Opinion: Succession when talking about Mzee is nonsense!

“You do not lead by hitting people over the head — that’s assault, not leadership.”

Dwight D. Eisenhower

There is an ancient saying that you cannot teach old dogs new tricks, neither can you do with President who has been running a republic since 1986. Therefore, with this in mind, the new comic relief from the National Resistance Movement (NRM) is hard for me to take serious. Certainly, with the knowledge of all the men and possibly woman who could have become the leader of the party and the Executive of Uganda.

Still, in 2017, we are at the same crossroads, the same junction and nothing has changed. The partners and participants are practically the same, unless some new cronies and sugar-babies of the Movement comes into the mix. Perhaps, the most stunning fact is that old men like Gen. Otafiire steadily sink the world with his endless wisdom.

It is as if Museveni still is the Shepard and the Ugandan people is helpless sheep needing his guidance. The reality is that the belief that he can do something he has not done is pointless. The only card he has left is to destroy more kingdoms with force and kill more his opposition. If he had proved some sort of democratic figments in his in body, it has surely died with age. As his words are now more important than legislation.

The President handpicked elite and cronies, the suiters and the ones trying to eat while can. As they know not what will happen when their master stop breathing. The plans and the succession plans has not been official or even portrayed, there been rumors of Maj. Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, those leaks turned into a besieged offices and depleted staff at Daily Monitor, back-in-the-day.

Still, if he is the viable candidate to takeover and the family dynasty that the President tries to create is hard to know. Since none in public can read the mind of the old man with the hat. So that the “news” that NRM Members of Parliament finally planned to talk about the succession seems far-fetched! Should it been done a decade or two ago, if it was a serious attempt?

He is on his unofficially seventh term as President and leader of the NRM. The founder and current leader of it. Not as he has given in without weapons in the past and instead of dialogue, he still sends Special Force Command or the Flying Squad to doze of possible enemies. Not as if it is an open discussion, more like a ruckus of who can get first to the brown envelopes and get the license to blead the state out of more funds.

Therefore, here I am, and not believing one single bit that President Museveni or the NRM NEC or any other parts of the NRM have the slightest care in mind to change him for somebody else. NRM and the NRM elite needs Museveni and his cronies, the crony system is there because of him. No question and no one with a clear mind would not see that. He gives and takes away as he sees fit. When he needs you he pays you and your extended family, but when your aspirations or goals to become bigger than him. Then you securing that you become a fringe candidate.

Museveni and his family, Museveni as his business partners does not need succession. The ones asking for it now will become renegade NRM MPs and could end up independent in the Parliament, as in the past when MPs has taken a stand towards the NRM NEC or the almighty himself. I doubt there will be change of guards, as there have not been for decades upon decades.

What we can be sure of is that President Museveni and President Mugabe are doing the same thing in their nations, holding the power without hesitation of what will happen when they leave and what sort of power vacuum that will be unleashed. What we do know is that the NRM will use all of their tricks and manipulation, all sort of writings and public display to make this sort thing normal. Peace.

Opinion: Hon. Kyambadde revealed what was important at the State House!

“I resigned from State House Uganda, because there were so many powerful people and power centers, and for example the sons and sons-in-law of first family would bring in some foreign businessmen and despite being my duty to clear them, i could not say anything.”Amalie Kyambadde (On Face Off on NBS TV Uganda, 12.03.2017).

Hon. Kyambadde who is now her second term as Member of Parliament for Mawokota North County in Mpigi District after she left or resigned her position Private Presidential Secretary at the State House, she had the PPS position from 2001 to 2010. Therefore, you see that she went to be elected as MP, instead of working in the State House.

This is very interesting as she knows the perks and working ethics of State House, as she spent nearly a decade in the State House and worked closely with the President. So the knowledge of how it works, she knows perfectly well. As the speculated issues inside the State House came out to the public in 2015:

“The wars in State House, an insider told us, “were always there but they came out in the open when Amelia (Kyambadde, the Trade minister), left State House.” (…) “The source said Ms Kyambadde exerted considerable authority over the presidential palace, hardly allowing internal wrangles to burst open into the public domain” (Mukiibi Sserungjogi & Okuda, 2015).

So there have been revealed things before, but today what she said on NBS have been sort of common knowledge, as the pictures of Hamis Kiggundu, Ruparelia Sundir and others who certainly has conducted their business transactions from the State House with deals between them. The development and acceptance of big-business happens directly inside the state. As well as the decrees and licence to do business, so the words of Hon. Kyambadde extend this idea and verifies what has been commonly known, but not yet said by former internal workers at this capacity.

That she also shows the turn-over of family business inside the State House, their own ideas bringing their connections to the State House, shows the allegiance of state is within the family and not with the procedures of the state. That can be said by the negotiations that even happened a few years ago:

“Byabagambi, who attended the meeting at State House, as did officials from CHEC and the Ugandan attorney general, has accused the MPs of receiving bribes from CCECC to frustrate the project; two of the MPs held a press conference on Monday to deny the accusations and to accuse the government of overpaying CHEC” (Rogers, 2014). So the Chinese investors and entrepreneurs had direct meetings at the State House, so the Attorney General and the MP who oversaw the Standard Gauge Railway project at the time. So the ties all connect to the State House.

In 2011 the State House had made another deal as report back in 2013:

“The Auditor General’s report for the year ending June 2012 notes that there was unfair treatment of bidders ahead of the Presidential swearing in Ceremony in May 2011 where one bidder was dropped for no particular reason” (…) “This was despite the fact that other bidders such as Country Safaris were considered to have the same problem as Africa One Tours and Travel because they could not meet the specifications of the required manufacturers” (…) “In their response, State House officials stated that they had been given a short period within which to prepare for the swearing-in ceremony yet they did not have a set date and there was no money for the function” (Athumani, 2013). So back in 2011, it wasn’t the ministries task to hire and secure the cars for the President, but State House officials. This shows the controlling aspects of the State House, not only the business being decided inside the State House.

This is just some proof of some of the business activity that happens at the State House, surely more than meet the eye and that has been reported about. Certainly, the Museveni family and kin has done more business there than we can ever know. However, there will only be indications until more is revealed or if the leaks from the State House, as it haven’t been controlled as much as it was under Hon. Kyambadde. Peace.

Reference:

Rogers, David – ‘Ugandan president tells Chinese construction boss: ‘If you are not willing to co-operate, leave’ (15.10.2014) link: http://www.globalconstructionreview.com/news/ugandan-pre3side8nt-tel0ls-chine6se-constr5uct2ion/

Mukiibi Sserunjogi, Eriasa & Okuda, Ivan – ‘Making sense of the fight in State House’ (08.02.2015) link: http://www.monitor.co.ug/Magazines/PeoplePower/sense-Museveni-Mbabazi–State-House/689844-2615958-8eg2uaz/index.html

URN/ Halima Athumani – ‘State House Officials Quizzed Over Museveni Swearing-in Vehicles’ (27.09.2013) link: https://ugandaradionetwork.com/story/state-house-officials-quizzed-over-museveni-swearing-in-vehicles

Opinion: Democratic Party and Uganda People’s Congress turns more and more into NRM-Lite!

Akena M7

“Power is a curious thing. Who lives, Who dies. Power resides where men believe it resides. It is a trick, A shadow on the wall.”  ― Lord Varys (Game of Thrones).

Adjective: Denoting a low-fat or low-sugar version of a manufactured food or drink product” (…) “Origin: 1950s: a commercial respelling of light, light” (Oxford Dictionary – Lite).

This here isn’t something based on evidence, but more a genuine feeling I have is not only one I share, but many others. There is something at stake and someone who has agreed the negotiations so these so-called opposition parties isn’t really so. That is why the Uganda People Congress has some MPs in the Cabinet and the same with Democratic Party. The same can be said that both of these parties, still have slots or parts of the delegations to the East African Legislative Assembly (EALA) in Arusha.

What we do know is that James Akena, the newly concurred leader of UPC could easily do some trade-off with NRM in 2015. That isn’t just mere speculation as his party did decent and there haven’t been any controversy or lashing out from NRM MPs towards the UPC in ages. Secondly, the DP has become the good DPs and the ones that even are parts of NRM Celebrations. There is something up with these two parties, just like Uganda Federal Alliance and Beti Kamya all of a sudden is a bigger support of the NRM government than the former NRM historical’s and the NRM hardliners.

The President and his NRM CEC must see their State House visits as a blessed and ease ways of figuring out how to undress the opposition and how to deal with them. All needs a meal-ticket, the question is who will give in to the regime and at what cost. Therefore, the arrangement and the deals behind the close doors show the conning way of the illegitimate regime who uses all sorts of methods to undermine the opposition. The FDC has clearly given in too, in my book, with even becoming the shadow-government in Parliament. Something the FDC NEC shouldn’t have considered and agreed upon, because when NRM together with the President agreed to get a UPC minister and DP minister, it would be hard to have shadow-government with members from these parties. That would be rare and weird to explain.

DP Mao

We can even wonder if Norbert Mao even cared of losing his slot as Member of Parliament in the 10th Parliament, as the DP was behind Amama Mbabazi Presidential Candidate through the The Democratic Alliance (TDA). Why I say that now? Since he is snickering and defending the NRM on NBSFrontline, attacking Lord Mayor Lukwago and the FDC when he can, just as we would expect Akena, since he has been bought sometime during the 2015. The price and the value of the UPC is for him and his closest allies to know.

DP’s Mao on the other hand is worrying, that Fred Mukasa Mbidde went so easily and elected into the EALA, also how little care the DP has given to the DP Cabinet Member Florence Nakiwala. Who could have thought the party would trade these folks that easily? That without any worry and without care has let it go, that they have set the standard of being a mediocre party who has no courage and no fighting spirit.

Maybe, Mao has gotten tired of fighting as the campaign he himself has a Presidential Candidate was sour, it wasn’t a joyful journey as the promises and the ride against the police force wasn’t ideal. Therefore, the battle even for his own MPs place got lost and as a leader who isn’t in Parliament, while the ones in Parliament are getting cosy with the NRM. That might be why Mao is complied with the forged friendships and trading in Parliament, to make sure they can gain the most. Still, the value and integrity of DP is dwindling, with every forged agreement with NRM makes them more and more alike, less different.

The NRM regime and NRM caucus in Parliament is adding DP and UPC, they are just turning into branches of the regime instead of being rooted on their own and on their own framework. It is just like Mao and Akena, just shift-bosses instead of being their own factory leaders. They work less for their own product and delivery, more and more to please the Executive through agreements and negotiations.

That is why the NRM has swallowed their paths and the lacking spine of DP and UPC has given way for this. Therefore, the current affairs and state makes them like a light version of the NRM. For this reason DP = NRM Lite and UPC = NRM Lite. Both parties are old and have a long history; they were established long before NRM, still the abolishment from Obote, made the other obsolete. So Museveni’s trick of being in the shadows of these parties before and after the parties, this is essentially killing of the multi-party system. That the NRM are tarnishing the DP and UPC to becoming NRM knocks-offs.

NRM UPC Arua 16.11.15

All of this is mere speculation, but still, there aren’t any official agreements in public between UPC and DP towards to the NRM, but their friendliness and co-operations are evident of certain negotiated deals. You will not hear Akena or the UPC complain about the NRM, just like Mao suddenly defends on national TV their position towards NRM and attacks Lukwago. There is just some uncertainty of how and what they have done behind closed doors. Beyond a shadow of a doubt some worrying signs that can and should be questioned, especially not accept as the acceptance of these parties to the NRM gives way to establish deep concerns of the value of opposition at all in Uganda. Since the DP and UPC have been thresholds for such, now it is FDC, even with a FDC NEC who doesn’t concern their legitimising the Parliament.

We all should ask and question the recent efforts from DP and UPC as legitimate opposition, even as parties without connections or how possibly they have accepted agreements with Movement. This surpass the judgement and the recognition of their existence, it is more the mere fact of lacking attention to transparency and accountability, as they are giving way to a regime who certainly does not care about procedures or acts or rule of law. The parties are therefore giving the Movement acceptance and are silently supporting their rule with these sorts of acts. Certainly, something the founders of these parties would turn in their graves and wanted to resurrect to adjust the malfunctions of these parties. Peace.

Opinion: Markets endangered in Kampala, by Mzee and his cronies!

museveni-trader-pci

“Fury, angst and despair as hundreds are evicted from Park yard market. The once vibrant market is now a sea of rubble. Is it high time such rickety structures left the city center or is KCCA impinging on the core rights of the masses? Only responses in well-written English will be tolerated” (The Kampala Sun, 27.02.2017).

The traditional market of trade between small vendors and their costumer’s are under fire, not really burning, but still they are stopped. Honourable Beti Kamya, the Minister for Kampala has decreed closure of markets and such, as well as KCCA has unleashed a permit that stops others. Therefore two markets are eaten by a pivot from the State with Minister Kamya and the Kampala Capital City Authority (KCCA) under the leadership of Dr. Jennifer Musisi, who has taken power over the Owino Market. While both ladies are working against vendors and the Lord Mayor Erias Lukwago , who doesn’t believe in this sort of decree without any procedure in either Authority or at the local councils. Therefore the sanctioned rule should go through the Mayor and also the KCCA. Something, the decree didn’t as it was served from the hand of Minister Kamya without any consideration of the rest of the leadership and government structure of the capital of Kampala. That was something that was bound to happen… though the innocent part is he vendors who are under-fire by the State Minister who doesn’t see their turmoil or trouble at all.

“Security has sealed off Nakivubo park-yard market before the ’30 days’ ultimatum given to vendors by Minister Beti Kamya to vacate elapses. Last week, the minister issued a directive ordering vendors at the Park Yard market to vacate citing lack of enough toilets which was a health threat. Lord Mayor Erias Lukwago said Minister Beti Kamya was ‘just politicking’ over the market since she didn’t have an alternative for the vendors. Some vendors have vowed not to leave the market until they are killed” (NBS Television, 27.02.2017).

“Mayhem masterminded by state agencies!!!! How could Police organise goons to lynch and/or harm KCCA elected leaders and MPS in course of executing our duties in the city centre!?.. Mr. Kayihura and Madam Betty Kamya, what motivated you to put our lives in harm’s way?. Our visit to park yard market was lawful as it was sanctioned by a resolution of the Authority that convened this morning. You invade the market on a Sunday night, cordon off the entire place without a court warrant or hoarding permit from KCCA, and then unleash terror on the business community and learders?. Terrible!!!” (Lord Mayor Erias Lukwago, 27.02.2017).

owino-market-feb-2017

Owino Market has been closed because of the issue with DFCU bank that the vendors there in total owns the bank Shs. 4.8bn. Therefore this is a current issue with bankers, but the strange act is that the Police sealed off the market and even destroyed the old vendors’ places, like they want to trade it off and get rid-off the old small-time vendors who have kept stalls there. Today the market was officially sealed off, with the police cars and metal fences by the authorities.

So know we know that the DFCU who just bought Crane Bank after it was under care-taking by the Bank of Uganda. So the funds used to by Crane Bank has to earned back, because DFCU needs profits, as they are even use their newly found wealth to take away the possibility for one of the most popular markets in Kampala. You can wonder who is investing directly and who else has greased the wheels of the minister.

The pictures of football stadium that was planned back in 2013 has resurfaced with pictures of investor together with President Yoweri Museveni that must have sparked the opportunity to pay for the sanction land and given permission to destroy the vendors place to trade goods, which has been a popular market.

If there are other unions of vendors who is struggling with debt like the Owino, expect the bank to erase the place, fill it with investors who knocks on the State House doors and gives permission to crash the place, fill it with fancy malls that won’t be affordable for other than ones on top of Nakasero Hill or Bugolobi, the rest of Kampala cannot afford even soda inside the new furnished extravagant building. The same will happen around this project where the bank DFCU and State has shaken each other’s hand, given envelopes and made sure to get a go ahead.

nakivubo-stadium

Because of this they have even gone further, they we’re given 30 days to vacate the premises on the 7th February 2017 after a decree made by Minister Beti Kamya, so by my rare calculation they should be taken away by the 9th March 2017. So that the State together with the Police was invading the premises last night and this morning; that being 26th and 27th February they did it instead.

So the state of Uganda doesn’t need to be transparent or accountable, as long as they have possible to gain monies into the state coffers and getting vouched from the state house. Rule of law doesn’t matter as long as Mzee says “do it” or “yes”. That what seems to have happen, the vendors and traders loses their ground because of investors has spoken at the state house. Shows the matter of how involved the state house is in all business deals in Uganda. That shows if you have strawmen to send to the state house, the police and the local authorities to work for the corporation. So that the locals or others with “debt” or lacking “titles” can be evicted, that seems like way the legitimize their acts towards the ones who has had the land in the past.

The same happens in Owino or at the Park Yard marked. There are no mercy, only eviction so that a football stadium and other futuristic building appearing there, because President Museveni said it was okay. Peace.

Mogadishu Declaration on Regional Cooperation on the Current Drought (22.02.2017)

East-Africa

Mogadishu – Wednesday, 22 February 2016The following joint declaration was made in Mogadishu by H.E. Ismaïl Omar Guelleh, President of the Republic of Djibouti, H.E. Hailemariam Desalegn, Prime Minister of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, H.E. Uhuru Kenyatta, President of the Republic of Kenya, and H.E. Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, President of the Federal Republic of Somalia.

1. We have come together as the heads of government of four countries in a region facing significant stress as a result of the current drought. Multiple seasons of failed rains and global weather patterns have, yet again, negatively affected the resilience mechanisms of millions of our people. This is evident in the immediate humanitarian crisis facing us today and will show up in longer term socio-economic vulnerability in communities that today are selling all their assets and uprooting their families for survival.

2. This situation, which may worsen in Somalia and result in a renewed famine over the coming months, could also have security and political implications in our region and beyond, as coping mechanisms are eroded and tensions over dwindling resources risks sparking conflict. Scores of people are moving both within countries and across borders in the hope of increasing their chances of survival. This upheaval is taking a particularly heavy toll on children and women, and makes people vulnerable to exploitation, human rights abuses and to criminal and terrorist networks. Drought-related disease outbreaks and inter-communal conflict are already on the rise.

3. While each of our governments is mobilising to respond, the dire situation calls for international collaboration and regional partnership between governments, civil society, aid organisations, business and international donors.

4. We commit ourselves to regional cooperation to facilitate a more comprehensive response and strong partnership.

5. We commit to strengthening our cross-border collaboration and our efforts to establish security and stability in Somalia to ensure an effective response to the drought and to enable further progress in peace building and state building in Somalia. We further commit to the provision of appropriate protection and assistance to those compelled to leave their areas of origin as a consequence of the drought, including those who have fled to neighbouring countries.

6. We will be consulting on a regular basis to review progress on these issues, and to agree upon any necessary collective action that will help our countries and region respond to this emergency. Furthermore, we have instructed our respective foreign ministers and drought response teams to work together and keep us briefed.

7. In the longer term, we commit to working together bilaterally and through existing regional bodies such as IGAD, the African Union as well as the United Nations to address the underlying structural issues that commonly affect our economies, environments and communities, including cross-border rangeland and water resource management.

END

Uganda: “Re: Unauthorised School Charges and Expenditures” (15.02.2017)

moes-15-02-2017-p1moes-15-02-2017-p2

Opinion: Besigye doesn’t need dialogue with Museveni!

Besigye 23.02.2016 Kasangati

Dr. Kizza Besigye and the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) do not need to have dialogue or negotiation with the National Resistance Movement (NRM) or the President himself. President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni needs more the dialogue than the FDC and their party needs it. It is the NRM government and NRM regime who needs legitimacy and needs funds. That is proven with Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group (CSBAG) who proves with the 16 trillion shillings funds the for the 2017/2018 budget of the 30 trillion shillings needed. With this in mind there is certainly that the NRM needs more international support to fix missing funds.

That Museveni would need Besigye now a year after the General Election of 2016 shows how dire the situation is, the added debt and the troubling waters on the giant infrastructure projects, as much as the missing funds for the salaries or the other financial expenses that are occurring for the government. So the proof of issues is growing as the direct budget support has dwindled down as well as the elite and the cronies still expect to be fed by the regime.

Besigye has still a forged treason case, as much as Rwenzururu king Charles Wesley Mumbere has as well. The FDC headquarters was attacked and a crime-scene as the FDC Youth and FDC P10 was attacked as the defiance campaign was even banned by the Deputy Court Justice Stephen Kavuma. As well, the Police Force under IGP Kale Kayihura monitored and followed the leadership of FDC like they we’re criminal. There were many detained and house-arrested, there was more people hurt and hospitalized by state security organization. Also, the many inflicted and detained without warrants or court order shows the impunity of the state towards the FDC.

So after this impunity, after the illegal house-arrest of Besigye and the others who has been taken into prison without any justice served, why should the FDC try to sell their soul to the Movement? That is waste of time and waste of energy, it would be like the men who traded their political lives in Nairobi talks: “The NRA and the government signed a peace and power sharing agreement in Nairobi, the Kenyan capital Dec. 17 that called for an immediate cease-fire, the freezing of all troop movements and a half share of the ruling Military Council for the NRA” (…) “The provisions of the accord were largely ignored and both sides used the lull in the fighting to reposition and resupply their forces. The guerrillas claimed the military committed widespread human rights abuses after the accord was signed” (Charles Mitchell – ‘The National Resistance Army of rebel leader Yoweri Museveni…’ 26.01.1986 link: http://www.upi.com/Archives/1986/01/26/The-National-Resistance-Army-of-rebel-leader-Yoweri-Museveni/5549507099600/ ). So the agreement done by NRA in December 1985 wasn’t a big deal, so that Museveni could do a final sting and coup to gain power, which he has never left.

A negotiation with Museveni would only enforce his rule and his longevity in power nothing else. Besigye would not be offered anything substantial; his part in the matter would end in little or nothing. FDC would get the stick, but not get the price. Just like they wouldn’t feel a difference between now and then since the price of going into partnership would benefit Museveni. The Movement would get beneficiary funding and regard internationally since FDC has a higher standing abroad than Museveni.

M7 Guards Inaguration 2016

Museveni is well-known now because of his 7 terms and his position of executive since 1986. The reality of this that a negotiation or dialogue with Museveni at this stage is redundant, unless the President all of sudden turns his own self sideways. That he would go back on all his empty promises and all of his glory. Certainly Museveni could do so, but he knows that he has too many people on his consciences to leave it all behind. The President has eaten too much of the state coffers and cannot leave the bank-accounts behind. The family is too connected and has all the leverage in the state. The movement is built around him and if he fails than the party does as well.

The Movement and Museveni would not co-sign their powers or the authority, not after the rigging and the massive misuse of the state funds, therefore the lacking funds for the current budget. Museveni knows that his loyal friends abroad will not give in to his ways anymore, therefore hoping to play other cards. Use his political brain to suck other donors in. That while waiting for more oil-monies and also trade of other with making the UPDF to mercenary army in Equatorial Guinea or South Sudan if needed. This is because they need to get fresh funding for the State House, which hasn’t paid their payment-arrears to the owners of the Okello House!

So Besigye doesn’t need Museveni at this point, he needs his party and the loyalty of his supporters. That is more than Museveni has who needs to pay for loyalty and to secure funding for the movement itself. Therefore the jobs and funds to come steady, there is always more mouths to feed and more people to silence with brown envelopes. So Museveni needs foreign support and foreign aid as the Uganda Revenue Authority has just enough regulations and taxes to bring in funds that scrape the surface, but not fill the state coffers.

So again I say and I stand by it, Museveni is the only one earning political capital on negotiations and dialogue, nothing is really to be earned by the FDC or Besigye. So with this in mind, Museveni will only gain and Besigye will only lose on it. If you know you would lose, why give way to somebody who comes to take it all and deplete it all? Peace.

FAO reports on the souring food prices in the East African Countries!

eldoret-cereal-warehouse

“In pastoral areas of Kenya, Somalia and southeastern Ethiopia, the widespread drought had a severe impact on pasture and water availability, and prices of livestock sharply decreased in recent months to very low levels, as livestock body conditions dramatically deteriorated. In these areas, the resulting sharp decline of terms of trade for pastoralists is severely constraining food access for large numbers of households” (FAO, P: 10, 2017).

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has this month released a report that assessed the prices and the issues concerning food prices in the nations around the world. This is the droughts, lack of rain and the problems occurring after the El Nino that hit the African continent. Therefore, the sad reality with the influx of issues and variables, the food markets in different nations has hit a snag and they have gone up. At levels that are worrying, as the markets they haven’t had the same rise in added income compared to the prices of staple foods. This hits the poorest the most and gives them a harder day to day, as their added prices makes the cost of living even more turbulent and hazardous than it already is.

Like the Maize and Beans prices in Kenya:

“Maize prices increased in January by 9-14 percent in most monitored markets, as the output of the short rains harvest, currently underway in eastern and coastal lowlands, was sharply reduced due to insufficient rainfall. Prices of maize in January were 20-30 percent higher than 12 months earlier in several markets, also as a result of a below-average long rains harvest, recently completed in high potential western areas of the Rift Valley. Sustained imports from neighbouring Uganda contained the increased in maize prices. In drought affected coastal counties, sharper year-on-year price increases are recorded, and in December 2016 prices of maize in Kwale, Kilifi, Lamu, Taraka Nithi and Embu counties were up to 40 percent higher than a year earlier. Prices of beans are also at high levels and in January they were up to 40 percent higher than their year-earlier levels. Most pastoral areas were affected by drought, and prices of livestock declined in recent months as animal body conditions deteriorated. For instance, in Marsabit, Mandera, Garissa and Tana River counties, prices of goats in December 2016 were 15-30 percent lower than 12 months earlier” (FAO, P: 3, 2017).

That the prices of maize had added about 20-30 percent in a year time is worrying for the region, as the Kenyan market and the current state before the elections. The Kenyan state is borrowing at a steady haste for bigger infrastructure investments, but isn’t using funds to secure the agricultural output. This is lacking initiative or use of government subsidises to secure enough production, as much as there are droughts that has hit areas, where the prices has risen as a cause of lacking output or none as the climate has deteriorating the soil. That not only Maize has risen on higher prices, also the hiking of prices of beans shows the incapacity of agricultural output in general and also securing cheap government imports.

Like the prices of Maize and Sorghum in Somalia:

“Prices of locally-produced maize and sorghum continued to soar in January as the output of the 2016/17 secondary deyr harvest was affected by a severe drought and is estimated at 25 percent of last five-year average. In Mogadishu, prices of coarse grains increased up to 35 percent. In most markets of key maize producing region of Lower Shabelle, maize prices surged in January by 32-41 percent. Overall, prices of coarse grains in January in key markets of central and southern Somalia were up to twice their levels of 12 months earlier. Prices are likely to further escalate in the coming months, as an earlier than usual stock depletion will be compounded by concerns over the performance of the 2017 gu harvest. In pastoral areas, drought caused shortages of grazing resources, with deterioration of livestock body conditions. Livestock prices sharply declined in recent months, especially in the south, and are at very low levels, up to 60 percent lower than 12 months earlier. As a result of declining livestock prices and increasing cereal prices, terms of trade for pastoralists sharply deteriorated over the last 12 months. The equivalent in maize of a medium size goat declined in Buale market from 114 kg January 2016 to just 30 kg in January 2017. The severe drought has also caused a sharp decline in milk production and surge in milk prices” (FAO, P: 5, 2017).

So Somalia who has just gone through an election, has had a heavy affected by the drought, as the grains and food production has been hit by it. As proven with the rising food prices in Mogadishu and the prices has doubled in Central and Southern Somalia, in only a year! That proves the dire food situation, as the fierce internal fighting, the federation food production combined with the military fighting together with a drought has the food markets and food productions. Therefore the citizens and farmers are the losers, as they cannot have peaceful production, lacking rains and also insecurity of their own safety. All these things combined with the uncertainty of the electorate and the new administration. The steady rise of food prices has surely hit a population that did not need another crisis.

Rising prices in South Sudan:

“In the capital, Juba, prices of sorghum and maize declined in January by 6 and 10 percent, respectively, partly as a result of the harvesting of 2016 second season crops in southern bi-modal rainfall areas, which improved the domestic supply situation. Prices of other staples, wheat flour, cassava and groundnuts, followed similar patterns. In markets located in central and northern uni-modal rainfall areas, prices of sorghum increased by 15-20 percent in December 2016 and January 2017, after having declined in previous months with the harvesting of 2016 crops. In January, food prices in nominal terms were between 2 and 4 times above their levels in January last year, due to insecurity, a tight supply situation, hyperinflation and a significant depreciation of the local currency” (FAO, P: 5, 2017).

In South Sudan the new crisis of internal battles hit, even after the long term peace-agreement was fresh and the battles that started in July 2016. The continued escalation has hit the country. South Sudan administration has been busy fighting the SPLM-IO. The SPLM-IO has also been busier fighting the SPLA/M. Therefore the engagement with trying to get people to live in peace and fresh produce to happen in the country has stopped. That together with the civil war the agricultural output has been lost with the fleeing civilians and burning villages. Therefore in this current state, the food prices rise as the lacking food stocks of internal produced are dwindling, as the state needs more import of foreign food. Not only the inflation rates of the currency, the food production has been unstable. Therefore the rising prices and the armed situation create the rise of food prices. So the stability of the nation will also secure the currency and also the agricultural output, as of now is more or less in need of food aid because of the current in-fighting and lack of government oversight. This is unhealthy and makes even the security of food into a limbo.

Rising prices of Maize in Uganda:

“Prices of maize followed a sustained upward trend in recent months, increasing in all monitored markets by 33-58 percent between August and December 2016. Subsequently, prices followed mixed trends in January, declining in the capital, Kampala, as the second season harvest increased supplies, remaining firm in Lira market, located in a major cereal producing area, and continuing to increase in Busia, a key cross-border hub with Kenya. Overall, maize prices in January were up to 75 percent higher than a year earlier and at near-record to record levels, as the upward pressure exerted on prices by a reduced second season harvest, affected by poor rainfall in southeastern parts bordering lake Victoria, was compounded by a reduced first season harvest gathered last June/July and by sustained export demand from neighbouring countries, mainly Kenya and South Sudan. In Kampala, prices of beans and cassava flour, important staples, are also at high levels, and in January they were about 25 percent higher than 12 months earlier” (FAO, P: 6, 2017).

Ugandan government has already showed lacking instruments to the current drought and the lesser output during the election and campaigning of the current leadership. This is proven now with the monetary issues that are in dire straight in republic. The proof of the rising prices as the export of maize and others to South Sudan, as the added refugees who also needs foods and are also supported aided food. The government needs to secure added food production and development of bigger yields of the staple foods. That the food prices have sky-rocketed as the region has all been hit in corridors and districts where the dried lands have killed of livestock and others. Government has showed lacking oversight and mechanism from the government has not helped the dry-lands and the aftermath. Because of this with the added strains of a cash-strapped government after a heavy-burden state after elections, has not stagnated or had initiatives to stop the growing prices of food.

Maize prices are rising also in Tanzania:

“Prices of maize continued to increase in January in all monitored markets, as production prospects for the vuli harvest, currently underway in northern and eastern bi-modal rainfall areas, are unfavourable due to poor and erratic rainfall. Further support to prices was provided by concerns over the performance of the msimu harvest, to be gathered from May in central and southern uni-modal rainfall areas, as early-season dryness affected planting operations and crop establishment. Prices of maize in January were almost twice their year-earlier levels in Arusha, located in the northeast, while they were about 25 percent higher than in January 2016 in Dar Es Salaam, the largest urban centre” (FAO, P: 6, 2017).

That President Magufuli and his party like to be the example of the East Africa. Here the Tanzanian government are delivering the same sort of levels of rising prices. The maize prices are affected by drought and the Tanzanian government also have had to take in the refugees from other nations of late. This together with the less rainfall has pushed the prices on maize in Tanzania. Certainly the prices that doubled shows signs of lacking agricultural output and less yields as the rains and drought has happen during the last 12 month.

The numbers of rising food prices together with the lacking yields shows the worrying signs of lesser rain and longer dry seasons. This all hurt the citizens and the customers in the central regions or in urban areas who buys the foods from the agricultural districts, as much as the violence and the crisis in South Sudan and long term effects of the civil war in Somalia. This happens after the drought and other political issues, together with little efforts to add the yields, shows in the rising prices of staple foods. So now the people have to pay more for the same food they would have bought last year, in some places not only 20% added, but up to double or tripled. This is certainly added strains on the personal economy of the citizens in these nations. Peace.

Reference:

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) – ‘Food Price Monitoring and Analysis – Bulletin’ (14.02.2017)

Uganda: Statement by Mr. Patrick Bitature on the malicious stories circulating on Social and on-line media channels (15.02.2017)

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Uganda: UPC for LC1 and LC2 Elections (15.02.2017)

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