Sudan-Ethiopia Tensions: Abiy’s unbelievable message…

“The two peoples of Sudan and Ethiopia are brothers. Undoubtedly, there are many problems between Sudan and Ethiopia. We must intensify and cooperate in confronting and solving these dilemmas. There are many who want us to slip into each other’s fight. But these parties – whether they are governments or others – will not reap any benefit from fuelling strife between our two peoples, for us, our choice is peace between our two peoples, and our two brotherly countries. Our choice is for mutual trust to prevail between us. There should not be confrontations between us, because of external pressures” (…) “We have to control our selves; And to be restrained. This is for the sake of our common interests and the principles of good neighborliness. There should be no enmities between us, We have all respect for the brotherly Sudanese people. We believe that Sudan and Ethiopia are capable of solving all the problems and difficulties they face in the spirit of lasting brotherhood and good neighborliness” – Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali message to Sudan (29.06.2022).

This trick could have worked after he signed the secret agreement and pact with Eritrean President Isaias Afewerki. Now in 2022 the wiggle room or believing in the words of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali has worn thin. These sorts of quotes and statements seems like a smokescreen and not the real deal. Not anymore because of the “red terror” and acts of the past year.

That PM Abiy acts of talks and dialogue between neighbours could have seen as sincere. However, after the skirmishes last year. At that time he didn’t really commit and give it any real time. He just gave the Sudanese PM a few hours before he went on to another project. The PM didn’t seem interested to talk or negotiate. It seemed like it bothered and he was disinterested in the Sudanese dignitary and hold proper talks with him.

That’s why we know he don’t want any interference from IGAD or the AU. We know Abiy want a solo-mission and only goodwill. Even if his army started it and they did execute 7 Sudanese soldiers after kidnapping them. This is why the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) retaliated and went on to attack certain parts of the El-Fashaqa region. Where the to nations has staked their claim over the territories. As the Amhara settles was evicted and banished from a settlement as well.

So, when Abiy speaks of brotherhood it seems insincere now. The same is the talks of dialogue. I should wish it was true. The PM has however been very reluctant and not engaged in these things. It doesn’t help that he says “external pressures” and that they are are “capable of solving all problems”. When his army and his allies is confronting, use violence and targeting land on Sudanese territory.

Yes, it would have been nice to see Demeke Mekonnen, Abiy Ahmed Ali, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo aka Hemeti and Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in a neutral space and with a trustworthy third party negotiators. Nevertheless, we know that is not on the cards and neither anyone who is inviting it. That’s why we shouldn’t expect an Ethiopian or a Sudanese delegation to a conference or meeting to hash out their differences.

That the AU calls for “restraint” is a natural response, as the tensions has escalated. This is all natural how the things has transpired. Abiy isn’t an honest actor and I cannot believe his words now. The Office of the Prime Minister and himself needs to do more.

This time around he needs to talk for hours and possibly days. Since, the latest executions and escalations is just furthering the actions of skirmishes of last year. Therefore, this time it’s a time for a sit-down and address the border point. Also, stop the movement of troops across it. That’s how the battles and deaths are appearing. Both parties needs to talk. This has been an escalation after the Tripartite alliance went into the Tigray Region in November 2020. Where they have gone into Sudan too.

That’s why the PM Abiy has to do more than dropping a flattering statement with words he doesn’t believing in. This isn’t enough. Peace.

Sudan-Ethiopia Tensions: Sudan army retake Fashaqa Al-Kubra in El Fashaga region

“Sudan’s military retakes complete control of Fashaqa Al-Kubra, after driving Ethiopia’s army from Brekht settlement during two-day fighting. Sudanese warplanes have taken part in the offensive. Dozens of ENDF military vehicles have been destroyed – local media” (Somali Guardian, 28.06.2022).

This two day battle in the heavily contested Al-Fashqa (El-Fashaga) region comes after the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) executed 7 Sudanese soldiers. Both nations has fought over the territory for some time.

In the Brekht or Bereket settlement Amhara settlers has been now forcefully evicted by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). That is 50km inside the Sudanese territory. So, things are changing and the Sudanese authorities are retaliating towards the Ethiopian neighbours.

These latest news aren’t only worrying. However, we knew the executions of the 7 Sudanese soldiers after kidnapping them would create tensions. Now we are seeing the Sudanese react with violence and defending their territories.

We could worry about the refugees and the ones who has fled from Ethiopia into Sudan after the start of the “Law Enforcement Operation” in Tigray region. Since the start of the warfare in the region. There been skirmishes of the tripartite alliance within the Al-Fashqa region inside Sudan. The SAF has posted and strengthened their border post because of it.

Now, they have taken it further and is proving a point. Well, that’s not shocking when the Ethiopian army is straight up executing their soldiers after kidnapping them. It is like asking for it. We just have to hope the SAF doesn’t clash even further or push onto Ethiopian soil.

There is a need for talks, but we know how condescending Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali was towards former Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok. So, time will tell if he acts differently towards the President and the Deputy of the Sovereign Council. However, I wouldn’t count on it. Abiy isn’t that kind and would only drop a “brotherly” statement if he feels his losing or lacking results for his cause.

Time will tell how this goes… but this is not looking good and the parties needs to resolve the differences. Before it escalates into a full-blown war. Peace.

Ethiopia: Ministry of Foreign Affairs – Press Statement (27.06.2022)

Sudan-Ethiopia Tensions: SAF confirms that the ENDF executed 7 soldiers (POW)

This is a worrying escalation of the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) when they are executing Prisoners of War (POW) or soldiers of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). That is happening after the skirmishes happening in the Al-Fashqa region and in the Malakawa area. It has happened as an escalation in the internal conflict of Northern Ethiopia. As the ENDF and Amhara Para-Military Group “Fano” has entered Sudanese territory. Because, the Ethiopian government wants to further it’s territory into it.

Now the ENDF has taken it further and shown their acts. They have executed and killed foreign soldiers in their domain. That says a lot about how the regime in Addis Ababa operates. This should not only be a warning, but possibly block all sort of dialogue or relations between Khartoum and Addis Ababa.

Khartoum now see what sort of neighbours they have at the moments. The Prime Minister Abiy speaks of brotherhood, but he has no issues of killing. That has been evident ever since he started his reign in Oromia and Ogaden region with mass-arrests and extra judicial-killings. Therefore, the continuation of that was furthered in the “Operation Law Enforcement” in the Tigray region. Which with the movement of troops ended up in a contest region within Sudan. The SAF has stopped the entering and the skirmishes. Still, it has been active since the start of the war in Tigray.

Just read the statement published by the Times of Sudan today!

“Sudan | Armed Forces: The Ethiopian army executed 7 soldiers and a captive citizen

The armed forces issued a statement today about the Ethiopian army’s execution of seven Sudanese soldiers and a citizen who were captives of it.

Statement text:

In the name of Allah the Most Merciful Most Gracious

Sunday 26 June 2022

Statement

God Almighty says: (Among the believers are men who are true to their covenant with God. Some of them have fulfilled their vows, and among them are those who wait, and they have not changed in the least).

In an act that contravenes all laws and customs of war and international humanitarian law, the Ethiopian army executed seven Sudanese soldiers and a citizen who were their captives, and then presented them to their fellow citizens with all contempt.

The Sudanese Armed Forces, as they extend their deepest condolences to the families of the honorable martyrs, affirm categorically to the honorable Sudanese people that this treacherous situation will not pass without a response, and it will respond to this cowardly behavior in what suits it because Sudanese blood is precious, (And those who have wronged are going to know to what [kind of] return they will be returned).

Heaven and eternity for our righteous martyrs, God is great and glory is to Sudan.

The Office of the Official Spokesperson for the Armed Forces.” (Times of Sudan, 27.06.2022).

This is worrying and the Prosperity Party cannot talk about peace. When they in “peace-time” with Sudan is killing their soldiers and executes them. That just a signal of how the Ethiopian authorities acts towards supposed enemies and how it operates. This is more than a warning shot, but should put the region on red-alert. Especially, the border forces in the Al-Fashqua region of Sudan.

Since, the ENDF is able to do this now. We have seen and heard months ago about the skirmishes in Sudan. Now, they are doing this. It is not looking good… and should send cold chills down your spine. Peace.

South Sudan: Abyei Special Administrative Area – Press Release (18.03.2022)

Ethiopia-Sudan Tensions: New skirmishes at the border on Saturday

“Sudan’s military sent fresh military reinforcements to the border with Ethiopia, a day after Ethiopian troops launched cross-border attack, killing more than 20 Sudanese soldiers. Sudan’s army says it will confront Ethiopia’s attempt to thwart the “harvest season” at Fashaqa” (Somali Guardian, 28.11.2021).

Yet, again there is reports of Ethiopian army or affiliates crossing the border from the Western Tigray region at the Al-Fashaga region inside Sudan. The Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) where attacked yesterday and it’s happening yet again. This isn’t the first time, but there been skirmishes like this in the previous year in the same area.

“Sudanese military repels a new cross-border attack by Ethiopian troops backed by Amhara militia near Malakawa area, 17km deep into Sudan border – Sudanese media reports.

Fighting lasted for several hrs. At least one Sudanese soldier reportedly killed, others wounded”

That’s why its hard to believe that the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) says this today to the press.

The Chief of Staff of the Ethiopian Army, Berhanu Gula, “Ethiopia does not want war with Sudan,” and we’ll solve border encroachments on Ethiopian territory through law and dialogue. What is happening now is an attempt by Sudan to invent a war between the two countries.” (28.11.2021).

There been further reports of an additional 33 wounded in the clash as well. Therefore, this has been bloody and devastating. What do know from reports of late, is that the Amhara Para-Military Group “Fano” and Eritrean Defence Force (EDF) have had battalions in the Western Tigray. Where they have also committed massacres in Humera area in November 2021. Therefore, these are soldiers and militia members who are willing to kill…

These has both in the past year crossed into this region and attacked on Sudanese soil. So, this isn’t the first nor the last time they will do this. As the tensions and the border dispute continues. This is far from over… and that shows the first clashes and skirmishes in the region by the parties happened in late December 2020 and we are in late November 2021. Therefore, this has been a prolonged conflict by the parties. While they have been unwilling to settle it. We know the Ethiopian government haven’t been willing and only had small-talks with the Sudanese government officials. Peace.

Security Council Press Statement on United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei (15.10.2021)

The following Security Council press statement was issued today by Council President Martin Kimani (Kenya):

The members of the Security Council heard a briefing by the Assistant Secretary-General for Africa in the Departments of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs and Peace Operations on the sharp deterioration of the situation regarding the presence of the United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA) in Gok Machar, South Sudan.

The members of the Security Council expressed their grave concern over recent developments in Gok Machar, including threats to the safety and security of peacekeepers which resulted in the death of a peacekeeper from Ethiopia on 14 September 2021, undermining the ability of UNISFA to support the Joint Border Verification and Monitoring Mechanism (JBVMM). The members of the Security Council noted that these recent threats followed the forced relocation, completed between 26 and 31 August 2021, of UNISFA troops and equipment from the JBVMM team site 11 in Safaha/Kiir Adem and team site 12 in As Sumayah/War Abar to the JBVMM Sector 1 Headquarters in Gok Machar due to the threats to the safety and security of peacekeepers.

The members of the Security Council reiterated their full support for UNISFA and expressed their continued concern that the full implementation of UNISFA’s mandate is being obstructed.

The members of the Security Council demanded the Government of South Sudan to facilitate the unimpeded implementation of UNISFA’s mandate, as described in resolution 2575 (2021), and provide full support to UNISFA’s personnel by removing any obstacles that hinder UNISFA’s work to protect civilians, including by ensuring the mission’s freedom of movement and by facilitating UNISFA’s provision of food, medicine and other supplies to its personnel.

The members of the Security Council also called on the Government of South Sudan to honour its obligations in accordance with resolutions 2518 (2020) and 2575 (2021) and under the Status of Forces Agreement with UNISFA.

The members of the Security Council underscored the important role of UNISFA and the JBVMM in support of achieving peace, security and stability in Abyei and the broader region, and urged the Government of South Sudan to intensify its mediation efforts with members of the local community in Gok Machar to reduce tensions and to provide for the redeployment of UNISFA personnel to team sites 11 and 12. The members further called on Sudan and South Sudan to convene a meeting of the Joint Political and Security Mechanism (JPSM) to address the existing challenges and facilitate the work of the JBVMM.

The members of the Security Council welcomed the continued cooperation between the Governments of Sudan and South Sudan, which is critical for the peace, security and stability in Abyei and the broader region. Recalling resolution 2575 (2021), they reiterated their support for the African Union, the African Union High-Level Implementation Panel and the United Nations Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa in mediating with the Governments of Sudan and South Sudan.

Opinion: Hemeti will challenge the Gods

The Commander of Rapid Support Forces (RSF) the former Janjaweed, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo “Hemeti” is now challenging the state and the Sovereign Council. As he has not accepted to fully integrate the militia into the army.

RSP is already semi-autonomous, but by the act in government from 2017. The powers of the President can still command it. Therefore, the manner in which the law is created. It is creating a hard way to find ways to measure it. As it was an autonomous unit, but can be commanded by the President. This is maybe why the Sovereign Council and the Transitional Government want it under the same umbrella and not run as a separate outfit anymore. Especially, when the integrity and the power imbalance it might create.

The National Army is about 110,000 soldiers. While the RSF is about 20,000 militia men. Therefore, the size of RSF is substantial. Though, Hemeti is overplaying his hand here. Al-Burhan is the President (Chairman) of the Sovereign Council and Commander of the Armed Forces. By the laws of RSF Act of 2017. This means Al-Burhan can direct the RSF the way he see fit.

That means the RSF have to comply. The RSF Act was created for Al-Bashir’s wishes and whims. However, he is no longer the President and Commander-in-Chief. At this current time Al-Burhan runs as the President with Hamdok as the Prime Minister. Therefore, Hemeti which happens to be the Deputy of Al-Burhan doesn’t have the mandate to rebel against this.

Yes, the law is made in a way, which creates a lot of issues. Certainly, it was wilfully done so. In such a way that Al-Bashir could put all the blame on Hemeti and say he acted on his own merit. Instead of having to take responsibility for the actions made by the RSF in Darfur. Now, the same protocols are stifling the integration and furthering the process of a peaceful transition.

Hemeti doesn’t want to give up now. After years as a General and continued to rise to prominence. He has tried to make himself look more feasible and trade-off as a political broker. Still, everyone knows his past and willingness to dip into the coffers and get dirty. This man is willing to sell arms to Tchad or the Central African Republic. His willing to kill civilians and be a militia leader. So, it is not like his a man of protocol and a man of procedure. The RSF web page proves that as well.

Now, his willing to bet on the prestige and the ambition on his past. That he has the ability to overcome this obstacle and loose some sort of independence from the army. While the law, which he himself referred to recently. Is stating that the President can direct it and appoint it’s leadership. Meaning, if he Hemeti goes hard on this. Al-Burhan can in effect demote him and appoint someone else who is willing to accept the fate of the RSF in the SAF. That is just a mere fact and Hemeti should be aware of that himself.

His 20,000 combating a strong national army is a bloodshed in awaiting. Hemeti already have a war-torn Darfur and is known for his attacks on civilians there. Not like there is much love lost between the general public and the RSF. They still remember how the RSF was used to quell the revolution and civilians demonstrating against Al-Bashir. Therefore, he will not garner their love anytime soon.

This is why Hemeti should accept this plight. Swallow his pride and be happy that his even the Deputy in the Sovereign Council. That even with his horrific and depressing history, which he should have answered for in the court. The lives and the families he has hurt over the years. Still, he has rose to power and sitting at the high table. That man should feel lucky and not take this for granted.

Al-Burhan and the rest of the Sovereign Council is in it’s right to integrate and get the RSF into the SAF. That is just natural and not continue the agony of having it separate. Hemeti should understand that and just move-on. If he does… he will still have the reigns and be considered influential. However, if he gambles this all now.

Both the laws, the people and the Sovereign Council will dismiss him. There will be little to no redemption and what’s worse for him. That if they arrest him or start investigation of all of his acts during the years. The man will not see the light of day again. He will either be brought to court or get jail time. That is something you don’t want when you gotten this far…

However, Hemeti rather risk it, it seems and possibly loose it all. As he challenge the Gods, thinking they will forgive him. What a fool(!). This will only hurt him and he will not see it coming. Peace.

Ethiopia-Sudan Tensions: Sudan requests UNISFA to kick-out Ethiopian Peacekeepers from Abyei

Since December 2020 the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF), Amhara Paramilitary Group ‘Fano’ and Eritrean Defence Force (EDF) have all been spotted and attacked border points on Sudanese soil. They have gone after border points in and around Al-Fashqa region. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have been reported to retake these and stationed more soldiers there.

Just to prove the levels of insincerity from Addis Ababa towards Khartoum. The Sudanese Authorities even intercepted illegal arms export to the rebel outfit of SPLM-N in Blue Nile State. That is what they have been doing and shows how sinister the Tripartite Alliance in Ethiopia is at this current stage. As well, as doing what they have been doing on the border of Sudan and trying to annex Sudanese land.

Clearly, the Sudanese has taken this seriously and sent their Rapid Support Force (RSF) – Desert Shield Force to the borders .They have sent the ones who has tormented Darfur for ages. These folks are the ones who they trust to stop the Tripartite Alliance on the border. That says a lot about their will to defend their borders.

Now the Sudanese has taken it a further step and escalating it further, which is only natural.

Sudan Foreign Minister Mariam Al-Mahdi stated this yesterday:

““Sudan has requested the United Nations to replace the Ethiopian troops present in the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNIFSA) with peacekeepers from other countries,” Mariam Al-Mahdi added.“It is not conceivable to accept Ethiopian forces deployed in the strategic depth of Sudan while the Ethiopian troops are massing on the eastern borders of Sudan,” she said. The minister said that Sudan is now reviewing its relations and cooperation agreements with Ethiopia but stressed that this will not affect the Ethiopian residing in Sudan including refugees” (Koang Pal Chang – ‘Sudan wants Ethiopian peacekeepers out of Abyei’ 07.04.2021, Eye Radio).

When Addis Ababa have been as insincere and been as violent on the border. When they have used all the various alliances to go and attack Sudan. It is only natural that the sovereign state of Sudan doesn’t trust Ethiopian soldiers on their soil. When they have attacked them, illegally armed rebels and been dishonest about their skirmishes as well.

The Ethiopian authorities is calling the neighbours their brothers, but they are coming with weapons and soldiers. That is why the Sudanese see it as a danger to have the Ethiopians as Peacekeepers. That says how much the Ethiopians has destroyed their credibility or trust. The distrust now is shattered and the Khartoum administration only see it fit to “kick them” out.

What will also happen with the changes of Peacekeepers means that the Ethiopian state will not get the profits or the foreign currency for the UN services in Abyei. That is the second price of this. Not only are they demoted and sent home. The Ethiopian state will also loose funds by this action. That is the double strike against Addis Ababa.

The Sudanese authorities are in the right here. How can someone who attacks you on the regular and makes reasons for you to deploy the RSF and more SAF brigades on the borders. A trusted ally to create peace in one of their states. That doesn’t make sense and is a sensible reason to kick Ethiopia out. Peace.

Ethiopia-Sudan Tensions: The tormentors of Darfur sent to the border region

Since 13^th December 2020 the Ethiopian and Sudanese troops have had skirmishes at the border-regions. The Ethiopian army and Amhara Para-Military Group ‘Fano’ have attacked Sudanese territory. This have been amplified and the state are hardening its stances.

Now, the Sudanese are even amping up more. After they have said to retaken border points and their claimed Al-Fashaqa region. This is further extending the warfare from the Law Enforcement Operation in the neighbouring Tigray Region inside Ethiopia. The Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) is stretching their battle-lines and also their manpower in their newest quest.

However, to go against the Sudanese is a risky game. As they will now meet a conning and warlord of Darfur. The Sudanese isn’t just sending new recruits to the borders. No, they are now sending the Janjaweed aka Rapid Support Force (RSF). The state militia co-ordinated and controlled by the Vice President of Sovereign Council Lt. Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo “Hemiti”.

Hemiti isn’t just anyone. His a ruthless warlord and a someone who has no issues with sending his enemies to their demise. Now, that the RSF is sending its ‘Desert Shield Force’ to the Eastern Borders towards Ethiopia. Expect horrific reports and striking images from the region. The Janjaweed have been a click of murderous mercenaries. These will use all means to settle the score and they will not come with mercy.

This is why the usage of RSF into this operation. Shows that the Sudanese is amplifying their operation in the border region to Ethiopia. There will be more conflict and they will use guerrilla tactics to conquer the Ethiopians from entering.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali should be concerned about this. His ‘Fano and ENDF haven’t met the capabilities of RSF yet. The RSF is another breed than what his used too. The Janjaweed have gone after their own and been a violent force for decades. The ENDF will clearly meet their end here.

That Hemiti and the Al-Burhan is calling them in. Shows their resolute act to defend its border. They are taking it further now. After Ethiopia have breached their borders for months. This is really signalling to the world. That the tension is spiralling out and a full out war between the neighbours.

Its not just a few skirmishes or small brigades going to far on a whim, but deliberate warfare. This is worrying. What is striking that Abiy is willing to have so many conflicts going at one time and not worried about the strain it causes to his troops. He clearly have the idea that his able to overcome any challenge. If not his “Yes-Men” is telling lies to keep his moral high.

This conflict in Sudan is a fools mission. It is now a bloodbath in the waiting. The Janjaweed have been deadly force for years in Darfur. To bring them here is only a sign of future death. There is nothing good coming out of this.

Abiy will indirectly challenge Hemiti, but I don’t think he knows what is coming his way. He should study the Darfur conflict. However, don’t expect him to do so. Because, he will only order the demise of his men on the front. Peace.