Opinion: Jubilee plans to grow the debt even further with a new Eurobond!

The Jubilee and the Uhuru Kenyatta are already in a slippery slope politically and aggressively as a Dictator, who force himself on the public and uses the government institutions to himself. While promising empty promises with the 4 pillar agenda. That his government are planning to grow debt, you can wonder why, since the growing debt makes the state misuse the revenue, as already now the 20%. That is one fifth of the revenue going directly to pay debt. If that isn’t sounding worrying, then the state should find other ways to gain revenue and not take another Eurobond. Especially with the political climate and the Moody’s downgrade, who is a signal to the world that the premiums and points on the dollar will be worse.

However, Kenyatta isn’t pounding on the people. That is why the news of new Eurobond isn’t positive news for the Republic. Just read the report in Bloomberg, before collected information on the growing debt.

The ministry also chose Standard Chartered Bank Plc and Standard Bank Group’s Kenyan unit Stanbic Holdings to help with the sale, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the appointment hasn’t been made public yet. Treasury Secretary Henry Rotich didn’t answer two calls to his mobile Wednesday, while Treasury Director of Budget Geoffrey Mwau declined to comment when asked about planned sale on Tuesday. The Treasury will seek to raise $1.5 billion to $3 billion in bonds, with a tenor of up 15 years, according to two of the people. JPMorgan, Citigroup, Standard Chartered and Stanbic declined to comment” (Changole & Martin, 2018).

To take the numbers from Focus Economics who said the Public Debt of GDP in 2012 was 42%, the first year of Uhuru Kenyatta it become 44,5%. In 2014 it had been risen to 45,9% and after the first Eurobond, the rising debt in 2015 was 50,4% and in 2016 it became 53,5%. Therefore, the estimates of the new bonds will make it rise in 2018/19 until about 60%. This combined with the state will pay 20% interest of all revenue to the old debt in 2018. Those has also risen from 13,7% in 2012/13. That is why the state is paying more and more back to creditors in interest, than actually serving citizens with needed services.

The Eurobond scandal still looms over Jubilee’s government and remains an unresolved mystery in the Country’s treasury records. Corruption scandals also sift down to the County governments with many county governors performing badly in the last 5 years. Many of these leaders have also been accused of corruption and misappropriation of funds meant for development projects” (Konrad Adenauer Stifung, 2017).

You can wonder why the JP Morgan who was implicated in the first Eurobonds want to repeat a corrupt saga again and take responsibility for making the Jubilee able to eat directly from loans they have provided. So even as the elections of September 2017, the government still couldn’t verify the usage of the previous Eurobond. Therefore, the International Banks and Bilateral Monetary Organizations shouldn’t help this government, as they have triggered straight looting of the state. If it wasn’t so, then the state should have the invoices and proof of the used funds from the other loans. However, that is day dreaming and possibly dropped into the artificial dam around the home of Deputy President William Ruto.

For now, we can question the Kenyatta and the Jubilee government will to take up new loans. Because this will add debt, growing rates and because of the political climate, the cost of the loans and the interests rates. The presidency and the analysts at the Ministry of Finance should care and be worried, but I think they are eating of the plate too. So they don’t care about the next term or the future. Since they are making it worse for the coming generations to repay debts and they mature, and the state are losing points on the dollar. Because of the ruthless actions of the Jubilee against the opposition. That will also cost citizens, since they are now paying more for the second Eurobonds. Peace.

Reference:

Changole, Adelaide & Martin, Matthew – ‘Kenya to Pick Citi, JPMorgan to Advise on Eurobond Sale’ (07.02.2018) link: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-07/kenya-is-said-to-pick-citi-jpmorgan-to-advise-on-eurobond-sale

Konrad Adenauer Stiftung – ‘Reporting on Kenyan General Election 2017: A month to the polls’ (August, 2017)

Kenya: Press Statement by Hon. Alfred Kiptoo Keter with regard to his Unprocural Arrest on the 16th of February, 2018 (17.02.2018)

Ethiopia: The Draconian rules of the previous State of Emergency is back in full effect!

The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) are still doing whatever they can to quell and silence the provinces. This is just a few brief months since last State of Emergency. Clearly, the Oromo and Amhara provinces are a handful, but instead of listening and actually taking it into account. They are planning a hostile takeover and actually being an occupying force in its own nation. That is what the Aghazi Squad and mercenaries are doing in these regions, will not hit afar or even Tigray, it will be Oromo and Amhara, where the demonstrations, the shutdowns and the protests has been lit.

The Addis Ababa Central Government and the Council of Ministers are doing a fatal mistake, the demonstrations has shown effect already. They have gotten many of their leaders and people of impact in the community back again. These has been the voices of the opposition. Now they are tried again to be silenced by the leadership. With a force that will be bloody and will be direct countering the recent measures and trying to soften the approach. Instead, the Council of Ministers are now going into warfare in the regions instead of trying reconciliation.

Addis Ababa, February 17, 2018 (FBC) –The State of Emergency declared yesterday will remain in effect for six months, said Ethiopia’s Defense Minister Siraj Fegessa. In his press briefing today, the Minister said the the decree will be tabled to the House of People’s Representatives with 15 days. According to the Minister, the State of Emergency was needed to protect the constitution and constitutional order. He also dismissed as false rumors of military takeover of the government. Siraj said a Command Post has already been set up following the declaration of the State of Emergency by the Council of Ministers yesterday. The decree prohibits preparing, printing and circulating via media writings that could cause disturbance and suspicion among people as well as displaying or publicizing signs which could stir up violence. The decree allows law enforcement bodies to detain without court warrant any individual who orchestrated, led and organized as well as took part and suspected of taking part in criminal acts against the constitution and constitutional order. The individual will face justice after necessary investigation. In order to seize materials which were utilized or could be used to commit crimes, they could search any houses, areas and vehicles as well as stop, ask and search a person without a court warrant, the Minister noted” (Fana Broadcasting Company – ‘State of Emergency remains in effect for six months, says Defense Minister’ 17.02.2018).

So expect that the regions of Amhara and Oromia to be like warzones, where the police and military will look for the ones behind the protests. Be there and act like foreign mercenaries, not respecting and spreading fear. Being there arresting, detaining and flogging people on the street. They have already killed kids during religious festivals in the regions. I expect killings in Bahir Dar, Gondar/Gonder, Dire Dawa and Awasa. That the expected ones where the government forces will go all out, as they have done in the past.

They will look into civilians houses, does random raids and stop people on the street. As they are passing through, that is how they made many political prisoners. That is why there are already lingering 20,000 prisoners because of the latest State of Emergency from 2016 to 2017.

So when I saw what the Defence Minister Fegessa said what he ordered today, it was much more of the same of the previous ones. Taking away all freedoms, this will effect the regions where the protests been in. Not like the Council of Ministers will kill civilians in Aksum or Mek’ele. Neither directly in Gambela, unless Kenyan or South Sudanese Cattle Rustling between the porous borders there.

So now the state and the mercenaries will be back, their violations of the freedoms, liberty and personal rights will be on hold. Because the state fears their voices in the streets, they fear their feet bouncing on the roads and shutting down all the businesses. Their wise closing of the main roads and stopping transports into Addis Ababa. That has been efficient demonstrations by the protesters who has hurt EPRDF and the pride of TPLF.

However, let’s hope the TPLF will not get away with the violence, the desperation and the inception of possible destruction of themselves. Since they are not able to see, they are shooting themselves in the foot. Last time around, the arrests and the violence, ignited the demonstrations and protests. Therefore, it might grow even more and no amount of soldiers, mercenaries and hired guns cannot kill them all. They cannot detain them all.

The Ministers of the Council, the EPRDF and TPLF has really forgotten their place, now ushering more violence, instead of serving the regions. That is proven by this. Therefore, don’t expect the Oromo and Amhara to silence themselves over this. Last time there was burning foreign investments in the region. To hurt the buttom-line of the wealthy in Addis. That might happen again, while also prison unrest and big demos at Universities. There might roadblocks and other public display that show the force of the public. Even if the army will try to settle the score.

Let’s hope the EPRDF get some sense, though they are instead digging their own grave, while the protesters are already gaining momentum. Doesn’t seem like they are getting it. Peace.

Ethiopia: The Declared State of Emergency of 2018 isn’t the needed remedy, but a hostile TPLF takeover of the provinces!

After yesterdays abrupt resignation of Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn and the release of several prominent political prisoners, as even more were released today. The thoughts that the State and the Ethiopian People’s Democratic Revolutionary Force (EPRDF) and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) would counter the demonstrations with draconian laws seemed a bit foolish. This after three days of shutdown and off open in the streets demonstrations. Still, the TPLF, was already in the inner-works working on changes and making sure they can continue to muster force against dissidents.

That is why earlier today, this was reported:

The Tigray Central Committee has today announced a 43rd anniversary of the Battle of the Tigers. As a result of the weakness of the declaration of the TPLF leadership, we will renew our commitment to create a state of complete restoration of the problems and inconvenience of the people of the region. In a letter to a sister organization, he said: “We must jointly condemn enemy attacks on our organization and our country with the sole purpose of resolving the problem.” In a message sent to Ethiopians, the current wave of destruction against our people and our people will be eliminated in the EPRDF Rule” (Addis Gazetta, 16.02.2018).

So for the ones saying it was possible for a State of Emergency being reissued seemed likely after the TCC, as they wanted to send a message. Which would be stronger to take away again all sorts of ordinary activity, stop meetings and demonstrations, stop funerals and close shops. Because that is what the previous State of Emergency did to the public. They stopped people in roadblocks and made check-points, militarized Amhara and Oromia region. Clearly, the Tigray plans to do that again. Even as the demonstrations and the people are tired of being muffled with.

There it is with sadness, the Ethiopian Broadcasting Company (EBC) said this:

The state broadcaster said the Council declared the #StateofEmergency because it has become impossible to control violence including ethnic-related and lawlessness that is spreading wide throughout the country in various forms. But nothing is mentioned how for long” (Addis Standard, 16.02.2018).

Clearly, they are thinking of the actions done by the citizens in Oromo and Amhara, where the people have seen their relatives die on the streets or being detained in the thousands. This has been done on a scale that was insane during the previous State of Emergency. Proves that another one isn’t to create peace or genuine leadership. Its just for the TPLF to continue to control.

The State Controlled Media House Fana Broadcasting Company said this:

Addis Ababa, February 16, 2018 (FBC) –The Council of Ministers has declared a state of emergency effective from Friday, 16 February 2018 by adopting the decree providing for the emergency ruling. The Council of Ministers said the emergency rule is aimed at protecting the constitution and constitutional order, as well as ensuring security and stability of the country. Protecting freedom of movement and the rights of citizens to live wherever they choose as well as build assets, are also among the motives for the ruling. The Council in its press briefing noted that the violence that have been going on in some areas are undermining the security and stability of the country as well as the value of the people that promote peaceful coexistence. The violent activities have also led to ethnic based attacks which led to the displacement, death and injury of people, damage on property, and hindered investment. These violent activities are hurting the economy and put the peaceful and free movement of citizens under question. The Council said it is important to adopt the decree, as the public has requested the government for protection and the dangerous activities have continued to expand and extend in time” (Fana BC – ‘Ethiopia Declares State of Emergency’ 16.02.2018).

So the FANA is using the same rhetoric as the Tigray, the seemingly problematic affairs of the demonstrations, as they are blocking key roads and also shutting down business. This is hurting the economy and the life-line of the regime. That is why the definitions of them are practically the same. The TPLF and EPRDF thinks they can subdue and silence them through force, by either detaining even more now or use the military like last time. Occupy and destroy in 2018, like they did in parts of 2016 and 2017. It is not like they have stopped killing and not stopped arresting civilians who demonstrate against them. That is why there are numbers up to about 20,000 political prisoners from the previous State of Emergency. That is common folk and not the prestigious ones, which has been released during this week.

If you didn’t know, but now you do, as they proven time and time again. That the Tigray deserves more and has more say than the rest. There was even sources saying that this the parties of Oromo Peoples’ Democratic Organization (OPDO) and the Amhara National Democratic Movement (ANDM), who are members of the EPRDF. Where against the move of State of Emergency, not that it mattered. The TPLF had the final say and they we’re terrified of the surge of demonstrations and possible blockades of Addis Ababa. They cannot manage the possible resistance and movements on the rise, who are not fearing the Central Government, but actually and openly standing against it.

So if the EPRDF and TPLF are wise, they would do it differently, try another approach and actually listen to the grievances and actually patch the wounds. Instead they are pouring more salt in the wounds and hoping the citizens will give in. They are actually doing an unnecessary move and will trigger more of the dissidents to act upon the unwillingness of the state. It is like it cannot learn and understand the efforts being made to matter and to get their voice heard. Addis Ababa has acted provincial for so long and acted with colonization of the regions. That is why they are tired of being muffled with.

Now they have seen that the demonstrations has resulted in getting their leaders back. Their voices too, that is why the State should reconcile, not go back to the barricades; however that seems like the only thing they know how to do. Peace.

South Sudan: The Opposition Groups – HLRF of ARCSS – “Postion of the Opposition Group” (16.02.2018)

Ethiopia: Possible Ways Forward – “New State of Emergency VS National Reconciliation”

There is expected to be conflicting views and different ones, since there are many people and groups who feels left out. That is especially expected since the total control of Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Defence Force (EPRDF) are well-known. So the Central Government and the Addis Ababa has used all sort of tricks of oppression against the Oromo and Amhara regions. This has been done during the years of Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn, that is well-known, not that he had the power or be the mouthpiece of the oppression. So we can expect that the next few days and weeks will be rocky. There is talk by Addis Standard that there is a new order of State of Emergency in the works. Last time it created curfew and stopped most of all movement in the regions. It was a real draconian law in 2016 and it really showed the levels of oppression possible, as the arrests and detaining of opposition persisted. Even as several high-ranking individuals are released, there are still thousands of political prisoners who are kept by the government.

Therefore, these ideas that are out from Tigrai and Jawar, are important. Take a look.

The idea of TPLF:

The federal government keeps doing the same thing, putting out fire following the ruinous movements. The government never took any proactive actions to prevent these devastating actions from happening. When the state of emergency was in place the country was becoming peaceful, then the government lifted the state of emergency prematurely and we are back to square one. If the government is serious about maintaining peace and security in Ethiopia, they should reinstate the state of emergency throughout the country for three years. Meanwhile they should work to address all the issues raised by citizens and implement the so called deep renewal ideas announced after the meeting” (Tigrai Online, 2018).

The President’s view:

Short-note on Roadmap for Transition in Ethiopia

– Appoint Lemma Megersa Chairman of EPRDF and ( acting) PM immediately – Lemma should start immediately, I mean within days, negotiation with opposition groups i to establish agreeable roadmap and timetable towards election. While negotiation could take place behind close doors, regular updates should be given to public to boost moral and avoid further bloodshed. The roadmap and time table should include ways of bringing about national reconciliation and developing rules of the game for free, fair and competitive election. In this process avoid dealing with the usual fake opposition, religious and cultural leaders. Work with real and independent leaders with authentic support in their constituency. This negotiation and roadmap paving should be done alongside taking positive action that builds public confidence on seriousness of the process such us releasing all political prisoners. – This crisis presents with great opportunity and greater danger. While maintaining pressure on the regime every one of us in the public should exercise maximum constraint in our approach not to blow this thing up” (Jawar Mohammed, 15.02.2018).

I will say that Tigrai seems like a defense and apologetic for the dictatorship. They are more thinking of their values, than seeing the suffering of the regions they are occupying. That is an occupation when you send in the army and Aghazi squad to assassinate demonstrators and also try to kill the demonstrations. They haven’t been able to it, when the Oromo and Amhara opposition groups has gone together to silence their regions and put up roadblocks. That has hurt the economy and also been able to block the delivery of produce and products to Addis Ababa and Tigray.

Therefore, the Tigray page is really in defense mode, while Jawar who is the President. Shows more character and wish for change. The vitality of if the EPRDF and TPLF are putting forward a puppet Prime Minister and also a State of Emergency. Expect nationwide demonstrations. Expect that the people will access it as final blow to their acts impunity and injustice towards them.

The TPLF and EPRDF are really showing their blatant misunderstanding of the people, if they are trying to force themselves again. Like they did with the previous State of Emergency. If you think that will make it better, meaning that you are earning fortunes on the state paranoia and the total control of the public. The government who owns the people and they just have to submit to the orders of the state. That is how the Ethiopian government and Central Regime has acted for ages. Therefore, people has grown tired of that and the little group owning it all.

Let it be known, that it matters that Bekele Gerba and all the other big names who was freed this week after years in prison after fraudulent charges made by the state. That Jawar speaks of Lemma Mergesha can be different look, but will it be enough? I don’t know, but there been also speculated about Demeke Mekonnen Hassen and Michael-Gerbe Debretson, especially Demeke that he could be the next PM. That is since he is the Deputy today and if the TPLF would pick him. Then its a sign of another stooge, another mouthpiece and not strong leader to embrace all parts of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia.

I am not sure, but if the TPLF and EPRDF are putting forward a State of Emergency and appointing a puppet. Know that the shutdowns, the demonstrations will escalate and re-arresting the big-names will fire the people more up. Jawar and Gerba will ignite the Oromia even more, the Amhara will be a blaze. The Tigray will regret doing it, since they will shoot themselves in the foot. Instead of trying to fix the troubles they have created and the lingering injustice they have made.

The state can act wise, but also foolish. Their next move will be revealing. If they will listen to the minds of Jawar and try to reconcile… if they listen to Tigray, the state and the TPLF will loose it all. So we have to see if they are trying to go draconian or if they will try to give way for the demonstrators and actually listening to the people. Peace.

Reference:

Tigrai Online – ‘EPRDF has no choice but to declare state of emergency in Ethiopia’ (14.02.2018) link: http://www.tigraionline.com/articles/ethiopia-going-downhill.html

My letter to Kalonzo: “Are you planning to change alliance again?”

Dear Stephen Kalonzo-Musyoka!

You are the Wiper Democratic Movement (WDM) leader and a National Super Alliance (NASA) Flag-bearer, the initial Deputy of Raila Odinga. Who you we’re supposed to be sworn-in as People’s Deputy President at Uhuru Park on the 30th January. Something happen to you Kalonzo, I don’t know what, if you got the jitters and the stay-home syndrome. Certainly, something that cause defects and issues with your loyal allies.

On the 31th January, there was an incident of a stun-grenade, but then on the 3rd February it became a bomb in the compound of yours. There has also been some reports of bullets. But I don’t know how to believe, since it is fitting the paradigm of arresting a fellow NASA MP and also create fuzz around you. It was just so fitting that the Police did this and made an investigation. While you didn’t go to your own swearing-in with Baba.

So it is hard to know what goes through his mind, as his also spelling out comments attacking Baba and Swearing-In, while the other day saying that he will do it after consultations. Therefore, his leadership styles is finding the softest way to be in the opposition and be on the top. Without trying to make it cost or feel the pay of actually being part of organization. That is why he was bitching seconds after the swearing-in that he had lost the security detail.

That was because CS Fred Matiangi had criminalized the NASA on the 31st January. So it is not like Kalonzo is now a legal leader, not if the Order from the state is official. The reason for all the arrests and the all attacks on the judiciary. Therefore, so many other NASA MPs losing privileges and other positive measures as they we’re part of the political elite. He is a former Minister under Moi and Kibaki, also a founding member of Orange Democratic Movement. So he has followed that after falling out with Kenyatta and Ruto as the talks of 2012 went wrong.

Because you Kalonzo has in the past jumped between KANU, Liberal Democratic Party and the NARC Coalition of Kibaki. So he has shown disloyalty to gain popularity and get leadership roles in all his career. So, you have been a MP and leader who has joined and shifted camp after who you have benefited from. That you have been in both CORD and NASA this long is special for being you. That Wiper Democratic Movement has been part of Odinga’s coalition is a miracle. Since you have in the past jumped ship, especially since you we’re able to find the most popular and biggest leader.

Now you have fallen twice and haven’t won. You haven’t gotten the fair piece of the trick. You have risked it all on Odinga and he hasn’t delivered. Therefore, you have started to be unsure and weak, because you have been a MP for years and also Minister under Moi and Kibaki. That is why you went from being part of ODM to suddenly becoming VP for Kibaki, because you couldn’t block Odinga back then. That was all in 2007 and that is only a decade ago.

So if he would change alliance or trying to find a way out of this and not pay the price of being in resistance against the government. That would seem possible, since you are distancing yourself from the alliance and making yourself a target for the Kamba Youth and also Kenyans in general. Kalonzo, you could have been part of a historical effort to stop the impunity and injustice made Jubilee. Instead your trading your cards for uncertainty. Unless you already traded it by secret offerings with Jubilee, like the ones Thirdway Alliance did to get cars before the October 26th 2017?

Is that what your up to?

Do you think you can go away from Odinga a second time and to prepare for 2022. Think people will forgive you for your disloyalty and your weak response, while people protesting are eating tear-gas and getting beaten by the police.

Kalonzo, what is your plan is it to leave Odinga and join in with Ruto and Kenyatta? What is your move, since you seem like a lost dog and someone who doesn’t know how to carry themselves?

Kalonzo, I would wish you would shown loyalty, but you have changed sides in the past and records usually doesn’t lie. Peace.

South Sudan: Civil Society Delegates – “Citizen’s Appeal for Peace at the High-Level Revitalization Forum” (15.02.2018)

Ethiopia: The sudden resignation of PM Hailemariam Desalegn, opens up the question for – “Who becomes the next PM?”

Just as the Zone 9, journalist Esikinder Nega and Oromo Federal Congress leader Bekele Gerba has finally been released from prison. Just as this is happening and the three day shutdown of Oromia. As the dozens of political prisoners are still lingering in jail and the TPLF infused government under Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn resigned on national TV today.

We can wonder what is happening and what is the motivation for the change, since the TPLF and the EPRDF under Meles Zenawi was relentless and oppressive, it has been so under this PM too. No denying that and therefore, the civil unrest, that even led to the State of Emergency last year. With all the arrests, detentions and illegal activity from the state to control the regions, where the people are rising up against the minority government in Addis Ababa.

That the Aghazi Squad and the military offensive in the regions hasn’t hurt the drive to demonstrate. Shows the encouragement and the tiredness of the Central Government. That they have taken it too far over time and not been servicing the area. Which is why the roadblocks and closing the delivery of produce to Addis Ababa has hurt the bottom-line for the regime.

I am starting to wonder who will follow the PM and get both his position, but also the chairmanship of TPLF. Because both are important leadership roles in Ethiopia. We can wonder what sort of negotiations and ambition, which is within the Executive Committee of the EPRDF and TPLF. Also, who wants to come from the Central Committee as well.

Seyoum Mesfin might have his ideas, but the bridges are burning, while the Oromo and Amhara protests are bearing fruits. They are hurting the Central Government and their leverage. They cannot just punish and pursuit violence to silence them. The protests and closing of business, the roadblocks and the University uprisings shows the government who are in charge. This is something they cannot deny.

However, I wonder who will take charge and become the next leader. Since PM Hailemariam Desalegn has now suddenly stepped down. We can wonder who pulls the strings and why it happens now after three excessive days of demonstrations and big political prisoners freed. This is all good news, but how good. What is the next move and when will the thousands of prisoners become free from the shacles they are in?

We have to ask and wonder. It is important and proves the power of the Oromia province and Amhara, as they have used their protest to show Addis that they matter. In addition, they do. No one can say otherwise. Demeke Mekonnen Hassen are expected to follow him, but that is surely depending on the CC and EC decisions in the coming days. Also, Michael-Gerbe Debretson, who also possible take his place, even if the odds are bigger on Demeke, then on Michael-Gebre.

So who knows, it is just speculations, but there will be changes and we can wonder how different the new leadership will be compared to the old. Will it be positive reforms or even more oppressive? Will the TPLF listen to other voices or will they be behind the barricades throwing grenades?

We can wonder, but we do know that the PM is important for how the leadership will act towards its citizens. We have seen the change from Zenawi to Hailemariam. It hasn’t been the same, therefore, the next one will be vital for either more protest or more reforms. Peace.

Kenya: Court Ruling on the Deportation of Canadian Citizen Mr. Miguna Miguna (15.02.2018)