Opinion: Today Mzee said he will have the Crime Preventers as a reserve army, what will he use it for?

October 26, 2015 – Crime Preventers

Democracy is not simply a license to indulge individual whims and proclivities. It is also holding oneself accountable to some reasonable degree for the conditions of peace and chaos that impact the lives of those who inhabit one’s beloved extended community.”Aberjhani, (Splendid Literarium: A Treasury of Stories, Aphorisms, Poems, and Essays).

After the hectic usage of the Crime Preventers in the run-up for the General Election in 2016, they are suddenly relevant again. Even after the state are failing with funds and such. The National Resistance Movement, still seems to need several more guns and soldiers out there walking in the streets of Uganda. That is how it seems, but however now it has changed from being part of the Uganda Police Force, into a brigade from the Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF). That means the Generals will control it and order it, not the Police. That is very different animal if this happens.

Reported by 411UG today: ““I now regard you as a reserve army for UPDF. My idea is to have a small army which is equipped but with a big reserve”, Museveni stated in his address at Lugogo Arena. However, before saying so, President Museveni refuted rumours surrounding ‘who owns them’ he said; “Anybody who had an idea that this was a Kayihura project, please, get it out of your head. But Kayihura was an active cadre who executed that aspect and I congratulate him.” (411UG – ‘I now regard you as a reserve army for UPDF — Museveni tells crime preventers’ 28.03.2018).

What President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, is distancing himself from the statements the Uganda Police Force did during campaigns of 2015, when the UPF stated this: “Uganda Police Force has learnt with profound disappointment that a Facebook group called Team JPAM 2016 has referred to ‘Crime Preventers’ as a militia force, as if that was not enough, they have also drawn comparisons of it with the infamous Rwandan genocidaire group called The Interahamwe who were responsible for some of the most heinous crimes against humanity in the history of mankind. Amid this outrageous ill-motivated accusations, we thought it was important that Ugandans understand that the concept of community policing has always been there and contemplated for implementation, as way back as 1990. It is a metamorphose of the ‘Nyumba Kumi’. Those who are old enough will remember that Nyumba Kumi works on the premise that each community must be able to be self-reliant on security matters. In fact though Nyumba Kumi means ‘ten houses’ in Swahili, the concept is not rigid in its implementation. Again those of pertinent age will remember that visitors and or any new person in a given community was required to register and deposit their IDs with the chairman or the police” (Uganda Police Force – ‘CRIME PREVENTERS ARE NOT A MILITIA FORCE’ 22.03.2018).

So if they are reserves to the UPDF, that means Amama Mbabazi was actual going forward, because the accusation is now true. That means the Crime Preventers will become a brigade, another force under the UPDF. They are militia under the army, they are secondary army and brigades when in need. That means they shouldn’t be involved in policing, but national security. That is if the difference between the police and army is respected. This also means, that the Police Force getting less extra officers, since the changes of program should come swiftly, also the change in mandate of the Crime Preventers.

This is also not in line what he himself said in 2016: ““In all modern countries, there is an Army and Police Reserve. Crime Preventers are a Police Reserve. They do not have any political affiliation. Anyone who wants to become a Crime Preventer should join,” he said. Mr. Museveni reassured the country that there will be no violence during elections. “The law guarantees a peaceful election. It says what is wrong and should not be done during elections. If you do what should not be done, we will arrest you. Soldiers are not yet deployed but they will soon be,” he said” (PPU – ‘ President Museveni: Crime preventers are a Police Reserve Force’ 14.02.2016).

So two years ago, they we’re a Police Reserve, now it has changed, the army needs reserves, the army needs to be bolstered for apparent reasons unknown to mankind. The UPDF needs the extra personnel, that the UPF cannot pay for, the UPDF has budgets for extended personnel and firepower. Certainly, there is something underlining the will of the President. That he is willingly using the Crime Preventers as military reserves. That means, they will follow orders from the military and not from the new leadership of UPF. Meaning they are going from one security organization into another, where the mandate and meaning is different.

This means the Police are now having less people associated with it, this is winging the organization and establishing another norm. We can wonder if the brigade and that the National Crime Preventers Forum (NCPF), that was established in 2013, meaning that the mandate and will of this organization too, needs to change if it supposed to make sense. The Community Policing will not make sense, if they are a military brigade, unless he want to show military force and spread fear. That tehe soldiers will be with guns and ammunition in the streets, to show that the NRM has big enough force to continue their rule, therefore, you never know when you meet a UPDF Crime Preventer. The former Community Policing officer who coordinating directly with the Police. Should now be in direct line with the military. That is because their mission changed.

We can wonder what the need for a military reserve, how come? Is there a war brewing the world doesn’t know about? Does Museveni plans to invade the Democratic Republic of Congo, again? Does Museveni plan to intervene with soldiers in South Sudan, again? What is the use of extra and more soldiers in reserve, that was previous community police officers through the Crime Preventers Program.

Because, it doesn’t make sense to conduct fighting internal policing and being military at the same time. They are two vast different approach to both organizations within the community, the army to secure the borders and people from outsider invading, also being a securing element. That stops the neighbors from wanting to cross the borders. While the police who has the allowed space of investigating and combating crime within the territory, they are also securing the safety directly in the territory. Therefore, seeing the Crime Preventers becoming part of the army, means that the mandate change.

This means that Museveni is up to something. I don’t know what, but it smells fishy. I just don’t know what. Peace.

Uganda Police Force Press Release: Riots in Yumbe District (28.03.2018)

Burundi: CNARED-Giriteka – “Communique de Presse” (26.03.2018)

Joint Communique on the occasion of the Official Visit to Uganda by His Excellency Paul Kagame, the President of Republic of Rwanda (25.03.2018)

1. At the invitation of His Excellency Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, President of the Republic of Uganda, His Excellency Paul Kagame, President of the Republic of Rwanda, paid a one-day Official Visit to Uganda on March 25, 2018. His Excellency President Paul Kagame was accompanied by the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Cooperation and East African Community and other Senior Government Officials.

2. The two Heads of State held Official Talks at State House, Entebbe in a cordial and friendly atmosphere on a wide range of bilateral, regional and international issues.

3. Their Excellencies noted the existing bonds of friendship and mutually beneficial cooperation between the two countries and reiterated their commitment to strengthen them further. In this regard, they reviewed cooperation particularly in the sectors of railway and air transport as well as electricity interconnection.

4. The two Heads of States observed that the Joint Permanent Commission (JPC) between the two countries provides a good mechanism for discussing matters of mutual interest and strengthening cooperation. They therefore directed their Ministers responsible for Foreign Affairs to convene the next JPC within three months.

5. His Excellency President Yoweri Museveni congratulated His Excellency President Paul Kagame, the Government and people of Rwanda on the successful hosting of the historic African Union Extra Ordinary Summit in Kigali on March 21, 2018 during which the Agreement establishing the African Continental Free Trade Area as well as the Protocol on Free Movement of Persons were signed.

6. The two Heads of State reiterated their commitment to the economic integration of Africa, accelerating industrialization, development of regional and continental infrastructure to improve the livelihoods of the peoples of Africa. His Excellency President Yoweri Museveni commended His Excellency President Paul Kagame, in his capacity as current Chair of the African Union, for his leadership.

7. His Excellency President Yoweri Museveni expressed his appreciation to His Excellency President Paul Kagame for honouring his invitation and for the fruitful discussions they held. His Excellency President Paul Kagame, on his part, expressed his appreciation to His Excellency President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, the Government and people of the Republic of Uganda for the warm reception and hospitality accorded to him and his delegation during the visit.

8. His Excellency President Paul Kagame extended an invitation to His Excellency President Yoweri Museveni to pay a State Visit to the Republic of Rwanda. The invitation was gladly accepted and the dates will be agreed upon through diplomatic channels.

Done on March 25, 2018, in Entebbe.

FOR THE GOVERNMENT
OF THE REPUBLIC
OF UGANDA

_____________________________
HON. SAM K. KUTESA
Minister of Foreign Affairs
FOR THE GOVERNMENT
OF THE REPUBLIC
OF RWANDA

_____________________________
HON. LOUISE MUSHIKIWABO
Minister of Foreign Affairs, Cooperation and East African Community.

Bank of Uganda’s Fresh report spells fear of the growing levels of debt!

This isn’t breaking news, this just facts at this point. The growth of debt is becoming a danger for the economy in Uganda. Because of the overspending and lack of donors to pledge for the needed government services, the bloated amounts of local government and the rampant cronyism. Is all combined making sure the extent of the economy gets hit, while the Uganda Revenue Authority, doesn’t have enough levies or enough taxes to gain enough for the shortfall of cash. The deficit is founded on loans, while the government are still paying interests and growing the debt ratio at a scale that is not healthy for the economy. Even if there is a future possible oil-revenue, it still has to become massive, to repay the debts of yesterday. When the amount of GDP goes to repaying and higher rates on the new loans. This is how to step-by-step killing the economy, by circling and re-issuing new debt, to pay off the old debt. Sooner or later, you need a scheme to fix it and start a Ponzi scheme to fix the economy. That is why there are ghost refugees and ghost projects to fix funding for the failing state.

Just take a look:

The provisional total public debt stock (at nominal value) as at end December 2017 stood at Shs. 37.9 trillion, representing an increase of 9.4 per cent relative to June 2017. This growth in the stock of public debt was mainly on account of a 12.2 per cent growth in public external debt (in Shillings terms), which continues to have the dominant share of 66.3 per cent of total public debt. In December 2017, external and domestic debt amounted to Shs. 25.1 trillion and Shs. 12.8 trillion, respectively, which is an increase of 12.2 per cent and 4.2 per cent, respectively, compared to June 2017.

The provisional stock of public external debt disbursed and outstanding stood at USD 6,902.7 million as at end December 2017, representing an increase of 10.8 per cent from June 2017 compared to an increase of 24.6 per cent in the corresponding period a year ago. The total external debt exposure (debt disbursed and outstanding and debt committed but undisbursed) amounted to USD 11,690.6 million as at end December 2017” (BoU, P: 16, 2018).

The present value of total public debt as a ratio of GDP stood at 28.1 per cent as at the end of December 2017, which is lower than the PDMF benchmark of 50 per cent. However, including committed but undisbursed loans, the ratio of total public debt to GDP is closer to the threshold. This poses a risk of higher exposure or failure to meet external debt obligations in case of exchange rate volatility and slow growth in exports. In addition, high debt may become a drag on economic growth by discouraging public investment due to the high debt service costs” (BoU, P: 17, 2018).

This sort of report should worry anyone who cares about the future, the growing debt is a bad sign. It is a sign that the National Resistance Movement and President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, is putting the future at risk, because he wants to eat right now. Instead of balancing the budgets or trying to find ways to get fresh revenue for the shortfalls and deficits, instead he is borrowing for everything and with the lack of transparency, the funds are embezzled and gone in the wind. Therefore, the state can often borrow for something that only exists on paper. Which is even worse, because they are not delivering anything else than growing debt like it is a gifts. That they will not pay interests and pay it off sooner or later.

The amount of loans should worry, it really should. This sort of reports should shatter the Parliament, should reshape the government and should make the Finance Minister Matia Kasaija and Treasury Secretary Keith Muhakanizi, wish their were on a peaceful island drinking umbrella-drinks, while far away living on their pensions, and hope they are not getting a Q&A at the Plenary Session. Since this is damning and beginning of troubles ahead. Just not knowing how damaging it can be. Peace.

Reference:

Bank of Uganda (BoU) – State of Economy – March 2018

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IGAD, EU and Austrian Development Agency sign agreement on Peace and Security in Horn of Africa (23.03.2018)

Minister Jeje Odongo’s MPS on the NCIC is revealing!

Minister of Interior Jeje Odongo own Ministerial Policy Statement of 15th March 2018 are very standard sort of document, but certain statements from there is telling. Especially on the Vote 120 on National Citizenship and Immigration Control, what it is, is apparently, reasons for why it need to be addressed, because it is a real lack transparency and not taking care of the Republic.

The NCIC is compromised of: “Deployed 300 Immigration Officers and Immigration Assistants at the borders and regional offices. This recruitment and deployment has improved border control and post entry management of aliens. This has improved representation of the ethnic groups of Ugandan and staff gender ratios” (…) “Insufficient funds to undertake constructions: Immigration offices are in very small single room measuring less than 8ftX8ft which accommodates more than 5 immigration staff. Furthermore, the Headquarters is housed in what was formerly a warehouse with some services provided under tents. Limited Staff accommodation. Some borders operate in wee hours which necessitates presence of accommodation for staff. This limits space for offices, e-services and board meetings. The Directorate requires UGX25.8bn for constructions. Porous Borders: Uganda has 52 gazetted border points along 2729 km borderline operationalized through the cluster approach. This leaves part of the borderline unmanned which compromise security and revenue generation. The Directorate requires extra UGX1.9bn for border operations” (MINISTRY OF INTERNAL AFFAIRS – MINISTERIAL POLICY STATEMENT FOR THE FINANCIAL YEAR 2017/2018, P: 62, 71, 2018).

It really is showing that something is lacking when you have 52 borders and staffed three hundred officers. That means that each border post would have about average 5 officers. Just think about that, when the border needs to be open 24/7 and there would be more on certain border-posts, also at Entebbe Airport as well. Since lots of the ones entering Uganda come by planes, not only by foot. Therefore, the NCIC is underfunded, but also understaffed.

The 300 officers are not only keeping track of the foreign workers, visitors of the Republic, but also issuing passports. Therefore, the NCIC is even more important to be staffed, because of the need of control of the borders. The republic cannot have open borders and have control of the revenue and neither also population control. It is seemingly bad planning and at random. But the porous borders and the gazetted borders should have officers. Since they are issuing in the last year over 65,000 passports last year. The Officers are really busy doing and not only looking into the ones moving across the borders.

If this body is supposed to control the migration, register and secure that no-one overstays their welcome. They need bigger funding, more officers and more training. Since that must be lacking, when the borders are seen as porous. Peace.

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Uganda Police Force: Police Message – “Ref: HRM/141/225/01(.) Force Re-Organization Order” (18.03.2018)