Ethiopia: The Economy is struggling, not a rising lion as previously forecasted!

For as long as I can remember there gone stories of the amazing rise of the Ethiopian economy, the financial markets and the outputs out of this world. Where the money would grow ten-folds within minutes of its arrival. Like a mirage the number’s must have appeared in front of our eyes and stories that, we are told over the recent years. The Ethiopian powerhouse and the serious contender with Nigeria and South Africa. With their railways, banks and development projects, the powerful dam and all the others. It must have been a ride for the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalgn, must be so proud of his achievement.

Why I say that, because a booming economy does not do this:

“Ethiopia and World Bank have signed a 1.3 billion dollar grant and loan agreement to enhance equitable services and reduce food insecurity. The agreement was signed by Abraham Tekeste (PhD), minister of Finance & Economic Cooperation (MoFEC) and Carolyn Turk, World Bank’s country director for Ethiopia, Sudan, and South Sudan” (All Africa, 2017).

So when a booming economy, that has such magnificent rates and growth prospects should not and no need for extensive borrowings from the World and subsidiaries, to say they need so is a lie. The debt and the international support for projects and food security is not a sign of a sound and strong economy. More of the latter if I beg to differ. On that, alas the recent weeks has proven this. World Bank was ushered in the end of September, but it is now cash-crunch time.

Not the jolly Captain Crunch, but the credit is due.

“Ethiopia will devalue its currency to attract foreign investment and close the gap in foreign trade, President Mulatu Teshome said at the opening of the bicameral parliament on Monday. He said his government is faced with a serious shortage of hard currency and export trade has dwindled in last three years. Mulatu said major projects like the construction of railway and universities will not be carried out this budget year due to a serious shortage of finances” (ESAT, 2017).

The seriousness is there and it is bleak, when the President Teshome shows up and spread enlightenment to the world. That the economy is fragile and not at its peak, is clear when all the prestige and the giant projects are now put on hold until further notice. Clearly, the financial strains have hit the economy, as well as their exports has given them less hard currency.

It does not go well, when just days ago, when this hit the fan as well:

“Double-digit inflation keeps threatening the macroeconomic conditions of the country as the headline inflation rate hit 10.8pc last month, according to the Central Statistical Agency (CSA)- the highest since October 2015. It is in contrary with the target of the government in the second edition of Growth & Transformation Plan (GTP II) to keep inflation in a single digit. The hike in the price of cereals such as teff, maize, wheat, barley, beans and sorghum coupled with holiday-driven price upsurge is the primary reason for the inflationary pressure last month, keeping the food inflation stagnant around 13pc.“As September is a time of multiple holidays, it is believed to influence the increase in the inflation rate,” the report of CSA reads” (Berhane, 2017).

That the cash crunch and the double-digit inflation hits the Republic is not a good look. The proof of the currency value falling, lack of hard currency and new Multi-National loans proves that the Financial Sector and Financial Institutions are strained. There is nothing more to give, it is just bones and not meat. It is just a matter of time before the boiling bones gives no taste to stew as well!

In addition, you the economy is bonkers when their agency spread out this sort of tales, at the time the devalued currency is told to the public on other platforms.

This is from the Ethiopian News Agency:

“The diplomats, who observed the government’s direction at the joint session of the parliaments, whom ENA has talked to also forecasted the country`s economic growth to be amplified in better manner referring the current stability of the nation. Ambassador of Bangladesh to Ethiopia Monirul Islam said the growth that Ethiopia’s economy has witnessed was ‘wonderful’ despite the drought and other problems. “It was 10.9 percent and this year I hope it will be more than that because there is a good rain, everything is good, the state of emergency has been lifted and everything is normal”. “So I think the economy should perform better especially in the agriculture sector as well as in the industry sector”, he pointed out” (ENA, 2017).

I do not know if Ambassador Islam lives in alternative reality or trying to sugarcoat the situation of the dire economic state that the Republic is facing, but it makes good propaganda for the ones who still want the fantastic picture spread around the globe. That the Ethiopian economy is sound and still growing. However, it is hard to grow when you lack currency, you have growing inflation and you are borrowing more funds. I do not know, which economy or financial system that it works splendid in. Certainly not this one.

In addition, the news of the financial rising tiger or lion of Ethiopia has been a mirage, a fraud and play for the world to see. At this stage and in time, it is far from it. The Ethiopian economy is plummeting and at amp speed. If you eat up the crap the ENA serves you, it must certainly serve your kind, but it is not reality. The President even said so, the reports are striking and the added loans proves the dire state.

The ones who is the most hurt. It is the citizens who needs the hard currency to buy food and live, they are punished for the reckless care of the financial system. They are the ones who suffers, because of how the state decided to conduct their affairs. They are the ones who feels the inflation, the rising prices and still has to get by. It is not right, but that is how it is. The Ethiopian government should subsidize and make sure the people get enough. However, do not expect that. This is from the same government that sent Agazi squad to Amhara and Oromia to kill and destroy. They do not care, unless they have too or if it keep them in power. Peace.

Reference:

All Africa – ‘Ethiopia: World Bank Assents U.S.$1.3 Billion Finance to Ethiopia’ (30.09.2017) link: http://allafrica.com/stories/201710090243.html?utm_campaign=allafrica%3Aeditor&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=promote%3Aaans%3Aabljpw

Berhane, Samson – ‘Gov’t Sees Double Digit Inflation, Again’ (08.10.2017) link: https://addisfortune.net/articles/govt-sees-double-digit-inflation-again/

ESAT – ‘Ethiopia President Says Country is Broke’ (09.10.2017) link: https://www.tesfanews.net/ethiopias-president-says-country-financial-crisis/

ENA – ‘Diplomats Laud Economic Performance of Ethiopia’ (10.10.2017) link: http://www.ena.gov.et/en/index.php/economy/item/3814-diplomats-laud-economic-performance-of-ethiopia

 

Opinion: The Ethiopian Financial Market is plummeting…

The Ethiopian People’s Republic Defense Force (EPRDF) Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn have ordered to fix economic problem the government has. EPRDF has been hailed for their financial growth, but with this sort of news. You know the growth and the reality is far from the truth. Ethiopia News Agency: “International Consultant of Trade, Investment and Economic Development, Dr. Taffere Tesfachew said on the occasion the fact that African countries are performing better than the global average is testimony to how far Africa is coming over the decade. He noted that the economic growth of countries like Ethiopia and Ivory Coast is highly impressive at this time when other African countries are struggling with one or two percent growth” (ENA, 2017).

So I have to question the economic growth, as the Forex Woes and the remittance from the diaspora are proving otherwise. Together with the need of more foreign aid to solve the famine of the drought. So the World Bank clearly knows the troubles of the Ethiopian government since they did this:

“The World Bank today approved a $600 million International Development Association (IDA)* grant to support the Government of Ethiopia’s vision of building a national safety net system to provide effective support in chronically food insecure rural areas, including providing cover during droughts. The Rural Productive Safety Net Project (RPSNP) supports the evolution of the Government’s umbrella Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) that has been in operation for the last 12 years and is one of the world’s largest safety net programs in the world. Run by the Government, the PSNP pools money from 11 donors, including $600 million of World Bank Group IDA funds. The PSNP provides regular cash or food transfers to 8 million people; currently 4 million of them are in areas affected by the ongoing drought. Its food-for-work component supports public works programs related to landscape restoration, irrigation, and agro-forestry” (World Bank, 2017).

So, when the World Bank gives this as a support of the government. You should take it serious and know the problems of the state. The need of financial support and to make sure drought doesn’t affect the starving citizens. EPRDF are doing badly and now the Forex Companies has to pay of the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) for the debt to Enterprise in Djibouti. Look!

Foreign Forex Woes:

“The directive of foreign currency allocation entails all banks must sell foreign currency to a sector whose importance is very high. The banks are required to give priority to payments authorized by the central bank such as foreign loan, supplier’s credits, interest, profit, dividend and excess sales of foreign airlines. Hence, all banks are required to sell the currency collected from importers, although the current direction is high, according to a banker with almost two decades of experience. “Even though I agree with the fact that we shared the responsibilities with CBE,” said one of the vice president of a mid-sized bank. “But requesting such amount of Forex in a short time might lead to crisis.” Yohannes Ayalew (PhD), vice governor and chief economist of the central bank, disagrees. “It is a collective responsibility of all banks whether the call was quick or not,” said Yohannes. “There is no reason to ask CBE to cover all the payments.” The Forex shortage in the country has been haunting the country for years. Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn, in his press conference with local media nine months ago, admitted that the Forex crunch would last for the coming two decades” (Addis Fortune, 2017).

NBE Directive to pay of debt to Djibouti:

“National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) gave order to private banks in Ethiopia to pay the 15 million USD bill the Ethiopian Shipping Logistics Services Enterprise (ESLSE) to Djibouti’s company. The banks are, according to Fortune, given 3 days to sell the foreign currency to the Enterprise. The order is said to have come when the entire country is in short of foreign exchange. The shortage came following the drop in the country’s export performance and remittance earnings. ESLSE owes the money to the port of Djibouti and the central bank gave the order for every bank including the government owned Commercial Bank of Ethiopia (CBE)” (Addis Fortune, 2017).

“Beset by the ever expanding informal channels of remittance, Ethiopia may continue to grapple with shortage of hard currency unless swift and collective measures are put in place, ‘Scaling up Formal Remittance to Ethiopia’ report discloses. A billion dollar transaction takes place via informal channels with 78 percent of the total remittance passing through informal networks in Ethiopia. Some experts believe that the transfer of money through unregulated channels will also likely result in illicit financial flow and dealings. The seizure of 541,659 USD around Harar is a recent indication of informal corridors of hard currency. Informal channels happen to be lophooles for global terrorism and corruption. It will open doors for illegal activities, people may use it to collect huge sums of money for their own dangerous causes, says Ethiopian Financial Security Director General Gemecu Weyema” (Gebrehiwot, 2017).

All of these articles proves the problems of the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) and their lacking foreign exchange. This has become a problem as the remittance hasn’t come through the formal channels, as the informal economy are big in Ethiopia. Together with drop of foreign exports that has also hurt the amount of exchange.

Clearly, the government of Ethiopia has a bigger problem that they want to reveal, as the NBE and the Foreign Exchange is plummeting. Therefore, the need at the same time for World Banks loans. Shows the dire situation of the economy. It is not like the Ethiopian News Agency would speak ill of own government and their policies. Since, the propaganda of own growth are more important, than actually telling about the weakness of the economy. This is a reality since the financial policy of Forex Exchange is in favor of the NBE.

This can also make it more profitable to for an informal market, instead of in the open market. The Ethiopian government really needs foreign exchange to pay of debt and use all their means. Instead, they are trying to cover-up their troubles, as they have debt to Enterprise in Djibouti and have troubles with the famine caused by drought. Peace.

Reference:

Addis Fortune – ‘Ethiopian Government Orders Private Banks to Cover ESLSE Forex Needs’ (12.09.2017) link: https://www.ezega.com/News/NewsDetails/4679/Ethiopian-Government-Orders-Private-Banks-to-Cover-ESLSE-Forex-Needs

Addis Fortune – ‘Ethiopia: NBE Ordered Banks to Cover ESLSE’s 15 Million USD Bill’ (13.09.2017) link: http://www.2merkato.com/news/alerts/5220-ethiopia-nbe-ordered-banks-to-cover-eslses-15-million-usd-bill

Ethiopia News Agency – ‘Gov’ts Need to Act Together to Achieve Economic Success: UNCTAD 2017 Report’ (14.09.2017) link: http://www.ena.gov.et/en/index.php/economy/item/3705-gov-ts-need-to-act-together-to-achieve-economic-success-unctad-2017-report

Gebrehiwot, Desta – ‘Ethiopia: Informal Channels Raise Red Flag On Forex Earning’ (14.09.2017) link: http://allafrica.com/stories/201709140729.html

World Bank – ‘World Bank to Help Ethiopia Build a National Safety Net System as a More Effective Response to Droughts’ (14.09.2017) link: http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2017/09/14/world-bank-to-help-ethiopia-build-a-national-safety-net-system-as-a-more-effective-response-to-droughts

2016/169/AFR: World Bank Group unveils $16 Billion Africa Climate Business Plan to Tackle Urgent Climate Challenges (24.11.2015)

One third of funds expected to come from Bank’s fund for the poorest countries

WASHINGTON, November 24, 2015—The World Bank Group today unveiled a new plan that calls for $16 billion in funding to help African people and countries adapt to climate change and build up the continent’s resilience to climate shocks.

Titled Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development, the Africa Climate Business Plan will be presented at COP21, the global climate talks in Paris, on November 30. It lays out measures to boost the resilience of the continent’s assets – its people, land, water, and cities – as well as other moves including boosting renewable energy and strengthening early warning systems.

“Sub-Saharan Africa is highly vulnerable to climate shocks, and our research shows that could have far-ranging impact — on everything from child stunting and malaria to food price increases and droughts,” said World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim.  “This plan identifies concrete steps that African governments can take to ensure that their countries will not lose hard-won gains in economic growth and poverty reduction, and they can offer some protection from climate change.”

Per current estimates, the plan says that the region requires $5-10 billion per year to adapt to global warming of 2°C.

The World Bank and the United Nations Environment Programme estimate that the cost of managing climate resilience will continue to rise to $20-50 billion by mid-century, and closer to $100 billion in the event of a 4°C warming.

Of the $16.1 billion that the ambitious plan proposes for fast-tracking climate adaptation, some $5.7 billion is expected from the International Development Association (IDA), the arm of the World Bank Group that supports the poorest countries. About $2.2 billion is expected from various climate finance instruments, $2.0 billion from others in the development community, $3.5 billion from the private sector, and $0.7 billion from domestic sources, with an additional $2.0 billion needed to deliver on the plan.

“The Africa Climate Business Plan spells out a clear path to invest in the continent’s urgent climate needs and to fast-track the required climate finance to ensure millions of people are protected from sliding into extreme poverty,” explains Makhtar Diop, World Bank Group Vice President for Africa. “While adapting to climate change and mobilizing the necessary resources remain an enormous challenge, the plan represents a critical opportunity to support a priority set of climate-resilient initiatives in Africa.”

The plan will boost the region’s ability to adapt to a changing climate while reducing greenhouse emissions, focusing on a number of concrete actions. It identifies a dozen priority areas for action that will enhance Africa’s capacity to adapt to the adverse consequences of climate variation and change.

The first area for action aims to boost the resilience of the continent’s assets. These comprise natural capital (landscapes, forests, agricultural land, inland water bodies, oceans); physical capital (cities, transport infrastructure, physical assets in coastal areas); and human and social capital (where efforts should include improving social protection for the people most vulnerable to climate shocks, and addressing climate-related drivers of migration).

The second area for action focuses on powering resilience, including opportunities for scaling up low-carbon energy sources. In addition to helping mitigate climate change, these activities offer considerable resilience benefits, as societies with inadequate access to energy are also more vulnerable to climate shocks.

And the third area for action will enable resilience by providing essential data, information and decision-making tools for climate-resilient development across sectors. This includes strengthening hydro-met systems at the regional and country levels, and building capacity to plan and design climate-resilient investments.

“The plan is a ‘win-win’ for all especially the people in Africa who have to adapt to climate change and work to mitigate its impacts,” said Jamal Saghir, the World Bank’s Senior Regional Adviser for Africa. “We look forward to working with African governments and development partners, including the private sector, to move this plan forward and deliver climate smart development.”

The Africa Climate Business Plan reflects contributions and inputs from a wide variety of partners with whom the Bank is already collaborating on the ground, in a coordinated effort to increase Africa’s resilience to climate variability and change. The plan aims to help raise awareness and accelerate resource mobilization for the region’s critical climate-resilience and low-carbon initiatives.

The plan warns that unless decisive action is taken, climate variability and change could seriously jeopardize the region’s hard-won development gains and its aspirations for further growth and poverty reduction. And it comes in the wake of Bank analysis which indicates climate change could push up to 43 million more Africans into poverty by 2030.

Uganda’s Medium Term Debt Management Strategy for FY 2015/2015 – FY 2019/2020: What is it all about?

Here you will see what strategies and plans the Government of Uganda has made for their loans and debts. This is about how the Government will deal with it and how it can be done. The numbers tell what they can expect if they pick the certain ways of dealing with it. It shows what can happen and the shock scenarios are important.

This should be seen as important to follow especially with the growing debt and the rates that come with that. Therefore it will be something that should be monitored. From the sustainability of the ratio according the GDP should be something that also brings fear. Especially since this will have general effect on how the general economy will be hit with the down payments and strain the basic budgets of the government. There its a viable thing that should be well known by people, because this will have big importance until FY 2019/2020

“The Uganda Vision 2040 aspires to transform Uganda into a modern and prosperous society within 30 years through provision of adequate infrastructure, development of agriculture, human resources and services sectors, enlargement of markets, strengthening of the private sector and through industrialization” (…) “Implementation of the Uganda 2040 Vision will require substantial resources that will partly be garnered through the domestic and international borrowing. To ensure that our debt remain sustainable, such borrowing has to be carried out through a properly formulated Medium Term Debt Management Strategy (MTDS)” (MTDS, P: 4, 2015).

“The key aim for the MTDS2015 is to ascertain the cost and risk trade-off of financing the medium term fiscal deficit through borrowing while remaining mindful of our debt sustainability” (…) “To meet Government’s financing requirements at the minimum cost, subject to a prudent degree of risk; (ii) to ensure that the level of public debt remains sustainable, both in the medium and long term horizon while being mindful of future generations; and (iii) to promote the development of the domestic financial market (MTDS, P: 6, 2015).

Strategies:

1. Traditional post debt relief approach of prioritizing concessional financing.
2. A debut Euro-Bond: The Sovereign Bond Issuance which risks the cost and the trade-off of the International-Market and financing alternative.
3. Non-Concessional borrowing and meeting with bilateral with commercial creditors negotiations.
4. Reliance on Domestic-Financing establishing the cost and risk trade-offs, which risk less since it’s from the Domestic-Financial-Market.

(MTDS, P: 6-7, 2015).

External Debt Stock:

From FY2006/2007 it was Domestic Debt and Outstanding(DoD) was US$1.47 billion. And in FY 2013/2014 had risen to US$4.3 billion (MTDS, P: 13, 2015).

Domestic Debt Stock:

Refinancing:

External debt maturity for the ATM (Average Time for Maturity) was 18.9 Years. The plan is setting that the in 2.3 years will the ATM be 11.8 years.

Currencies:

Aggregrate Medium Term Debt Strategy:

The outlook for the 5.3% in FY 2014/2015 and is looking to reach 5.8% in FY 2015/2016. The plan forward is to attain an average 6.3% for the fiscal framework (MTDS, P: 17, 2015).

Government expenditure is on an average to be 20.9% of the GDP for the FY 2014/2015. In the 2015/2016 it is 21.7% of the GDP. The main expenditure for the budget is the infrastructure projects like the upgrading of Entebbe International Airport, Hydro Power projects and Albertine Regional Airport. The total cost for the projects is US$7.0 Billion. There is set to be 5% target for the inflation rate and the exchange rate is set for 12.1% in FY 2015/2016 and average for 2.4% the rest of the years for the medium term (MTDS P: 17-18).

Stylized Financing Instruments:

Two instruments:

i: International Development Association (IDA) has the interest 0.75% for the maturity of 38 years.

ii: African Development Fund (ADF) has the interest 0.75% with a maturity of 40 years.

iv: The concessional is with fixed rate loans with 23 years maturity and 6 year grace period. These terms comes from IDA-Blend, Kuwait Fund, Abu Dhabi Fund, UK-Export Credit Guarantee.

v: The fixed rate instrument on the Euro Bond which is priced on a ten-years US-Treasury interest rate.

vii: With Pure commercial loans is a instruments with a 7 years of maturity and with a 3 years grace period.

viii: One T-Bills is a domestic market debt instrument that has a maturity of 91 days, 181 days,  and 364 days.

ix: Four T-Bonds is a domestic market debt instrument that has a maturity of 2, 5, 10 and 15 years.

(MTDS, P: 18-21, 2015).

Four scenarios for the Market:

First Scenario: The first thing is possible currency depreciation – is that in the FY 2015/2016 can end up with 30% depreciation and will have to work to sustain that through to 2019/2020.

Second Scenario: A sharp off increase in domestic rates for 2015/2016 and at the Interest Rate will follow the baseline of the Foreign Currency.

Third Scenario: Domestic Interest Rate still set to be baseline assumption that we’re set. And that the denomination on the Foreign Currency following the instruments set for it.

Fourth Scenario: That the Decapitation of the UGX towards the US Dollar in the amount of 15%, that can lead to a shock in the domestic yield a curve for the 2015/2016.

(MTDS, P: 23, 2015).

Analysis of the strategies:

That the total debt-to-GDP from the current level of 28.6% by the end of June 2014, if the end of the time it might end up with 50% level by 2020. This is because of substantial projected increases the fiscal deficit. With the worst strategy the interest rate can go from 1.4% in June 2014 to become 4% in 2020 (MTDS, P: 24, 2015).

 

 

Hope you have found it interesting and learn something of the Government of Uganda planning of dealing with their debt. And how they see the future for their economy. Then what kind of strategies and scenario’s that could appear and how they will appear together. The Financial Years that are ahead and how the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development thinks of their economy. Hope it give you something and also a little feeling about how the economy might progress.

Peace.

Reference:

Republic of Uganda/Directorate of Debt & Cash Management – Ministry of Financing, Planning & Economic Development: ‘Medium Term Debt  Management Strategy’ (MTDS): 2015/2016 -2019/2020 (April 2015).

2015/320/AFR: World Bank Boosts Fisheries in South West Indian Ocean African Countries

WASHINGTON, February 27, 2015 – The World Bank Group’s (WBG) Board of Executive Directors today approved a total of US$75.5 million to improve the management of fisheries and increase the economic benefits from fishing-related activities for families living in the coastal communities of the South West Indian Ocean region.

The First South West Indian Ocean Fisheries Governance and Shared Growth Project(SWIOFish1) will help improve regional cooperation for the nine African countries that border the waters of the South West Indian Ocean.

“Fisheries are a key contributor to food security, nutrition and job creation for rural coastal populations of the South West Indian Ocean, who are among the poorest and most vulnerable in the region,” said Colin Bruce, World Bank Director of Regional Integration for the Africa Region.  “Promoting sustainable use of fisheries, linking smaller operators to new value chains and improving regional cooperation over shared resources will boost shared prosperity in these countries and the entire region.”

The coastal populations of the South West Indian Ocean region suffer from challenges such as too little economic growth, hunger, poverty and exposure to climate change impacts. Fish stocks in the region are increasingly facing risks of overexploitation or depletion from overfishing by industrial vessels and artisanal fishers.

The project will initiate regional discussions and cooperation to develop a regional fisheries management program focusing on reducing pressure on the fishing ecosystems and helping countries address shared challenges. Safeguarding fish resource productivity and developing the value chain for fish production will expand the fishers’ livelihoods as a step towards reducing poverty.

Financed by $75.5 million from the International Development Association (IDA)*, the WBG’s fund for the poorest, and $15.5 in co-financing trust funds form the Global Environment Facility (GEF), the project will support regional coordination and cooperation to improve the management and sustainable development of fisheries in the South West Indian Ocean and will benefit the countries in the South West Indian Ocean Fisheries Commission: Comoros, Madagascar, Mauritius, Seychelles, Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania, Mozambique, South Africa, Yemen and Maldives.

Three countries in the region, Comoros, Mozambique, and Tanzania have already taken steps to develop strategies and institutions to improve fisheries management and marine health through other World Bank projects. To leverage these previous investments Comoros will receive $13 million, Mozambique will receive $37 million and Tanzania will receive $36 million to strengthen country-wide institutions and activities, improve fishers’ livelihoods, expand the regional business climate and increase private sector investment in the fishing industry.

“Overfishing, including from uncontrolled small-scale fishing, progressively undermines the resource base upon which coastal communities depend,” said World Bank Task Team Leader Xavier F. P. Vincent. “The South West Indian Ocean marine fisheries are part of a larger marine ecosystem shared by all countries of the region. Today’s project will support regional coordination among the countries that border the South West Indian Ocean, improve the health and sustainability of the fisheries.”