

South Sudan: SPLM-IO – “Re: SPLM/A Consultation on 16 June 2017 in Entebbe, Uganda” (15.06.2017)





“In times of war, the law falls silent.
Silent enim leges inter arma” – Marcus Tullius Cicero
The Merriam Webster defines the Snowball effect like this: “a situation in which one action or event causes many other similar actions or events” (Merriam Webster). At this moment and time, the Qatar diplomatic crisis has hit another level. A level that is unbelievable. To fellow Republics on the Horn of Africa are already in a military dispute over a territory, which they have fought over twice. Last time these nations fought over it was back in 2008.
These Republics are Eritrea and Djibouti. Who are two different states and with different approach to alliances and matters in general. Eritrea has in this crisis hold itself neutral to either Saudi Arabia and the GCC, while not doing anything with it’s affiliation to Qatar. Therefore, the Djibouti did earlier cut their ties with Qatar and with that the Qatari Peacekeepers in the area has left the nation. That Djibouti is important to Ethiopia and their trade is natural as the port and railway goes from Ethiopia to Djibouti. So if Eritrea want to hit two birds with two stones, they go and bang on Djibouti.
So the sudden cutting off Qatar has lead to change of powers and also of military stronghold between Djibouti and Eritrea. As the Eritrean has reacted to and sent the army closer to the disputed area. Both nations has claims to this area. Similar to activity on the Ethiopian border, which has been disputed since the independence of Eritrea. The same seem to be the case on the Djiboutian border and land.
That is why it isn’t surprising that the Eritrean government sends army and attack when the peacekeepers who has secured the territory since the last war in 2008. Certainly, the Asmara government want to take advantage, even if it costly, as the Djibouti sends their reports straight to the African Union and the United Nations Security Council to clear the air of the vicious attack from Eritrea. So the state can be seem as warlords and criminal in their acts on international scale. This is the own making of Eritrea, as they have done in recent years. Gone into war with neighbors without winning and neither getting recognition for their military operations.
There are reports that on Monday the 19th June 2017, the UNSC will take the dispute behind closed doors before finding out solution to the stalemate and current crisis between the nations. This is a long for conflict for the territory and not the first time Eritrea does this. Certainly, the GCC should intervene and help Djibouti, especially since the Republic sided with them. If it wasn’t just play for the gallery and needed display for the GCC. So that they have enough cards in the deck to hopefully get Qatar to give-in. Instead, there isn’t any indication of acts from KSA, Bahrain or United Arab Emirates, as the soldiers and territory is supposed to be ceased.
The GCC and allies have been in communication with neighboring Federation of Somalia to get them to cut ties with Qatar, without any luck, but Djibouti did so and even sent the Qatari peacekeepers home. Therefore, their proof of loyalty deserves to be repaid and that in full. That is if there are any honor in the GCC and their diplomacy in their sphere. So the Eritrean forces are now in the Dumera mountains and Dumera island, which violates the border territory of Djibouti.
Just to make matter worse, this report has also come out recently:
“Not trusting his army, Ismael Omar Guelleh sent a request for military support to Ethiopia and China. He wants Ethiopia and China to send military men and equipment to the border with eritrea to impress the latter. On the other side asmara concerned the movements of Ethiopian troops to the conjunction between the three countries, Djibouti, Eritrea and Ethiopia, sent three military miles to its southern border or the region” (Hassan Cher Hared, HCH24.com, 12.06.2017)
And this one which is more on the nerves of Eritrea:
“The statement by the retired Ethiopian general is so nerve wracking to all levels of the regime even the aging Eritrean president has wrote a letter to selected world leaders. “Washington feverishly worked at the time, through the State Department, to drive a wedge between the two peoples who have deep historical and strategic ties in order to foment a crisis and micro-manage the affairs of the Horn of Africa,” he is quoted by Eritrean state media to have said” (…) “Isais Afwerki always says it is not Ethiopia that is working against him, but the government of the United States of America. He says this to make himself bigger than life by antagonizing the world super power unsteady of another third world country which happens to be 20 times his tine country. “The ‘border dispute’ was a simple ruse as the boundary between the two countries was defined and determined without any ambiguity in colonial times. But Washington feverishly worked at the time, through the State Department, to drive a wedge between the two peoples who have deep historical and strategic ties in order to foment a crisis and micromanage the affairs of the Horn of Africa,” said the Eritrean president in the letter, according to the Eritrean ministry of information website” (Tigrai Online – ‘The Eritrean regime is nervous about an Ethiopian retired general’ 16.06.2017 link: http://www.tigraionline.com/articles/fear-nervousness-eritrea.html).
Clearly, if these allegations are true, this would give reasons not only for the GCC issues and the interference in the Horn of Africa, that the KSA, Bahrain and UAE have in the region. As they got the Djibouti government to cut ties and make sure they loyalty would be rewarded. While that is happening, the Eritrean have not taken sides, but takes advantage of the Qatari battalions leaving Djibouti. This gave way for a demilitarized zone, which they could come and takeover. This is what happening, but if the state of Eritrea are using the media this way and swaying the public as the reports are. Than it is sick and twisted, but not surprising with the massive overload of the regime of Asmara has on its citizens.
Well, the situation between Djibouti and Eritrea isn’t over, if Djibouti will get help from either their close ally Ethiopia or China, even the GCC, time will tell. Because they should see it is their time to help out, since they we’re taken by surprise, and has now also the advantage that the international community, the African Union and the United Nations Security Council will react to the hostile act of Eritrea. This is not a good look on the matter.
How news and media company describes the recent history!
“9TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE CONFLICT RAS DOUMEIRA
There are feelings that even words will never translate. Feelings that we only feel in front of these heroes… Doumeira. In front of these men who face the enemy night and day. Depends on their lives. With only one currency: Homeland or death. Yesterday, no one was insensitive. ” Military, police, gendarmes, Republican Guards, whatever your rank, we all join in your pain to have lost some of your brothers in arms, some of which are still in an unknown position. In this moment of celebration, I fully associate myself with the sorrow felt by their families. We have lost soldiers who have become heroes that neither the history nor the republic of Djibouti will ever forget” (Djib-Live, 09.06.2017).
Let’s end it on a Djiboutian note:
“Mahamoud Ali Youssouf statement about the withdrawal of the Qatari troops from Ras Doumeira, the Eritrean troops have move back into the area. “All options are on our table whether its diplomatic or military,” said the Djiboutian Foreign Minister” (Djiboutian, 16.06.2017).
Hopefully it will be sorted out diplomatically and not with arms, even if the Eritrean answered the other one with invasion of border territory. Clearly a violation and a breach of trust between neighbor states. That the Djibouti republic have a good case and also the upper-hand is evident, but if the Eritrean forces will back-down and go back without a fight. That is only a matter of their will retaliate if the Djibouti army returns to their expected territory. Peace.

About 25 weapons and more than 470 ammunition confiscated by the troops of UNISFA were destroyed by the Ethiopian Demining Military Platoon (EDMP) and United Nations Mine Action Service (UNMAS).
ABYEI, South Sudan, June 15, 2017 – As part of the continuing efforts to reduce the impact and risk of explosive hazards in Abyei, the United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA) on 12 June 2017 conducted another destruction exercise of confiscated weapons and ammunition.
About 25 weapons and more than 470 ammunition confiscated by the troops of UNISFA were destroyed by the Ethiopian Demining Military Platoon (EDMP) and United Nations Mine Action Service (UNMAS).
The weapon and ammunition management (WAM) activity took place after the soldiers of the EDMP completed a training course conducted by experts of UNMAS. The course was designed to provide quality assurance WAM activities, as well as to enhance the knowledge of soldiers and experts to meet international mine action standards.
“Together, we are pursuing the fulfillment of the UNISFA mandate to confiscate and destroy small arms and ammunition in the Abyei Area,” said UNISFA’s acting Head of Mission and Force Commander Major General Tesfay Gidey Hailemichael.
The activity has become the benchmark of the cooperation between the EDMP and UNMAS, for the benefit of peace and security for both the residents and nomad communities in the Abyei area.
The destruction of weapons and incineration of ammunition were witnessed by UNISFA and UNMAS senior leadership namely Mr Alan Doyle, UNISFA Chief of Mission Support and Mr Leon Louw, UNMAS Programme Manager.
Since July 2016, a total of 41 weapons were destroyed and 1817 ammunition were incinerated by UNISFA and UNMAS. The cooperation between UNISFA and UNMAS started in December 2011, following a mine incident in August 2011, which killed four UNISFA peacekeepers and injured seven others. Since UNMAS’ deployment, no UNISFA personnel has fallen victim to either landmines or explosive remnant of war (ERW), and a substantial amount of work was done to rid the Abyei area of the threat of ERW and landmines.

It is ironic as the National Dialogue for Peace is supposed to be implemented and worked upon, as the different stakeholders and parties would be listen too. Even if the SPLM/A-IO would send a team, but not Dr. Riek Machar. Still, the government and their army are meeting new rebellions and armies attacking them. The newest is in solidarity to King Malong, as they are this week started the South Sudan Patriotic Army (SSPA), these are starting their warfare in Northern Bahr Al Ghazal under the command of Agany Abdel-Baqi Ayii Akol. So it is more issues growing and more armies working against the SPLM/A-IG. That means so many are rebelling against President Salva Kiir Mayardit. This is worrying, as the National Dialogue are supposed to start talks and consider the different stakeholders. Instead, it seems more like ploy for the center-stage, so the international donors and such see that the central government tries to create peace. Therefore, the newest leaks of possible actions from Uganda inside in South Sudan. Show’ s the relationship between President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni and President Salva Kiir Mayardit. As the rumors and speculations of another time of redeployment, show’s that the Ugandan’s aren’t there just for peace, but for battling the demons of Kiir. Take a look!
“The official allegedly said that South Sudanese President Salva Kiir wants Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni to deploy UPDF’s soldiers to some areas he deems a threat to his government. “There is an active discussion between South Sudan and Uganda over the possibility of Uganda’s military re-intervention in our country. Kiir and Museveni started talking about bringing back UPDF to South Sudan last month [May],” the official reportedly said” (…) “Meanwhile, the source was quoted as saying that Kiir and Museveni were infuriated when some leaders of the African Union, United Nations, and other countries publicly admitted that the August 2015 peace agreement is dead, adding, “Kiir and Taban believe the implementation of the peace agreement is going smoothly.” (…) “President Kiir is only implementing what he wants not the peace. The big problem here is that Taban Deng Gai who is now the First Vice President has no power to change anything Kiir wants and it is a big problem,” the source added. The official described the FVP Gai as ‘a man with no real power’ (Adongo, 2017).
“In Juba: Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF) offered South Sudan border protection assistance which include a join effort on patrolling Juba-Nimule highway according to Press Secretary of the President, Ateny Wek Ateny. The proposal was made on Friday and more details are yet to be release” (MirayaFM, 11.06.2017).
That the Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF) and their battalions has been inside South Sudan and was vital part of the SPLA’s victory before the Peace Agreement in 2015. This sophisticated and armed army from Uganda played a big part and also helped the SPLA to secure their upper-hand. Therefore, with this intervention, the UPDF and President Museveni will intervene with more force. There are reports of weapons delivery, ammunition and technical help to the SPLA during this calendar year. So they are just adding and making sure the friendship between the Presidents stay.
President Museveni wants to be the king-maker and he has a loyal ally in President Kiir. This is something he wants to keep, therefore he was the only foreign President in the start of the National Dialogue during May 2017. Which I haven’t had much faith in and with reasons. These reasons are that President Museveni prefers battles he can conquer, not discuss or care about talks. Talks only have value to Museveni if he is the bloody genius and the one with the solving answer.
With this in mind, if the UPDF was re-deployed in South Sudan, it wouldn’t be surprising and shocking. That UPDF with battalions inside South Sudan fighting the rebels, the rebels who has gone against SPLM/A-IG in Juba. So that they would re-enter with battalions as someone says they are plannning. This would differ from the peaceful dialogue the SPLM/A and what President Museveni has said of his engagement in the National Dialogue.
The SPLA has so many fronts and so many rebellions, so if it is true and that the UPDF are going into South Sudan. Than, the President Kiir really has issues and needs help with the troubles at hand. President Kiir seem to need the UPDF and the strength of the Ugandan counterparts in the civil-war in South Sudan. Since he hasn’t had time to build the SPLA and army itself. If the SPLA was winning big and had control of the dire situation, they wouldn’t need the UPDF. Therefore, if this report is true, than the Kiir Government and SPLA are really in trouble with the different obstacles in crisis. And President Museveni would be happy to oblige as his army and his state reserves would not say “no” to the request of being ‘paid in full’ by President Museveni. Peace.
Reference:
Adongo – ‘Uganda plans to re-deploy in South Sudan – reports’ (15.06.2017) link: http://eagle.co.ug/2017/06/15/uganda-plans-to-re-deploy-in-south-sudan-reports.html






David Shearer, who is also the Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General, was speaking during a visit to Bor and Pibor in former Jonglei State in the east of South Sudan.
JUBA, South Sudan, June 12, 2017 – A cessation of hostilities agreement between warring ethnic groups in the Jonglei region is a “first step to dialogue and engagement but we now need to build on that and show that there is a real dividend for peace,” the head of UN peacekeeping in South Sudan, UNMISS, has said.
David Shearer, who is also the Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General, was speaking during a visit to Bor and Pibor in former Jonglei State in the east of South Sudan.
“My hope is that the parties will follow through on their commitments,” Mr Shearer said. “Only through dialogue and engagement can there be any durable peace and then development.”
“From our side, my visit has strengthened my view that we need to step up the patrolling of the key highway between Bor and Pibor. We will also increase our engineering work to improve roads and infrastructure in the Pibor and Bor region.
“Roads are the lifelines of communities in the area. They stimulate trade and economic activity and jobs. Some are closed because of insecurity, others through disrepair. We can help with both.”
Fighting has “disrupted trade, further degraded the economy causing real suffering for the people here,” Mr Shearer said. “I’ve visited markets in the towns of Bor and Pibor, where people told me that prices are high and produce scarce. That won’t help peace to take root.”
The agreement between the Dinka Bor and Murle leadership to end hostilities between the two communities was agreed in May and witnessed by Mr Shearer. It outlined clear next steps; the establishment of an investigations committee and a peace conference to address the many grievances on both sides.
Jonglei region has a long history of fighting between ethnic groups which has centered around cattle raiding and child abductions.

June 10, 2017 (KAMPALA)-The International Youth for Africa has strongly condemned the killing of civilians along the Juba-Nimule road, and urges the South Sudanese rebels and pro-government to desist from civilians attack. Ter Manyang Gatwech, an executive director of (IYA), for the South Sudanese base human right organization in Kampala has blamed the rebels for killing four civilians in the ambush of Friday.
However, the rights body has called on the Sudan People Liberation Movement –In Opposition to stop attacking civilian convoy escort.
“IYA condemned in strongest term possible. Those who claimed the responsibility need to be taken to the court. Both SPLM-IG and SPLM-IO committed a lot of human rights abuse this including arbitrary detention, torture, killing, forced and disappears,” he said.
IYA is urging both the government of South Sudan and the rebels allied to former first vice president Riek Machar to sit down and iron out their differences, through peaceful and recommitted to the 2015 August peace agreement.
“A political agreement should be the first to stop the war then follow by the National Dialogue in the context of reconciliation, forgiveness and accountability.
The venue, should be two phases a constitutional round table to include political parties and main stakeholders, Opposition, Church, youth, women, and community leaders both interior and exterior,” he said.
However, he urged the regional leaders and the international community to pressure both sides to accept peace if it’s forceful mean.







“President Kiir’s spokesman, Ateny Wek Ateny, said Kiir will not attend the IGAD summit. “He [President Kiir] will not attend the IGAD summit. The president has already sent a letter of apology through the minister in his office,” said Ateny when contacted by Radio Tamazuj” (…) “There are no reasons, but the president is attending to other things here in South Sudan. The team that will represent the president has not yet been formed,” he added” (Radio Tamazuj, 2017).
While several sources on the ground is saying that the negotiator and the one foreign leader legitimizing the National Dialogue of the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU) or the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement/Army – In Government (SPLM/A-IG). That are advised by the Uganda counterpart Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, which has even different parts of SPLM to discuss and find a common-ground for peace. That he would advice President Salva Kiir Mayardit wouldn’t surprise as Museveni has helped out in the past.
The other one giving advice on skipping the IGAD summit is the First Vice-President Gen. Taban Deng Gai, who has also said he shouldn’t attend. This means that the core problems of South Sudan would be discussed without any key leadership of the conflict at the 12th June 2017 in Addis Ababa. This would mean their decisions in Ethiopia would be outsiders looking in. As the SPLM-IO or other rebels wouldn’t be part of it, neither would the SPLM/A-IG. That means the two warlords and counterparts in the conflict would not be parts of it.
While most likely one of the one giving advice and being there to direct the talks are President Museveni, who will come with all sorts amendments and insights to secure that Kiir stays in power. That is the most likely opportunity, as the SPLM/A-IG will be in conflict with the rest of the IGAD over the grand-issues, as they will feel the fire and feel instructed to act by foreign powers.
Therefore the words of prof. Peter Adwok Nyaba wrote a piece called: “What do we expect of the IGAD Summit”, which he wrote on the 5th June 2017: “What then is new in the situation of South Sudan necessitating IGAD summit? Recently, Dr. Riek Machar has a rare opportunity to address, in a video teleconference, the members of the UN Security Council. This drew the wrath of the government of South Sudan in the person of Taban Deng Gai, the de factor Kiir’s first vice president. This UN Security Council’s gesture is welcome. However, it alone could not have triggered the regional reaction in form of a summit. The regime’s arrogant stubbornness and lack of concern for the deteriorating social, economic and political crisis seem to be paying off. The Archbishop Tutu Fellows of the African Leadership Institute on 25 May 2017 wrote to the IGAD Plus leaders urging them to act. A visiting US Senator threatened to stop US aid to South Sudan until the government stopped the war. These political developments could have freaked the regional leaders’ conscience to prompt a summit” (…) “A dilemma confronts the IGAD Summit. Whether to order a new political process to resolve the conflict or resuscitate ARCISS. Both options require the presence and participation of Dr. Riek Machar, the SPLM/A (IO). This puts the regional leaders in an awkward situation with President Salva Kiir and President Yuweri Museveni, who swore to prevent Dr. Riek Machar becoming leader of the Republic of South Sudan. In order to save face and avoid commitment to another political process or the resuscitation of ARCISS, President Salva Kiir might delegate Taban Deng Gai, who definitely and for obvious reasons will put up a strong resistance to both options. Taban Deng is determined to keep Dr. Riek Machar away from the region. In this President Museveni ensures him the absolute support. This will bring the summit to a dead end” (Prof. Peter Adwok Nyaba, 05.06.2017).
So if President Museveni and FVP Deng Gai advised President Kiir to not attend, because the dilemma of not only FVP Deng Gai role, but also the weakness of keeping Dr. Riek Machar away from South Sudan. With this the stalemate will continue as the SPLM/A-IG are continuing their skirmishes and the battles that continue to destroy the core republic, like agriculture and living conditions, as the refugees are fleeing to Sudan, Ethiopia, Democratic Republic of Congo and in Uganda.
More will come, but certainly Museveni is really interfering in the crisis in the Republic in a big-way, when he wants his friend to have his power and his mates around. Peace.
Reference:
Radio Tamazuj – ‘South Sudan’s Kiir declines to attend IGAD summit’ (08.06.2017) link: https://radiotamazuj.org/en/news/article/south-sudan-s-kiir-declines-to-attend-igad-summit

If the South Sudanese government trust in the free speech, liberty and justice, they wouldn’t have done what they did today. If they had trusted and seen what the foreign journalists do in their Republic. The South Sudanese government under President Salva Kiir Mayardit must be afraid of what it does in provinces as the skirmishes between the SPLA and the rebles. These stories together with the famine and man-made drought has clearly been evident with the refugee crisis and the added food aid through corridors of Sudan. These are the stories that the SPLM/A-IG are afraid of now! Take a brief look!
“The Media Authority has banned about twenty foreign journalists from entering or operating within the country for reporting what it termed “unsubstantiated and unrealistic stories”, the Managing Director of the regulatory body has said. Early, the chairman of the communications department in the secretariat of the steering committee of the national dialogue, Alfred Taban said that Media Authority has no right to bans Journalists. “The Media Authority law does not give this body the right to deny visas to Journalists on the ground that they write articles critical of the government,” Alfred said” (Danis, 2017).
Certainly, the South Sudanese government are afraid of something, they want to hide their policies as United Nations Experts and other Monitoring teams can report, but they would not do is as much as journalists. The local journalists would also fear the state and the repercussion of the media. That was supported by: “Important to note Media Authority, now taking visible role in #SouthSudan media crackdown, was supported by UNESCO, Scandanavian embassies” (Daniel Van Oudenaren, 07.06.2017). So even the free-nations of Scandinavia are clearly stopping the free-press together with a UN organization. This is flabbergasting!
That the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU) and the National Dialogue will not get it their fair coverage, as the government will make sure the message of get to the press. But some critical stories will be expelled, as the journalists who covers stories not encouraged by the government will be silenced. The stories of violence and of the rebellions. Will not be taken to accord, as the victories of the SPLM/A-IG will be covered and spelled out. Since the others media-houses will fear spreading the reports who are in conflict with the message that President Kiir wants.
If they had trusted the media, they wouldn’t have banned foreign journalists. They are fearing and afraid of coverage of the Republic. They cannot manage the coverage and stories. The Republic of South Sudan, will now only have the message and propaganda of the SPLM-IG. Unless, people leak to people like me. Peace.
Reference:
Danis, Daniel – ‘Media Authority bans about 20 foreign journalists’ (07.06.2017) link: http://www.eyeradio.org/media-authority-bans-20-foreign-journalists-country/