
Ethiopian to Resume Flights to Asmara (10.07.2018)



Today is yet another historical day on the Horn of Africa. Just as the yesterday meeting was big enough. There was no paperwork and just a touch of hope, today, the Eritrean government and the Ethiopian government have signed peaceful declaration. They have declared peace. The war started on the May 6th 1998 is officially over now at the 9th July 2018. That is 20 years of warfare, cease-fires and skirmishes. Hopefully, that both parties can follow the agreement and enrich them, as the brotherhood can now grow together, instead of fighting them.
Today is a great day.
“The governments of Ethiopia and Eritrea have reached the following joint agreement which reflects the desires and aspirations of their peoples:-
1. The state of war between Ethiopia and Eritrea has come to an end. A new era of peace and friendship has been opened.
2. The two governments will endeavor to forge intimate political, economic, social, cultural and security cooperation that serves and advances the vital interests of their peoples;
3. Transport, trade and communications links between the two countries will resume; diplomatic ties and activities will restart;
4. The decision on the boundary between the two countries will be implemented.
5. Both countries will jointly endeavor to ensure regional peace, development and cooperation.
Both governments express their gratitude to all friends of Eritrea and Ethiopia and call on them to redouble their solidarity and support” (Shabait.com – ‘Joint Declaration of Peace and Friendship between Eritrea and Ethiopia’ 09.07.2018).
Now, the diplomacy and the borders are opened, the countries has over night nearly decided to change their ways. That Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed Ali and President Isaias Afwerki have suddenly changed the structure. 20 years of fighting and bickering are maybe over. Especially if the Algiers Agreement is followed now, that Ethiopia is giving up Badme, That would be a humiliating thing to do for the TPLF. Clearly, the PM are using his powers for good.
The Eritrean government has gotten a lot and also a closer partner, if they both are planning to hold this declaration and honor it.
Let’s hope that this is the real step towards peace and development between the brothers. Not more warfare and more skirmishes, create trust and build on the richness of both nations. Where the can make the Horn Peaceful, nation by nation and conflict by conflict. That Eritrea and Ethiopia are declaring peace, is a great news.
We can hope this will be manifested, that we will see Badme returned to Eritrea and that the militarized becomes commercial customs border and not closed. This might open Eritrea up and make more information leak not only into Ethiopia, but the world as whole. So the reality of the dictatorship comes more into the light. But the last piece, is only something we can hope is reaction and a bonus for the peace between the brothers of Eritrea and Ethiopia.
This is another historical day in our life-time. That is worth celebrating. Cheers! Peace.





JUL/08/2018, The following is the response of the South Sudan Opposition Alliance, (SSOA).
1.Demilitarization of Civilian Centres (as per Para 1.11.4)
1.1. The parties agree principally to demilitarize all of the following:
1. The National Capital city, Juba, State Capitals and civilian populated areas.
2. Schools, Hospitals, Business Centers, Places of worship, Houses, IDP Camps, Villages, and other civilian populated areas must be free of all military presence during the pre-transitional period.
3. Livelihood areas, e.g Roads, Water passages, Farms, Grazing areas.
The demilitarization process shall be accomplished within the Pre-transitional period to create a conducive atmosphere for confidence building, repatriation of refugees and return of IDPs in order to allow humanitarian service delivery to the affected population.
2.Composition of the Joint Transitional Security Committee (as per Para 5.12)
2.1 In the spirit of inclusivity, the Joint Transitional Security committee
shall be composed as follows:
i. TGoNU-(3 members)
ii. SPLM–IO-(3)
iii.SSOA–(3)
iv. IGAD–(1)
v. UNMISS-(1)
vi. AU-(1)
vii.TROIKA-(1)
2.2 Decisions of these committees shall be taken by consensus.
3. Time frame of Forces Unification (as per Para 7.5)
3.1 The Joint Unified Army/Joint Unified National Security shall be established within the Pre-transitional period and shall be tasked with:
—- Protection of national borders.
—- Protection of Public installations.
3.2 The functions of the Joint National security shall be limited to data collection, analysis and reporting the product to the relevant authorities.
3.3 A nucleus of Joint Police and other Security Forces shall be established within the Pre-transitional period and shall be tasked with the Protection of civilians and their properties.
3.4 The Transitional period shall begin with joint unified forces, which the parties shall agree on its size guided by the principles of equal representation of states/Counties and diversity of our national
4. Third proposal:
In the event that the second proposal is objected to, it is further proposed that equal numbers of the Opposition and the TGoNU forces be deployed as Joint Unified Forces to carry out the function as in the Article 4.5 above.
5. Operationalization of the Khartoum Declaration of Agreement (KDA).
The Parties shall recommit to the Agreement on the Cessation of Hostilities, Protection of Civilians and Humanitarian Access (2017) and shall implement the monitoring mechanisms provided for in the Khartoum Declaration of Agreement (KDA) signed on 27th June 2018 as follows:
5.1 Re-notification of forces by parities leadership including the issuing of orders to cease military operations, and enforce the freezing of forces in their locations.
5.2 Declaration of dispositions and locations of forces not previously
declared on the 21st December 2017 (CoH).
5.3 Disengagement and separation of forces in close proximity as per priorities presented by CTSAMM.
5.4 Establishment of buffer zones and lines of control so as to delimit possible aggression, unexpected clashes and to allow access and delivery of humanitarian assistance and free movement of civilians.
5.5 Confirm and recommit to the mandate given to CTSAMM and enforce the restructuring thereof immediately. END



I wonder what really came out of the Entebbe State House meeting between President Salva Kiir Mayardit, SPLM-IO Chairman Dr. Riek Machar, Sudan President Omar Al-Bashir and President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni yesterday.
Why I wonder? There a no communique, no report or nothing official signed by the gentlemen who had photo-ops and more possible PR stunts from the State House. Because, there has been recently one Khartoum Declaration on the 27th June 2018 between these gentlemen and also the ‘Agreement on Outstanding Issues of Responsibility Sharing’ from the 5th July 2018, also from Khartoum. Not to forget the 25th June 2018 ‘Points of Framework Agreement’, which was also signed. They we’re built on the same premise and continues the pathway of the IGAD and stakeholders to find a middle-ground for ceasing of fire between them. That as well, as the need for peace to resume the production of petroleum. Certainly, by all of this the Republic of Sudan is getting a higher stake and more control of the oil-rich fields of South Sudan. Which is weird, as the independence was supposed to get control of that from Khartoum. That is why the whole month of smiles and holding hands seems strange from the points of independence, but also how to be sovereign from Khartoum for the Juba Administration.
Maybe, that is the reason for nothing coming from the continuation of dialogue between the parties, between the rebels and the government. They have all been together, followed the High-Level Revitalized Forum (HLRF) Negotiations, which was based by the IGAD and trying to figure out how to get relief and find ways to bring life back to the ‘Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan’ agreed upon in 17th August 2015. This agreement and the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU), haven’t brought stability and just made sure the War-Lords has gone back to the fields shooting at each other, instead of finding reasonable ways of governing.
That is why the new meetings and the new dialogue is healthy for these leaders, however, you should be skeptical for the timing and the reason. As Sudan is flat-broke and has had both price-hikes and bread-strikes, while South Sudan is tinkering on rising inflation, combined with empty state-coffers. They both does this to get political goodwill and hopefully get new funds to eat. That is what it seems like, also making sure the war-lords can reload before finding time to blast the heads of their enemies. The hardships and these men have usually waited for their enemies to slip, before find new ways of trying to get rid of them.
It is nice that they have all these deals between the last few weeks, but the reality is that there are some underlining concern. It is still just on paper and not in the field. There have already been violations from the armies and militias. There have already been more casualties since the cease-fire of 31st June, into the 1st July 2018.
I am just awaiting it blow, when Kiir or Machar lose face, when one of them find out how the Sudan are using them as pawns to get control of the petroleum industry. Without even taking the territory, he has already gotten the golden egg without producing gold. The Khartoum government should be joyful, they have gotten a bargain and the Juba are being outplayed by their own will to fight each other for supremacy, instead of building a Republic.
Therefore, I am hopeful, but not naive. There are usually something underlining this sort of activity, especially from men like these. These men want power and control, they are not the types willing to give way. They are doing it because they have too or if they are doing it get more donor funds. Certainly, they would not challenge their own role or space without getting a cut.
I don’t believe that, do you?
Peace.

Today, is a historical day, in the terms that the Ethiopian Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed Ali visited the Eritrean capital Asmara and had talks with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. The last time an Ethiopian delegation was in Asmara must have been before the 2 year between the parties that lasted from May 6th 1998 ended on the 12th December 2000. There been skirmishes and smaller firing between the nations on the borders. As the state hasn’t been as friendly and even had interests of securing a friendship.
Therefore, that the Eritrean delegation was in Addis Ababa in June 2018, was already a show of a new direction, as well as the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Defense Force (EPRDF) was talking about respecting the Algiers Agreement in regards of Eritrea. That has already shown positive directions, as the annexed land and the questionable boarder areas. Would go to their rightful owners and to the ones that has fought bravely for that land.
For now that is just dreams for the Horn of Africa, however, just the pictures of the Ethiopian PM together with the Eritrean President is a good look. Though, this is just the beginning. We should not jump the gun and think this is the end, there will be more twists and turns. As the uncertainty of what the Ethiopian leadership wants, if the Council of Ministers and the Parliament will enact to deliver back Badme and the questionable land back to Eritrea. If both parties will demilitarize this zone, to show as token of peace. Than, we are talking of a real progress between the nations.
That sort of act will not be over just sharing a few cups of tea and enjoy joyful celebration in the streets of Asmara. There needs more dialogue and negotiations, even if the Eritrean has told their stance. However, the Ethiopian also want their bargain. Who knows what that will be and what the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) want, as they would loose the land they started fighting over for over 20 years ago.
These talks today might be positive, the gesture of the PM to travel and meet the President is grand step for normalization of the nations, but until there is respect and works combined towards peace. There is uncertainty, as the military is still on stand-by on both sides.
It is a special occasion today, but I will not celebrate or be to joyful, until real progress is signed and respected by both parties. The PM still have to walk sideways with the TPLF. Who knows how they will react or let this play out. Because I cannot trust the TPLF or their ways, I am also skeptic about Afwerki, as his government is controlled by him and his tyranny. It is not like Eritrea is a peaceful utopia. Than, this would have made sense from the get-go and that the Ethiopian government was a fruitful democracy, which it is not.
There are many hurdles for both parties, but this is a good token of good faith and trying to establish need channels of communications and ways out of a stalemate between the parties. However, the narrow escape isn’t there yet.
But by the ways things are moving, it might be there in the near and not to distant future. Peace.