

Association of Uganda Tour Operators Ltd: Sudden Increment in Rwanda Gorilla Permit Fees (08.05.2017)

Burundi: Décret 100/85 du 5 mai 2017 portant nomination des Membres du Conseil National de la Communication (05.05.2017)

Kagoma County By-Election: FDC Surge the crowds, while the NRM believes in Voter Tourism!

There is a by-election going on in Kagoma County in Jinja District. This is in Busoga region and inside the Busoga Kingdom. In the recent days there been campaign rallies in the towns and villages of the county. As the candidates together with the leadership of the parties has arrived to spell their program and get their candidate into the 10th Parliament.

That the President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni together with the NRM has held rallies in the district isn’t surprising, neither is it that today only he has hold 4 rallies in the county. What is more common is the proof of bribery and in general using intimidation as well. Therefore, the reports that the NRM used violence against FDC mobilizers. On the 5th May the pictures of innocent party organizers bloody t-shirts we’re spread on the internet. Therefore, the proof that the NRM cannot win without violence or use money, is yet another proof.

Another typical trick of the NRM, has been how the buses has been driving around in the county and district, giving away t-shirts, offering 10k shillings and food; if they participate to the closest rally of President Museveni and his coming Candidate Moses Walyomu Muwanika. This one is supposed to stop the Forum for Democratic of Change (FDC) candidate Timothy Batuwa. Instead of like the FDC who gather natural crowds with their leadership and convoys.

The NRM uses buses and payments, giving away T-shirts, beating up Independent Candidates supporters, which happen earlier this week. There are certainly double standard in this, as the NRM uses intimidation, harassment, than condemning violence, later knowingly paying for supporters and getting support by bribery. Than, sending buses (Voter Tourism) and picking up crowds, while the other parties scraps people together honest. Therefore, the ruling regime and ruling party uses all tricks of the trade. To get the MP for the area elected again! Certainly, the NRM has no honor, only cheating and rigging to win.

If there will be pre-ticked ballots on the 11th May 2017 and sudden ballots taken away with Police Officers during the tally wouldn’t surprise anyone. Also, that the late release of the Declaration Forms and the Return Forms, which the NRM will comprise as they have already started to do. That with the bribery of citizens and the ways the buses rides to pick-up and give food. This is all manipulation and selling the ballots for scraps. Certainly, the electoral process isn’t respected when the NRM trades the ballot for 10k shillings and rallies to elect their man. Peace.

UNMISS Deploys Peacekeepers to Aburoc to Enable Delivery of Humanitarian Aid (08.05.2017)

Currently up to 50,000 people are sheltering in and around the town of Aburoc on the west bank of the River Nile after a series of clashes between Government and Opposition forces.

JUBA, South Sudan, May 8, 2017 – Peacekeeping troops have been urgently deployed to Aburoc in the Upper Nile region by the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) to help enable the delivery of much needed humanitarian assistance.

“The aim is to provide humanitarian groups with the confidence they need to resume the provision of urgent assistance to tens of thousands of people in Aburoc who are fleeing the ongoing violence,” said the Head of UNMISS, David Shearer.

“This short-term deployment is in response to an immediate need and will provide a light, but robust, temporary peacekeeping footprint in the area.”

Currently up to 50,000 people are sheltering in and around the town of Aburoc on the west bank of the River Nile after a series of clashes between Government and Opposition forces. The most urgent humanitarian need is to provide drinking water.

“Without a secure supply of clean water, there is a risk of an outbreak of diarrhoea or even cholera which has the potential to kill thousands of vulnerable people. It is vital that our humanitarian partners are able to get this water and other aid through to alleviate the suffering,” said David Shearer.

“I also note that the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) has acknowledged UNMISS’ intention to help facilitate the provision of humanitarian assistance to the people of the Upper Nile.”

The peacekeeping troops’ immediate task will be to secure the base from where humanitarians are providing water and other assistance. The road between Kodok and Aburoc will be checked for old landmines by the UN Mine Action Service and cleared as necessary. Protection may also be provided for water trucks using the road if that is required to enable people to move freely.

Security Council Condemns Attack Against UNMISS (08.05.2017)

The members of the Security Council further condemned the continued violence committed by all parties in South Sudan.

NEW YORK, United States of America, May 8, 2017 –  The members of the Security Council strongly condemned the attack against the United Nations Mission in the Republic of South Sudan (UNMISS) on 3 May in Leer, South Sudan. The members of the Security Council expressed appreciation for the actions taken by UNMISS peacekeepers to repel the attack.

The members of the Security Council recalled that individuals who, directly or indirectly, engage in attacks against United Nations missions, international security presence, or other peacekeeping operations, or humanitarian personnel, may be designated for targeted sanctions.

The members of the Security Council further condemned the continued violence committed by all parties in South Sudan, including the ongoing military offensives, and called on all parties to immediately adhere to the permanent ceasefire as called for in the Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan and to remove all obstacles to delivery of lifesaving humanitarian assistance.

South Sudan: J. Canon Clement Janda – “Withdrawal from Membership of National Dialogue” (03.05.2017)

South Sudan: Progressive Democrats – “Appointment of Muslim Gore as Secretary of Information” (04.05.2017)

In the Teso Region they are eating termites to survive the famine!

There are something deeply wrong, so sincerely wrong when the citizens doesn’t get needed food relief and have to eat termites and insects to survive. This is the state of the famine now in Teso Region, in Katakwi, Amuria, Bukedea and Kaberamaido district.

Mr Robert Okitoi, the Amuria District council chairperson, said “The situation is bad, people are now eating termites. I think the government should just declare a state of emergency for the regions of Teso, Karamoja and Lango.” (NTV Uganda, 01.06.2017). On the 26th April 2017 the Parliament has passed a motion to declare ‘State of Emergency’ in Uganda, but the President and the State House has not done anything about it.

Still, a local farmer wrote a piece to the Chimp Reports that has some valuable assessments:

The current hunger in Teso has largely been attributed to drought, while this assertion may hold some truths; there is increasingly evidence that the Ministry of Teso Affairs has not done its part. Hunger in Teso is as a result of both internal and external factors. For many years, the region has been experiencing declining productivity and this was recently worsened by drought. For districts like Ngora, Bukedia and Kumi, land fragmentation has heavily affected productivity” (…) “Clearly besides drought, Teso food systems are in a crisis and our expectation was that the Ministry of Teso affairs working with other stakeholders would work to address this problem. Our view is that hunger should be among the ‘affairs’ that Ministry of Teso Affairs should be engaged in.Agriculture remains a major livelihood for our people in Teso and therefore we require urgent response from Ministry of Teso Affairs on its plans to help our people get out of the current hunger crisis”(Akorikin, 2017).

This here proves that the drought is just the last piece of the straw in a bigger problem, that even the State Ministry has not been in-charge and had the oversight of the Teso Region. There are lacking the support they need. Still, the government still have done something now and then. Like this one relief to Kaberamaido district: “Kaberamaido district has finally received 12, 000 kilograms of relief food from government valued at Shillings 33 million. Kaberamaido is among the districts battling a severe food crisis resulting from crop failure due to prolonged drought. The most affected areas in the district are Ochero, Bululu, Kobulubulu, Kaberamaido, and Apapai sub counties. With over 5,000 households facing starvation representing about half of the total population in the district, the 12,000 kilograms of flour delivered is far from solving the food crisis” (Odongo, 2017). That means on the 30th April 2017, the government delivered 12.000kgs of flour that is estimated to be 231,000 citizens in the district alone. Therefore, you don’t have to be rocket scientist to know that this food relief to the one district isn’t enough…

The minister for Relief and Disaster Preparedness, Hilary Onek, has offered a bit of advice to the hunger-stricken; stop selling the little food you have left. Onek said the weather has become so unreliable for Ugandans to hold on to the little hope for better yields. “They should consider family needs first before selling all the food. Districts like Lira had a lot of food but it [food] was sold to traders from Kenya, South Sudan and even Rwanda because people want money,” he said in an interview. Asked whether government would consider banning the sale of food to outsiders, Onek said they wouldn’t, in the spirit of the East African Community. “That is not an option we will consider; we only want people to behave responsibly to take care of their family needs before they sell all the food,” he said” (UMDF, 2017).

So now the Minister Onek gives advice to the impoverished citizens, so that they are careful with their food stocks, as the relief of the districts are not up-to par. Therefore, that they didn’t stock the extra foods and now they tell the families to take of it. The government could have used their resources and built food-stocks, instead of living hand to mouth. The small-time farmers in the Teso-Region certainly, needs more than fear of selling what they don’t have, they need support and food relief.

The state also has to facilitate the farmers, not in Operation Wealth Creation or Jerry-Can irrigation, but real projects, storage of food-stocks and recreate farmers Co-Ops in the districts and sub-counties to collectively earn and work together to get better yields and also productivity in general. But that isn’t a scheme and way the National Resistance Movement can corrupt or thieve the funds from. Therefore, that will not happen and is the reason why the similar institutions are gone during the decades of President Museveni.

The Teso Region and these district needs help, the man-made famine together with the drought that has worsen it. So the Government has to charge and actually make a difference, not just thieve monies away from Kampala. Peace.

Reference:

Akorikin, Francis – ‘OPINION: Government Should Review the Relevance of Ministry of Teso Affairs’ (05.05.2017) link: https://www.chimpreports.com/opinion-government-should-review-the-relevance-of-ministry-of-teso-affairs/

Odongo, Ronald – ‘Kaberamaido Receives 12,000 KGs of Food Relief’ (30.04.2017) link: https://ugandaradionetwork.com/story/govt-delivers-12000-kilograms-of-posho-worth-ugx-33m-to-famine-hit-residents

Uganda Media Development Foundation (UMDF) – ‘HILARY ONEK TO HUNGER VICTIMS: DON’T SELL FOOD’ (01.05.2017) link: https://www.umdf.or.ug/?q=content/hilary-onek-hunger-victims-don%E2%80%99t-sell-food

Ugandan economy could get Oil-Shocks due to external factors, recent BoU report claims!

Surprise, surprise the Bank of Uganda (BoU) has made a working paper on the possible consequences of the oil price, the oil exports and the oil imports on the Ugandan economy. This didn’t exceed my expectation of a report or paper, but said enough to clearly anticipate changes in the economy with the coming export. Even as the BoU called the domestic oil production in embryonic stages, which means the real impact will come when it is closer petroleum production the GDP and CPI feel more impact of the oil prices and the volumes exported from the Lake Albert Basin.

That the Ugandan State and the Republic of Uganda, should know that the fresh foreign exchange and currency into the economy, as the domestic parts of petroleum is not having big impact on the economy! Still, the export can change it as the oil prices and change the consumer price index for instance. Take a look!

One such shock that is a source of major concern and risks to monetary policy-making in Uganda is the oil shock. To our knowledge, the effects of oil shocks in Uganda, to date, have not yet been analyzed. The objective of this paper therefore, is to analyze the nature and importance of oil shocks to Uganda’s economy in a dynamic framework” (Nyanzi & Bwire, P: 4, 2017).

According to the Uganda’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development (2012), oil provides about 10 percent of Uganda’s energy requirements – the rest is sourced from the small and underdeveloped and unreliable electricity sub-sector and the cheap biomass energy. The oil sector was also deregulated in 1994, under the broad structural reforms implemented by the Government of Uganda, which effectively eliminated oil prices subsidies. Uganda is endowed with commercially-viable oil reserves, but domestic oil production is in embryonic stages. Consequently, all of the oil-energy needs of the country are satisfied by imports” (Nyanzi & Bwire, P: 8, 2017).

The results of the variance decomposition in regard to oil shock are not entirely unexpected, given the structure of Uganda’s economy. Oil and its products constitute 8 percent of total intermediate consumption and 10 percent of energy requirements. In addition, oil is crucial to electricity supply in Uganda because hydro-electricity is unreliable and insufficient. This implies little or no substitutability of oil with hydro-electric energy in production in case of adverse oil shock, which could justify the long-run 20 percent variance in output due to oil shocks. Regarding consumer prices, the small percentage of variance in consumer prices due to oil shocks is justified by the small weight of oil in the CPI basket. Oil constitutes about 1 percent in the 2009/10 rebased CPI basket, of which 0.8 percent is oil for personal transportation and 0.2 percent a source of liquefied energy at home. These numbers are not surprising given that over 75 percent of the population live in rural areas and depend mainly on wood and charcoal as a source of energy, and that rates of car ownership are generally low. Moreover, the main source of short-run volatility in the Uganda CPI is weather-related factors affecting food prices. This leaves the bulk of fluctuations in the core consumer prices (Comprising over 80 percent) explained by demand” (Nyanzi & Bwire, P: 18, 2017).

Oil shocks are transmitted through the supply channel, as a shock that increases the international price of oil leads to opposite movements in real output and consumer prices in Uganda” (Nyanzi & Bwire, P: 19, 2017).

It is hard to say how it could impact and how the petroleum production and exports will change the economy, how the prices and the inflation, as the measure of how much the price of the crude-oil will be at the given time. That the government has secret agreements with oil companies and also agreements with other to build the crude-oil pipeline that goes to Tanzania. Therefore, the reaction in the economy is not yet known, but with the background and knowledge of the how it is now. Most likely a real output and change in consumer prices in Uganda.

That will be an oil-shock no-one can be prepared for. Unless the Government and Parliament created legislation and policies who might soften the change of the economy. Therefore, with this in mind, the National Resistance Movement, the State House and the President Museveni have work to do. That is if they consider the implication the petroleum production and exports will have on inflation, currency value and consumer prices index as well. This report should open some eyes into it, but it should not be surprising. Peace.

Reference:

Nyanzi, Sulaiman & Bwire, Thomas – ‘Working Paper No. 04/2017 – The Macroeconomic responses to Petro Shocks for Uganda’ (May, 2017)