Opinion: Now that the World Bank has new priorities, they will most likely not loan to the pipelines in East Africa!

 

There is certain movements that will strike as more expensive for the East African Community (EAC). This being for the Government of Uganda (GoU) and the Government of Kenya (GoK), who has big plans of petroleum pipelines from their oil-fields and to the coast. That being from Turkana to Lamu Port. While the Ugandan oil goes from Hoima to Tanga Port in Tanzania. Both development and industrial projects will have issues with the funding. The World Bank has supported massive infrastructure projects in both countries.

Therefore, for the two counties big development and oil industry, this is giant set-back, since they have to find funding and loans for the pipelines on the open market. Even with higher interests and making the profits of it lesser, than it would have been with a World Bank loan. It would not hurt the pocket as much as it does on the open market. The banks wants more profits themselves and also make sure they are paid-in-full.

With all this in mind. There are speculations, but first. Parts of the self-answering service. Before we look at the reactions in Kenya and Uganda. All of are important, as the state is involved in the licensing and building the pipelines. They are directly into the development and procurement of the pipelines. That is why this is big blow for the administrations and their possible tax-profits on it.

Word Bank Q&A:

Q. How is “upstream” oil and gas defined?

Upstream is an industry term that refers to exploration of oil and natural gas fields, as well as drilling and operating wells to produce oil and natural gas” (World Bank, 2017).

Current projects in our portfolio would continue as planned. However, no new investments in upstream oil and gas would be undertaken after 2019, unless under exceptional circumstances as noted in the decision” (World Bank, 2017).

Kenya Pipeline:

The announcement by the bank, which has significant interests in Kenya’s oil prospecting sector, does not bode well for the country’s anticipated entry into the club of oil producing nations beginning next year. Analysts said they do not expect an immediate reaction to the announcement even as they acknowledged that it takes the shine from oil in the long term” (…) “Locally, the World Bank is offering technical support to the Kenyan government, through the Kenya Petroleum Technical Assistance Project, to prime all stakeholders for commercial oil production and sale. The six-year programme is scheduled to run until February 2021 and involves the World Bank managing a Sh5.2 billion fund set up by investors from Germany, Norway and Britain. The World Bank’s private lending arm, International Finance Corporation, is however directly involved in Kenya’s oil fields, having a 6.83 per cent stake in Africa Oil, the Canadian exploration firm with interests in northern Kenya oil blocks” (Mutegi, 2017)

Uganda Pipeline:

The pipeline, is expected to be completed by the year 2020, when the country is scheduled to start oil production. In fact, Uganda’s President, Yoweri Museveni and his Tanzanian counterpart recently commissioned the construction of the East African Crude Oil Pipeline. The two leaders laid mark stones for the crude oil pipeline in Mutukula, Kyotera district and Kabaale in Hoima district. Total E&P Uganda, a subsidiary of French oil giant, Total S.A, is spearheading the construction of the crude oil pipeline on behalf of the joint venture partners. Adewale Fayemi, the general manager, Total E&P Uganda says discussions are ongoing to discuss on the formalities of how the pipeline will be run. Already, an agreement has been reached that the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) will be run and managed by a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) – private pipeline company. This means that a private company will be incorporated with joint venture partners – Tullow Uganda, Cnooc Uganda Ltd and Total E&P Uganda, and the governments of Uganda and Tanzania as shareholders in the company” (Ssekika, 2017)

Certainly, this will put a strain on the projects. They have to deliver another type of arrangement to make sure they get funding and have the funds to pay the added interests the banks wants. The added points on the dollar and the interest-rates will hit state-owned firms and the state itself. Since the pipelines most likely becomes more expensive and will be less profitable.

That the World Bank is pulling out of these projects is all within line of the Paris Accord, as they have professed is the reason. Still, this will make these projects more expensive and make sure they are earning less on it. Unless, the crude-oil prices are going up to a level that makes these investments even more profitable. That is only for time to tell. Since it is costly projects and also sophisticated to build. There is needed lots of expertise combined state planning to achieve the development plans.

This is just the beginning, but the pipelines and these investments are vital for both Kenya and Uganda. As the governments are already borrowing state funds on the possible earnings from the oil reserves in their basins. Therefore, they need to drill and need the petrodollar as quickly as possible. Peace.

Reference:

Mutegi, Mugambi – ‘World Bank dims Turkana oil hopes’ (14.12.2017) link: http://www.nation.co.ke/business/World-Bank-dims-Turkana-oil-hopes/996-4227848-u02v8n/index.html

Ssekika, Edward – ‘East African Crude Oil Pipeline: The Inside Story’ (11.12.2017) link: http://www.oilinuganda.org/features/economy/east-african-crude-oil-pipeline-the-inside-story-details-emerge-of-how-the-crude-oil-pipeline-will-be-financed-managed.html

World Bank – ‘Q&A: The World Bank Group and Upstream Oil and Gas’ (12.12.2017) link: http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/climatechange/brief/qa-the-world-bank-group-and-upstream-oil-and-gas

Age Limit: A Brief look into the Legal and Parliamentary Affairs Report on the Age Limit!

Today, was the day that the 10th Parliament, the Committee of Legal and Parliamentary Affairs majority report was leaked. As Speaker Rebecca Kadaga yesterday gave the public knowledge that the Constitutional Amendment will be up for second reading after the Committee is done on the 18th December 2017. The bill of Igara West Raphael Magyezi private bill got passed through the first voting and ended under scrutiny by the Committee. Even though this report make it just look benign and dumb. The questions for the reason for this isn’t because of discrimination or any other sort. That is just political ploy by the President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni. Who has a record of changing laws when he needs them too. If it is the constitution or another bill. It will be amended and changed when he needs it. The same reason for why the Article 102 (b) suddenly has to lifted and changed with an artificial provision.

The Committee is trying their best to legitimize it, but it doesn’t take away the purpose and their reasons for their recommendations. I am not surprised, this was expected by the Committee, it is fitting the paradigm of National Resistance Movement (NRM) under the rule of Museveni. They are trying to find special ways of fitting his narrative to his life. Without implicating himself to much. So it seems like it fits something else, while in the end its him who benefits. If it would go wrong, someone else has to fall on their sword. If someone get more ambition than Museveni, they are sacked or called rebels within the NRM. Therefore, expect the quotes I have taken to be in this regard. I have not taken from the ones questioning the lifting, because we all know the reason why to keep it. The Republic was made to serve and be there for Museveni, but he has taken it hostage. The NRM are just accepting it, because they are eating of his plate, the little breadcrumbs he is serving now and then. Therefore, this report is reflecting this. Take a look!

Article 102 (b) threatens democracy since Article 1 of the Constitution grants people of Uganda the right to determine who leads them and how they are ruled. Therefore restricting their choice on account of age would deny them the opportunity to fully exercise their freedom to decide who leads them” (…) “that Article 102 (b) is discriminatory against the youth and aged and is contrary to article 2l which guarantees equality of all people before the law” (…) “The youth and aged also want to participate in decision making process in the country. Having a lower and upper age limit would limit the participation of the youth and the aged in the country’s leadership” (…) “That age doesn’t translate into capacity since the youth and aged persons were able to serve efficiently in the office of President” (…) “that since life expectancy has increased from the time this Article was proposed and considering that more Ugandans are living longer, the population of the youth and aged persons, which are increasing every year, are productive and must be utilised” (…) “There is no empirical evidence to prove the assertion that persons below 35 years and above 75 years are not biologically endowed for leadership” (Parliament of Uganda, P: 60, 2017).

I wonder how it suddenly became a threat in 2017, when it took 22 years before it became an issue and a problem that the whole republic had to consider. If it had been a threat, wouldn’t the Committees and the working groups in the years before 1995 edited it out or at least changed the text to make it without reason? Or was the group members so drunk on the personality cult, that they was worshiping the words of Museveni back-then?

I wonder, if the Members of Parliament, meant it with sincerity that age doesn’t translate into leadership. So an infant and boy-scout is ready to become an MP too? Is a 100 year old struggling to walk and talk, good enough with a sound mind to run a republic? Age is complex in the sense, that no individual is the same. That people age differently and become mature differently, as also people aging in various aspects and get defects with time. Their all natural causes to live and to breathe. We all get deceases and has issues during our lives, that creates fatigue. Which effects our minds and our body ability to reflect on our surroundings. That is why we wants leaders with all senses and a clear mind. To be able to govern and steer a hectic ship as a Republic is. It shouldn’t be someone with an advanced age, as they can be taken advantage off and used by spouse or by doctors. This has been in the past also not to long ago with a certain Grace and her husband Robert Mugabe. If Janet tries to pull off the same, maybe then the army might attack Museveni too and put him under house arrest. Well, that is just speculation. Still, the thought of an advanced aged President is a frightened perspective, as it will weaken the persons ability to govern with full force and vigor.

The Committee further believes that whereas Article 102 (b) is not discriminatory, it marginalizes against the aged and the youth. The Committee notes that Article 102 (b) marginalizes against the youth and the elderly by limiting their opportunities especially as far as offering their candidature for the highest office is concerned. The Committee observed that Article 32 of the Constitution obligates the state to take affirmative action in favour of the marginalized groups to which the youth and elderly belong. The Committee believes that removing the age restrictions in Article 102 (b) is one way of streamline the provision for purpose of redressing the imbalance therein against persons below the age of 35 and those above the age of 75” (Parliament of Uganda, P: 62, 2017).

It is hard to believe that this will help the ones that under 35 years, when it is amended just because of the age of Museveni. It will not change anything and any imbalance, unless suddenly the laws change so much that more people can afford to run campaigns and there is actually a democratic playing field for all candidates. Which it is not at the moment. This is a mute argument to use the youth, because they are marginalized and blocked by this law. No one said some experience isn’t helpful when running for office and actually know something about politics before you run.

RECOMMENDATION

The committee recommends that-

(1) The age prescribed in Article 102 be reduced from 35 years to 18 years and for the upper age restriction to be removed” (…) “(2) Article 102 is redrafted to specifically prescribe the qualifications for a person to stand for president. These should including him or her being-” (…) “(a) a citizen of Uganda ; (b) a registered voter; (c) a resident in Uganda at the time of submission of his or her

and / (c) having completed a minimum formal education of Advanced standard or its equivalent” (Parliament of Uganda, P: 63-64, 2017).

They are really using the Youth for all its worth, even though it is to give Museveni a life presidency. They are not putting that in print. But that is the initial results of the change of the law. That is why the text are not saying any age, neither way, but they are using the youth because it is easier to fit. Than using advanced age. Since we all know it ridiculous!

The Committee observed that whereas many reasons were advanced for limits, one of the most prominent reasons was the existence of Article 102 (b), which persons above the age of 75 from being eligible for election as president. The reasoning at the time was that Article 102 was a deterrent measure against an incumbent seeking unlimited term as president and was sufficient to deter such a person. The Committee therefore notes that removing the age restrictions in Article 102 will remove the last remaining measure against the indefinite seeking of the office of President” (Parliament of Uganda, P: 91, 2017).

So they are blaming Dr. Milton Obote his predecessor for the reason, but ironically when he is gone. The provision isn’t needed. Obote is the problem, but not Museveni who apparently is still there. Just to bring some short words of Wisdom from Professor Oloka in 2006, it said this:

Your attitude to the kisanja saga relates to a larger problem, which goes to the essence of the problem of democracy in this country. Constitutionalism is about accepting the rules of the game as written and agreed upon, whether those rules favour you, or not. If the goalposts are changed whenever the tide goes against those in power then we have simply returned to the stage when Apollo Milton Obote abrogated the 1966 Constitution, rather than face the possibility of losing his job as Prime Minister. The 2005 amendments to the 1995 Constitution were the non-violent equivalent of Obote’s 1966 abrogation. My short point is that in the final analysis, constitutionalism is based on trust, not on the document in which the Constitution is embodied, because as you and your supporters have said time and again; nothing in that document is sacred. Just as it is not the quoting of biblical verses that shows whether you are a true Christian; it is your actions. Mr. President, how can you expect to be trusted for example on the issue of an East African Federation which today you are so much in favour of, and tomorrow may have turned completely against, if you discover that the Federation constitution does not favour your political interests?” (Oloka, 2006).

He couldn’t say it much better than this. Museveni is changing the Constitution, when he needs the fix. He is drug-addicted for power, he needs the next fix. This will be his re-up. The stash will be ready and he can continue with his addiction. That is what this is about. Nothing else. So it is special that the Legal Committee is blaming the provision of the law on Obote, when it was there all along because Museveni wanted it first. Just like accepted the term limits. Until, he had spent the hours and the years on office. Therefore, he needed that fix before the age limit is breaking his bones and his heart.

If it doesn’t happen, he will do like addicts do: lie, manipulate, impulsive behavior, criminal behavior, blame shifting and sensation seeking. He is already lying, manipulating the MPs, using criminal behavior with corrupt payments of the MPs and putting blame on others. He is just missing sensation seeking. If not, he will start another radio campaign or try to get it forced through with Special Forces Command and Police Officers like through the first reading. We can just imagine what will happen next week!

But do I believe the reasoning in this report. No and No! Peace.

Reference:

Parliament of Uganda – ‘Report of the Sectoral Committee on Legal and Parliamentary Affairs on the Constitution (Amendment) (No. 2) Bill, 2017’, December 2017

Oloka, Joe Onyange – ‘Oloka responds to the President on term limits’ (31.07.2006) link: https://www.newvision.co.ug/new_vision/news/1143715/oloka-responds-president-term-limits

Burundi: CNARED-GIRITEKA – “Declaration Contre Le Referendum Sur La Constitution” (15.12.2017)

South Sudan: National Salvation Front (NSF) – Maridi State – Maj. Gen. Saki James Palaoko “Re: Resignation from SPLM/A-IO” (12.12.2017)

IGAD Partners Forum (IPF) Statement on the High-Level Revitalization Forum on the Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (14.12.2017)

Igara East By-Election Results (14.12.2017)

South Sudan: Dr. Riek Machar Teny (SPLM-IO) letter to H.E. Hailemariam Desalegn – “Re: Composition of SPLM/SPLA(IO) Delegation to the ARCSS High Level Revitalization Forum in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 17-22 December 2017” (14.12.2017)

South Sudan: PM Hailemariam Desalegn letter to H.E. Dr. Riek Machar Teny – “Ref: Invitation to the ARCSS High Level Revitalization Forum in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 17-22 December 2017” (08.12.2017)

Opinion: Final Expectations considering the lifting of the Age Limit!

Pictures from the First Reading of the Age Limit Bill in Parliament in September 2017.

I expect no grand finale, no grand stand-off and salute. I just expect are law finalized through ceasing the central business district of Kampala. All the way from Constitutional Square over to Kololo. Everything will be check-points, military police and Special Forces Command walking in and around the gates of the Parliament.

I expect the ones opposing the bill, being arrested or taken away as hostages away from the Parliament. I except the red-ribbon people in the streets being beaten and silenced. As their leaders are behind bars and awaiting trials and also verified charges. I expect the Pro-Lifting the bill to talk in reckless behavior and about the ill of discrimination and how the anti-abolishing MPs are destroying the peace of the state. Someone even applaud the military takeover and the ceasing of the Parliament for the case of the bill itself.

We can expect the people to be silenced and afraid, as the rising tensions and the military presence is more out of an action movie, than of actual legislation being passed in the National Assembly. It is like Sylvester Stallone and his renegades are ruling the courts and the people are afraid of the millions of bullets they have in the banana clips.

While the radios, TV-Stations and media in general are subdued or even silenced if they speak ill. If they try their lose license or Uganda Communications Commission (UCC) might file a report asking certain journalists and personalities of air. Since they are damaging the calm of the President, while he is awaiting his Christmas present made in the name of Raphael Magyezi. Who is a stooge and relic of a party, who are just blindly following their leader without being allowed to think on their own.

The Second Reading will not a joyful occasion, more violence and more tension. The talks in parliament between IGP Kale Kayihura and Genal David Muhoozi is to secure the ones listed as anti, will be taken care of. While Rebecca Kadaga is informed that this will happen. Since the President does not want this law put into troubles by defiance and disorder inside the chambers.

We can only expect all of this, because that is what Museveni has ordered before, we have seen it all unfold. We can only expect the same again. As the Police and Military will be used to silence both MPs and also the public. To show the power and the need to change the law to fit Museveni himself. Peace.

Gen. Mugisha Muntu Press Statement (10.12.2017)