Opinion: Bobi Wine’s ideal is commendable, but his warning to Mzee will not be followed

Today, the People Power Movement hold a Presser in the home of Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine in Kyadondo East, Wakiso District. This is not the first time he has held a press conference there. That is just the way things are in the Republic. Today’s Presser is an answer to the “Scientific” elections in the revised road map for the General Elections in 2021.

We know Bobi Wine is a fierce speaker and he proven that yet again today:

Museveni, like all dictators before him, is determined to keep in power at any cost. He does not care what happens to the people of Uganda, as long as he is in State House! Fellow Ugandans, Museveni is at it again. He recently met with the Electoral Commission and gave them orders to organize what he called a scientific election. Using the coronavirus as an excuse, he is banning public rallies and other aspects of an election as we know them! No Ugandan should be fooled into believing that Museveni is doing this for the safety of Ugandans. As we speak now, most urban places are filled with people going about their usual business uninterrupted. No social distancing, no nothing. If anyone has any doubts, please visit Kikuubo, or any other urban place. Therefore Museveni and the Electoral Commission should not take Ugandans for fools” (Bobi Wine, 22.06.2020).

What he said here is the truth. Bobi Wine just said what’s needed to be said. Many wouldn’t dare saying this and with his platform he still does it. Plenty of more people will listen, because he said it. Kizza Besigye has said similar before, in other instances, but now that Bobi Wine says it. It might have more flair to it. As it yet another leader of the opposition who sees it.

But let me use this opportunity to put President Museveni on notice. You might have forgotten what you said in 1980 but we have not forgotten. On the eve of the 1980 election, you, Museveni, put Obote on notice. You said that if he rigged that election, you would go to the bush and fight against him. We have come to that point yet again. We are telling you that you either organize a free and fair election or step down peacefully, but if you continue provoking the patience of the people of Uganda, they will rise up against you and you will end up in the dustbin of history like your friend Ghadafi, like your friend Mobutu and like your friend Omar El Bashir” (Bobi Wine, 22.06.2020).

Here is revisiting history, a history that the President has been proud of and repeated so that all generations and walks of life knows. The President cannot hide that. Museveni is so proud of how he got to power and all the people he finessed to get there. We all know this, as it has been blasted for years and years to the public. He has even walked twice in the steps of the bush-war to celebrate the civil war he was the victor of back-in-the-day.

Bobi Wine’s notice is noble idea. It is righteous step. However, there is no way in hell that Museveni will hold a free and fair elections. President Museveni wouldn’t win in a free and fair election. He knows this and the whole Republic knows this. That is why he has total control of the Electoral Commission and all other authorities needed to own the state.

The opposition are right and justified to ask for a free and fair election. Anyone who takes a stand and wants to challenge for public office should be able to do so. Where everyone has the same opportunity for everyone. Where everyone has the same difficulties and everyone who becomes a candidate can win and can challenge the results without interference in the elections. However, that is not how its in the republic where the state and the incumbents of the government has an upperhand with resources and control of the Electoral Commission.

Bobi Wine and everyone else is allowed to say their grievances towards this system. A system built for Museveni and his cadres. The 2021 election will not differ from 2016, 2011, 2006, 2001 and 1996. All of these has been rigged, just like they have tried to do with every single by-election too. This is not news, but a reality that the President has created over the years.

The challenge is healthy, the challenge is needed, but hopefully not just words. But a STERN WARNING about what Bobi Wine and the United Forces for Change (UFC) will deliver. I don’t believe a second that the National Resistance Movement or the President will not rig these up-coming election. That would be a lie. A big FAT lie. This regime knows only how to win by pre-fixing the results to their advantage. To say otherwise is naive and stupid.

Bobi Wine did the right thing, but the state will not steer the wheel differently. For the simple reason: They are not willing to loose, because this is all they have. Peace.

Another Opposition Coalition (UFC) to beat Mzee: Will it work this time?

There was once upon a time the Inter-Party Cooperation (IPC) for the 2011. This was a coalition of six parties, while three parties later had a fall out with it and its choices. Therefore, the Democratic Party (DP), Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) and Social Democratic Party (SDP) both went out and ran on their own. DP and UPC wanted to run their own Presidential Candidates, while SDP was furious that the mayoral choice for Kampala. We know that this didn’t work at this General Election. The coalition in the end was a mix of Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), Conservative Party and Justice Forum (JEEMA).

For the 2016 General Election there was another Opposition Coalition in play. This was the Democratic Alliance (TDA), which consisted of various of opposition parties too. However, here the parties that pulled out of it was the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) to field their own Presidential Candidate. The ones remaining was the pressure group Go Forward (Amama Mbabazi), Pressure for National Unity (PNU) Gilbert Bukenya, Democratic Party (DP), Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) and Justice Forum (JEEMA). We see here that DP and UPC didn’t ditch it, as Norbert Mao couldn’t run and James Akena didn’t run for the Presidency this time. Because these parties challenged with Mao (DP) in 2011 and Olara Otunnu (UPC), but this round they couldn’t or wasn’t fit. That is why they supported the candidacy of Amama Mbabazi (Go Forward). We know that Amama and the TDA flame fizzled out quickly.

So, when I heard today that the Pressure Group People’s Power Movement (PPM), Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), Justice Forum (JEEMA), Truth and Justice (TJ), Conservative Party (CP), Democratic Party (DP) and Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) are all involved in the United Forces for Change (UFC) for the 2021 General Elections.

The main leaders this time is Dr. Kizza Besigye (FDC) and Robert Kyagulanyi (PPM). Alliance for National Transformation (ANT) Mugisha Muntu has opted out and at this time his right not to join. His reasons are clear, but it’s a bit funny. Because he had no issues with joining the Special Utility Vehicle (SUV) of the Democratic Party (DP) and the union of similar parties. So, in this regard it might be spite, because he would still be in the shadow of former leader and party president of the FDC. That is just how it looks from the outside looking in. When leaders from all the other opposition parties are joining. Not that its shocking, but don’t expect everyone to join the ride.

Expect the DP to fall out, as Mao has grudges with Besigye. JEEMA, TJ and CP will be on the ride the whole time. They only gain positives by it and have a bigger platform during the election cycle. However, with the past history. The grinding questions of how close the UPC is to the NRM. There will only be fringes of the party to join the UFC. Akena will not ditch the money train of the NRM Alliance to be part of UFC. Also with all the things Mao has done behind the scenes, I don’t expect him to run behind Besigye and Bobi Wine. His already a bit mad at Besigye for some unfortunate reason. So, we can only imagine that he will ditch out here for the DP Block and whatever he calls it. So, I anticipate the UPC and DP to tell its members to come home. If they don’t than they are betraying their parties. That is why Lukwago is a TJ and not a DP anymore.

Let me clear after all that said: Yes, I want change, but if you cannot see a pattern here. These platforms, these coalitions aren’t making it. There is a reason there is a need for many challengers. The strength, their vision and their manifestos comes out and can change things up. To beat the NRM by the polls, by an election is futile. That has been proven since 1986. Not because of lack of trying. Not because there haven’t candidates suitable or popular to beat Museveni. No, because there haven’t been the will to give way for a peaceful transition. Museveni will not loose now either. He will rig the election into oblivion. No matter what the opposition throws at it, the results will be about the same. Just different faces, unless they want to show civil disobedience and actually attack the heart of the government. Break it down to its knees and ensure its downfall. That will cost, but through the polls. I can assure you, nothing will happen. The status quo continues and the same party reign supreme. They got the guns and the authorities to send the others packing.

The UFC will have the same fate as IPC and TDA. Maybe more finesse behind Bobi Wine than a insider and friendly NRMer in Amama. Still, the UFC will only have a fools hope. Just like Frodo in the Lord of the Rings. As Gandalf said in ‘The Return of the King’:

Tell me,’ he said, ‘is there any hope? For Frodo, I mean; or at least mostly for Frodo.’ Gandalf put his hand on Pippin’s head. ‘There never was much hope,’ he answered. ‘Just a fool’s hope, as I have been told. And when I heard of Cirith Ungol–‘ He broke off and strode to the window, as if his eyes could pierce the night in the East. ‘Cirith Ungol!’ he muttered. ‘Why that way, I wonder?’ He turned. ‘Just now, Pippin, my heart almost failed me, hearing that name. And yet in truth I believe that the news that Faramir brings has some hope in it. For it seems clear that the Enemy has opened his war at last and made the first move when Frodo was still free. So now for many days he will have his eye turned this way and that, away from his own land. And yet, Pippin, I feel from afar his haste and fear. He has begun sooner than he would. Something has happened to stir him.”- J.R.R. Tolkien, The Return of the King

In the same way I look at this UFC. Not because I don’t want the junta, the militarized government and the oppressors out the Republic and into a proper civilian government. I want all of that to happen. The injustice has been going on for far too long. However, using similar tricks to beat the same dragon. I doubt it will have affect. Even if it has a new potential leader and could be the Frodo who gets the ring to Mount Doom to change history of Middle Earth to break the power of Sauron and Mordor. Still, that is a fools errand to believe that, even if the hope is there. Just like it was plenty of times with Besigye.

We need the hope and have fate that someone will bring the ring to Mount Doom. However, is this the team and the pacifier to stop the NRM? I don’t have the answer… I really don’t, but I just want them to challenge the authorities head-on and not play games that has been fought before. The names changes, but the end game stays the same.

Bobi Wine is maybe Frodo here, but that is only a lucky guess. Then Besigye is his Samwise Gamgee. But we don’t know that and Sauron continues to deploy his troops and ensure that no one gets unscratched by his army of Orcs. Right? You get the drill?

I don’t have the answers, but I just feel we are repeating history without crossing the authorities with enough power and finesse. We are doing the same old thing and getting nowhere. Stalling awaiting for the lucky brother to find the Ring in the river and get turned into Gollum. Instead of being a Frodo going into a journey, which will change everything, but will also cost. Peace.

Opinion: Joint Candidates for the Opposition is a sign a weakness towards Bosco!

Do the Opposition want to look viable?

Does the Opposition leaders want to look serious?

Are they concerned about their credibility before the electorate?

That is what they should ask themselves, as the new IPOD leader and Democratic Party President Norbert Mao is calling out to all Opposition parties to go in for joint candidates for the General Election in 2021. However, that is a false flag, it is weakening the base of the Opposition, instead of strengthening them.

What Mao haven’t learned from is the Inter-Party Coalition (IPC) and The Democratic Alliance (TDA), which have been used as Opposition coalitions to try to challenge President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni and the National Resistance Movement (NRM). However, they have been futile, as the state apparatus, intimidation and rigging has secured the ruling regime all the fortunes.

Therefore, Mao should know better as we’re in the 3rd Decade of the Museveni era. This is the sinister part of the times under him. Where the gloves are off and he uses all methods to stay in power. There are nothing he doesn’t touch and tries to manipulate in his favour. That is why, Mao and the rest of Opposition should work together, but not in a way, where they are betting on one ticket.

It is easy to see, that the NRM will get the majority, will get the Presidency and get the crown jewels of the Republic. That is what the NRM does and everyone should know this. Therefore, why risk it all on one ticket and one flag-bearer?

This is really not salvaging anything, but trading away what you have. In a system built for Museveni and his kind. Even if it is so, the Opposition shouldn’t give up and throw in their candidates. If the Opposition are only fielding on MP in every district, a Mayoral Flag-Bearer and whatever else role the Opposition want to aspire to get.

The Opposition should use all forces, use all parties and all manifesto’s to prove their difference from the NRM. The Opposition should field people from JEEMA, DP, UPC, FDC, ANT and whatever else existing out there. All parties should try and go up against the NRM. They got nothing to lose, only prove their point and configure their strategies both locally and also nationally. This to prove their difference and their plan, if the public want to see them fit to rule post-Museveni.

Mao doesn’t sound sincere or strong in the path to Presidency, when he doesn’t believe his own people can run as flag-bearers, but thinks he can negotiate and assemble strength by fixing one-by-one flag-bearer or candidate in every district and even Presidential Candidate. Alas, that will just weaken the possible Opposition. That is a gift-card to the President. This can silence the pressure of the People Power Movement, the ones who are still believing in Defiance against the state and all the others who want the Museveni to cease. However, that will not go down. Not even by a National ID-Drive or trying to WIN by the POLLS. That has be insignificant for 2 decades.

Therefore, the Opposition have figure out a way of getting a popular uprising and fight the oppression. Not continue to be under submission of the President and his made system.

Also, don’t show weakness, don’t be fatigued and give way to the President. He already tarmacking it and doesn’t give a rats-ass about you. That is why, the Opposition have to show character and stamina against the old man and his devious tactics.

Because, he would use that as a way of saying the Opposition stands for very little or have lack of principals. Since they can all work together and only seeking meal-tickets. Not that is not throwing stones in a glass-house, as his cronies are all seeking for their meal-tickets. But, the Opposition should look smarter and look like they actually want to govern with good governance and sincerely develop the Republic. Not only eat the plate of the state and see the schools fall-apart a little bit more, or more hospital without medicine or electricity. Because, that is what the state is offering the citizens at the moment. Also some added OTT Tax and using MTN Licenses to pay for Airplanes. That is how life goes on in the Republic.

Therefore, the Opposition has to look different, sound different and not look defeated. That doesn’t mean they cannot stand together in the fight against Museveni. But its the way they do it. Because they have tried the IPC and TDA without any results. So, for the L-O-V-E of God, prove your value and your mandate for the public. Let them see your true character. So, they can see the difference between you and the hungry looters who are residing their currently. Peace.

South Sudan: CTSAMM Report 2018/24 – Military Movement and Offensive Military Operations in the Wau Area – Executive Summary (26.07.2018)

Opinion: Museveni will not respect the South Sudanese Arms Embargo!

It is a noble idea to have an Arms Embargo in South Sudan, as the civil war and the never-ending negotiations of peace is continuing, even as the Khartoum Declaration and Outstanding Issues are working in tandem, even as the IGAD High Level Revitalization Forum have sort of failed and only given the republic empty promises. As the partners haven’t agreed totally or even respected the cease-fire starting on the 1st July 2018. There still been skirmishes and attacks, which wasn’t supposed to appear.

With this in mind the negotiation and peace dialogue in Entebbe haven’t been fruitful or delivered. In this spirit it isn’t weird, as he has been a starch supporter of President Salva Kiir Mayardit and the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU). That has been proven in the past, latest in February, when he promised to serve weapons to Kiir, even if there was imposed an embargo. Therefore, his words yesterday are important. Also show the provisions of the Arms Embargo in the end.

In February 2018:

I want to you tell this, and whether you believe it or not, the government will never fail to acquire weapons by any means. What the foreign countries, including the United States of America, are doing is a pursuit of regime change which nobody will entertain even in America,” said a presidential aide asked what actually was the message Ugandan envoy had delivered. “Nobody will accept that a democratically elected government be changed through the force or by an imposed agreement,” he further told Sudan Tribune on condition of anonymity” (…) “President Museveni is indeed a friend of the people of South Sudan. He sent the special message for two purposes. One, he assured his excellency, General Salva Kiir Mayardit of the support of the people and the government of the Republic of Uganda to the people and the Republic of South Sudan. His Excellency President Museveni gave the assurance of highest support in this situation. Two, in case of sanctions, the government of Uganda would do its best to ensure all weapons and associated services destined to South Sudan are facilitated,” he said” (Sudan Tribune, 2018).

In July 2018:

Museveni told the United Kingdom minister for armed forces Col. Mark Lancaster that an arms embargo will not help in the peace process. “Mr Museveni told his guests that imposing sanctions on South Sudan will not help in finding a solution to that country’s challenges adding that observation of ceasefire by the warring groups, security reform and working to have elections, among others, will help the country move towards peace,” Museveni told Col. Lancaster, according to a statement released by Uganda State House.

United Nations Arms Embargo:

Arms Embargo “4. Decides that, until 31 May 2019, all Member States shall immediately take the necessary measures to prevent the direct or indirect supply, sale or transfer to the territory of South Sudan from or through their territories or by their nationals, or using their flag vessels or aircraft, of arms and related materiel of all types, including weapons and ammunition, military vehicles and equipment, paramilitary equipment, and spare parts for the aforementioned; and technical assistance, training, financial or other assistance, related to military activities or the provision, maintenance or use of any arms and related materiel, including the provision of armed mercenary personnel whether or not originating in their territories;” (…) “8. Calls upon all Member States, in particular States neighbouring South Sudan, to inspect, in accordance with their national authorities and legislation and consistent with international law, in particular the law of the sea and relevant international civil aviation agreements, all cargo to South Sudan, in their territory, including seaports and airports, if the State concerned has information that provides reasonable grounds to believe the cargo contains items the supply, sale, or transfer of which is prohibited by paragraph 4 of this resolution for the purpose of ensuring strict implementation of these provisions” (…) “9. Decides to authorize all Member States to, and that all Member States shall, upon discovery of items the supply, sale, or transfer of which is prohibited by paragraph 4 of this resolution, seize and dispose (such as through destruction, rendering inoperable, storage or transferring to a State other than the originating or destination States for disposal) of such items, and decides further that all Member States shall cooperate in such efforts” (UNSC, 2018).

As you have seen, President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni has promised arms, even if there is an embargo and he will secure weapons for the conflict. That is how he is, he doesn’t care about the conflict or the innocent lives taken by it. He is the war-lord earning fortunes on the trade of arms and being a beacon in the midst of the conflict. It is a win-win, he get to sell weapons and be part of the peace-process. Which I find amazing.

That the African Union and East African Community is using Museveni is boggling me, when he has no trouble offering weapons and arms to the TGoNU and Kiir government. So, when he is such a partner to the Juba Administration, while it is negotiations and having dialogue with the rebels and other outfits. It doesn’t make sense.

He will not follow the Arms Embargo, as he has promised to help Kiir. Therefore, the UN shouldn’t just call upon, they should also sanction them for trading arms with South Sudan. That is why the Embargo has little value, as long as the Ugandan government are friendly and will do business with the TGoNU. They will serve the needs and sell to earn big-business in Juba on the arms-trade.

Museveni doesn’t fear the UN or the Member States, they are in his favor with refugees and peacekeepers elsewhere. So, if he breaks Arms Embargo and sanctions, he know he won’t get scrutinized or even pay for violations. That is why he will do it too. Peace.

Reference:

South Sudan News Agency – ‘Ugandan President asks UN to drop South Sudan arms embargo’ 14.07.2018 link: http://southsudannewsagency.org/index.php/2018/07/14/ugandan-president-asks-un-to-drop-south-sudan-arms-embargo/

Sudan Tribune – ‘Museveni tells South Sudan not to worry from U.S. sanctions’ (11.02.2018) link: http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article64703

United Nations Security Council (UNSC) – ‘Adopting Resolution 2428 (2018), Security Council Extends Sanctions on South Sudan’ 13.07.2018 link: https://reliefweb.int/report/south-sudan/adopting-resolution-2428-2018-security-council-extends-sanctions-south-sudan

South Sudan: Points of Framework Agreement (25.06.2018)

Communique of the 32nd Extra-ordinary Summit of IGAD Assembly of Heads of State and Government on South Sudan (21.06.2018)

South Sudan: The War-Lords wasn’t ready to speak about Peace!

In South Sudan the prolonged civil war is continuing and with the fresh dialogue between the parties didn’t help. Some had hope that the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement – In Government (SPLM-IG) or the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU) under the leadership of President Salva Kiir Mayardit. He has been ruling and with an iron fist. While the main opposition leader and rebel Dr. Riek Machar are running the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army – In Opposition (SPLM/A-IO). There is also a coalition of other rebels and opposition, who is the South Sudan Opposition Alliance (SSOA) of 8 political parties/militias, some of them are run by big men like Dr. Lam Akol (National Democratic Movement – NDM) and Gen. Thomas C. Swaka (National Salvation Front – NAS).

Therefore, the knowledge of delegations from SSOA, TGoNU and SPLM/A-IO in the IGAD High Level Revitalization Forum (HLRF) that has failed as even the house-arrested Machar couldn’t mend the fences or the idea of peaceful progress. That means the army and militias will continue to fight until they got supremacy.

Some people had hope as Ethiopian Government hosted this 32nd Extra-Ordinary Session in Addis Ababa and the shared arrangement to work on the “Revised Bridging Proposal” for all the stakeholders in the conflict as IGAD prepared for the dialogue this week. Still, that did not make it easier. They have the Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (JMEC), United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) &Ceasefire and Transitional Security Arrangements Monitoring Mechanism (CTSAMM). All of these are interfering and monitoring the Republic. This combined with all the NGOs and Bilateral Organizations who support as well. Therefore, the international community is involved in the process. They are bookkeeping and securing needed services in the midst of the civil war, even footing the bills for it all. So the TGoNU can continue their fighting against their opposition.

This combined with various agreements that has not been kept, cease fire violations and such. These War-Lords really has no plan of quitting. They are preoccupied with the continued conflict and the looting of the Republic. There major resources being squandered away, not only seen by the Sentry in their reports, but the Kenyan bloggers are looking into the money laundering and estates owned by the War-Lords from South Sudan. Clearly, they are preoccupied with earning money on the toils and tears created by the conflict. That is why they are afraid of their future if the conflict ends. The guns are speaking their language. Even as the people are still lingering in refugee camps abroad and the Republic has no solution. The leadership isn’t hungry for peace, it is hungry to overcome its advisory.

At this point as the years lingers and the leaders continue to eat of the poverty, the famine and civil-wars, even as the state is bankrupt, creating higher bank-notes and the international community is footing the bills for development and needed supplies in refugee camps. This is clearly not the intention. But that is the sad reality as the innocent are dying and is afraid. The own leadership are holding this on. They are violating agreements or stifling it. If they are not getting their way, they are picking up guns or sending tanks to their yards. That is what happen in 2016, when the 2015 Agreement was starting to be established. However, that only lasted months before the new fresh conflict we are seeing today. Since then, there has been more deflections and more creations of new outfits who wants both Machar and Kiir to step down. However, none of them seems to fit the bill.

The state of affairs is sad. The people deserve peace, but War-Lords are busy finding ways to outsmart the enemies. Instead of dialogue and building real bridges, they are instead blowing them up hoping no-one finds out.

The people of South Sudan deserves better, but the leadership is busy killing each other and trying only to use ammunition to do so. They are not interested in talking. They know the trigger and is ready to aim. Peace.

SPLM/A-IO: On the Reckless Statement of Juba Spokesman – Michael Makuel Lueth (22.06.2018)

SPLM/A-IO: On the Face-to-Face Between President Salva Kiir and Dr. Riek Machar Teny-dhuorangun (21.06.2018)