The Azimio fall-out!

UPDATE: Raphael Tuju claims parties purporting to withdraw from Azimio had already started negotiations with DP Ruto even before putting demands for a copy of the Azimio agreement, says they are dishonest” (Meru FM, 09.05.2022)

Today it’s official a free-fall of parties leaving the Azimio La Umoja – One Kenya Alliance as the meetings and interviews for the running mate or Deputy Presidential Candidate is getting handled by the alliance. We knew that would be vital and game-changer for the alliance.

Azimio has already had a hectic time with all the parties and how they have been co-ordinated together. As there been levels of who has influence and sway within the alliance. That’s why these things are happening now. However, it worrying for the remaining parties, as the alliance are showing how fragile it is.

While two parties aren’t big, but Wiper Democratic Movement (WDM) is the third biggest party to leave and seek to leave the alliance.

So it’s officially that these are leaving:

Pamoja African Alliance (PAA) party led by Kilifi Governor Amason Kingi, Maendeleo Chap Chap (MCC) party led by Machakos Governor Alfred Mutua and Wiper Democratic Movement (WDM) leader Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka.

That these parties are leaving the alliance will either join the campaign of Deputy President William Ruto and his Kenya Kwanza Alliance (KKA). We know that the MCC has already joined there and we don’t know what the PAA is doing. Neither what is the plan of the WDM. However, this is showing how fragile and weak the Azimio is built.

WDM is the biggest party of the OKA, which was left when it joined Azimio. The other parties of OKA had already gone to KKA. So, it seems like Kalonzo might join with fellow NASA Co-Principals there now.

We knew that Mutua tried to get more influence with Mpuya Caucus within Azimio and now he has left that one behind as well. It is really weird and shows the lack of long term strategy of these parties.

The PAA, MCC and WDM could have opportunities ahead of itself in the Azimio. While that might cost now and they are not getting their way now. However, the ODM and Jubilee can only take things so far. Neither can they do it without all of the broad-based allies across the Republic. That’s what is striking about the Azimio alliance in the first place.

Now, when these three are leaving or have left Azimio. The OKA part of the Azimio is also inflated with NARC-Kenya and KANU. While the rest is based around ODM and Jubilee. The other parties are smaller and regional. That’s why the MCC and PAA could be vital in their areas too. Alas, they have not fled the alliance.

It isn’t getting better, but surely the coalitions is getting ironed out. As the Jubilee Secretary General Tuju even claims they were negotiating with both at the same time. If that is true… than the parties been dishonest, but the Azimio has been a closed and done things very internally. Maybe some felt left out or not taken into consideration. That’s why they have reacted this way.

However, the importance of this is clear. That Kalonzo’s journey to Azimio was already hectic and him leaving shows there was problems before he even settled. We know that Kalonzo had set his sights on being the running mate. Now we don’t know what is ahead or if he will be running together with Ruto.

We know MCC and PAA will only be sidekicks in KKA. Just like they were in Azimio. They will not be the big-shots, but be a proud asset to take away from Azimio. That is scoring some political points, but not actually winning the game. This is to early to call and to close to call right now. Even if people are claiming Baba the Fifth a long time ago.

Azimio needs to handle these fall-outs and co-ordinate with the remaining parties. Ensure they feel included and parts of the coalition. They cannot just mix between ODM and Jubilee. It needs to be broader and the net needs to be thrown to be able to catch everyone in the net. However, we are seeing a massive fallout and it’s not looking good.

KKA might celebrate, but that’s a bit early too. They have gotten a few or possible gotten Kalonzo. However, in the end… it’s just another CORD/NASA without Odinga. Who knows if these Co-Principals can make a difference this time around. Nevertheless, this does not look good and that’s clear. Peace.

Kenya: Maendelo Chap Chap Party – Maendeleo Chap Chap Party’s Resolution on Joining Coalitions (09.05.2022)

Kenya: Turkana County – Office of the Governor – Statement on Insecurity in Turkana South Sub-County (08.05.2022)

Kenya: WSR Presidential Campaign Secretariat – Press Release on Intent to Commit Electoral Offenses, Abuse of Office and Corruption of State Institutions (05.05.2022)

Kenya: Joint CSO Press Release – High Court Ruling spells Clarity in the Regulation of Campaign Financing in Kenya (05.05.2022)

Kenya: Ministry of Interior & Coordination of National Government – Month-long Curfew Imposed on Marsabit as Crack Teams Launch Operations (02.05.2022)

Kenya: Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Communique regarding Panel to Vet and make Recommendations regarding the Party’s Deputy Presidential Nominee (27.04.2022)

Kenya: Civil Society Organisations file petition in Court seeking Pronouncement on the Final Custodian Institution for Chapter 6 of the Constitution (27.04.2022)

Kenya: Office of the Director of Public Prosecutions (ODPP) – Statement on Prosecution of Cases during the Election Period (18.04.2022)

Opinion: Kalonzo wants to be the running mate of Odinga for the third time

Kenyans who call me watermelon don’t know me, they don’t understand me”Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka (17.04.2022).

The Wiper Democratic Movement President, One Kenya Alliance (OKA) Principal and part of Azimio La Umoja Coalition as a Council Member, Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka is now going in hard as his supposed to be the Deputy President Candidate of the Azimio La Umoja – One Kenya Alliance Coalition Party. Because, everyone knows that the Presidential Candidate will be Raila Odinga. That is predetermined and was written in stone.

If it will be so in 2022… then the joint ticket of Odinga-Kalonzo will be the third time. This has been done in coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD) in 2013 and in the National Super Alliance (NASA) in 2017. Both times he was the Deputy on the ticket. It is a miracle that his still by the side and was able to negotiate himself into the Azimio camp after ditching the Swearing-In Ceremony on the 30th January 2018 at Uhuru Park. While he was able to get into good graces and become a Special Envoy to South Sudan in that term after the handshake between Odinga and Kenyatta.

Odinga and Kenyatta has joined forces in Azimio, just like they did in the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI). Kalonzo Musyoka is only benefiting from the fruits of their labour and now want the full buffet in this coalition party as well.

He is now acting like what his bringing is such huge following. That if Azimio-OKA will get certain votes and such. The coalition party needs to cater and ensure Kalonzo Musyoka becomes the DP. This would make this ticket for the third time and in a third alliance.

Kalonzo Musyoka is then not thinking of any of the other parties. Him and the OKA isn’t the only group in the Azimio. He acts like his the supreme ring leader beneath Odinga. That’s how things are looking and he should consider himself accordingly.

The whole Coalition Party is filled with leaders. There could be other strategies. That’s why Azimio is vastly different from CORD/NASA as is. Azimio has a broader spectrum and a bigger range of political leaders. This is why Kalonzo Musyoka could await what would happen after the polls. As he could get a plum-job then, because he participated and negotiated in this coalition already.

We know there is a top tier of the Jubilee and Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) within the Azimio. The second is the supposed OKA and the latter is the Mwanzo Mpya Caucus. Therefore, there is several of wings within the Coalition Party. Where several of leaders could get ranked and become DP.

Why should Odinga risk his ticket for a third time?

There several of other Council Members that is eligible and could become the DP. It could be Gideon Moi, Hassan Ali Joho, Sabina Chege, Naomi Shaban, Martha Wangare Karua, Charity Kaluki Ngilu, Wafula Wamunyinyi, Abdi Noor Omar Farah and Junet Mohamed. It is not like his only Council Member who is capable and eligible. Why should he outrank these people? What is so special and unique with Kalonzo?

Well, that he plays all different fields… and switches alliances after what is serving him the most. That’s why he played so hard to get before signing with Azimio too. It was inevitable when NASA Co-Principals went to Kenya Kwanza Alliance. He had to go Azimio. Therefore, Kalonzo should feel blessed that Azimio let him in and let the OKA become a part of the Coalition Party.

Kalonzo needs to rest on his laurels and what he has achieved already. Nevertheless… he wants to be the big-man… but he isn’t as grand, because there is nothing written in stone. It is a reason why he isn’t trusted or respected. His jumping ship quickly and seeking safe-haven. Kalonzo …. needs to chill… and Azimio should pick the most fitted and in particular someone who could create trust and goodwill outside of the coalition. However, don’t trust that… because these things will be traded and negotiated there too. Peace.